ESTC Stock Analysis: Elastic | NYSE

Search Analytics, Data Visualization, Cybersecurity, Observability

Total Rating 54

Safety 66

Buy Signal 0.45

Software - Application
Industry Rotation: -19.1

Market Cap: 8.76B
Avg Turnover: 257M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility55.2%

VaR 5^th Pctl8.13%

VaR vs Median-8.09%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.10

Rel. Str. IBD82.3

Rel. Str. Peer Group75.8

Character TTM

Beta1.063

Beta Downside1.387

Hurst Exponent0.443

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD67.64%

CAGR/Max DD0.03

CAGR/Mean DD0.07

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 2.98%
EPS Trend: 7.2%

Last SUE: 2.67
Qual. Beats: 2

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 17.37%
Rev. Trend: 100.0%

Last SUE: 1.65
Qual. Beats: 13

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 7.8 years of data

Jan +1.9% 9

Feb +1.4% 9

Mar -20.3% 29

Apr -1.7% 13

May -1.0% 9

Jun +5.5% 22

Jul +1.7% 10

Aug +2.6% 17

Sep -3.6% 35

Oct -0.2% 6

Nov +7.5% 25

Dec -7.5% 10

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ESTC Elastic

Elastic NV (NYSE: ESTC) is a search-focused artificial intelligence company that provides enterprise software platforms deployable across hybrid, public, private, and multi-cloud environments. The company, incorporated in 2012 and headquartered in Amsterdam, Netherlands, operates in the United States and internationally within the Application Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector. Its primary offering, the Elastic Search AI Platform, ingests and stores data from multiple sources and performs search, analysis, and visualization functions.

The product portfolio includes Elasticsearch, which functions as a distributed real-time vector database and analytics engine supporting various data types (textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured); Kibana, the user interface and management layer; Elastic Security, a unified solution for threat prevention, detection, and response; and Elastic Observability, which provides logs analytics, infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, and digital experience monitoring. The company went public on October 5, 2018.

Elastic operates within the enterprise software market, where its hybrid and multi-cloud deployment model addresses a common IT requirement for organizations managing workloads across on-premises and cloud environments. Vector database technology, a core component of the Elasticsearch product, has gained relevance as enterprises adopt AI applications requiring semantic search and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) capabilities with large language models.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Subscription revenue growth driven by vector search and AI demand
Competition intensifies from Cisco Splunk and Datadog in observability
Consumption-based pricing transition impacts near-term revenue growth

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0

Net Income: 375.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.38 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 46.64% < 20% (prev 63.02%; Δ -16.38% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 354.1m > Net Income 375.6m
Net Debt (-840.7m) to EBITDA (63.9m): -13.15 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.81 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.6m) vs 12m ago -1.25% < -2%
Gross Margin: 75.50% > 18% (prev 75.19%; Δ 0.32% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 65.23% > 50% (prev 61.46%; Δ 3.77% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM 51.6m / Interest Expense TTM 75.8m)

Altman Z'' 1.95

A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 1.88b - Total Current Liabilities 1.04b) / Total Assets 3.00b
B: -0.25 (Retained Earnings -748.7m / Total Assets 3.00b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 51.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.76b)
D: 0.76 (Book Value of Equity 1.30b / Total Liabilities 1.71b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.95 = BBB

Beneish M -2.69

DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 236.4m/222.0m, Revenue 1.80b/1.55b)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 75.19% / 75.50%)
AQI: 1.49 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.24)
SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.80b / 1.55b)
TATA: 0.01 (NI 375.6m - CFO 354.1m) / TA 3.00b)
Beneish M = -2.69 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of ESTC shares?

As of September 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 83.39 with a total of 2,354,705 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -13.25%, over one month by +9.22%, over three months by +38.48% and over the past year by -6.37%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 70.00 (which is 16.1% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).

Is ESTC a buy, sell or hold?

Elastic has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ESTC.

StrongBuy: 15
Buy: 7
Hold: 8
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ESTC price?

Analysts Target Price	108.4	30%

Elastic (ESTC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 12 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 8.76b (8.76b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 24.7715
P/E Forward = 25.974
P/S = 4.8634
P/B = 7.0094
P/EG = 4.165
Revenue TTM = 1.80b USD
EBIT TTM = 51.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 63.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 571.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.71m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 620.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 24.6m
Net Debt = -840.7m USD (calculated: Debt 620.4m - CCE 1.46b)
Enterprise Value = 7.92b USD (8.76b + Debt 620.4m - CCE 1.46b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.68 (Ebit TTM 51.6m / Interest Expense TTM 75.8m)
EV/FCF = 11.59x (Enterprise Value 7.92b / FCF TTM 683.9m)
FCF Yield = 8.63% (FCF TTM 683.9m / Enterprise Value 7.92b)
FCF Margin = 37.95% (FCF TTM 683.9m / Revenue TTM 1.80b)
Net Margin = 20.84% (Net Income TTM 375.6m / Revenue TTM 1.80b)
Gross Margin = 75.50% ((Revenue TTM 1.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 441.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.50% (prev 75.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.64 (Enterprise Value 7.92b / Total Assets 3.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 12.21% (Interest Expense 75.8m / Debt 620.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 40.8m (EBIT 51.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.79 (Total Current Assets 1.88b / Total Current Liabilities 1.05b)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 620.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.30b)
Debt / EBITDA = -13.15 (Net Debt -840.7m / EBITDA 63.9m)
Debt / FCF = -1.23 (Net Debt -840.7m / FCF TTM 683.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.60% (Net Income 375.6m / Total Assets 3.00b)
RoE = 35.31% (Net Income TTM 375.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.06b)
RoCE = 3.16% (EBIT 51.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.06b + L.T.Debt 571.2m))
RoIC = 2.17% (NOPAT 40.8m / Invested Capital 1.88b)
WACC = 9.72% (E(8.76b)/V(9.39b) * Re(9.72%) + D(620.4m)/V(9.39b) * Rd(12.21%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 78.89 | Cagr: 1.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.68% ; FCFF base≈485.1m ; Y1≈556.1m ; Y5≈818.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 102.5 (EV 9.93b - Net Debt -840.7m = Equity 10.8b / Shares 105.0m; r=9.72% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 7.18 | EPS CAGR: 2.98% | SUE: 2.67 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 99.96 | Revenue CAGR: 17.37% | SUE: 1.65 | # QB: 13
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.81 | Chg30d=+1.52% | Revisions=+32% | Analysts=28
EPS next Quarter (2027-01-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=-1.08% | Revisions=-32% | Analysts=27
EPS current Year (2027-04-30): EPS=3.36 | Chg30d=+3.59% | Revisions=+88% | GrowthEPS=+30.7% | GrowthRev=+15.3%
EPS next Year (2028-04-30): EPS=3.96 | Chg30d=+2.06% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+17.7% | GrowthRev=+14.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +38% (up=60, down=26)