ESTC Stock Analysis: Elastic | NYSE
Software - Application | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.033m USD | 12M Return: -32.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 115M
EPS Trend: 67.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 100.0%
Qual. Beats: 12
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Elastic NV (NYSE: ESTC) is a search-focused artificial intelligence company that provides enterprise software platforms deployable across hybrid, public, private, and multi-cloud environments. The company, incorporated in 2012 and headquartered in Amsterdam, Netherlands, operates in the United States and internationally within the Application Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector. Its primary offering, the Elastic Search AI Platform, ingests and stores data from multiple sources and performs search, analysis, and visualization functions.
The product portfolio includes Elasticsearch, which functions as a distributed real-time vector database and analytics engine supporting various data types (textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured); Kibana, the user interface and management layer; Elastic Security, a unified solution for threat prevention, detection, and response; and Elastic Observability, which provides logs analytics, infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, and digital experience monitoring. The company went public on October 5, 2018.
Elastic operates within the enterprise software market, where its hybrid and multi-cloud deployment model addresses a common IT requirement for organizations managing workloads across on-premises and cloud environments. Vector database technology, a core component of the Elasticsearch product, has gained relevance as enterprises adopt AI applications requiring semantic search and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) capabilities with large language models.
- Subscription revenue growth driven by vector search and AI demand
- Competition intensifies from Cisco Splunk and Datadog in observability
- Consumption-based pricing transition impacts near-term revenue growth
| Net Income: 367.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.21 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 40.93% < 20% (prev 62.21%; Δ -21.28% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 326.9m > Net Income 367.8m |
| Net Debt (-759.8m) to EBITDA (72.1m): -10.53 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.3m) vs 12m ago 0.22% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 76.07% > 18% (prev 74.39%; Δ 1.68% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 60.55% > 50% (prev 57.21%; Δ 3.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.80 > 6 (EBIT TTM 60.8m / Interest Expense TTM 75.8m) |
| A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 1.92b - Total Current Liabilities 1.20b) / Total Assets 3.15b |
| B: -0.23 (Retained Earnings -732.0m / Total Assets 3.15b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 60.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.87b) |
| D: 0.68 (Book Value of Equity 1.28b / Total Liabilities 1.88b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.58 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 464.4m/375.6m, Revenue 1.74b/1.48b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 74.39% / 76.07%) |
| AQI: 1.57 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 1.74b / 1.48b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 367.8m - CFO 326.9m) / TA 3.15b) |
| Beneish M = -2.54 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 58.04 with a total of 1,555,100 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.28%, over one month by -6.07%, over three months by +14.79% and over the past year by -32.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 54.30 (which is 6.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Elastic has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ESTC.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 74.3 | 27.9% |
P/E Trailing = 16.9213
P/E Forward = 17.9856
P/S = 3.4688
P/B = 4.7599
P/EG = 4.165
Revenue TTM = 1.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 60.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 72.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 570.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.54m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 612.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 20.7m
Net Debt = -759.8m USD (calculated: Debt 612.2m - CCE 1.37b)
Enterprise Value = 5.27b USD (6.03b + Debt 612.2m - CCE 1.37b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.80 (Ebit TTM 60.8m / Interest Expense TTM 75.8m)
EV/FCF = 7.87x (Enterprise Value 5.27b / FCF TTM 670.4m)
FCF Yield = 12.71% (FCF TTM 670.4m / Enterprise Value 5.27b)
FCF Margin = 38.55% (FCF TTM 670.4m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Net Margin = 21.14% (Net Income TTM 367.8m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Gross Margin = 76.07% ((Revenue TTM 1.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 416.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.36% (prev 76.34%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.67 (Enterprise Value 5.27b / Total Assets 3.15b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 12.39% (Interest Expense 75.8m / Debt 612.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 48.1m (EBIT 60.8m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 1.92b / Total Current Liabilities 1.21b)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 612.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = -10.53 (Net Debt -759.8m / EBITDA 72.1m)
Debt / FCF = -1.13 (Net Debt -759.8m / FCF TTM 670.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 982.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.80% (Net Income 367.8m / Total Assets 3.15b)
RoE = 37.43% (Net Income TTM 367.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 982.5m)
RoCE = 3.92% (EBIT 60.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 982.5m + L.T.Debt 570.9m))
RoIC = 2.57% (NOPAT 48.1m / Invested Capital 1.87b)
WACC = 10.40% (E(6.03b)/V(6.65b) * Re(10.46%) + D(612.2m)/V(6.65b) * Rd(12.39%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 60.0 | Cagr: 0.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.64% ; FCFF base≈465.3m ; Y1≈533.4m ; Y5≈785.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 90.74 (EV 8.67b - Net Debt -759.8m = Equity 9.43b / Shares 104.0m; r=10.40% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 67.34 | EPS CAGR: 21.45% | SUE: 0.96 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.97 | Revenue CAGR: 17.65% | SUE: 0.90 | # QB: 12
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=+0.19% | Revisions=-80% | Analysts=28
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=+0.16% | Revisions=+89% | Analysts=27
EPS current Year (2027-04-30): EPS=3.24 | Chg30d=-0.80% | Revisions=+90% | GrowthEPS=+26.2% | GrowthRev=+14.6%
EPS next Year (2028-04-30): EPS=3.88 | Chg30d=+2.16% | Revisions=+76% | GrowthEPS=+19.7% | GrowthRev=+14.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +49% (up=68, down=22)