(ESTC) Elastic - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: Netherlands •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: NL0013056914
Search Platform, Kibana, Security, Observability, Vector Database
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 52.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 70.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.13% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.54 |
| Alpha | -48.31 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.14 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.488 |
| Beta | 1.392 |
| Beta Downside | 1.191 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.38% |
| Mean DD | 22.06% |
| Median DD | 20.73% |
Description: ESTC Elastic January 07, 2026
Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) is a search-AI company that delivers a unified software stack for hybrid, public, private and multi-cloud environments. Its flagship offering, the Elastic Search AI Platform, ingests diverse data sources, stores them in a distributed real-time vector database, and enables search, analytics, and visualization through components such as Elasticsearch, Kibana, Elastic Security, and Elastic Observability.
In FY 2023 the company reported revenue of roughly $1.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 20 %, and an annual recurring revenue (ARR) run-rate near $2.1 billion with gross margins around 78 %. Growth is being driven by rising enterprise data volumes, expanding cloud-native workloads, and heightened demand for AI-enhanced observability and security solutions-trends that the broader application-software sector is seeing at a CAGR of roughly 15 %.
For a deeper dive into Elastic’s valuation metrics, you might explore the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: -109.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 55.83% < 20% (prev 57.06%; Δ -1.23% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 306.5m > Net Income -109.3m |
| Net Debt (-213.3m) to EBITDA (35.4m): -6.02 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (106.3m) vs 12m ago 2.94% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.54% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 7479 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 68.36% > 50% (prev 61.65%; Δ 6.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.68 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 35.4m / Interest Expense TTM 37.7m) |
Altman Z'' 0.11
| A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 1.83b - Total Current Liabilities 927.0m) / Total Assets 2.48b |
| B: -0.47 (Retained Earnings -1.18b / Total Assets 2.48b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 25.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.35b) |
| D: -0.76 (Book Value of Equity -1.20b / Total Liabilities 1.59b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.11 = B |
Beneish M -3.27
| DSRI: 0.87 (Receivables 260.9m/256.1m, Revenue 1.61b/1.38b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 75.54% / 74.02%) |
| AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 1.61b / 1.38b) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI -109.3m - CFO 306.5m) / TA 2.48b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.27 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 59.11
| 1. Piotroski: 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 4.46% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 18.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 0.66 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: -6.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: -9.06% |
| 7. RoE: -11.98% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 99.73% |
| 9. EPS Trend: 44.86% |
What is the price of ESTC shares?
As of January 26, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 71.78 with a total of 1,143,084 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.18%, over one month by -6.74%, over three months by -19.06% and over the past year by -31.59%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.18%, over one month by -6.74%, over three months by -19.06% and over the past year by -31.59%.
Is ESTC a buy, sell or hold?
Elastic has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ESTC.
- Strong Buy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ESTC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 104 | 44.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 104 | 44.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 68 | -5.2% |
ESTC Fundamental Data Overview January 20, 2026
P/E Forward = 25.7732
P/S = 4.7137
P/B = 8.4406
P/EG = 4.165
Revenue TTM = 1.61b USD
EBIT TTM = 25.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 35.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 570.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.72m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 590.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -213.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.78b USD (7.59b + Debt 590.7m - CCE 1.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.68 (Ebit TTM 25.6m / Interest Expense TTM 37.7m)
EV/FCF = 22.43x (Enterprise Value 6.78b / FCF TTM 302.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.46% (FCF TTM 302.3m / Enterprise Value 6.78b)
FCF Margin = 18.79% (FCF TTM 302.3m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Net Margin = -6.79% (Net Income TTM -109.3m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Gross Margin = 75.54% ((Revenue TTM 1.61b - Cost of Revenue TTM 393.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.91% (prev 76.70%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.74 (Enterprise Value 6.78b / Total Assets 2.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.22% (Interest Expense 19.0m / Debt 590.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 20.2m (EBIT 25.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.97 (Total Current Assets 1.83b / Total Current Liabilities 927.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 590.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 891.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.02 (Net Debt -213.3m / EBITDA 35.4m)
Debt / FCF = -0.71 (Net Debt -213.3m / FCF TTM 302.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 912.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.64% (Net Income -109.3m / Total Assets 2.48b)
RoE = -11.98% (Net Income TTM -109.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 912.2m)
RoCE = 1.73% (EBIT 25.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 912.2m + L.T.Debt 570.3m))
RoIC = 1.37% (NOPAT 20.2m / Invested Capital 1.48b)
WACC = 10.43% (E(7.59b)/V(8.18b) * Re(11.04%) + D(590.7m)/V(8.18b) * Rd(3.22%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.57%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.79% ; FCFF base≈261.8m ; Y1≈323.0m ; Y5≈550.1m
Fair Price DCF = 60.93 (EV 6.21b - Net Debt -213.3m = Equity 6.42b / Shares 105.4m; r=10.43% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 44.86 | EPS CAGR: -49.54% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.73 | Revenue CAGR: 18.52% | SUE: 1.02 | # QB: 10
EPS current Year (2026-04-30): EPS=2.45 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=+23 | Growth EPS=+20.1% | Growth Revenue=+15.9%
EPS next Year (2027-04-30): EPS=2.80 | Chg30d=+0.011 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+14.2% | Growth Revenue=+13.6%
P/S = 4.7137
P/B = 8.4406
P/EG = 4.165
Revenue TTM = 1.61b USD
EBIT TTM = 25.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 35.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 570.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.72m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 590.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -213.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.78b USD (7.59b + Debt 590.7m - CCE 1.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.68 (Ebit TTM 25.6m / Interest Expense TTM 37.7m)
EV/FCF = 22.43x (Enterprise Value 6.78b / FCF TTM 302.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.46% (FCF TTM 302.3m / Enterprise Value 6.78b)
FCF Margin = 18.79% (FCF TTM 302.3m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Net Margin = -6.79% (Net Income TTM -109.3m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Gross Margin = 75.54% ((Revenue TTM 1.61b - Cost of Revenue TTM 393.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.91% (prev 76.70%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.74 (Enterprise Value 6.78b / Total Assets 2.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.22% (Interest Expense 19.0m / Debt 590.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 20.2m (EBIT 25.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.97 (Total Current Assets 1.83b / Total Current Liabilities 927.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 590.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 891.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.02 (Net Debt -213.3m / EBITDA 35.4m)
Debt / FCF = -0.71 (Net Debt -213.3m / FCF TTM 302.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 912.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.64% (Net Income -109.3m / Total Assets 2.48b)
RoE = -11.98% (Net Income TTM -109.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 912.2m)
RoCE = 1.73% (EBIT 25.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 912.2m + L.T.Debt 570.3m))
RoIC = 1.37% (NOPAT 20.2m / Invested Capital 1.48b)
WACC = 10.43% (E(7.59b)/V(8.18b) * Re(11.04%) + D(590.7m)/V(8.18b) * Rd(3.22%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.57%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.79% ; FCFF base≈261.8m ; Y1≈323.0m ; Y5≈550.1m
Fair Price DCF = 60.93 (EV 6.21b - Net Debt -213.3m = Equity 6.42b / Shares 105.4m; r=10.43% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 44.86 | EPS CAGR: -49.54% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.73 | Revenue CAGR: 18.52% | SUE: 1.02 | # QB: 10
EPS current Year (2026-04-30): EPS=2.45 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=+23 | Growth EPS=+20.1% | Growth Revenue=+15.9%
EPS next Year (2027-04-30): EPS=2.80 | Chg30d=+0.011 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+14.2% | Growth Revenue=+13.6%
Additional Sources for ESTC Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle