EVH Stock Analysis: Evolent Health | NYSE

Health Information Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 417m USD | 12M Return: -55.8% | US30050B1017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Oncology, Cardiology, Musculoskeletal, Value-Based Care
Total Rating 31
Safety 33
Buy Signal -0.38
Health Information Services
Industry Rotation: -4.0
Market Cap: 417M
Avg Turnover: 9.76M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility75.0%
VaR 5th Pctl10.3%
VaR vs Median-11.3%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Rel. Str. IBD16.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group32.1
Character TTM
Beta1.194
Beta Downside1.936
Hurst Exponent0.719
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD93.75%
CAGR/Max DD-0.51
CAGR/Mean DD-0.86
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of EVH over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": -0.03, "2021-12": 0.08, "2022-03": 0.12, "2022-06": 0.1, "2022-09": 0.59, "2022-12": 0.1, "2023-03": 0.21, "2023-06": 0.14, "2023-09": 0.3, "2023-12": 0.23, "2024-03": 0.34, "2024-06": 0.3, "2024-09": 0.04, "2024-12": -0.02, "2025-03": 0.06, "2025-06": -0.17, "2025-09": 0.05, "2025-12": 0.08, "2026-03": -0.02, "2026-06": -0.11,
Last SUE: -0.08
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of EVH over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 222.471, 2021-12: 248.358, 2022-03: 297.057, 2022-06: 319.939, 2022-09: 352.585, 2022-12: 382.432, 2023-03: 427.69, 2023-06: 469.136, 2023-09: 511.015, 2023-12: 556.055, 2024-03: 639.653, 2024-06: 647.145, 2024-09: 621.401, 2024-12: 646.542, 2025-03: 483.649, 2025-06: 444.328, 2025-09: 479.533, 2025-12: 468.719, 2026-03: 496.246, 2026-06: 652.52,
Rev. CAGR: -1.03%
Rev. Trend: -8.0%
Last SUE: 2.80
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Seasonal Headwind
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.2 years of data

Jan +1.1% 0
Feb +3.0% 30
Mar -4.7% 26
Apr +7.5% 16
May -10.8% 31
Jun +2.8% 30
Jul +0.7% 19
Aug +8.1% 34
Sep +2.0% 0
Oct -12.1% 71
Nov -13.4% 19
Dec -1.2% 24

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: EVH Evolent Health

Evolent Health, Inc. (NYSE: EVH) is a U.S.-based specialty care management company that supports health plans and providers through a value-based care platform focused on oncology, cardiology, and musculoskeletal conditions. Headquartered in Arlington, Virginia and founded in 2011, the company offers a range of administrative services including health plan operations, pharmacy benefits management, risk management, and analytics, alongside its proprietary technology systems Identifi and Machinify Auth Intelligence, the latter an AI tool designed to assist clinicians with prior authorization reviews.

The business model centers on managing total cost of care for specialty conditions under risk-sharing arrangements with payers, a structure that has become increasingly common as insurers and government programs shift away from fee-for-service reimbursement toward outcome-based contracts.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Centene contract loss pressures oncology revenue outlook
  • Medicare Advantage risk audit exposure creates earnings volatility
  • Machinify AI prior authorization tool expands health plan client base
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: -505.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.42 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 5.61% < 20% (prev 0.22%; Δ 5.40% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 53.3m > Net Income -505.0m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.24 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (112.5m) vs 12m ago -2.88% < -2%
Gross Margin: 12.92% > 18% (prev 15.29%; Δ -2.38% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 94.60% > 50% (prev 89.21%; Δ 5.39% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -6.26 > 6 (EBIT TTM -432.9m / Interest Expense TTM 69.2m)
Altman Z'' -2.93
A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 610.5m - Total Current Liabilities 492.8m) / Total Assets 1.97b
B: -0.69 (Retained Earnings -1.37b / Total Assets 1.97b)
C: -0.20 (EBIT TTM -432.9m / Avg Total Assets 2.22b)
D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 383.2m / Total Liabilities 1.59b)
Altman-Z'' = -2.93 = D
Beneish M -2.74
DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 449.1m/358.8m, Revenue 2.10b/2.20b)
GMI: 1.18 (GM 15.29% / 12.92%)
AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.74)
SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 2.10b / 2.20b)
TATA: -0.28 (NI -505.0m - CFO 53.3m) / TA 1.97b)
Beneish M = -2.74 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of EVH shares?

As of September 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.80 with a total of 1,533,926 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.60%, over one month by -19.49%, over three months by -15.18% and over the past year by -55.76%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.30 (which is 13.2% or 2 ATR below the current price).

Is EVH a buy, sell or hold?

Evolent Health has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.57. Therefore, it is recommended to buy EVH.

  • StrongBuy: 9
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the EVH price?
Analysts Target Price 5.8 51.8%
Evolent Health (EVH) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 21 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 417.2m (417.2m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 8.7873
P/S = 0.1989
P/B = 1.0886
P/EG = 1.9281
Revenue TTM = 2.10b USD
EBIT TTM = -432.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -317.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 966.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.54m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 974.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 3.97m
Net Debt = 858.7m USD (calculated: Debt 974.4m - CCE 115.7m)
Enterprise Value = 1.28b USD (417.2m + Debt 974.4m - CCE 115.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -6.26 (Ebit TTM -432.9m / Interest Expense TTM 69.2m)
EV/FCF = 75.28x (Enterprise Value 1.28b / FCF TTM 16.9m)
FCF Yield = 1.33% (FCF TTM 16.9m / Enterprise Value 1.28b)
FCF Margin = 0.81% (FCF TTM 16.9m / Revenue TTM 2.10b)
Net Margin = -24.08% (Net Income TTM -505.0m / Revenue TTM 2.10b)
Gross Margin = 12.92% ((Revenue TTM 2.10b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.83b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.39% (prev 12.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 1.28b / Total Assets 1.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.10% (Interest Expense 69.2m / Debt 974.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -342.0m (EBIT -432.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.24 (Total Current Assets 610.5m / Total Current Liabilities 492.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.54 (Debt 974.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 383.2m)
 Debt / EBITDA = -2.71 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 858.7m / EBITDA -317.0m)
 Debt / FCF = 50.67 (Net Debt 858.7m / FCF TTM 16.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 509.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -22.78% (Net Income -505.0m / Total Assets 1.97b)
RoE = -99.16% (Net Income TTM -505.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 509.3m)
RoCE = -29.34% (EBIT -432.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 509.3m + L.T.Debt 966.5m))
 RoIC = -24.86% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -342.0m / Invested Capital 1.38b)
 WACC = 6.98% (E(417.2m)/V(1.39b) * Re(10.18%) + D(974.4m)/V(1.39b) * Rd(7.10%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -59.28 | Cagr: -0.63%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈16.9m ; Y1≈17.0m ; Y5≈18.0m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 280.4m - Net Debt 858.7m = -578.3m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -8.01 | Revenue CAGR: -1.03% | SUE: 2.80 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=+12.34% | Revisions=+18% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+1.63% | Revisions=+58% | GrowthEPS=+121.8% | GrowthRev=+40.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+1.58% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+95.8% | GrowthRev=+25.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=18, down=9)