FERG Stock Analysis: Ferguson | NYSE
Industrial Distribution | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 43.887m USD | 12M Return: -5.2% | US31488V1070 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 304M
EPS Trend: 90.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.7%
Qual. Beats: -3
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: FERG) is a large-cap U.S.-listed distributor of essential water and air solutions, operating primarily in the United States and Canada. The company supplies plumbing, pipe, valves and fittings, HVAC, appliances, lighting, and water and wastewater treatment products to residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure customers. Beyond product distribution, Ferguson offers value-added services including virtual design, fabrication, valve actuation, pre-assembly, kitting, installation, and project management, along with after-sales support such as warranty, credit, project-based billing, and maintenance and repair services. Products are sold through an integrated network of distribution centers, branches, counter service and sales associates, showroom consultants, and e-commerce channels. Headquartered in Newport News, Virginia, and founded in 1953, Ferguson sits within the GICS Industrials sector under the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry, operating a B2B distribution model that targets specialized professional contractors rather than end consumers.
- US residential repair and remodel demand softens
- Non-residential construction backlog supports pipe, valves and fittings pricing
- Water and wastewater infrastructure spending accelerates
- HVAC distribution margins face competitive pricing pressure
- Canada housing weakness pressures plumbing product volumes
| Net Income: 2.04b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.49 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.58% < 20% (prev 13.39%; Δ 1.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 1.69b > Net Income 2.04b |
| Net Debt (7.96b) to EBITDA (3.23b): 2.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (194.0m) vs 12m ago -2.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.55% > 18% (prev 30.67%; Δ -0.12% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 172.2% > 50% (prev 173.5%; Δ -1.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.84b / Interest Expense TTM 191.0m) |
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 11.0b - Total Current Liabilities 6.38b) / Total Assets 19.3b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 7.89b / Total Assets 19.3b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 2.84b / Avg Total Assets 18.5b) |
| D: 0.47 (Book Value of Equity 6.20b / Total Liabilities 13.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.44 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 4.25b/3.96b, Revenue 31.9b/30.8b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 30.67% / 30.55%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 31.9b / 30.8b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 2.04b - CFO 1.69b) / TA 19.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 230.74 with a total of 1,177,215 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.22%, over one month by +1.51%, over three months by -0.18% and over the past year by -5.22%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 215.90 (which is 6.4% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Ferguson has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FERG.
- StrongBuy: 12
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 283.2 | 22.7% |
P/E Trailing = 22.3287
P/E Forward = 16.9492
P/S = 1.3956
P/B = 6.6843
P/EG = 1.3291
Revenue TTM = 31.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.84b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.23b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.46b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 448.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.39b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.98b
Net Debt = 7.96b USD (calculated: Debt 8.39b - CCE 437.0m)
Enterprise Value = 51.8b USD (43.9b + Debt 8.39b - CCE 437.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.88 (Ebit TTM 2.84b / Interest Expense TTM 191.0m)
EV/FCF = 41.02x (Enterprise Value 51.8b / FCF TTM 1.26b)
FCF Yield = 2.44% (FCF TTM 1.26b / Enterprise Value 51.8b)
FCF Margin = 3.96% (FCF TTM 1.26b / Revenue TTM 31.9b)
Net Margin = 6.39% (Net Income TTM 2.04b / Revenue TTM 31.9b)
Gross Margin = 30.55% ((Revenue TTM 31.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 22.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.99% (prev 31.02%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.69 (Enterprise Value 51.8b / Total Assets 19.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.28% (Interest Expense 191.0m / Debt 8.39b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (613.0m / 2.65b)
NOPAT = 2.19b (EBIT 2.84b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 11.0b / Total Current Liabilities 6.38b)
Debt / Equity = 1.35 (Debt 8.39b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.46 (Net Debt 7.96b / EBITDA 3.23b)
Debt / FCF = 6.29 (Net Debt 7.96b / FCF TTM 1.26b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.01% (Net Income 2.04b / Total Assets 19.3b)
RoE = 34.00% (Net Income TTM 2.04b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.00b)
RoCE = 27.20% (EBIT 2.84b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.00b + L.T.Debt 4.46b))
RoIC = 16.90% (NOPAT 2.19b / Invested Capital 12.9b)
WACC = 8.36% (E(43.9b)/V(52.3b) * Re(9.62%) + D(8.39b)/V(52.3b) * Rd(2.28%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.89 | Cagr: -2.04%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.08% ; FCFF base≈1.40b ; Y1≈1.23b ; Y5≈991.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 41.06 (EV 15.9b - Net Debt 7.96b = Equity 7.94b / Shares 193.5m; r=8.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.73 | EPS CAGR: 7.40% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.71 | Revenue CAGR: 3.42% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.29 | Chg30d=-0.28% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.41 | Chg30d=-0.56% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+7.8% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
EPS next Year (2027-07-31): EPS=12.19 | Chg30d=+1.12% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+11.0% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)