ESTC Stock Analysis: Elastic | NYSE
Software - Application | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.863m USD | 12M Return: 20.5% | NL0013056914 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 157M
EPS Trend: 7.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 100.0%
Qual. Beats: 13
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Elastic N.V. is a Netherlands-based search and artificial intelligence (AI) software company listed on the NYSE under the ticker ESTC. The company provides a suite of data platforms designed to ingest, store, search, analyze, and visualize data across hybrid, public, private, and multi-cloud environments, serving customers in the United States and internationally.
Its core offering is the Elasticsearch Platform, which functions as a distributed, real-time vector database and analytics engine capable of handling diverse data types, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured data. This is complemented by Kibana, a user interface for platform management, and a range of specialized solutions such as Elastic Search & AI (which integrates with large language models for retrieval-augmented generation), Elastic Security for threat prevention and response, and Elastic Observability for logs, infrastructure, application performance, and digital experience monitoring.
Elastic also delivers its software through cloud-based subscription services, including Elastic Cloud Hosted and Elastic Cloud Serverless. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Amsterdam, the company operates within the Application Software sub-industry of the broader Information Technology sector and went public in October 2018. As a player in the enterprise search and observability market, Elastic competes in a segment that has grown increasingly important with the rise of cloud computing, cybersecurity demand, and AI-driven data analytics.
- AI vector search demand accelerates cloud consumption growth
- Subscription mix expansion drives operating margin improvement
- OpenSearch competition pressures enterprise customer acquisition
| Net Income: 375.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.38 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 46.64% < 20% (prev 63.02%; Δ -16.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 354.1m > Net Income 375.6m |
| Net Debt (-840.7m) to EBITDA (63.9m): -13.15 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.6m) vs 12m ago -1.25% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.50% > 18% (prev 75.19%; Δ 0.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.23% > 50% (prev 61.46%; Δ 3.77% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM 51.6m / Interest Expense TTM 75.8m) |
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 1.88b - Total Current Liabilities 1.04b) / Total Assets 3.00b |
| B: -0.25 (Retained Earnings -748.7m / Total Assets 3.00b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 51.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.76b) |
| D: 0.76 (Book Value of Equity 1.30b / Total Liabilities 1.71b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.95 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 236.4m/222.0m, Revenue 1.80b/1.55b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 75.19% / 75.50%) |
| AQI: 1.49 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.80b / 1.55b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 375.6m - CFO 354.1m) / TA 3.00b) |
| Beneish M = -2.69 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 98.23 with a total of 1,170,779 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.57%, over one month by +13.46%, over three months by +58.28% and over the past year by +20.45%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 92.80 (which is 5.5% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Elastic has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.07. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ESTC.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 110.7 | 12.7% |
P/E Trailing = 26.84
P/E Forward = 27.3973
P/S = 5.4728
P/B = 7.3899
P/EG = 4.165
Revenue TTM = 1.80b USD
EBIT TTM = 51.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 63.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 571.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.71m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 620.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 24.6m
Net Debt = -840.7m USD (calculated: Debt 620.4m - CCE 1.46b)
Enterprise Value = 9.02b USD (9.86b + Debt 620.4m - CCE 1.46b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.68 (Ebit TTM 51.6m / Interest Expense TTM 75.8m)
EV/FCF = 13.19x (Enterprise Value 9.02b / FCF TTM 683.9m)
FCF Yield = 7.58% (FCF TTM 683.9m / Enterprise Value 9.02b)
FCF Margin = 37.95% (FCF TTM 683.9m / Revenue TTM 1.80b)
Net Margin = 20.84% (Net Income TTM 375.6m / Revenue TTM 1.80b)
Gross Margin = 75.50% ((Revenue TTM 1.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 441.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.50% (prev 75.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.01 (Enterprise Value 9.02b / Total Assets 3.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 12.21% (Interest Expense 75.8m / Debt 620.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 40.8m (EBIT 51.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.79 (Total Current Assets 1.88b / Total Current Liabilities 1.05b)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 620.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.30b)
Debt / EBITDA = -13.15 (Net Debt -840.7m / EBITDA 63.9m)
Debt / FCF = -1.23 (Net Debt -840.7m / FCF TTM 683.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.60% (Net Income 375.6m / Total Assets 3.00b)
RoE = 35.31% (Net Income TTM 375.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.06b)
RoCE = 3.16% (EBIT 51.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.06b + L.T.Debt 571.2m))
RoIC = 2.17% (NOPAT 40.8m / Invested Capital 1.88b)
WACC = 9.70% (E(9.86b)/V(10.5b) * Re(9.70%) + D(620.4m)/V(10.5b) * Rd(12.21%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 78.89 | Cagr: 1.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.74% ; FCFF base≈485.1m ; Y1≈556.1m ; Y5≈818.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 102.8 (EV 9.95b - Net Debt -840.7m = Equity 10.8b / Shares 105.0m; r=9.70% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 7.18 | EPS CAGR: 2.98% | SUE: 2.67 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 99.96 | Revenue CAGR: 17.37% | SUE: 1.65 | # QB: 13
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.81 | Chg30d=+1.52% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=28
EPS next Quarter (2027-01-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=-1.08% | Revisions=-32% | Analysts=27
EPS current Year (2027-04-30): EPS=3.36 | Chg30d=+3.56% | Revisions=+90% | GrowthEPS=+30.7% | GrowthRev=+15.3%
EPS next Year (2028-04-30): EPS=3.96 | Chg30d=+2.05% | Revisions=+30% | GrowthEPS=+17.7% | GrowthRev=+14.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36% (up=67, down=31)