(ERJ) Embraer - Ratings and Ratios
Commercial Jets, Military Aircraft, Executive Jets, Services, eVTOL
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.91% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.15% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | % |
| Payout Consistency | 54.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 2.6% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 59.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.16% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.33 |
| Alpha | 60.88 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.00 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.695 |
| Beta | 0.728 |
| Beta Downside | 1.147 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.33% |
| Mean DD | 7.46% |
| Median DD | 6.26% |
Description: ERJ Embraer October 31, 2025
Embraer S.A. (NYSE: ERJ) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells aircraft and related systems across five operating segments: Commercial Aviation (regional and narrow-body jets), Defense & Security (military aircraft, radars, and C4ISR solutions), Executive Aviation (luxury business jets), Services & Support (maintenance, training, and field support), and “Other” (structural parts, agricultural aircraft, eVTOL development, electrical propulsion, cybersecurity, and ancillary services such as leasing and IT consulting). The company, founded in 1969 and headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, rebranded from Embraer-Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica in 2010.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023) include total revenue of roughly $5.0 billion, a commercial-jet backlog of about $30 billion (≈ 6 years of sales), and an operating margin of 7 % after a 2022 restructuring. The commercial segment benefits from a projected 4 % CAGR in regional jet demand driven by emerging-market fleet renewal, while the defense unit secured a $1.2 billion contract for C4ISR upgrades in Latin America, underscoring exposure to sovereign-budget cycles. In the eVTOL space, Embraer’s Eve division reported a 45 % YoY increase in pre-orders for its cargo-focused aircraft, reflecting broader urban-air-mobility growth expectations of 15 % per annum through 2035.
For a data-rich, quantitative deep-dive on Embraer’s valuation drivers and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a ready-made model you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income (533.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.12b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.46 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 45.52pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 11.07% (prev 38.35%; Δ -27.29pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.50 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.24b > Net Income 533.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.32b) to EBITDA (2.40b) ratio: 0.55 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.43 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (183.4m) change vs 12m ago -0.14% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 18.38% (prev 17.55%; Δ 0.83pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 154.5% (prev 51.91%; Δ 102.6pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 6.65 (EBITDA TTM 2.40b / Interest Expense TTM 311.4m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.75
| (A) 0.17 = (Total Current Assets 6.85b - Total Current Liabilities 4.78b) / Total Assets 12.53b |
| (B) 0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 294.3m / Total Assets 12.53b |
| (C) 0.17 = EBIT TTM 2.07b / Avg Total Assets 12.10b |
| (D) 0.42 = Book Value of Equity 3.61b / Total Liabilities 8.59b |
| Total Rating: 2.75 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 88.59
| 1. Piotroski 8.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.63% |
| 3. FCF Margin 31.15% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.67 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.55 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 37.27)% |
| 7. RoE 7.32% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 49.95% |
| 9. EPS Trend 47.34% |
What is the price of ERJ shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.52%, over one month by +0.55%, over three months by +11.72% and over the past year by +74.43%.
Is ERJ a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the ERJ price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 68.5 | 7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 68.5 | 7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 109.3 | 70.7% |
ERJ Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
P/E Trailing = 37.7076
P/E Forward = 21.5054
P/S = 0.3098
P/B = 3.1511
P/EG = 1.19
Beta = 0.921
Revenue TTM = 18.70b BRL
EBIT TTM = 2.07b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 2.40b BRL
Long Term Debt = 2.38b BRL (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 119.9m BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.39b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.32b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 67.44b BRL (66.82b + Debt 2.39b - CCE 1.76b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.65 (Ebit TTM 2.07b / Interest Expense TTM 311.4m)
FCF Yield = 8.63% (FCF TTM 5.82b / Enterprise Value 67.44b)
FCF Margin = 31.15% (FCF TTM 5.82b / Revenue TTM 18.70b)
Net Margin = 2.85% (Net Income TTM 533.2m / Revenue TTM 18.70b)
Gross Margin = 18.38% ((Revenue TTM 18.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 15.26b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.19% (prev 19.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.38 (Enterprise Value 67.44b / Total Assets 12.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.01% (Interest Expense 48.0m / Debt 2.39b)
Taxrate = -20.35% (negative due to tax credits) (-21.8m / 107.2m)
NOPAT = 2.49b (EBIT 2.07b * (1 - -20.35%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.43 (Total Current Assets 6.85b / Total Current Liabilities 4.78b)
Debt / Equity = 0.67 (Debt 2.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.57b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.55 (Net Debt 1.32b / EBITDA 2.40b)
Debt / FCF = 0.23 (Net Debt 1.32b / FCF TTM 5.82b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.26% (Net Income 533.2m / Total Assets 12.53b)
RoE = 7.32% (Net Income TTM 533.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.28b)
RoCE = 21.44% (EBIT 2.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.28b + L.T.Debt 2.38b))
RoIC = 45.76% (NOPAT 2.49b / Invested Capital 5.45b)
WACC = 8.48% (E(66.82b)/V(69.20b) * Re(8.70%) + D(2.39b)/V(69.20b) * Rd(2.01%) * (1-Tc(-0.20)))
Discount Rate = 8.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.07%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.08% ; FCFE base≈3.54b ; Y1≈3.82b ; Y5≈4.70b
Fair Price DCF = 396.3 (DCF Value 72.69b / Shares Outstanding 183.4m; 5y FCF grow 8.81% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 47.34 | EPS CAGR: 20.08% | SUE: 0.50 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 49.95 | Revenue CAGR: 12.69% | SUE: 1.22 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=+0.084 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.53 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+94.5% | Growth Revenue=+12.8%
Additional Sources for ERJ Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle