(FICO) Fair Isaac - Ratings and Ratios
Credit Scores, Analytics Software, Decision Management, Fraud Detection
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 57.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.91% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.42 |
| Alpha | -38.88 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.96 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.485 |
| Beta | 0.970 |
| Beta Downside | 1.050 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.96% |
| Mean DD | 10.24% |
| Median DD | 3.61% |
Description: FICO Fair Isaac September 29, 2025
Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) builds analytics-driven software that automates, enhances, and connects decision-making across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The business is split into two reporting segments: Scores, which supplies B2B and B2C predictive credit and other risk scores (including the myFICO.com subscription service); and Software, which delivers pre-configured decision-management suites for functions such as account origination, fraud detection, customer engagement, and marketing, together with a modular FICO Platform that can be customized for advanced analytics use cases.
The Software portfolio includes a breadth of named products-FICO Decision Modeler, Blaze Advisor, Xpress Optimization, Analytics Workbench, Data Orchestrator, DMP Streaming, Business Outcome Simulator, Decision Optimizer, TRIAD Customer Manager, Fraud Solutions, Originations, Customer Communication Service, Strategy Director, Analytic Services, and related implementation services. These tools are sold primarily through a direct sales force, supplemented by indirect partners and online channels.
Founded in 1956 and headquartered in Bozeman, Montana, the firm rebranded from Fair Isaac & Company to Fair Isaac Corporation in 1992. Its GICS classification is Application Software, and it trades as a common stock on the NYSE under the ticker FICO.
Recent public filings show FY 2024 revenue of roughly $1.73 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12 percent, driven largely by growth in the Software segment’s AI-enabled decision solutions. The global credit-scoring market is estimated at $15 billion and is expanding at ~6 % CAGR, propelled by fintech adoption and tighter regulatory scrutiny of lending practices. A key sector driver is the accelerating integration of machine-learning models into risk-management workflows, which raises the marginal value of platforms that can orchestrate data, models, and real-time decisions.
For a deeper quantitative comparison of FICO’s valuation metrics against peers, the ValueRay platform offers a concise dashboard worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (651.9m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 119.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.40 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.68pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -7.24% (prev 13.81%; Δ -21.04pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.42 (>3.0%) and CFO 778.8m > Net Income 651.9m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.94b) to EBITDA (911.3m) ratio: 3.23 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.83 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (24.2m) change vs 12m ago -3.66% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 82.23% (prev 79.69%; Δ 2.54pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 111.0% (prev 99.98%; Δ 11.06pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 6.71 (EBITDA TTM 911.3m / Interest Expense TTM 133.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 12.09
| (A) -0.08 = (Total Current Assets 705.2m - Total Current Liabilities 849.2m) / Total Assets 1.87b |
| (B) 2.44 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.55b / Total Assets 1.87b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: 2.44 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.50 = EBIT TTM 896.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.79b |
| (D) 1.23 = Book Value of Equity 4.46b / Total Liabilities 3.61b |
| Total Rating: 12.09 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 79.09
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.63% |
| 3. FCF Margin 37.57% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -1.76 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.23 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 42.02)% |
| 7. RoE -48.24% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.12% |
| 9. EPS Trend 92.45% |
What is the price of FICO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.46%, over one month by +6.66%, over three months by +26.62% and over the past year by -23.65%.
Is FICO a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the FICO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2031.8 | 13% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2031.8 | 13% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 2276.2 | 26.6% |
FICO Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 67.5557
P/E Forward = 41.6667
P/S = 21.5601
P/B = 82.3284
P/EG = 1.6087
Beta = 1.296
Revenue TTM = 1.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 896.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 911.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.66b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 399.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.94b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 45.86b USD (42.92b + Debt 3.07b - CCE 134.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.71 (Ebit TTM 896.4m / Interest Expense TTM 133.6m)
FCF Yield = 1.63% (FCF TTM 748.1m / Enterprise Value 45.86b)
FCF Margin = 37.57% (FCF TTM 748.1m / Revenue TTM 1.99b)
Net Margin = 32.75% (Net Income TTM 651.9m / Revenue TTM 1.99b)
Gross Margin = 82.23% ((Revenue TTM 1.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 353.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.32% (prev 83.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 24.55 (Enterprise Value 45.86b / Total Assets 1.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.30% (Interest Expense 39.9m / Debt 3.07b)
Taxrate = 23.43% (47.4m / 202.5m)
NOPAT = 686.3m (EBIT 896.4m * (1 - 23.43%))
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 705.2m / Total Current Liabilities 849.2m)
Debt / Equity = -1.76 (negative equity) (Debt 3.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.75b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.23 (Net Debt 2.94b / EBITDA 911.3m)
Debt / FCF = 3.93 (Net Debt 2.94b / FCF TTM 748.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 34.90% (Net Income 651.9m / Total Assets 1.87b)
RoE = -48.24% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 651.9m / Total Stockholder Equity -1.35b)
RoCE = 68.70% (EBIT 896.4m / Capital Employed (Equity -1.35b + L.T.Debt 2.66b))
RoIC = 51.04% (NOPAT 686.3m / Invested Capital 1.34b)
WACC = 9.02% (E(42.92b)/V(46.00b) * Re(9.59%) + D(3.07b)/V(46.00b) * Rd(1.30%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.79% ; FCFE base≈691.8m ; Y1≈779.8m ; Y5≈1.05b
Fair Price DCF = 586.2 (DCF Value 13.90b / Shares Outstanding 23.7m; 5y FCF grow 14.78% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 92.45 | EPS CAGR: 21.75% | SUE: 1.08 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 96.12 | Revenue CAGR: 13.35% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for FICO Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle