(GENI) Genius Sports - Ratings and Ratios
Data, Streaming, Odds, Integrity
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 72.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.74% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.66 |
| Alpha | 8.63 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.474 |
| Beta | 1.115 |
| Beta Downside | 1.440 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.08% |
| Mean DD | 15.95% |
| Median DD | 13.37% |
Description: GENI Genius Sports November 09, 2025
Genius Sports Ltd (NYSE:GENI) provides technology-driven products and services across the sports ecosystem, covering data collection, live-data integration, and distribution for leagues, betting operators, and media partners. Its core offerings include a data-infrastructure platform that aggregates real-time match events, a streaming stack that automates production and distribution of game footage, and an integrity suite that uses algorithmic monitoring to flag suspicious betting activity and delivers consulting and education services to leagues.
Key performance indicators that analysts typically watch include: (1) **Revenue growth**, which accelerated to ~28% YoY in FY 2023 driven by expanding data-licensing contracts with major leagues (e.g., NFL, NBA) and new betting-partner agreements; (2) **Annual recurring revenue (ARR)** from its SaaS-based data and integrity platforms, now exceeding $150 million, indicating a shift toward higher-margin subscription income; and (3) **EBITDA margin**, which has hovered around 12% after recent cost-optimization initiatives. The sector’s upside is underpinned by two macro drivers: the continued liberalization of sports-betting markets worldwide (projected to add $30 bn in global betting handle by 2027) and the rising demand for live-data and streaming content as broadcasters and OTT platforms monetize real-time sports experiences. A material uncertainty is the company’s exposure to regulatory changes that could restrict data-sharing agreements or impose stricter integrity-monitoring standards.
If you’re looking to deepen your quantitative assessment of GENI’s valuation dynamics, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst-level financial models can provide useful scenario analyses and peer-group benchmarks.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (-119.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 36.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.90pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 32.61% (prev 16.28%; Δ 16.33pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 84.1m > Net Income -119.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 1.73 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (257.7m) change vs 12m ago 10.24% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 21.92% (prev 19.84%; Δ 2.08pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 68.15% (prev 63.81%; Δ 4.35pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -628.8 (EBITDA TTM -70.9m / Interest Expense TTM 218.0k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -7.41
| (A) 0.19 = (Total Current Assets 466.4m - Total Current Liabilities 269.3m) / Total Assets 1.05b |
| (B) -1.12 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.18b / Total Assets 1.05b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.12 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.15 = EBIT TTM -137.1m / Avg Total Assets 887.0m |
| (D) -3.76 = Book Value of Equity -1.23b / Total Liabilities 326.6m |
| Total Rating: -7.41 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 45.74
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.92% |
| 3. FCF Margin 3.72% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.04 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -28.47)% |
| 7. RoE -17.49% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 84.25% |
| 9. EPS Trend 29.96% |
What is the price of GENI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.32%, over one month by +7.83%, over three months by -10.99% and over the past year by +27.40%.
Is GENI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 11
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GENI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15.5 | 40.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15.5 | 40.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 11.8 | 7.2% |
GENI Fundamental Data Overview December 31, 2025
P/E Forward = 105.2632
P/S = 4.3201
P/B = 3.5947
Beta = 1.941
Revenue TTM = 604.5m USD
EBIT TTM = -137.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -70.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 30.2m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.08m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 30.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -177.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.43b USD (2.61b + Debt 30.2m - CCE 207.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -628.8 (Ebit TTM -137.1m / Interest Expense TTM 218.0k)
FCF Yield = 0.92% (FCF TTM 22.5m / Enterprise Value 2.43b)
FCF Margin = 3.72% (FCF TTM 22.5m / Revenue TTM 604.5m)
Net Margin = -19.71% (Net Income TTM -119.2m / Revenue TTM 604.5m)
Gross Margin = 21.92% ((Revenue TTM 604.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 472.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.65% (prev 7.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.32 (Enterprise Value 2.43b / Total Assets 1.05b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.46% (Interest Expense 138.0k / Debt 30.2m)
Taxrate = 8.25% (-2.59m / -31.4m)
NOPAT = -125.8m (EBIT -137.1m * (1 - 8.25%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 466.4m / Total Current Liabilities 269.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.04 (Debt 30.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 722.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.50 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -177.6m / EBITDA -70.9m)
Debt / FCF = -7.91 (Net Debt -177.6m / FCF TTM 22.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 681.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -11.36% (Net Income -119.2m / Total Assets 1.05b)
RoE = -17.49% (Net Income TTM -119.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 681.5m)
RoCE = -19.26% (EBIT -137.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 681.5m + L.T.Debt 30.2m))
RoIC = -18.45% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -125.8m / Invested Capital 681.5m)
WACC = 10.02% (E(2.61b)/V(2.64b) * Re(10.13%) + D(30.2m)/V(2.64b) * Rd(0.46%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 10.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 6.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 61.66% ; FCFE base≈22.5m ; Y1≈14.7m ; Y5≈6.74m
Fair Price DCF = 0.41 (DCF Value 97.5m / Shares Outstanding 238.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 29.96 | EPS CAGR: 11.24% | SUE: -0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 84.25 | Revenue CAGR: 19.97% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.03 | Chg30d=+0.012 | Revisions Net=+6 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+36.7% | Growth Revenue=+19.1%
Additional Sources for GENI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle