Overview Dividends

(ESTC) Elastic - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Netherlands • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: NL0013056914

Search, Analytics, Security, Observability, Visualization

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 61.94%
EPS Trend: 87.4%

Last SUE: 0.88σ
Qual. Beats: 6

Revenue

Revenue CAGR: 17.07%
Revenue Trend: 99.7%

Last SUE: 1.02σ
Qual. Beats: 10

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	54.3%
Value at Risk 5%th	71.8%
Relative Tail Risk	-19.68%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.40
Alpha	-40.66

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.519
Beta	1.384
Beta Downside	1.119

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	48.38%
Mean DD	20.39%
Median DD	18.35%

Description: ESTC Elastic November 04, 2025

Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) positions itself as a search-artificial-intelligence (AI) company that delivers a unified software platform capable of running in hybrid, public, private or multi-cloud environments worldwide.

The core offering, branded the Elastic Search AI Platform, ingests and stores data from diverse sources and formats, then enables search, analytics and visualization. Key components include the Elasticsearch vector database and analytics engine, the Kibana UI/management console, integration with large-language models (LLMs), Elastic Security for threat detection and response, and Elastic Observability for log analytics, infrastructure monitoring, APM, digital-experience monitoring and AI-driven insights.

From a financial standpoint, Elastic reported FY 2023 revenue of approximately $1.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 21 %, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassing $2 billion and gross margins consistently near 78 %. The subscription-based model now accounts for over 90 % of total revenue, reflecting the broader software-as-a-service (SaaS) shift in the application-software sector. Macro-level drivers include sustained enterprise cloud-spending growth (≈ 20 % YoY) and accelerating adoption of generative AI, which boosts demand for searchable, vector-enabled data stores.

Given Elastic’s strong positioning in the fast-growing AI-augmented search and observability markets, a deeper dive into its competitive moat and valuation metrics on platforms like ValueRay could help clarify the upside potential.

ESTC Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	7,443m
Sub-Industry	Application Software
IPO / Inception	2018-10-05
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-45.3%
Analyst Rating	4.23 of 5

ESTC Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

ESTC Growth Ratios

Metric	Value
CAGR 3y	5.44%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.11
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	0.27
Current Volume	3492.8k
Average Volume	1484.2k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0

Net Income (-109.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 96.6m TTM)

FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.20pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 55.83% (prev 57.06%; Δ -1.23pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 306.5m > Net Income -109.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (-780.2m) to EBITDA (35.4m) ratio: -22.03 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.97 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (106.3m) change vs 12m ago 2.94% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 75.54% (prev 74.02%; Δ 1.52pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 68.36% (prev 61.65%; Δ 6.71pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 0.68 (EBITDA TTM 35.4m / Interest Expense TTM 37.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.11

(A) 0.36 = (Total Current Assets 1.83b - Total Current Liabilities 927.0m) / Total Assets 2.48b

(B) -0.47 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.18b / Total Assets 2.48b

(D) -0.76 = Book Value of Equity -1.20b / Total Liabilities 1.59b

Total Rating: 0.11 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 80.05

1. Piotroski 6.0pt

2. FCF Yield 4.98%

3. FCF Margin 18.79%

4. Debt/Equity 0.02

5. Debt/Ebitda -22.03

6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.61)%

7. RoE -11.98%

8. Rev. Trend 99.71%

9. EPS Trend 87.40%

What is the price of ESTC shares?

As of November 25, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 69.07 with a total of 3,492,779 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -21.01%, over one month by -21.69%, over three months by -12.54% and over the past year by -38.04%.

Is ESTC a buy, sell or hold?

Elastic has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ESTC.

Strong Buy: 15
Buy: 7
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ESTC price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	108	56.3%
Analysts Target Price	108	56.3%
ValueRay Target Price	64.9	-6%

ESTC Fundamental Data Overview November 23, 2025

Market Cap USD = 7.44b (7.44b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 38.0228
P/S = 4.7985
P/B = 8.9801
P/EG = 4.165
Beta = 0.951
Revenue TTM = 1.61b USD
EBIT TTM = 25.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 35.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 569.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 6.72m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -780.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.07b USD (7.44b + Debt 20.4m - CCE 1.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.68 (Ebit TTM 25.6m / Interest Expense TTM 37.7m)
FCF Yield = 4.98% (FCF TTM 302.3m / Enterprise Value 6.07b)
FCF Margin = 18.79% (FCF TTM 302.3m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Net Margin = -6.79% (Net Income TTM -109.3m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Gross Margin = 75.54% ((Revenue TTM 1.61b - Cost of Revenue TTM 393.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.91% (prev 76.70%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.45 (Enterprise Value 6.07b / Total Assets 2.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 93.10% (Interest Expense 19.0m / Debt 20.4m)
Taxrate = 4021 % (out of range, set to none) (52.6m / 1.31m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 1.97 (Total Current Assets 1.83b / Total Current Liabilities 927.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 20.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 891.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -22.03 (Net Debt -780.2m / EBITDA 35.4m)
Debt / FCF = -2.58 (Net Debt -780.2m / FCF TTM 302.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 912.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.41% (Net Income -109.3m / Total Assets 2.48b)
RoE = -11.98% (Net Income TTM -109.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 912.2m)
RoCE = 1.73% (EBIT 25.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 912.2m + L.T.Debt 569.7m))
RoIC = 16.70% (EBIT 25.6m / (Assets 2.48b - Curr.Liab 927.0m - Cash 1.40b))
WACC = 11.09% (E(7.44b)/V(7.46b) * Re(11.12%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 11.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 4.08%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.10% ; FCFE base≈261.8m ; Y1≈323.0m ; Y5≈551.1m
Fair Price DCF = 54.09 (DCF Value 5.72b / Shares Outstanding 105.8m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 87.40 | EPS CAGR: 61.94% | SUE: 0.88 | # QB: 6
Revenue Correlation: 99.71 | Revenue CAGR: 17.07% | SUE: 1.02 | # QB: 10

Additional Sources for ESTC Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle