(FLO) Flowers Foods - Overview
Sector: Consumer Defensive | Industry: Packaged Foods | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 1.651m USD | Total Return: -50.3% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 56.4M
EPS Trend: -77.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 79.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Altman Z'' 0.89 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) is a major producer of packaged bakery goods in the United States, operating a portfolio of established brands including Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread (DKB), and Canyon Bakehouse. The company utilizes a dual distribution model consisting of direct-store-delivery (DSD) and warehouse delivery systems to reach retail, foodservice, and institutional channels. This capital-intensive business model relies on a vast network of bakeries and independent distributors to maintain product freshness, a critical factor in the fresh bread category.
The packaged foods sector is characterized by high competition and significant exposure to commodity price volatility, particularly in wheat, energy, and logistics costs. Flowers Foods has mitigated some of these pressures through a strategic shift toward premium, organic, and gluten-free brands which typically command higher margins than private-label alternatives. Investors can analyze the fundamental drivers of these margins by reviewing the detailed financial data available on ValueRay.
Founded in 1919 and headquartered in Georgia, the company serves a diverse client base ranging from national supermarkets and quick-serve restaurant chains to governmental institutions. Its product line extends beyond traditional loaves to include tortillas, snack cakes, and frozen rolls, ensuring broad market penetration across multiple grocery aisles.
- Premium brand growth in Nature’s Own and Dave’s Killer Bread drives margin expansion
- Fluctuating wheat and energy costs significantly impact quarterly gross profit margins
- Shift toward private label alternatives threatens market share in the bread category
- Direct-store-delivery efficiency and labor costs dictate long-term operational performance levels
- Strategic acquisitions in gluten-free segments accelerate expansion into high-growth health categories
| Net Income: 72.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.04 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.30% < 20% (prev 2.88%; Δ -7.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 428.5m > Net Income 72.9m |
| Net Debt (2.37b) to EBITDA (351.4m): 6.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (212.6m) vs 12m ago 0.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.99% > 18% (prev 0.50%; Δ 4.75k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 124.0% > 50% (prev 117.4%; Δ 6.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.34 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 351.4m / Interest Expense TTM 77.5m) |
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 761.5m - Total Current Liabilities 988.2m) / Total Assets 4.18b |
| B: 0.20 (Retained Earnings 839.7m / Total Assets 4.18b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 181.4m / Avg Total Assets 4.25b) |
| D: 0.29 (Book Value of Equity 841.6m / Total Liabilities 2.88b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.89 = B |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 401.2m/374.1m, Revenue 5.27b/5.08b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 47.99% / 49.65%) |
| AQI: 1.51 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.54) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 5.27b / 5.08b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 72.9m - CFO 428.5m) / TA 4.18b) |
| Beneish M = -2.72 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of May 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.79 with a total of 9,514,593 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.28%,
over one month by -12.96%,
over three months by -19.23% and
over the past year by -50.27%.
Flowers Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.13. Therefore, it is recommended to hold FLO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 9.3 | 18.7% |
P/E Trailing = 22.2571
P/E Forward = 22.8833
P/S = 0.3131
P/B = 1.2924
P/EG = 6.0953
Revenue TTM = 5.27b USD
EBIT TTM = 181.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 351.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.32b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 473.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.37b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 318.9m
Net Debt = 2.37b USD (calculated: Debt 2.37b - CCE 11.5k)
Enterprise Value = 4.02b USD (1.65b + Debt 2.37b - CCE 11.5k)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.34 (Ebit TTM 181.4m / Interest Expense TTM 77.5m)
EV/FCF = 13.12x (Enterprise Value 4.02b / FCF TTM 306.4m)
FCF Yield = 7.62% (FCF TTM 306.4m / Enterprise Value 4.02b)
FCF Margin = 5.81% (FCF TTM 306.4m / Revenue TTM 5.27b)
Net Margin = 1.38% (Net Income TTM 72.9m / Revenue TTM 5.27b)
Gross Margin = 47.99% ((Revenue TTM 5.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.74b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.39% (prev 45.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 4.02b / Total Assets 4.18b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.27% (Interest Expense 77.5m / Debt 2.37b)
Taxrate = 29.98% (18.0m / 60.1m)
NOPAT = 127.0m (EBIT 181.4m * (1 - 29.98%))
Current Ratio = 0.77 (Total Current Assets 761.5m / Total Current Liabilities 988.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.82 (Debt 2.37b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.30b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.74 (Net Debt 2.37b / EBITDA 351.4m)
Debt / FCF = 7.73 (Net Debt 2.37b / FCF TTM 306.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.36b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.71% (Net Income 72.9m / Total Assets 4.18b)
RoE = 5.35% (Net Income TTM 72.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.36b)
RoCE = 6.75% (EBIT 181.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.36b + L.T.Debt 1.32b))
RoIC = 3.47% (NOPAT 127.0m / Invested Capital 3.67b)
WACC = 4.17% (E(1.65b)/V(4.02b) * Re(6.87%) + D(2.37b)/V(4.02b) * Rd(3.27%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 6.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -24.44 | Cagr: 0.06%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.90% ; FCFF base≈311.4m ; Y1≈302.4m ; Y5≈299.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.98 (EV 4.70b - Net Debt 2.37b = Equity 2.33b / Shares 212.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -3.91% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -77.35 | EPS CAGR: -28.36% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 79.62 | Revenue CAGR: 1.33% | SUE: -0.44 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=-8.54% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-2.41% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.84 | Chg30d=-0.42% | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=-23.3% | GrowthRev=-1.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=-0.83% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=-0.3% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%