(FERG) Ferguson - NYSE
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Distribution | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 45.684m USD | Total Return: 13.4% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 332M
EPS Trend: 86.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.3%
Qual. Beats: -2
Warnings
Choppy
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Ferguson plc (NYSE: FERG) is a leading North American distributor of plumbing, HVAC, and waterworks products. The company serves residential, commercial, and infrastructure sectors through an integrated network of distribution centers, branches, and e-commerce platforms. Its business model extends beyond product sales to include value-added services such as virtual design, fabrication, and project management.
Operating within the fragmented industrial distribution sector, Ferguson benefits from a hub-and-spoke logistics model that ensures high product availability for professional contractors. The company’s revenue is diversified across both new construction and the typically more resilient repair, maintenance, and improvement (RMI) markets. For a deeper look at how these market segments impact long-term valuation, consider exploring the data on ValueRay.
- US residential housing starts and remodeling activity drive core plumbing volumes
- Non-residential infrastructure spending levels dictate demand for industrial pipe and valve solutions
- Strategic bolt-on acquisitions accelerate market share expansion and geographic reach
- Fluctuations in copper and steel pricing impact gross margins and inventory valuation
- Federal interest rate pivots influence commercial construction financing and project backlogs
| Net Income: 2.07b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.12% < 20% (prev 12.59%; Δ 1.53% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.24b > Net Income 2.07b |
| Net Debt (7.22b) to EBITDA (3.32b): 2.17 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (194.8m) vs 12m ago -1.86% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.74% > 18% (prev 30.46%; Δ 0.28% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 180.5% > 50% (prev 175.0%; Δ 5.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.94b / Interest Expense TTM 189.0m) |
| A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 10.2b - Total Current Liabilities 5.70b) / Total Assets 17.8b |
| B: 0.42 (Retained Earnings 7.40b / Total Assets 17.8b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 2.94b / Avg Total Assets 17.5b) |
| D: 0.49 (Book Value of Equity 5.87b / Total Liabilities 11.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.65 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 3.67b/3.75b, Revenue 31.6b/30.2b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 30.46% / 30.74%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 31.6b / 30.2b) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 2.07b - CFO 1.24b) / TA 17.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of June 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 238.35 with a total of 2,049,600 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.53%,
over one month by +8.37%,
over three months by +7.85% and
over the past year by +13.37%.
Ferguson has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FERG.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 284.6 | 19.4% |
P/E Trailing = 23.1622
P/E Forward = 18.7266
P/S = 1.4709
P/B = 7.7773
P/EG = 1.5089
Revenue TTM = 31.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.94b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.32b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.75b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 613.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.95b
Net Debt = 7.22b USD (calculated: Debt 8.04b - CCE 820.0m)
Enterprise Value = 52.9b USD (45.7b + Debt 8.04b - CCE 820.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.56 (Ebit TTM 2.94b / Interest Expense TTM 189.0m)
EV/FCF = 52.45x (Enterprise Value 52.9b / FCF TTM 1.01b)
FCF Yield = 1.91% (FCF TTM 1.01b / Enterprise Value 52.9b)
FCF Margin = 3.19% (FCF TTM 1.01b / Revenue TTM 31.6b)
Net Margin = 6.55% (Net Income TTM 2.07b / Revenue TTM 31.6b)
Gross Margin = 30.74% ((Revenue TTM 31.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 21.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.02% (prev 29.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.97 (Enterprise Value 52.9b / Total Assets 17.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.35% (Interest Expense 189.0m / Debt 8.04b)
Taxrate = 22.59% (605.0m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 2.28b (EBIT 2.94b * (1 - 22.59%))
Current Ratio = 1.78 (Total Current Assets 10.2b / Total Current Liabilities 5.70b)
Debt / Equity = 1.37 (Debt 8.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.17 (Net Debt 7.22b / EBITDA 3.32b)
Debt / FCF = 7.16 (Net Debt 7.22b / FCF TTM 1.01b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.83% (Net Income 2.07b / Total Assets 17.8b)
RoE = 35.11% (Net Income TTM 2.07b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.90b)
RoCE = 30.45% (EBIT 2.94b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.90b + L.T.Debt 3.75b))
RoIC = 19.15% (NOPAT 2.28b / Invested Capital 11.9b)
WACC = 9.01% (E(45.7b)/V(53.7b) * Re(10.27%) + D(8.04b)/V(53.7b) * Rd(2.35%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 10.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -2.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.68% ; FCFF base≈1.17b ; Y1≈1.02b ; Y5≈826.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 24.48 (EV 12.0b - Net Debt 7.22b = Equity 4.75b / Shares 193.9m; r=9.01% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 86.80 | EPS CAGR: 6.72% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.26 | Revenue CAGR: 2.89% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.29 | Chg30d=-0.38% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=18
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.30 | Chg30d=+1.54% | Revisions=+36% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-07-31): EPS=10.33 | Chg30d=+0.96% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+10.9% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
EPS next Year (2027-07-31): EPS=12.19 | Chg30d=+1.12% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+11.0% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36%