EXPD Stock Analysis: Expeditors International of | NYSE
Integrated Freight & Logistics | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 21.102m USD | 12M Return: 42.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 217M
EPS Trend: 39.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 27.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (NYSE: EXPD) is a global logistics services provider operating across the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India. Founded in 1979 and headquartered in Bellevue, Washington, the company went public in March 1990 and is classified within the Industrials sector under Air Freight & Logistics.
EXPDs service portfolio spans airfreight consolidation and forwarding, ocean freight consolidation and direct forwarding, customs brokerage, intra-continental ground transportation, warehousing and distribution, and order management. It also offers customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, cargo monitoring and tracking, trade compliance consulting, and cargo security solutions.
The company acts as either a freight consolidator or an agent for the airlines carrying its shipments, and provides ancillary services such as shipping and customs documentation, packing, crating, insurance, and export/import regulatory documentation.
As a freight forwarder, EXPD operates on an asset-light business model, arranging the movement of cargo without owning the underlying aircraft, vessels, or trucks, which is characteristic of the global air freight and logistics industry.
- Trans-Pacific freight rate declines pressure operating margins
- Air freight volumes weaken amid escalating global trade tensions
- Capital returns through buybacks and dividends boost earnings per share
| Net Income: 836.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.19 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.16 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.40% < 20% (prev 14.92%; Δ -0.52% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 973.1m > Net Income 836.6m |
| Net Debt (-751.5m) to EBITDA (1.17b): -0.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.79 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (134.1m) vs 12m ago -3.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.23% > 18% (prev 12.82%; Δ 7.41% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 234.5% > 50% (prev 232.5%; Δ 2.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.34 (Total Current Assets 3.65b - Total Current Liabilities 2.04b) / Total Assets 4.78b |
| B: 0.52 (Retained Earnings 2.48b / Total Assets 4.78b) |
| C: 0.23 (EBIT TTM 1.11b / Avg Total Assets 4.77b) |
| D: 0.92 (Book Value of Equity 2.28b / Total Liabilities 2.50b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.42 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 2.06b/1.90b, Revenue 11.2b/11.1b) |
| GMI: 0.63 (GM 12.82% / 20.23%) |
| AQI: 1.36 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 11.2b / 11.1b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 836.6m - CFO 973.1m) / TA 4.78b) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 162.98 with a total of 700,865 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.15%, over one month by +4.24%, over three months by +16.19% and over the past year by +42.87%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 154.60 (which is 5.1% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Expeditors International of has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.44. Therefore, it is recommended to sell EXPD.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 3
- StrongSell: 3
| Analysts Target Price | 146.4 | -10.2% |
P/E Trailing = 26.0226
P/E Forward = 25.5102
P/S = 1.8865
P/B = 9.2375
P/EG = 3.7101
Revenue TTM = 11.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.11b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.17b USD
Long Term Debt = 451.2m USD (estimated: total debt 565.0m - short term 113.8m)
Short Term Debt = 113.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 565.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 565.0m already included)
Net Debt = -751.5m USD (calculated: Debt 565.0m - CCE 1.32b)
Enterprise Value = 20.4b USD (21.1b + Debt 565.0m - CCE 1.32b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.11b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 22.11x (Enterprise Value 20.4b / FCF TTM 920.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.52% (FCF TTM 920.6m / Enterprise Value 20.4b)
FCF Margin = 8.23% (FCF TTM 920.6m / Revenue TTM 11.2b)
Net Margin = 7.48% (Net Income TTM 836.6m / Revenue TTM 11.2b)
Gross Margin = 20.23% ((Revenue TTM 11.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.92b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.92% (prev 14.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.26 (Enterprise Value 20.4b / Total Assets 4.78b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 565.0m)
Taxrate = 25.49% (286.7m / 1.12b)
NOPAT = 826.8m (EBIT 1.11b * (1 - 25.49%))
Current Ratio = 1.79 (Total Current Assets 3.65b / Total Current Liabilities 2.04b)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 565.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.64 (Net Debt -751.5m / EBITDA 1.17b)
Debt / FCF = -0.82 (Net Debt -751.5m / FCF TTM 920.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.54% (Net Income 836.6m / Total Assets 4.78b)
RoE = 36.71% (Net Income TTM 836.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.28b)
RoCE = 40.64% (EBIT 1.11b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.28b + L.T.Debt 451.2m))
RoIC = 36.03% (NOPAT 826.8m / Invested Capital 2.29b)
WACC = 7.30% (E(21.1b)/V(21.7b) * Re(7.50%) + D(565.0m)/V(21.7b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -3.68%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈858.6m ; Y1≈984.2m ; Y5≈1.45b
[DCF] Fair Price = 172.4 (EV 21.8b - Net Debt -751.5m = Equity 22.5b / Shares 130.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 39.80 | EPS CAGR: 5.33% | SUE: 3.59 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 27.65 | Revenue CAGR: 3.22% | SUE: 0.98 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.81 | Chg30d=+0.66% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.81 | Chg30d=+0.24% | Revisions=+76% | GrowthEPS=+14.4% | GrowthRev=+4.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.93 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=+76% | GrowthEPS=+1.8% | GrowthRev=+3.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +76%