(ESTC) Elastic - Overview
Sector: TechnologyIndustry: Software - Application | Exchange NYSE (USA) | Currency USD | Market Cap: 5.573m | Total Return -48.4% in 12m
Stock: Search, Analytics, Security, Observability, AI
Total Rating 38
Risk 70
Buy Signal -0.68
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 55.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.11 |
| Alpha | -66.96 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.401 |
| Beta Downside | 0.848 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 62.88% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.05 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Risks
Technicals:
choppy
Description: ESTC Elastic March 04, 2026
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is a search AI company offering software platforms for hybrid, public, and private cloud environments.
The companys primary offering is the Elastic Search AI Platform, which ingests, stores, searches, analyzes, and visualizes data from diverse sources and formats. This business model is common among enterprise software providers.
Key products include Elasticsearch, a real-time vector database and analytics engine, and Kibana, a user interface for platform management. The company also provides Elastic Security for threat detection and response, and Elastic Observability for unified analysis across logs, infrastructure, and application performance. The application software sector frequently integrates AI capabilities for enhanced data processing.
Further research on ValueRay can provide deeper insights into Elastics financial performance and market position.
Headlines to watch out for
- Cloud adoption drives Elastic Search AI Platform revenue
- AI integration expands search and security product demand
- Subscription model ensures recurring revenue growth
- Competition from cloud providers pressures pricing
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -84.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.36 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 47.96% < 20% (prev 59.89%; Δ -11.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 261.2m > Net Income -84.5m |
| Net Debt (-149.3m) to EBITDA (75.9m): -1.97 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.7m) vs 12m ago 1.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.97% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 7.52k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.34% > 50% (prev 61.36%; Δ 8.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.87 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 75.9m / Interest Expense TTM 75.4m) |
Altman Z'' 0.03
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 1.79b - Total Current Liabilities 983.2m) / Total Assets 2.44b |
| B: -0.48 (Retained Earnings -1.17b / Total Assets 2.44b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 65.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.38b) |
| D: -0.72 (Book Value of Equity -1.19b / Total Liabilities 1.65b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.03 = B |
Beneish M -2.98
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 357.4m/270.4m, Revenue 1.68b/1.43b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 75.97% / 74.13%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 1.68b / 1.43b) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -84.5m - CFO 261.2m) / TA 2.44b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ESTC shares?
As of March 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 51.31 with a total of 1,274,288 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.96%, over one month by -16.68%, over three months by -33.34% and over the past year by -48.36%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.96%, over one month by -16.68%, over three months by -33.34% and over the past year by -48.36%.
Is ESTC a buy, sell or hold?
Elastic has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ESTC.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ESTC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 82.1 | 60.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 82.1 | 60.1% |
ESTC Fundamental Data Overview March 25, 2026
P/E Forward = 18.5874
P/S = 3.3231
P/B = 6.9756
P/EG = 4.165
Revenue TTM = 1.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 65.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 75.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 570.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.09m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 591.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -149.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.91b USD (5.57b + Debt 591.7m - CCE 1.25b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.87 (Ebit TTM 65.5m / Interest Expense TTM 75.4m)
EV/FCF = 19.13x (Enterprise Value 4.91b / FCF TTM 256.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.23% (FCF TTM 256.8m / Enterprise Value 4.91b)
FCF Margin = 15.32% (FCF TTM 256.8m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Net Margin = -5.04% (Net Income TTM -84.5m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Gross Margin = 75.97% ((Revenue TTM 1.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 403.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.34% (prev 75.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.01 (Enterprise Value 4.91b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.48% (Interest Expense 44.2m / Debt 591.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 51.7m (EBIT 65.5m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.82 (Total Current Assets 1.79b / Total Current Liabilities 983.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 591.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 791.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.97 (Net Debt -149.3m / EBITDA 75.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.58 (Net Debt -149.3m / FCF TTM 256.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 895.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.54% (Net Income -84.5m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = -9.44% (Net Income TTM -84.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 895.2m)
RoCE = 4.47% (EBIT 65.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 895.2m + L.T.Debt 570.6m))
RoIC = 3.53% (NOPAT 51.7m / Invested Capital 1.47b)
WACC = 10.43% (E(5.57b)/V(6.16b) * Re(10.91%) + D(591.7m)/V(6.16b) * Rd(7.48%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.08% ; FCFF base≈248.9m ; Y1≈307.1m ; Y5≈524.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 59.13 (EV 5.97b - Net Debt -149.3m = Equity 6.12b / Shares 103.5m; r=10.43% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 16.62 | EPS CAGR: 14.65% | SUE: 0.93 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.84 | Revenue CAGR: 18.33% | SUE: 2.22 | # QB: 11
EPS next Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.63 | Chg7d=-0.001 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+5 | Analysts=23
EPS next Year (2027-04-30): EPS=2.83 | Chg7d=-0.059 | Chg30d=+0.031 | Revisions Net=+17 | Growth EPS=+11.9% | Growth Revenue=+13.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0.26 (12 Up / 7 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
P/S = 3.3231
P/B = 6.9756
P/EG = 4.165
Revenue TTM = 1.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 65.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 75.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 570.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.09m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 591.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -149.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.91b USD (5.57b + Debt 591.7m - CCE 1.25b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.87 (Ebit TTM 65.5m / Interest Expense TTM 75.4m)
EV/FCF = 19.13x (Enterprise Value 4.91b / FCF TTM 256.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.23% (FCF TTM 256.8m / Enterprise Value 4.91b)
FCF Margin = 15.32% (FCF TTM 256.8m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Net Margin = -5.04% (Net Income TTM -84.5m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Gross Margin = 75.97% ((Revenue TTM 1.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 403.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.34% (prev 75.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.01 (Enterprise Value 4.91b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.48% (Interest Expense 44.2m / Debt 591.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 51.7m (EBIT 65.5m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.82 (Total Current Assets 1.79b / Total Current Liabilities 983.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 591.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 791.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.97 (Net Debt -149.3m / EBITDA 75.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.58 (Net Debt -149.3m / FCF TTM 256.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 895.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.54% (Net Income -84.5m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = -9.44% (Net Income TTM -84.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 895.2m)
RoCE = 4.47% (EBIT 65.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 895.2m + L.T.Debt 570.6m))
RoIC = 3.53% (NOPAT 51.7m / Invested Capital 1.47b)
WACC = 10.43% (E(5.57b)/V(6.16b) * Re(10.91%) + D(591.7m)/V(6.16b) * Rd(7.48%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.08% ; FCFF base≈248.9m ; Y1≈307.1m ; Y5≈524.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 59.13 (EV 5.97b - Net Debt -149.3m = Equity 6.12b / Shares 103.5m; r=10.43% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 16.62 | EPS CAGR: 14.65% | SUE: 0.93 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.84 | Revenue CAGR: 18.33% | SUE: 2.22 | # QB: 11
EPS next Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.63 | Chg7d=-0.001 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+5 | Analysts=23
EPS next Year (2027-04-30): EPS=2.83 | Chg7d=-0.059 | Chg30d=+0.031 | Revisions Net=+17 | Growth EPS=+11.9% | Growth Revenue=+13.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0.26 (12 Up / 7 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)