(FOR) Forestar - NYSE
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Real Estate - Development | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 1.454m USD | Total Return: 51.3% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 3.97M
EPS Trend: -15.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 80.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Earnings expected to drop: P/E 8.7 → Forward 49.0
Choppy
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Forestar Group Inc. (FOR) is an Arlington, Texas-based residential lot development company. The firm specializes in the acquisition of raw land and the subsequent development of infrastructure for single-family residential communities. Completed lots are sold to a diverse range of homebuilders operating at local, regional, and national scales.
The company operates as a majority-owned subsidiary of D.R. Horton, Inc., the largest homebuilder in the United States by volume. This strategic relationship provides Forestar with a consistent primary customer and shared operational efficiencies. Real estate developers like Forestar typically operate in a capital-intensive sector where profitability is closely tied to interest rate environments and housing inventory levels.
To better understand how these macro factors impact the companys intrinsic worth, you may want to review the valuation models on ValueRay.
- Strategic relationship with D.R. Horton ensures consistent lot delivery and revenue
- Rising interest rates reduce homebuilder demand for new residential lot inventory
- Availability of undeveloped land parcels impacts long-term project pipeline and margins
- Regional migration patterns to Sunbelt markets drive demand for single-family communities
- Increasing land acquisition and development costs pressure quarterly gross profit margins
| Net Income: 167.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 21.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.38% < 20% (prev -13.21%; Δ 8.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 267.0m > Net Income 167.4m |
| Net Debt (465.1m) to EBITDA (213.4m): 2.18 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.0m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.34% > 18% (prev 22.95%; Δ -1.61% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 54.97% > 50% (prev 48.35%; Δ 6.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 362.2m - Total Current Liabilities 437.1m) / Total Assets 3.17b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 1.09b / Total Assets 3.17b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 210.1m / Avg Total Assets 3.11b) |
| D: 1.35 (Book Value of Equity 1.82b / Total Liabilities 1.35b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.84 = A |
| DSRI: 0.40 (Receivables 19.6m/42.4m, Revenue 1.71b/1.47b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 22.95% / 21.34%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.88 / AQ_t-1 0.91) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.71b / 1.47b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 167.4m - CFO 267.0m) / TA 3.17b) |
| Beneish M = -3.36 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of June 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 29.31 with a total of 115,936 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.81%,
over one month by +14.22%,
over three months by +18.52% and
over the past year by +51.32%.
Forestar has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FOR.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 31.3 | 6.9% |
P/E Trailing = 8.689
P/E Forward = 49.0196
P/S = 0.8509
P/B = 0.8189
P/EG = 4.9
Revenue TTM = 1.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 210.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 213.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 793.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.90m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 827.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 16.9m
Net Debt = 465.1m USD (calculated: Debt 827.3m - CCE 362.2m)
Enterprise Value = 1.92b USD (1.45b + Debt 827.3m - CCE 362.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 210.1m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 7.24x (Enterprise Value 1.92b / FCF TTM 265.2m)
FCF Yield = 13.82% (FCF TTM 265.2m / Enterprise Value 1.92b)
FCF Margin = 15.52% (FCF TTM 265.2m / Revenue TTM 1.71b)
Net Margin = 9.80% (Net Income TTM 167.4m / Revenue TTM 1.71b)
Gross Margin = 21.34% ((Revenue TTM 1.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.43% (prev 20.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.60 (Enterprise Value 1.92b / Total Assets 3.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 827.3m)
Taxrate = 24.35% (53.9m / 221.4m)
NOPAT = 159.0m (EBIT 210.1m * (1 - 24.35%))
Current Ratio = 0.83 (Total Current Assets 362.2m / Total Current Liabilities 437.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 827.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.18 (Net Debt 465.1m / EBITDA 213.4m)
Debt / FCF = 1.75 (Net Debt 465.1m / FCF TTM 265.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.39% (Net Income 167.4m / Total Assets 3.17b)
RoE = 9.49% (Net Income TTM 167.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.76b)
RoCE = 8.22% (EBIT 210.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.76b + L.T.Debt 793.5m))
RoIC = 5.98% (NOPAT 159.0m / Invested Capital 2.66b)
WACC = 5.81% (E(1.45b)/V(2.28b) * Re(9.12%) + D(827.3m)/V(2.28b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 17.64 | Cagr: 0.47%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈265.2m ; Y1≈266.3m ; Y5≈282.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 76.90 (EV 4.39b - Net Debt 465.1m = Equity 3.92b / Shares 51.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -15.40 | EPS CAGR: -1.66% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 80.13 | Revenue CAGR: 7.46% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.82 | Chg30d=+2.02% | Revisions=+14% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=2.97 | Chg30d=+0.79% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-10.1% | GrowthRev=+0.1%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=3.20 | Chg30d=-2.33% | Revisions=-43% | GrowthEPS=+7.6% | GrowthRev=+4.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -43%