EGY Stock Analysis: Vaalco Energy | NYSE

Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 684m USD | 12M Return: 51.8% | US91851C2017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids, Exploration
Total Rating 38
Safety 44
Buy Signal -0.84
Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: -3.4
Market Cap: 684M
Avg Turnover: 7.89M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility46.3%
VaR 5th Pctl7.79%
VaR vs Median2.25%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.05
Rel. Str. IBD74.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group41.2 pctl
Character TTM
Beta0.287
Beta Downside0.840
Hurst Exponent0.497
Choppyness61.3%
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD56.56%
CAGR/Max DD0.29
CAGR/Mean DD0.66
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of EGY over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.53, "2021-12": 0.58, "2022-03": 0.2, "2022-06": 0.25, "2022-09": 0.56, "2022-12": 0.17, "2023-03": 0.07, "2023-06": 0.11, "2023-09": 0.07, "2023-12": 0.37, "2024-03": 0.06, "2024-06": 0.22, "2024-09": 0.08, "2024-12": 0.07, "2025-03": 0.06, "2025-06": 0.02, "2025-09": -0.1, "2025-12": -0.02, "2026-03": -0.45, "2026-06": 0.02,
Last SUE: -0.11
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of EGY over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 63.953, 2021-12: 65.197, 2022-03: 77.598, 2022-06: 127.514, 2022-09: 90.021, 2022-12: 0.13, 2023-03: 80.403, 2023-06: 150.803, 2023-09: 116.269, 2023-12: 149.154, 2024-03: 100.155, 2024-06: 116.778, 2024-09: 140.334, 2024-12: 121.721, 2025-03: 110.329, 2025-06: 128.773, 2025-09: 61.007, 2025-12: 91.042, 2026-03: 62.599, 2026-06: 135.166,
Rev. CAGR: -7.89%
Rev. Trend: -45.7%
Last SUE: 0.85
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
High Debt While Negative Cash Flow
Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +16.5% 20
Feb +3.9% 23
Mar -1.1% 2
Apr +0.1% 2
May +4.1% 6
Jun +5.5% 16
Jul +2.2% 20
Aug -7.3% 28
Sep +5.0% 6
Oct -3.9% 38
Nov -2.4% 14
Dec -2.3% 16

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: EGY Vaalco Energy

VAALCO Energy, Inc. is an independent upstream energy company that acquires, explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates across a geographically diversified portfolio spanning West Africa, North Africa, and North America, with key assets including a 58.8% operated interest in the Etame Marin block offshore Gabon, 100% interest in concessions in Egypts Eastern and Western Deserts, a 27.4% non-operated interest in the deepwater Baobab field offshore Cote dIvoire, Cardium light oil and Mannville liquids-rich gas assets in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, and a 60% working interest in an undeveloped portion of block P offshore Equatorial Guinea. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

As a small-cap independent in the oil and gas exploration and production sector, VAALCO focuses exclusively on upstream activities without downstream refining or marketing operations. Its reliance on production sharing contracts (PSCs) in countries like Gabon is typical of operators in West Africa, where host governments typically retain ownership of the underlying hydrocarbons while the company recovers costs and earns a share of production.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Gabon Etame offshore production drives majority of revenue
  • Egypt Western Desert oil output supports cash flow margins
  • Brent crude price swings dominate quarterly earnings volatility
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: -108.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.26 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -35.22 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -32.88% < 20% (prev 12.53%; Δ -45.41% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 156.9m > Net Income -108.8m
Net Debt (296.8m) to EBITDA (13.7m): 21.70 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.44 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.6m) vs 12m ago 0.66% < -2%
Gross Margin: 37.60% > 18% (prev 32.42%; Δ 5.19% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 36.18% > 50% (prev 51.94%; Δ -15.75% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -10.22 > 6 (EBIT TTM -90.2m / Interest Expense TTM 8.83m)
Altman Z'' -0.47
A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 88.9m - Total Current Liabilities 203.9m) / Total Assets 968.6m
B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 77.2m / Total Assets 968.6m)
C: -0.09 (EBIT TTM -90.2m / Avg Total Assets 966.7m)
D: 0.65 (Book Value of Equity 380.3m / Total Liabilities 588.2m)
Altman-Z'' = -0.47 = B
Beneish M -3.75
DSRI: 0.32 (Receivables 30.4m/137.2m, Revenue 349.8m/501.2m)
GMI: 0.86 (GM 32.42% / 37.60%)
AQI: 1.35 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.07)
SGI: 0.70 (Revenue 349.8m / 501.2m)
TATA: -0.27 (NI -108.8m - CFO 156.9m) / TA 968.6m)
Beneish M = -3.75 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of EGY shares?

As of November 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.61 with a total of 1,090,644 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.21%, over one month by -3.11%, over three months by +7.57% and over the past year by +51.80%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.30 (which is 5.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is EGY a buy, sell or hold?

Vaalco Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy EGY.

  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the EGY price?
Analysts Target Price 10.2 81.8%
Vaalco Energy (EGY) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 28 October 2026
Market Cap USD = 683.7m (683.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 6.5617
P/S = 1.9546
P/B = 1.8143
P/EG = 3.9821
Revenue TTM = 349.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -90.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 177.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 65.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 327.2m USD (corrected: LT Debt 177.0m + ST Debt 65.5m) + Leases 84.8m
Net Debt = 296.8m USD (calculated: Debt 327.2m - CCE 30.4m)
Enterprise Value = 980.6m USD (683.7m + Debt 327.2m - CCE 30.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -10.22 (Ebit TTM -90.2m / Interest Expense TTM 8.83m)
EV/FCF = -3.90x (Enterprise Value 980.6m / FCF TTM -251.3m)
FCF Yield = -25.62% (FCF TTM -251.3m / Enterprise Value 980.6m)
FCF Margin = -71.83% (FCF TTM -251.3m / Revenue TTM 349.8m)
Net Margin = -31.11% (Net Income TTM -108.8m / Revenue TTM 349.8m)
Gross Margin = 37.60% ((Revenue TTM 349.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 218.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.36% (prev -10.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 980.6m / Total Assets 968.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.70% (Interest Expense 8.83m / Debt 327.2m)
Taxrate = 28.35% (16.8m / 59.2m)
NOPAT = -64.6m (EBIT -90.2m * (1 - 28.35%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.44 (Total Current Assets 88.9m / Total Current Liabilities 203.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.86 (Debt 327.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 380.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 21.70 (Net Debt 296.8m / EBITDA 13.7m)
 Debt / FCF = -1.18 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 296.8m / FCF TTM -251.3m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 418.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -11.26% (Net Income -108.8m / Total Assets 968.6m)
RoE = -25.99% (Net Income TTM -108.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 418.7m)
RoCE = -15.14% (EBIT -90.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 418.7m + L.T.Debt 177.0m))
 RoIC = -7.95% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -64.6m / Invested Capital 812.6m)
 WACC = 5.10% (E(683.7m)/V(1.01b) * Re(6.61%) + D(327.2m)/V(1.01b) * Rd(2.70%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 6.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 47.17 | Cagr: 0.04%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -251.3m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -45.70 | Revenue CAGR: -7.89% | SUE: 0.85 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-42.86% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.50 | Chg30d=-198.87% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-1157.5% | GrowthRev=+24.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=-31.88% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+125.2% | GrowthRev=+14.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=0, down=0)