FLO Stock Analysis: Flowers Foods | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.188m USD | 12M Return: -49.4% | US3434981011 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 46.8M
EPS Trend: -75.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 77.3%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE: FLO) is a U.S. packaged bakery food producer and marketer, offering fresh breads, buns, rolls, bagels, English muffins, tortillas, baking mixes, and frozen bakery items, along with snack cakes, cookies, and crackers. The company sells its products under well-known brands such as Natures Own, Wonder, DKB, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, and Tastykake, distributing through a combination of direct-store-delivery and warehouse delivery systems, supported by its own network of bakeries. Its customer base spans retail grocers, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, foodservice distributors, quick-serve restaurant chains, and government/institutional accounts such as schools, military commissaries, and prisons.
Founded in 1919 and headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, Flowers Foods is a small-cap player in the Consumer Staples sector (GICS sub-industry: Packaged Foods & Meats). As a producer of branded, perishable packaged bakery goods, the company operates in a category characterized by high distribution intensity, where route-based direct-store-delivery networks are a key competitive moat alongside brand loyalty and shelf placement in grocery and foodservice channels.
- Wheat and commodity input costs pressure bakery margins
- Simple Mills and Canyon Bakehouse acquisitions drive premium category growth
- Private label competition limits pricing power in core fresh bread
| Net Income: 55.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.44% < 20% (prev 2.97%; Δ -7.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 431.1m > Net Income 55.2m |
| Net Debt (2.27b) to EBITDA (324.9m): 6.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (212.1m) vs 12m ago 0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.89% > 18% (prev 49.38%; Δ -1.49% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 122.5% > 50% (prev 117.4%; Δ 5.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.04 > 6 (EBIT TTM 156.2m / Interest Expense TTM 76.5m) |
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 786.3m - Total Current Liabilities 1.02b) / Total Assets 4.19b |
| B: 0.20 (Retained Earnings 853.8m / Total Assets 4.19b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 156.2m / Avg Total Assets 4.27b) |
| D: 0.46 (Book Value of Equity 1.32b / Total Liabilities 2.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.03 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 385.0m/391.7m, Revenue 5.22b/5.10b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 49.38% / 47.89%) |
| AQI: 0.19 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.54) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 5.22b / 5.10b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 55.2m - CFO 431.1m) / TA 4.19b) |
| Beneish M = -3.50 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.81 with a total of 5,073,977 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.31%, over one month by -4.49%, over three months by -26.59% and over the past year by -49.37%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.40 (which is 7.1% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Flowers Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.20. Therefore, it is recommended to hold FLO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.9 | 36% |
P/E Trailing = 20.7407
P/E Forward = 22.8833
P/S = 0.2273
P/B = 0.9309
P/EG = 6.0953
Revenue TTM = 5.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 156.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 324.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 479.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.32b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 317.1m
Net Debt = 2.27b USD (calculated: Debt 2.32b - CCE 52.8m)
Enterprise Value = 3.46b USD (1.19b + Debt 2.32b - CCE 52.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.04 (Ebit TTM 156.2m / Interest Expense TTM 76.5m)
EV/FCF = 10.95x (Enterprise Value 3.46b / FCF TTM 315.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.13% (FCF TTM 315.9m / Enterprise Value 3.46b)
FCF Margin = 6.05% (FCF TTM 315.9m / Revenue TTM 5.22b)
Net Margin = 1.06% (Net Income TTM 55.2m / Revenue TTM 5.22b)
Gross Margin = 47.89% ((Revenue TTM 5.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.72b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.45% (prev 49.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 3.46b / Total Assets 4.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.29% (Interest Expense 76.5m / Debt 2.32b)
Taxrate = 30.79% (24.5m / 79.7m)
NOPAT = 108.1m (EBIT 156.2m * (1 - 30.79%))
Current Ratio = 0.77 (Total Current Assets 786.3m / Total Current Liabilities 1.02b)
Debt / Equity = 1.76 (Debt 2.32b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.99 (Net Debt 2.27b / EBITDA 324.9m)
Debt / FCF = 7.19 (Net Debt 2.27b / FCF TTM 315.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.29% (Net Income 55.2m / Total Assets 4.19b)
RoE = 4.13% (Net Income TTM 55.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.34b)
RoCE = 5.95% (EBIT 156.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.34b + L.T.Debt 1.29b))
RoIC = 3.01% (NOPAT 108.1m / Invested Capital 3.59b)
WACC = 3.80% (E(1.19b)/V(3.51b) * Re(6.79%) + D(2.32b)/V(3.51b) * Rd(3.29%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 6.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -16.42 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈342.9m ; Y1≈300.7m ; Y5≈243.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.68 (EV 3.90b - Net Debt 2.27b = Equity 1.63b / Shares 212.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -75.07 | EPS CAGR: -7.39% | SUE: -0.73 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.34 | Revenue CAGR: 1.20% | SUE: -2.69 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=-10.88% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=-5.54% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-28.2% | GrowthRev=-3.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.71 | Chg30d=-13.13% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-8.7% | GrowthRev=-0.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -82% (up=0, down=14)