(ESTC) Elastic - Overview
Sector: Technology | Industry: Software - Application | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 5.722m USD | Total Return: -41% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 81.3M
EPS Trend: 39.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 100.0%
Qual. Beats: 11
Warnings
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.9 is critical
Altman Z'' 0.03 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is a search-focused artificial intelligence company providing distributed database and analytics software. Its core offering, the Elastic Search AI Platform, enables organizations to ingest, store, and analyze structured and unstructured data across hybrid and multi-cloud environments. Key product components include Elasticsearch for vector-based retrieval, Kibana for data visualization, and specialized solutions for cybersecurity and IT observability.
The company operates within the infrastructure software sector, utilizing an open-source heritage to drive enterprise adoption. This business model relies on a freemium conversion strategy, where users transition from free community versions to paid subscriptions for advanced security, management, and orchestration features. As organizations integrate large language models (LLMs), the demand for vector databases like Elasticsearch has increased to facilitate retrieval-augmented generation (RAG).
For a detailed breakdown of the companys valuation metrics and historical performance, consider reviewing the latest data on ValueRay. Elastic N.V. remains headquartered in Amsterdam and maintains a global presence as a critical provider of search-powered observability and security tools.
- Enterprise transition to generative AI drives demand for vector database integration
- Elastic Cloud consumption growth correlates with enterprise digital transformation spending
- Consolidation of observability and security tools increases average contract value
- Sales execution and execution of tiered pricing models impact revenue margins
- Competition from hyperscale cloud providers pressures long-term platform market share
| Net Income: -84.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.71 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 47.96% < 20% (prev 59.89%; Δ -11.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 261.2m > Net Income -84.5m |
| Net Debt (-639.0m) to EBITDA (75.9m): -8.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.7m) vs 12m ago 1.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.97% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 7.52k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.34% > 50% (prev 61.36%; Δ 8.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.87 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 75.9m / Interest Expense TTM 75.4m) |
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 1.79b - Total Current Liabilities 983.2m) / Total Assets 2.44b |
| B: -0.48 (Retained Earnings -1.17b / Total Assets 2.44b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 65.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.38b) |
| D: -0.72 (Book Value of Equity -1.19b / Total Liabilities 1.65b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.03 = B |
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 357.4m/270.4m, Revenue 1.68b/1.43b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 75.97% / 74.13%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 1.68b / 1.43b) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -84.5m - CFO 261.2m) / TA 2.44b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of May 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 53.84 with a total of 1,253,449 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.32%,
over one month by +18.13%,
over three months by -2.78% and
over the past year by -40.97%.
Elastic has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ESTC.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 78.2 | 45.3% |
P/S = 3.4116
P/B = 7.0293
P/EG = 4.165
Revenue TTM = 1.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 65.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 75.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 570.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.09m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 612.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.1m
Net Debt = -639.0m USD (calculated: Debt 612.8m - CCE 1.25b)
Enterprise Value = 5.08b USD (5.72b + Debt 612.8m - CCE 1.25b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.87 (Ebit TTM 65.5m / Interest Expense TTM 75.4m)
EV/FCF = 24.73x (Enterprise Value 5.08b / FCF TTM 205.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.04% (FCF TTM 205.6m / Enterprise Value 5.08b)
FCF Margin = 12.26% (FCF TTM 205.6m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Net Margin = -5.04% (Net Income TTM -84.5m / Revenue TTM 1.68b)
Gross Margin = 75.97% ((Revenue TTM 1.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 403.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.34% (prev 75.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.08 (Enterprise Value 5.08b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 12.31% (Interest Expense 75.4m / Debt 612.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 51.7m (EBIT 65.5m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.77 (Total Current Assets 1.79b / Total Current Liabilities 1.01b)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 612.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 791.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -8.42 (Net Debt -639.0m / EBITDA 75.9m)
Debt / FCF = -3.11 (Net Debt -639.0m / FCF TTM 205.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 895.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.54% (Net Income -84.5m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = -4.10% (Net Income TTM -84.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.06b)
RoCE = 2.49% (EBIT 65.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.06b + L.T.Debt 570.6m))
RoIC = 3.57% (NOPAT 51.7m / Invested Capital 1.45b)
WACC = 10.60% (E(5.72b)/V(6.33b) * Re(10.69%) + D(612.8m)/V(6.33b) * Rd(12.31%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 73.33 | Cagr: 2.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.06% ; FCFF base≈176.6m ; Y1≈202.5m ; Y5≈298.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 37.18 (EV 3.21b - Net Debt -639.0m = Equity 3.85b / Shares 103.5m; r=10.60% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 39.63 | EPS CAGR: 27.98% | SUE: 0.46 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.98 | Revenue CAGR: 17.82% | SUE: 2.22 | # QB: 11
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.64 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=+22% | Analysts=25
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +22%