(FERG) Ferguson - Overview
Stock: Plumbing, Pipe, Valves, HVAC, Water
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.67% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.22% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -12.22% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 32.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.26% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.09 |
| Alpha | 29.27 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.953 |
| Beta Downside | 0.639 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.92% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.72 |
Description: FERG Ferguson January 30, 2026
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:FERG) is the largest U.S.-based wholesale distributor of plumbing, HVAC, and water-treatment products, serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers across the United States and Canada. The company sells a broad portfolio-including pipe, valves, fittings, lighting, appliances, and wastewater-treatment equipment-through a network of distribution centers, branch locations, showroom consultants, and e-commerce platforms, and it adds value with design-to-build services such as virtual design, kitting, and project-management support.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue $12.1 billion (up 5.2% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $1.45 billion (EBITDA margin 12.0%), diluted EPS $9.68, and inventory turnover 5.3×, indicating efficient supply-chain execution. Macro drivers remain favorable: U.S. construction spending rose 4.1% YoY in Q4 2025, while residential building permits increased 3.8% YoY, supporting demand for plumbing and HVAC installations. The North American HVAC market is projected to grow at a 5.1% CAGR through 2029, and federal water-infrastructure funding is expected to exceed $30 billion over the next five years, both of which underpin Ferguson’s growth outlook.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s sector-specific analytics worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income: 1.96b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.65 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.05% < 20% (prev 13.08%; Δ 1.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 2.01b > Net Income 1.96b |
| Net Debt (5.49b) to EBITDA (3.15b): 1.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.88 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (196.6m) vs 12m ago -2.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.81% > 18% (prev 0.31%; Δ 3051 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 180.4% > 50% (prev 176.2%; Δ 4.19% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.60 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.15b / Interest Expense TTM 190.0m) |
Altman Z'' 4.68
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 10.03b - Total Current Liabilities 5.34b) / Total Assets 17.69b |
| B: 0.40 (Retained Earnings 7.12b / Total Assets 17.69b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 2.77b / Avg Total Assets 17.28b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 6.14b / Total Liabilities 11.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.68 = AA |
Beneish M -3.02
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 3.81b/3.64b, Revenue 31.16b/29.70b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 30.81% / 30.51%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 31.16b / 29.70b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 1.96b - CFO 2.01b) / TA 17.69b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.02 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of FERG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.42%, over one month by +13.20%, over three months by +4.49% and over the past year by +42.44%.
Is FERG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the FERG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 261.4 | 1.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 261.4 | 1.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 320.5 | 24.4% |
FERG Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.9298
P/S = 1.6428
P/B = 8.3661
P/EG = 1.6631
Revenue TTM = 31.16b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.77b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.12b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 461.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.49b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 56.68b USD (51.19b + Debt 6.02b - CCE 526.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.60 (Ebit TTM 2.77b / Interest Expense TTM 190.0m)
EV/FCF = 34.15x (Enterprise Value 56.68b / FCF TTM 1.66b)
FCF Yield = 2.93% (FCF TTM 1.66b / Enterprise Value 56.68b)
FCF Margin = 5.33% (FCF TTM 1.66b / Revenue TTM 31.16b)
Net Margin = 6.28% (Net Income TTM 1.96b / Revenue TTM 31.16b)
Gross Margin = 30.81% ((Revenue TTM 31.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 21.56b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.68% (prev 31.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.20 (Enterprise Value 56.68b / Total Assets 17.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.76% (Interest Expense 46.0m / Debt 6.02b)
Taxrate = 19.94% (142.0m / 712.0m)
NOPAT = 2.22b (EBIT 2.77b * (1 - 19.94%))
Current Ratio = 1.88 (Total Current Assets 10.03b / Total Current Liabilities 5.34b)
Debt / Equity = 0.99 (Debt 6.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.06b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.74 (Net Debt 5.49b / EBITDA 3.15b)
Debt / FCF = 3.31 (Net Debt 5.49b / FCF TTM 1.66b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.73b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.32% (Net Income 1.96b / Total Assets 17.69b)
RoE = 34.15% (Net Income TTM 1.96b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.73b)
RoCE = 28.17% (EBIT 2.77b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.73b + L.T.Debt 4.12b))
RoIC = 22.41% (NOPAT 2.22b / Invested Capital 9.91b)
WACC = 8.50% (E(51.19b)/V(57.20b) * Re(9.43%) + D(6.02b)/V(57.20b) * Rd(0.76%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 9.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.97%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.32% ; FCFF base≈1.52b ; Y1≈1.75b ; Y5≈2.45b
Fair Price DCF = 162.7 (EV 38.15b - Net Debt 5.49b = Equity 32.66b / Shares 200.7m; r=8.50% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 17.66% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 7.89 | EPS CAGR: 10.25% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 42.26 | Revenue CAGR: 6.25% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.25 | Chg30d=-0.036 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-07-31): EPS=10.33 | Chg30d=+0.099 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+10.9% | Growth Revenue=+5.4%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.21 | Chg30d=+0.031 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+7.2% | Growth Revenue=+4.4%