(FLO) Flowers Foods - Overview
Stock: Bread, Rolls, Bagels, Muffins, Tortillas
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.76% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.40% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.29% |
| Payout Consistency | 92.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 111.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.48% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.44 |
| Alpha | -41.46 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.267 |
| Beta Downside | 0.023 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 59.90% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.34 |
Description: FLO Flowers Foods January 11, 2026
Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE:FLO) is a U.S.-based producer and marketer of packaged bakery items, ranging from fresh breads, buns, rolls, bagels, English muffins, and tortillas to frozen bakery products under well-known brands such as Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley’s, and Tastykake.
The company operates a hybrid distribution model that combines direct-store-delivery (DSD) for fresh-baked goods with warehouse-based shipments for frozen items, serving a diversified customer set that includes national and regional restaurants, institutional foodservice, retail in-store bakeries, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, and government-run outlets such as military commissaries and prisons.
Key operational indicators show that FLO’s same-store sales have historically grown at a 3-5% annual rate, driven by strong pricing power in a consumer-essential category and a modest exposure to commodity cost inflation (wheat, sugar, and oil). The bakery sector’s defensive nature and the company’s low-capex, high-margin DSD footprint provide a buffer against economic slowdowns, while recent capital-expenditure programs aim to increase automation and expand capacity in high-growth regions.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of FLO’s financial metrics and peer comparisons.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 194.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.01% < 20% (prev 2.71%; Δ -6.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 451.1m > Net Income 194.0m |
| Net Debt (2.11b) to EBITDA (489.4m): 4.31 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.79 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (211.4m) vs 12m ago -0.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.94% > 18% (prev 0.49%; Δ 4845 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 132.0% > 50% (prev 149.3%; Δ -17.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.98 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 489.4m / Interest Expense TTM 64.9m) |
Altman Z'' 1.33
| A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 751.8m - Total Current Liabilities 957.6m) / Total Assets 4.35b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 971.4m / Total Assets 4.35b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 323.7m / Avg Total Assets 3.89b) |
| D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 974.7m / Total Liabilities 2.93b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.33 = BB |
Beneish M -2.94
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 396.0m/399.1m, Revenue 5.13b/5.12b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 48.94% / 49.30%) |
| AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.43) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 5.13b / 5.12b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 194.0m - CFO 451.1m) / TA 4.35b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of FLO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.64%, over one month by +10.84%, over three months by +5.06% and over the past year by -33.81%.
Is FLO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the FLO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 13.2 | 10.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 13.2 | 10.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 11.2 | -6.2% |
FLO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.4627
P/B = 1.6992
P/EG = 14.76
Revenue TTM = 5.13b USD
EBIT TTM = 323.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 489.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.38b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 482.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.13b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.11b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.48b USD (2.38b + Debt 2.13b - CCE 16.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.98 (Ebit TTM 323.7m / Interest Expense TTM 64.9m)
EV/FCF = 13.78x (Enterprise Value 4.48b / FCF TTM 325.3m)
FCF Yield = 7.25% (FCF TTM 325.3m / Enterprise Value 4.48b)
FCF Margin = 6.34% (FCF TTM 325.3m / Revenue TTM 5.13b)
Net Margin = 3.78% (Net Income TTM 194.0m / Revenue TTM 5.13b)
Gross Margin = 48.94% ((Revenue TTM 5.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.62b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.93% (prev 48.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 4.48b / Total Assets 4.35b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.86% (Interest Expense 18.2m / Debt 2.13b)
Taxrate = 24.19% (12.6m / 52.2m)
NOPAT = 245.4m (EBIT 323.7m * (1 - 24.19%))
Current Ratio = 0.79 (Total Current Assets 751.8m / Total Current Liabilities 957.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.50 (Debt 2.13b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.42b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.31 (Net Debt 2.11b / EBITDA 489.4m)
Debt / FCF = 6.48 (Net Debt 2.11b / FCF TTM 325.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.99% (Net Income 194.0m / Total Assets 4.35b)
RoE = 13.68% (Net Income TTM 194.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.42b)
RoCE = 11.56% (EBIT 323.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.42b + L.T.Debt 1.38b))
RoIC = 8.14% (NOPAT 245.4m / Invested Capital 3.01b)
WACC = 3.95% (E(2.38b)/V(4.50b) * Re(6.90%) + D(2.13b)/V(4.50b) * Rd(0.86%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.21%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈297.5m ; Y1≈367.0m ; Y5≈625.0m
Fair Price DCF = 76.20 (EV 18.20b - Net Debt 2.11b = Equity 16.09b / Shares 211.2m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -50.44 | EPS CAGR: -51.79% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 24.78 | Revenue CAGR: 6.07% | SUE: -0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.98 | Chg30d=-0.013 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=-5.5% | Growth Revenue=-1.0%