(ESTC) Elastic - Ratings and Ratios
Search, Analytics, Security, Observability, Visualization
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 53.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 70.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.76% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.68 |
| Alpha | -54.68 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.22 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.526 |
| Beta | 1.363 |
| Beta Downside | 1.125 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.38% |
| Mean DD | 20.45% |
| Median DD | 18.46% |
Description: ESTC Elastic November 04, 2025
Elastic N.V. (NYSE: ESTC) positions itself as a search-artificial-intelligence (AI) company that delivers a unified software platform capable of running in hybrid, public, private or multi-cloud environments worldwide.
The core offering, branded the Elastic Search AI Platform, ingests and stores data from diverse sources and formats, then enables search, analytics and visualization. Key components include the Elasticsearch vector database and analytics engine, the Kibana UI/management console, integration with large-language models (LLMs), Elastic Security for threat detection and response, and Elastic Observability for log analytics, infrastructure monitoring, APM, digital-experience monitoring and AI-driven insights.
From a financial standpoint, Elastic reported FY 2023 revenue of approximately $1.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 21 %, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassing $2 billion and gross margins consistently near 78 %. The subscription-based model now accounts for over 90 % of total revenue, reflecting the broader software-as-a-service (SaaS) shift in the application-software sector. Macro-level drivers include sustained enterprise cloud-spending growth (≈ 20 % YoY) and accelerating adoption of generative AI, which boosts demand for searchable, vector-enabled data stores.
Given Elastic’s strong positioning in the fast-growing AI-augmented search and observability markets, a deeper dive into its competitive moat and valuation metrics on platforms like ValueRay could help clarify the upside potential.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (-109.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 96.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.20pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 55.83% (prev 57.06%; Δ -1.23pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 306.5m > Net Income -109.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-213.3m) to EBITDA (35.4m) ratio: -6.02 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.97 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (106.3m) change vs 12m ago 2.94% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 75.54% (prev 74.02%; Δ 1.52pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 68.36% (prev 61.65%; Δ 6.71pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.68 (EBITDA TTM 35.4m / Interest Expense TTM 37.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.11
| (A) 0.36 = (Total Current Assets 1.83b - Total Current Liabilities 927.0m) / Total Assets 2.48b |
| (B) -0.47 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.18b / Total Assets 2.48b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 25.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.35b |
| (D) -0.76 = Book Value of Equity -1.20b / Total Liabilities 1.59b |
| Total Rating: 0.11 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 80.09
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.56% |
| 3. FCF Margin 18.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.66 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -6.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.47)% |
| 7. RoE -11.98% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 99.80% |
| 9. EPS Trend 74.88% |
What is the price of ESTC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.92%, over one month by -21.65%, over three months by -16.45% and over the past year by -37.14%.
Is ESTC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 15
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ESTC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 106.2 | 49.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 106.2 | 49.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 66 | -7.2% |
ESTC Fundamental Data Overview November 30, 2025
P/E Forward = 30.8642
P/S = 4.6182
P/B = 8.2703
P/EG = 4.165
Beta = 0.951
Revenue TTM = 1.61b USD
EBIT TTM = 25.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 35.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 570.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.72m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 590.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -213.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.63b USD (7.43b + Debt 590.7m - CCE 1.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.68 (Ebit TTM 25.6m / Interest Expense TTM 37.7m)
FCF Yield = 4.56% (FCF TTM 302.3m / Enterprise Value 6.63b)
FCF Margin = 18.79% (FCF TTM 302.3m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Net Margin = -6.79% (Net Income TTM -109.3m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Gross Margin = 75.54% ((Revenue TTM 1.61b - Cost of Revenue TTM 393.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.91% (prev 76.70%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.68 (Enterprise Value 6.63b / Total Assets 2.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.22% (Interest Expense 19.0m / Debt 590.7m)
Taxrate = 4021 % (out of range, set to none) (52.6m / 1.31m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 1.97 (Total Current Assets 1.83b / Total Current Liabilities 927.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 590.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 891.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.02 (Net Debt -213.3m / EBITDA 35.4m)
Debt / FCF = -0.71 (Net Debt -213.3m / FCF TTM 302.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 912.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.41% (Net Income -109.3m / Total Assets 2.48b)
RoE = -11.98% (Net Income TTM -109.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 912.2m)
RoCE = 1.73% (EBIT 25.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 912.2m + L.T.Debt 570.3m))
RoIC = 16.70% (EBIT 25.6m / (Assets 2.48b - Curr.Liab 927.0m - Cash 1.40b))
WACC = 10.23% (E(7.43b)/V(8.02b) * Re(11.04%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 11.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 4.08%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.32% ; FCFE base≈261.8m ; Y1≈323.0m ; Y5≈551.1m
Fair Price DCF = 54.88 (DCF Value 5.78b / Shares Outstanding 105.4m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 74.88 | EPS CAGR: 98.05% | SUE: 0.85 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 99.80 | Revenue CAGR: 18.52% | SUE: 1.02 | # QB: 10
EPS next Quarter (2026-01-31): EPS=0.64 | Chg30d=+0.043 | Revisions Net=+19 | Analysts=26
EPS current Year (2026-04-30): EPS=2.45 | Chg30d=+0.096 | Revisions Net=+23 | Growth EPS=+19.9% | Growth Revenue=+15.9%
EPS next Year (2027-04-30): EPS=2.78 | Chg30d=+0.085 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=+13.9% | Growth Revenue=+13.6%
Additional Sources for ESTC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle