(ESTC) Elastic - Ratings and Ratios
Search, Analytics, Security, Observability, Visualization
ESTC EPS (Earnings per Share)
ESTC Revenue
Description: ESTC Elastic November 04, 2025
Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) positions itself as a search-artificial-intelligence (AI) company that delivers a unified software platform capable of running in hybrid, public, private or multi-cloud environments worldwide.
The core offering, branded the Elastic Search AI Platform, ingests and stores data from diverse sources and formats, then enables search, analytics and visualization. Key components include the Elasticsearch vector database and analytics engine, the Kibana UI/management console, integration with large-language models (LLMs), Elastic Security for threat detection and response, and Elastic Observability for log analytics, infrastructure monitoring, APM, digital-experience monitoring and AI-driven insights.
From a financial standpoint, Elastic reported FY 2023 revenue of approximately $1.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 21 %, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassing $2 billion and gross margins consistently near 78 %. The subscription-based model now accounts for over 90 % of total revenue, reflecting the broader software-as-a-service (SaaS) shift in the application-software sector. Macro-level drivers include sustained enterprise cloud-spending growth (≈ 20 % YoY) and accelerating adoption of generative AI, which boosts demand for searchable, vector-enabled data stores.
Given Elastic’s strong positioning in the fast-growing AI-augmented search and observability markets, a deeper dive into its competitive moat and valuation metrics on platforms like ValueRay could help clarify the upside potential.
ESTC Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 9,373m |
| Sub-Industry | Application Software |
| IPO / Inception | 2018-10-05 |
ESTC Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -7.15% |
| Fundamental | 80.7% |
| Dividend Rating | - |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -8.18% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.23 of 5 |
ESTC Dividends
Currently no dividends paidESTC Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 44.4% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -60.6% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -29.7% |
| CAGR 5y | 10.55% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.22 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 0.51 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.09 |
| Alpha | -9.23 |
| Beta | 1.053 |
| Volatility | 49.53% |
| Current Volume | 1587.9k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1458.9k |
| Stop Loss | 86.3 (-4.1%) |
| Signal | -0.11 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (-83.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 93.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.99pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 63.02% (prev 52.83%; Δ 10.18pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 318.2m > Net Income -83.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-68.2m) to EBITDA (33.2m) ratio: -2.06 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.09 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (106.0m) change vs 12m ago 3.60% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 75.19% (prev 73.93%; Δ 1.26pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 66.37% (prev 61.43%; Δ 4.94pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.90 (EBITDA TTM 33.2m / Interest Expense TTM 25.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.38
| (A) 0.39 = (Total Current Assets 1.88b - Total Current Liabilities 900.8m) / Total Assets 2.52b |
| (B) -0.45 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.12b / Total Assets 2.52b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 22.7m / Avg Total Assets 2.34b |
| (D) -0.74 = Book Value of Equity -1.15b / Total Liabilities 1.55b |
| Total Rating: 0.38 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 80.66
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt = 1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.71% = 1.85 |
| 3. FCF Margin 20.24% = 5.06 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.61 = 2.32 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -2.06 = 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 8.32)% = 10.39 |
| 7. RoE -9.36% = -1.56 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 99.73% = 7.48 |
| 9. EPS Trend 32.27% = 1.61 |
What is the price of ESTC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.90%, over one month by +11.97%, over three months by +17.87% and over the past year by +4.70%.
Is Elastic a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ESTC is around 84.36 USD . This means that ESTC is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -6.29%.
Is ESTC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ESTC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 119.8 | 33.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 119.8 | 33.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 94.8 | 5.3% |
ESTC Fundamental Data Overview October 27, 2025
P/E Forward = 40.6504
P/S = 6.0427
P/B = 9.5818
P/EG = 4.165
Beta = 1.053
Revenue TTM = 1.55b USD
EBIT TTM = 22.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 33.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 570.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.04m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 594.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -68.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.47b USD (9.37b + Debt 594.2m - CCE 1.49b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.90 (Ebit TTM 22.7m / Interest Expense TTM 25.1m)
FCF Yield = 3.71% (FCF TTM 314.0m / Enterprise Value 8.47b)
FCF Margin = 20.24% (FCF TTM 314.0m / Revenue TTM 1.55b)
Net Margin = -5.38% (Net Income TTM -83.5m / Revenue TTM 1.55b)
Gross Margin = 75.19% ((Revenue TTM 1.55b - Cost of Revenue TTM 384.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.70% (prev 74.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.36 (Enterprise Value 8.47b / Total Assets 2.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.07% (Interest Expense 6.35m / Debt 594.2m)
Taxrate = -273.3k% (out of range, set to none) (24.6m / -9000 )
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 2.09 (Total Current Assets 1.88b / Total Current Liabilities 900.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.61 (Debt 594.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 971.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.06 (Net Debt -68.2m / EBITDA 33.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.22 (Net Debt -68.2m / FCF TTM 314.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 892.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.31% (Net Income -83.5m / Total Assets 2.52b)
RoE = -9.36% (Net Income TTM -83.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 892.3m)
RoCE = 1.55% (EBIT 22.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 892.3m + L.T.Debt 570.0m))
RoIC = 17.63% (EBIT 22.7m / (Assets 2.52b - Curr.Liab 900.8m - Cash 1.49b))
WACC = 9.31% (E(9.37b)/V(9.97b) * Re(9.90%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.42%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.65% ; FCFE base≈252.5m ; Y1≈311.4m ; Y5≈531.4m
Fair Price DCF = 61.54 (DCF Value 6.54b / Shares Outstanding 106.3m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 32.27 | EPS CAGR: -47.19% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.73 | Revenue CAGR: 17.84% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 9
Additional Sources for ESTC Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle