(GCO) Genesco - Overview
Stock: Footwear, Apparel, Accessories, Retail, Wholesale
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 68.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.19 |
| Alpha | -57.97 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.882 |
| Beta Downside | 2.153 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 65.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.25 |
Description: GCO Genesco December 31, 2025
Genesco Inc. (NYSE:GCO) is a diversified footwear, apparel, and accessories retailer and wholesaler that operates through four distinct segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands Group.
The Journeys Group targets Gen Z and Millennials with the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy stores plus a growing e-commerce presence; Schuh Group runs the European-focused Schuh chain offering casual and athletic shoes; Johnston & Murphy serves primarily men via brick-and-mortar and online channels; and Genesco Brands licenses and wholesales name-brand footwear such as Levi’s, Dockers, and G.H. Bass.
Key operating metrics from FY 2023 show comparable store sales up 4.2% year-over-year, e-commerce contributing roughly 28% of total revenue, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.1% after a 2022-23 restructuring that reduced SG&A expenses by 12%. The balance sheet carries $560 million of long-term debt, yielding a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.3×, which is modest for the apparel retail sector.
Sector-wide, Genesco’s performance is tied to discretionary consumer spending trends, especially among younger shoppers who are sensitive to macro-economic pressures such as inflation and employment rates. A recent GICS-defined apparel-retail base-rate suggests a 5-year average revenue growth of 3.8%, implying that Genesco must out-perform this benchmark to generate excess returns.
For a data-driven deep-dive into Genesco’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find the free tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 39.0k TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.63% < 20% (prev 10.25%; Δ 0.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 89.4m > Net Income 39.0k |
| Net Debt (586.6m) to EBITDA (26.4m): 22.26 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (10.4m) vs 12m ago -3.38% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 46.57% > 18% (prev 0.47%; Δ 4610 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 163.9% > 50% (prev 161.5%; Δ 2.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 26.4m / Interest Expense TTM 4.48m) |
Altman Z'' 1.84
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 689.1m - Total Current Liabilities 436.0m) / Total Assets 1.47b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 218.3m / Total Assets 1.47b) |
| C: 0.00 (EBIT TTM 4.88m / Avg Total Assets 1.45b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 190.1m / Total Liabilities 958.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.84 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.90
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 55.8m/52.4m, Revenue 2.38b/2.32b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 46.57% / 46.99%) |
| AQI: -0.47 (AQ_t -0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 2.38b / 2.32b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 39.0k - CFO 89.4m) / TA 1.47b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.90 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of GCO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.69%, over one month by +16.98%, over three months by -2.43% and over the past year by -26.74%.
Is GCO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GCO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 38 | 31.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 38 | 31.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 25.5 | -11.8% |
GCO Fundamental Data Overview January 28, 2026
P/S = 0.1485
P/B = 0.7139
P/EG = 0.69
Revenue TTM = 2.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.88m USD
EBITDA TTM = 26.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 69.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 139.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 613.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 586.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 940.3m USD (353.7m + Debt 613.7m - CCE 27.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.09 (Ebit TTM 4.88m / Interest Expense TTM 4.48m)
EV/FCF = 40.05x (Enterprise Value 940.3m / FCF TTM 23.5m)
FCF Yield = 2.50% (FCF TTM 23.5m / Enterprise Value 940.3m)
FCF Margin = 0.99% (FCF TTM 23.5m / Revenue TTM 2.38b)
Net Margin = 0.00% (Net Income TTM 39.0k / Revenue TTM 2.38b)
Gross Margin = 46.57% ((Revenue TTM 2.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.27b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.84% (prev 45.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.64 (Enterprise Value 940.3m / Total Assets 1.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.14% (Interest Expense 884.0k / Debt 613.7m)
Taxrate = 28.12% (2.12m / 7.54m)
NOPAT = 3.51m (EBIT 4.88m * (1 - 28.12%))
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 689.1m / Total Current Liabilities 436.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.19 (Debt 613.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 513.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 22.26 (Net Debt 586.6m / EBITDA 26.4m)
Debt / FCF = 24.99 (Net Debt 586.6m / FCF TTM 23.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 522.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.00% (Net Income 39.0k / Total Assets 1.47b)
RoE = 0.01% (Net Income TTM 39.0k / Total Stockholder Equity 522.3m)
RoCE = 0.82% (EBIT 4.88m / Capital Employed (Equity 522.3m + L.T.Debt 69.8m))
RoIC = 0.59% (NOPAT 3.51m / Invested Capital 591.9m)
WACC = 4.76% (E(353.7m)/V(967.3m) * Re(12.85%) + D(613.7m)/V(967.3m) * Rd(0.14%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 12.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.76%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈34.6m ; Y1≈22.7m ; Y5≈10.4m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 330.1m - Net Debt 586.6m = -256.5m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -22.16 | EPS CAGR: -4.75% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -10.37 | Revenue CAGR: -4.34% | SUE: -0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=-1.81 | Chg30d=+0.087 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=2.14 | Chg30d=+0.256 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+61.4% | Growth Revenue=+2.4%