ESRT Stock Analysis: Empire State Realty Trust | NYSE
REIT - Diversified | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.464m USD | 12M Return: -34.4% | US2921041065 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.2M
EPS Trend: -63.5%
Rev. Trend: 90.5%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ESRT) is a New York City-focused diversified real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates office, retail, and multifamily properties. As of June 30, 2026, its portfolio includes approximately 7.5 million rentable square feet of office space, 0.8 million rentable square feet of retail space, and 743 residential units. The company is headquartered in New York, was incorporated in Maryland in 2011, and went public in October 2013.
As a REIT, ESRT benefits from a tax structure that generally requires the distribution of at least 90% of taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends, in exchange for pass-through tax treatment. The companys focus on energy efficiency and indoor environmental quality aligns with the growing emphasis on ESG standards within the commercial real estate sector, where sustainability certifications and operating efficiency increasingly influence tenant demand and asset values.
- NYC office occupancy recovery accelerates leasing demand
- Empire State Observatory tourism revenue drives ancillary income growth
- Federal Reserve rate cuts pressure REIT cap rates and valuations
| Net Income: 7.27m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.90 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.65% < 20% (prev -1.09%; Δ 37.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 227.6m > Net Income 7.27m |
| Net Debt (2.14b) to EBITDA (319.5m): 6.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (268.9m) vs 12m ago -0.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -22.94% > 18% (prev 53.18%; Δ -76.12% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 18.78% > 50% (prev 18.83%; Δ -0.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.09 > 6 (EBIT TTM 117.1m / Interest Expense TTM 107.0m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 507.0m - Total Current Liabilities 219.5m) / Total Assets 4.27b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -76.3m / Total Assets 4.27b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 117.1m / Avg Total Assets 4.18b) |
| D: 0.42 (Book Value of Equity 1.04b / Total Liabilities 2.48b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.01 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 278.3m/283.4m, Revenue 784.2m/768.1m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.15 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.89) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 784.2m / 768.1m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 7.27m - CFO 227.6m) / TA 4.27b) |
| Beneish M = -3.55 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.73 with a total of 4,857,828 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.28%, over one month by +11.82%, over three months by -14.99% and over the past year by -34.37%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.40 (which is 7% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Empire State Realty Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ESRT.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 5.2 | 9.9% |
P/E Trailing = 239.0
P/E Forward = 129.8701
P/S = 1.8706
P/B = 0.6882
P/EG = 37.3626
Revenue TTM = 784.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 117.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 319.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.71b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.06m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.23b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.06m
Net Debt = 2.14b USD (calculated: Debt 2.23b - CCE 85.6m)
Enterprise Value = 3.61b USD (1.46b + Debt 2.23b - CCE 85.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.09 (Ebit TTM 117.1m / Interest Expense TTM 107.0m)
EV/FCF = 34.74x (Enterprise Value 3.61b / FCF TTM 103.8m)
FCF Yield = 2.88% (FCF TTM 103.8m / Enterprise Value 3.61b)
FCF Margin = 13.24% (FCF TTM 103.8m / Revenue TTM 784.2m)
Net Margin = 0.93% (Net Income TTM 7.27m / Revenue TTM 784.2m)
Gross Margin = -22.94% ((Revenue TTM 784.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 964.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 1.08% (prev -1.40%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 3.61b / Total Assets 4.27b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.80% (Interest Expense 107.0m / Debt 2.23b)
Taxrate = 8.59% (870k / 10.1m)
NOPAT = 107.1m (EBIT 117.1m * (1 - 8.59%))
Current Ratio = 2.31 (Total Current Assets 507.0m / Total Current Liabilities 219.5m)
Debt / Equity = 2.14 (Debt 2.23b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.04b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.71 (Net Debt 2.14b / EBITDA 319.5m)
Debt / FCF = 20.64 (Net Debt 2.14b / FCF TTM 103.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.17% (Net Income 7.27m / Total Assets 4.27b)
RoE = 0.69% (Net Income TTM 7.27m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.05b)
RoCE = 4.24% (EBIT 117.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.05b + L.T.Debt 1.71b))
RoIC = 2.67% (NOPAT 107.1m / Invested Capital 4.02b)
WACC = 5.55% (E(1.46b)/V(3.69b) * Re(7.32%) + D(2.23b)/V(3.69b) * Rd(4.80%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 7.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 54.88 | Cagr: 0.24%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈87.3m ; Y1≈100.1m ; Y5≈147.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.42 (EV 2.22b - Net Debt 2.14b = Equity 73.0m / Shares 172.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -63.54 | EPS CAGR: -21.47% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.48 | Revenue CAGR: 2.08% | SUE: -1.05 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=-2.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+0.8%