EVH Stock Analysis: Evolent Health | NYSE
Health Information Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 417m USD | 12M Return: -55.8% | US30050B1017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.76M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -8.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Evolent Health, Inc. (NYSE: EVH) is a U.S.-based specialty care management company that supports health plans and providers through a value-based care platform focused on oncology, cardiology, and musculoskeletal conditions. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia and founded in 2011, the company offers a range of administrative services including health plan operations, pharmacy benefits management, risk management, and analytics, alongside its proprietary technology systems Identifi and Machinify Auth Intelligence, the latter an AI tool designed to assist clinicians with prior authorization reviews.
The business model centers on managing total cost of care for specialty conditions under risk-sharing arrangements with payers, a structure that has become increasingly common as insurers and government programs shift away from fee-for-service reimbursement toward outcome-based contracts.
- Centene contract loss pressures oncology revenue outlook
- Medicare Advantage risk audit exposure creates earnings volatility
- Machinify AI prior authorization tool expands health plan client base
| Net Income: -505.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.42 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.61% < 20% (prev 0.22%; Δ 5.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 53.3m > Net Income -505.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (112.5m) vs 12m ago -2.88% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.92% > 18% (prev 15.29%; Δ -2.38% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 94.60% > 50% (prev 89.21%; Δ 5.39% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -6.26 > 6 (EBIT TTM -432.9m / Interest Expense TTM 69.2m) |
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 610.5m - Total Current Liabilities 492.8m) / Total Assets 1.97b |
| B: -0.69 (Retained Earnings -1.37b / Total Assets 1.97b) |
| C: -0.20 (EBIT TTM -432.9m / Avg Total Assets 2.22b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 383.2m / Total Liabilities 1.59b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.93 = D |
| DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 449.1m/358.8m, Revenue 2.10b/2.20b) |
| GMI: 1.18 (GM 15.29% / 12.92%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.74) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 2.10b / 2.20b) |
| TATA: -0.28 (NI -505.0m - CFO 53.3m) / TA 1.97b) |
| Beneish M = -2.74 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.80 with a total of 1,533,926 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.60%, over one month by -19.49%, over three months by -15.18% and over the past year by -55.76%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.30 (which is 13.2% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Evolent Health has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy EVH.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.8 | 51.8% |
P/E Forward = 8.7873
P/S = 0.1989
P/B = 1.0886
P/EG = 1.9281
Revenue TTM = 2.10b USD
EBIT TTM = -432.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -317.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 966.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.54m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 974.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 3.97m
Net Debt = 858.7m USD (calculated: Debt 974.4m - CCE 115.7m)
Enterprise Value = 1.28b USD (417.2m + Debt 974.4m - CCE 115.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.26 (Ebit TTM -432.9m / Interest Expense TTM 69.2m)
EV/FCF = 75.28x (Enterprise Value 1.28b / FCF TTM 16.9m)
FCF Yield = 1.33% (FCF TTM 16.9m / Enterprise Value 1.28b)
FCF Margin = 0.81% (FCF TTM 16.9m / Revenue TTM 2.10b)
Net Margin = -24.08% (Net Income TTM -505.0m / Revenue TTM 2.10b)
Gross Margin = 12.92% ((Revenue TTM 2.10b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.83b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.39% (prev 12.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 1.28b / Total Assets 1.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.10% (Interest Expense 69.2m / Debt 974.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -342.0m (EBIT -432.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.24 (Total Current Assets 610.5m / Total Current Liabilities 492.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.54 (Debt 974.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 383.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.71 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 858.7m / EBITDA -317.0m)
Debt / FCF = 50.67 (Net Debt 858.7m / FCF TTM 16.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 509.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -22.78% (Net Income -505.0m / Total Assets 1.97b)
RoE = -99.16% (Net Income TTM -505.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 509.3m)
RoCE = -29.34% (EBIT -432.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 509.3m + L.T.Debt 966.5m))
RoIC = -24.86% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -342.0m / Invested Capital 1.38b)
WACC = 6.98% (E(417.2m)/V(1.39b) * Re(10.18%) + D(974.4m)/V(1.39b) * Rd(7.10%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -59.28 | Cagr: -0.63%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈16.9m ; Y1≈17.0m ; Y5≈18.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 280.4m - Net Debt 858.7m = -578.3m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -8.01 | Revenue CAGR: -1.03% | SUE: 2.80 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=+12.34% | Revisions=+18% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+1.63% | Revisions=+58% | GrowthEPS=+121.8% | GrowthRev=+40.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+1.58% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+95.8% | GrowthRev=+25.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=18, down=9)