GEO Stock Analysis: Geo | NYSE
Security & Protection Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.629m USD | 12M Return: 65.2% | US36162J1060 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 71.3M
EPS Trend: 8.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 83.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider specializing in the design, financing, development, and operation of secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers. The company operates across the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom through four business segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. Its offerings include secure custody, electronic monitoring for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants, treatment and educational programs, pre-release and halfway house services, and support functions such as food services, health and mental health care, and facility maintenance. GEO Group was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
The company operates within the privatized corrections and government services industry, generating revenue primarily through long-term contracts with federal, state, and local government agencies. GEOs business model is closely tied to public spending on incarceration, immigration enforcement processing, and offender rehabilitation programs, making government policy and contract awards key drivers of its financial performance. Listed on the NYSE since 1994, the company is classified within the Industrials sector under the Security & Alarm Services sub-industry.
- Federal immigration enforcement contracts boost U.S. Secure Services revenue
- Electronic Monitoring segment margins expand on BI Incorporated scale
- Activist investor pressure forces dividend cut and balance sheet restructuring
| Net Income: 291.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.73 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.88% < 20% (prev -2.32%; Δ 11.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 355.2m > Net Income 291.5m |
| Net Debt (1.61b) to EBITDA (648.1m): 2.49 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.65 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (132.0m) vs 12m ago -6.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.38% > 18% (prev 24.50%; Δ 5.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 76.38% > 50% (prev 66.96%; Δ 9.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 512.9m / Interest Expense TTM 153.0m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 635.0m - Total Current Liabilities 384.0m) / Total Assets 3.74b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 380.1m / Total Assets 3.74b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 512.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.70b) |
| D: 0.68 (Book Value of Equity 1.52b / Total Liabilities 2.23b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.42 = A |
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 531.9m/389.7m, Revenue 2.83b/2.45b) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 24.50% / 30.38%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.34) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 2.83b / 2.45b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 291.5m - CFO 355.2m) / TA 3.74b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 27.57 with a total of 1,220,505 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.25%, over one month by -8.77%, over three months by -10.31% and over the past year by +65.19%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.00 (which is 5.7% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Geo has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GEO.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 39 | 41.5% |
P/E Trailing = 12.9437
P/E Forward = 16.0
P/S = 1.2835
P/B = 2.3747
P/EG = 1.1429
Revenue TTM = 2.83b USD
EBIT TTM = 512.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 648.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.51b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 45.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.67b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 64.8m
Net Debt = 1.61b USD (calculated: Debt 1.67b - CCE 57.1m)
Enterprise Value = 5.24b USD (3.63b + Debt 1.67b - CCE 57.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.35 (Ebit TTM 512.9m / Interest Expense TTM 153.0m)
EV/FCF = 32.53x (Enterprise Value 5.24b / FCF TTM 161.2m)
FCF Yield = 3.07% (FCF TTM 161.2m / Enterprise Value 5.24b)
FCF Margin = 5.70% (FCF TTM 161.2m / Revenue TTM 2.83b)
Net Margin = 10.31% (Net Income TTM 291.5m / Revenue TTM 2.83b)
Gross Margin = 30.38% ((Revenue TTM 2.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.97b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 16.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.40 (Enterprise Value 5.24b / Total Assets 3.74b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.15% (Interest Expense 153.0m / Debt 1.67b)
Taxrate = 26.78% (106.6m / 398.1m)
NOPAT = 375.5m (EBIT 512.9m * (1 - 26.78%))
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 635.0m / Total Current Liabilities 384.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.10 (Debt 1.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.52b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.49 (Net Debt 1.61b / EBITDA 648.1m)
Debt / FCF = 10.02 (Net Debt 1.61b / FCF TTM 161.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.51b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.88% (Net Income 291.5m / Total Assets 3.74b)
RoE = 19.30% (Net Income TTM 291.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.51b)
RoCE = 16.97% (EBIT 512.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.51b + L.T.Debt 1.51b))
RoIC = 11.22% (NOPAT 375.5m / Invested Capital 3.35b)
WACC = 6.72% (E(3.63b)/V(5.30b) * Re(6.73%) + D(1.67b)/V(5.30b) * Rd(9.15%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 6.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 13.95 | Cagr: 0.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈149.1m ; Y1≈170.9m ; Y5≈251.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.49 (EV 3.79b - Net Debt 1.61b = Equity 2.17b / Shares 131.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 8.22 | EPS CAGR: 1.40% | SUE: 1.47 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 83.81 | Revenue CAGR: 5.26% | SUE: 0.63 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.31 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+52.0% | GrowthRev=+13.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.72 | Chg30d=+0.44% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+31.4% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +75% (up=9, down=0)