(GEO) Geo - Overview

Sector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Protection Services | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.245m USD | Total Return: -42.1% in 12m

Stock Prisons, Detention Centers, Reentry Services, Monitoring
Total Rating 34
Risk 69
Buy Signal -0.26
Security & Protection Services +5.9
Security & Alarm Services +16.4
Market Cap: 2,245m
Avg Trading Vol: 38.8M USD
ATR: 4.73%
Peers RS (IBD): 26.0
Risk 5d forecast
Volatility50.4%
Rel. Tail Risk-10.9%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Alpha-56.35
Character TTM
Beta0.669
Beta Downside1.233
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD62.49%
CAGR/Max DD0.47
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of GEO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.28, "2021-06": 0.42, "2021-09": 0.36, "2021-12": 0.38, "2022-03": 0.26, "2022-06": 0.37, "2022-09": 0.26, "2022-12": 0.28, "2023-03": 0.19, "2023-06": 0.2, "2023-09": 0.19, "2023-12": 0.29, "2024-03": 0.18, "2024-06": 0.23, "2024-09": 0.21, "2024-12": 0.13, "2025-03": 0.14, "2025-06": 0.22, "2025-09": 0.25, "2025-12": 0.25, "2026-03": 0,
EPS CAGR: -53.88%
EPS Trend: -56.9%
Last SUE: -3.42
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of GEO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 576.377, 2021-06: 565.419, 2021-09: 557.277, 2021-12: 557.539, 2022-03: 551.185, 2022-06: 588.177, 2022-09: 616.683, 2022-12: 620.682, 2023-03: 608.209, 2023-06: 593.891, 2023-09: 602.785, 2023-12: 608.282, 2024-03: 605.672, 2024-06: 607.185, 2024-09: 603.125, 2024-12: 607.72, 2025-03: 604.647, 2025-06: 636.169, 2025-09: 682.341, 2025-12: 707.695, 2026-03: null,
Rev. CAGR: 6.89%
Rev. Trend: 72.2%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 3
Risks
Technicals: volatile
Description: GEO Geo

The GEO Group, Inc. is a government service provider. It specializes in secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers. These services operate in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.

GEOs services include rehabilitation, post-release support, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community programs, and correctional healthcare. The companys business model involves owning and/or operating facilities under contracts with government entities. This sector often involves long-term contracts, providing revenue stability but also regulatory scrutiny.

GEOs global operations encompass 95 facilities with approximately 75,000 beds. It employs around 20,000 individuals. To learn more about GEOs financial performance and industry standing, consider exploring ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Government contract awards drive revenue growth
  • Policy shifts impact demand for secure facilities
  • Interest rate changes affect financing costs
  • Immigration policies influence detention center utilization
  • Labor costs and staffing levels impact profitability
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 254.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.75 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 13.75% < 20% (prev 6.60%; Δ 7.15% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 72.6m > Net Income 254.4m
Net Debt (1.66b) to EBITDA (590.3m): 2.81 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.01 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (137.4m) vs 12m ago -1.55% < -2%
Gross Margin: 23.96% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2.37k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 70.38% > 50% (prev 66.73%; Δ 3.65% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.86 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 590.3m / Interest Expense TTM 160.5m)
Altman Z'' 2.50
A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 718.5m - Total Current Liabilities 356.9m) / Total Assets 3.84b
B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 294.3m / Total Assets 3.84b)
C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 459.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.74b)
D: 0.77 (Book Value of Equity 1.80b / Total Liabilities 2.34b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 2.50 = A
Beneish M -2.45
DSRI: 1.45 (Receivables 593.5m/376.0m, Revenue 2.63b/2.42b)
GMI: 1.12 (GM 23.96% / 26.79%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.31)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 2.63b / 2.42b)
TATA: 0.05 (NI 254.4m - CFO 72.6m) / TA 3.84b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.45 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB
What is the price of GEO shares? As of April 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.81 with a total of 2,116,327 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.97%, over one month by +13.34%, over three months by +8.79% and over the past year by -42.10%.
Is GEO a buy, sell or hold? Geo has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GEO.
  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GEO price?
Wallstreet Target Price 29.5 75.5%
Analysts Target Price 29.5 75.5%
GEO Fundamental Data Overview as of 02 April 2026
P/E Trailing = 9.1813
P/E Forward = 15.7978
P/S = 0.8532
P/B = 1.466
P/EG = 1.0154
Revenue TTM = 2.63b USD
EBIT TTM = 459.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 590.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.65b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.73b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.66b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.90b USD (2.25b + Debt 1.73b - CCE 69.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.86 (Ebit TTM 459.3m / Interest Expense TTM 160.5m)
EV/FCF = -31.24x (Enterprise Value 3.90b / FCF TTM -124.9m)
FCF Yield = -3.20% (FCF TTM -124.9m / Enterprise Value 3.90b)
FCF Margin = -4.75% (FCF TTM -124.9m / Revenue TTM 2.63b)
Net Margin = 9.67% (Net Income TTM 254.4m / Revenue TTM 2.63b)
Gross Margin = 23.96% ((Revenue TTM 2.63b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.12% (prev 25.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 3.90b / Total Assets 3.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.20% (Interest Expense 37.9m / Debt 1.73b)
Taxrate = 34.79% (16.9m / 48.7m)
NOPAT = 299.5m (EBIT 459.3m * (1 - 34.79%))
Current Ratio = 2.01 (Total Current Assets 718.5m / Total Current Liabilities 356.9m)
Debt / Equity = 1.15 (Debt 1.73b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.50b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.81 (Net Debt 1.66b / EBITDA 590.3m)
 Debt / FCF = -13.26 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.66b / FCF TTM -124.9m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 1.44b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.81% (Net Income 254.4m / Total Assets 3.84b)
RoE = 17.69% (Net Income TTM 254.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.44b)
RoCE = 14.88% (EBIT 459.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.44b + L.T.Debt 1.65b))
RoIC = 9.71% (NOPAT 299.5m / Invested Capital 3.08b)
WACC = 5.33% (E(2.25b)/V(3.97b) * Re(8.33%) + D(1.73b)/V(3.97b) * Rd(2.20%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 8.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 4.74%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -124.9m)
 EPS Correlation: -56.86 | EPS CAGR: -53.88% | SUE: -3.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 72.19 | Revenue CAGR: 6.89% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg7d=+0.008 | Chg30d=-0.028 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.20 | Chg7d=+0.022 | Chg30d=-0.132 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+39.0% | Growth Revenue=+12.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.78 | Chg7d=-0.175 | Chg30d=+0.270 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+48.9% | Growth Revenue=+9.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -1.00 (0 Up / 3 Down within 30d for Next Quarter)
[Growth] Implied Growth Rate = -2.6% (Discount Rate 8.3% - Earnings Yield 10.9%)
[Growth] Growth Spread = +16.9% (Analyst 14.3% - Implied -2.6%)
External Resources
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