(EGY) Vaalco Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids
EGY EPS (Earnings per Share)
EGY Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 70.2% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.55 |
| Alpha | -39.46 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.443 |
| Beta | 0.925 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 56.56% |
| Mean DD | 25.66% |
Description: EGY Vaalco Energy October 25, 2025
VAALCO Energy, Inc. (NYSE: EGY) is an independent upstream company focused on acquiring, exploring, developing, and producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural-gas liquids across a diversified geographic portfolio that includes offshore West Africa (Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea), on-shore Egypt, and on-shore Canada.
The firm holds a 58.8 % working interest in the Etame Production Sharing Contract (≈46,200 gross acres) offshore Gabon, a 100 % interest in Egypt’s Eastern Desert concessions (≈45,067 acres) and Western Desert South Ghazalat concession (≈7,340 acres), a 27.4 % non-operated stake in the deep-water Baobab field (Block CI-40) offshore Côte d’Ivoire, and Canadian Cardium/Mannville assets (≈49,100 gross acres developed + 28,900 gross acres undeveloped) near Calgary. It also retains a 60 % working interest in an undeveloped offshore block P in Equatorial Guinea.
Key operational metrics from the most recent 2023 filing show average net production of roughly 30 kboe/d, operating cash flow of $150 million, and a net debt-to-cash-flow ratio of about 1.2×, indicating modest leverage relative to cash generation. The company’s exposure to West-African political risk is partially offset by long-term production-sharing contracts that provide stable fiscal terms, while its Canadian light-oil portfolio benefits from recent price spreads between WTI and Brent that have widened to > $5 per barrel.
Sector-wide drivers that will likely influence EGY’s performance include OPEC+ output decisions, which set the baseline crude price floor, and the accelerating global demand for natural-gas liquids (NGLs) as feedstock for petrochemical growth-both of which could improve margins if price differentials remain favorable.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of EGY’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find the ValueRay platform useful.
EGY Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 406m |
| Sub-Industry | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
| IPO / Inception | 1993-01-29 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -33.46% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.67 of 5 |
EGY Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.38% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 28.74% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 38.68% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 1.7% |
EGY Growth Ratios
| CAGR | -5.02% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.09 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.20 |
| Current Volume | 568.4k |
| Average Volume | 652.9k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (38.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 28.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -3.98pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 13.38% (prev 6.36%; Δ 7.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 143.4m > Net Income 38.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (67.2m) to EBITDA (259.8m) ratio: 0.26 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.39 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (103.9m) change vs 12m ago 0.19% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 34.08% (prev 40.54%; Δ -6.46pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 49.86% (prev 53.47%; Δ -3.61pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 21.12 (EBITDA TTM 259.8m / Interest Expense TTM 5.55m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.50
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 223.7m - Total Current Liabilities 160.9m) / Total Assets 964.9m |
| (B) 0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 212.7m / Total Assets 964.9m |
| (C) 0.12 = EBIT TTM 117.1m / Avg Total Assets 941.1m |
| (D) 0.50 = Book Value of Equity 225.0m / Total Liabilities 453.4m |
| Total Rating: 2.50 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 69.02
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt = -0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.47% = 4.24 |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.84% = 2.21 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.30 = 2.46 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.26 = 2.45 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.20)% = 6.50 |
| 7. RoE 7.68% = 0.64 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 41.93% = 3.14 |
| 9. EPS Trend -42.28% = -2.11 |
What is the price of EGY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.77%, over one month by +0.00%, over three months by +10.68% and over the past year by -24.53%.
Is Vaalco Energy a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of EGY is around 3.74 USD . This means that EGY is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -4.59%.
Is EGY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the EGY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10 | 155.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 10 | 155.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.1 | 5.1% |
EGY Fundamental Data Overview November 04, 2025
P/E Trailing = 10.5135
P/E Forward = 15.6006
P/S = 0.8642
P/B = 0.7948
P/EG = 2.62
Beta = 0.925
Revenue TTM = 469.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 117.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 259.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 60.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 152.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 67.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 489.8m USD (405.6m + Debt 152.1m - CCE 67.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 21.12 (Ebit TTM 117.1m / Interest Expense TTM 5.55m)
FCF Yield = 8.47% (FCF TTM 41.5m / Enterprise Value 489.8m)
FCF Margin = 8.84% (FCF TTM 41.5m / Revenue TTM 469.3m)
Net Margin = 8.26% (Net Income TTM 38.8m / Revenue TTM 469.3m)
Gross Margin = 34.08% ((Revenue TTM 469.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 309.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.53% (prev 31.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.51 (Enterprise Value 489.8m / Total Assets 964.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.69% (Interest Expense 2.57m / Debt 152.1m)
Taxrate = 45.45% (6.98m / 15.4m)
NOPAT = 63.9m (EBIT 117.1m * (1 - 45.45%))
Current Ratio = 1.39 (Total Current Assets 223.7m / Total Current Liabilities 160.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 152.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 511.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.26 (Net Debt 67.2m / EBITDA 259.8m)
Debt / FCF = 1.62 (Net Debt 67.2m / FCF TTM 41.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 504.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.02% (Net Income 38.8m / Total Assets 964.9m)
RoE = 7.68% (Net Income TTM 38.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 504.6m)
RoCE = 20.75% (EBIT 117.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 504.6m + L.T.Debt 60.0m))
RoIC = 12.30% (NOPAT 63.9m / Invested Capital 519.6m)
WACC = 7.10% (E(405.6m)/V(557.7m) * Re(9.42%) + D(152.1m)/V(557.7m) * Rd(1.69%) * (1-Tc(0.45)))
Discount Rate = 9.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.55%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.90% ; FCFE base≈55.3m ; Y1≈43.8m ; Y5≈29.1m
Fair Price DCF = 4.14 (DCF Value 431.7m / Shares Outstanding 104.3m; 5y FCF grow -24.91% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -42.28 | EPS CAGR: -69.11% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 41.93 | Revenue CAGR: 2.71% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for EGY Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle