ESRT Stock Analysis: Empire State Realty Trust | NYSE
REIT - Diversified | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.696m USD | 12M Return: -25.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.1M
EPS Trend: -90.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ESRT) is a New York City-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a portfolio of office, retail, and multifamily properties. Its flagship asset is the Empire State Building, which features the well-known Observatory attraction. The company is headquartered in New York and was established in 2011, with its IPO in October 2013.
As of March 31, 2026, ESRTs portfolio consists of approximately 8.0 million rentable square feet of office space, 0.8 million rentable square feet of retail space, and 743 residential units. The company is recognized for its focus on energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality across its properties.
As a diversified REIT, ESRT generates revenue through a mix of office and retail leasing, residential rentals, and Observatory operations, providing multiple income streams from a geographically concentrated asset base. REITs typically benefit from a tax structure that requires distribution of the majority of taxable income to shareholders, making dividend yield a common consideration for investors in this sector.
- Manhattan office occupancy recovery drives leasing revenue growth
- Empire State Observatory tourism rebound lifts segment margins
- Interest rate cuts reduce borrowing costs and boost FFO
- NYC office competition and high vacancy pressure rental rates
| Net Income: 39.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.72% < 20% (prev 50.01%; Δ -33.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 234.8m > Net Income 39.6m |
| Net Debt (2.31b) to EBITDA (362.8m): 6.36 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (269.3m) vs 12m ago -0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -10.40% > 18% (prev 53.75%; Δ -64.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 18.26% > 50% (prev 18.64%; Δ -0.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.60 > 6 (EBIT TTM 166.6m / Interest Expense TTM 104.3m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 416.6m - Total Current Liabilities 286.5m) / Total Assets 4.41b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -44.4m / Total Assets 4.41b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 166.6m / Avg Total Assets 4.26b) |
| D: 0.41 (Book Value of Equity 1.06b / Total Liabilities 2.58b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.86 = B |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 284.9m/281.4m, Revenue 778.1m/766.8m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 778.1m / 766.8m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 39.6m - CFO 234.8m) / TA 4.41b) |
| Beneish M = -3.02 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.75 with a total of 1,718,439 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.68%, over one month by +7.28%, over three months by +5.99% and over the past year by -25.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.50 (which is 4.3% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Empire State Realty Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.29. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ESRT.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 6.4 | 10.4% |
P/E Trailing = 26.381
P/E Forward = 129.8701
P/S = 2.1836
P/B = 0.8976
P/EG = 37.3626
Revenue TTM = 778.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 166.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 362.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.89b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 90.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.38b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 27.9m
Net Debt = 2.31b USD (calculated: Debt 2.38b - CCE 68.8m)
Enterprise Value = 4.00b USD (1.70b + Debt 2.38b - CCE 68.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.60 (Ebit TTM 166.6m / Interest Expense TTM 104.3m)
EV/FCF = 66.49x (Enterprise Value 4.00b / FCF TTM 60.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.50% (FCF TTM 60.2m / Enterprise Value 4.00b)
FCF Margin = 7.74% (FCF TTM 60.2m / Revenue TTM 778.1m)
Net Margin = 5.09% (Net Income TTM 39.6m / Revenue TTM 778.1m)
Gross Margin = -10.40% ((Revenue TTM 778.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 859.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -1.40% (prev -172.6%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 4.00b / Total Assets 4.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.39% (Interest Expense 104.3m / Debt 2.38b)
Taxrate = 3.39% (2.12m / 62.3m)
NOPAT = 161.0m (EBIT 166.6m * (1 - 3.39%))
Current Ratio = 1.45 (Total Current Assets 416.6m / Total Current Liabilities 286.5m)
Debt / Equity = 2.23 (Debt 2.38b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.06b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.36 (Net Debt 2.31b / EBITDA 362.8m)
Debt / FCF = 38.31 (Net Debt 2.31b / FCF TTM 60.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.93% (Net Income 39.6m / Total Assets 4.41b)
RoE = 3.77% (Net Income TTM 39.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.05b)
RoCE = 5.66% (EBIT 166.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.05b + L.T.Debt 1.89b))
RoIC = 3.86% (NOPAT 161.0m / Invested Capital 4.17b)
WACC = 6.01% (E(1.70b)/V(4.07b) * Re(8.48%) + D(2.38b)/V(4.07b) * Rd(4.39%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 8.48% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.47 | Cagr: 0.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈98.0m ; Y1≈85.9m ; Y5≈69.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.11b - Net Debt 2.31b = -1.19b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -90.18 | EPS CAGR: -28.56% | SUE: 0.23 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.96 | Revenue CAGR: 2.42% | SUE: 0.35 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+3.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+3.1%