Overview Dividends

(GEO) Geo - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US36162J1060

Prisons, Detention, Electronic Monitoring, Reentry

GEO EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -7.88%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -41.3%

GEO Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 1.14%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 14.1%

Description: GEO Geo

The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading provider of correctional, detention, and reentry services, operating a diverse portfolio of secure facilities, processing centers, and community-based reentry facilities across multiple geographies, including the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, and South Africa.

With a strong presence in the security and alarm services industry, GEO operates through four distinct business segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The companys comprehensive service offerings include security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services, as well as reentry programs, electronic monitoring, and secure transportation services.

To evaluate the companys performance, key performance indicators (KPIs) such as revenue growth, occupancy rates, and average daily population (ADP) are crucial. Additionally, metrics like EBITDA margin, debt-to-equity ratio, and return on invested capital (ROIC) provide insights into GEOs financial health and operational efficiency. Notably, the companys high P/E ratio of 115.68 suggests significant growth expectations, while the forward P/E of 22.83 indicates potential for earnings growth.

From a financial perspective, GEOs market capitalization stands at approximately $3.6 billion, with a relatively low return on equity (RoE) of 2.19%. To improve profitability, the company may focus on optimizing its business mix, enhancing operational efficiency, and investing in growth initiatives, such as expanding its electronic monitoring and reentry services. By analyzing these KPIs and fundamental data, investors can gain a deeper understanding of GEOs strengths, weaknesses, and growth prospects.

GEO Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	2,960m
Sub-Industry	Security & Alarm Services
IPO / Inception	1994-07-26

GEO Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	53.7%
Fundamental	47.4%
Dividend Rating	1.0%
Return 12m vs S&P 500	40.9%
Analyst Rating	5.0 of 5

GEO Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

GEO Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	-70.4%
Growth Correlation 12m	26.6%
Growth Correlation 5y	70.7%
CAGR 5y	15.77%
CAGR/Max DD 5y	0.29
Sharpe Ratio 12m	-0.69
Alpha	34.85
Beta	2.084
Volatility	63.11%
Current Volume	2150.1k
Average Volume 20d	2665.8k
Stop Loss	20.5 (-6.2%)
Signal	0.59

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (90.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 147.1m TTM)

FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.07pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -2.32% (prev 4.19%; Δ -6.51pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 238.1m > Net Income 90.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (1.72b) to EBITDA (421.1m) ratio: 4.08 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.90 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (140.5m) change vs 12m ago 7.63% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 45.22% (prev 24.87%; Δ 20.35pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 67.12% (prev 66.52%; Δ 0.60pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 1.69 (EBITDA TTM 421.1m / Interest Expense TTM 173.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 0.55

(A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 504.1m - Total Current Liabilities 561.0m) / Total Assets 3.66b

(B) 0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 88.5m / Total Assets 3.66b

(D) 0.03 = Book Value of Equity 73.7m / Total Liabilities 2.28b

Total Rating: 0.55 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 47.35

1. Piotroski 3.50pt = -1.50

2. FCF Yield 2.84% = 1.42

3. FCF Margin 5.34% = 1.34

4. Debt/Equity 1.24 = 1.78

5. Debt/Ebitda 4.08 = -2.50

6. ROIC - WACC -2.06% = -2.57

7. RoE 6.73% = 0.56

8. Rev. Trend 14.15% = 0.71

9. Rev. CAGR 1.14% = 0.14

10. EPS Trend -41.31% = -1.03

11. EPS CAGR -7.88% = -0.99

What is the price of GEO shares?

As of August 21, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 21.86 with a total of 2,150,100 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.91%, over one month by -9.33%, over three months by -19.48% and over the past year by +62.89%.

Is Geo a good stock to buy?

No, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Geo (NYSE:GEO) is currently (August 2025) a stock to sell. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 47.35 and therefor a negative outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of GEO is around 20.16 USD . This means that GEO is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -7.78%.

Is GEO a buy, sell or hold?

Geo has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GEO.

Strong Buy: 4
Buy: 0
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the GEO price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	39	78.4%
Analysts Target Price	41.8	91.2%
ValueRay Target Price	22.7	3.7%

Last update: 2025-08-20 02:49

GEO Fundamental Data Overview

Market Cap USD = 2.96b (2.96b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 67.9m USD (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Trailing = 32.1692
P/E Forward = 18.7617
P/S = 1.2068
P/B = 2.1501
P/EG = 1.8759
Beta = 0.766
Revenue TTM = 2.45b USD
EBIT TTM = 292.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 421.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.48b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 243.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.72b USD (Calculated: Short Term 243.6m + Long Term 1.48b)
Net Debt = 1.72b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.61b USD (2.96b + Debt 1.72b - CCE 67.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.69 (Ebit TTM 292.7m / Interest Expense TTM 173.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.84% (FCF TTM 131.0m / Enterprise Value 4.61b)
FCF Margin = 5.34% (FCF TTM 131.0m / Revenue TTM 2.45b)
Net Margin = 3.69% (Net Income TTM 90.5m / Revenue TTM 2.45b)
Gross Margin = 45.22% ((Revenue TTM 2.45b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 62.55 (Enterprise Value 4.61b / Book Value Of Equity 73.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.44% (Interest Expense 41.9m / Debt 1.72b)
Taxrate = 24.36% (from yearly Income Tax Expense: 9.40m / 38.6m)
NOPAT = 221.4m (EBIT 292.7m * (1 - 24.36%))
Current Ratio = 0.90 (Total Current Assets 504.1m / Total Current Liabilities 561.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.24 (Debt 1.72b / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 1.38b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.08 (Net Debt 1.72b / EBITDA 421.1m)
Debt / FCF = 13.12 (Debt 1.72b / FCF TTM 131.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.34b (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = 2.47% (Net Income 90.5m, Total Assets 3.66b )
RoE = 6.73% (Net Income TTM 90.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.34b)
RoCE = 10.38% (Ebit 292.7m / (Equity 1.34b + L.T.Debt 1.48b))
RoIC = 7.28% (NOPAT 221.4m / Invested Capital 3.04b)
WACC = 9.34% (E(2.96b)/V(4.68b) * Re(13.69%)) + (D(1.72b)/V(4.68b) * Rd(2.44%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Shares Correlation 5-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.90%
Discount Rate = 13.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 56.25% ; FCFE base≈161.0m ; Y1≈134.9m ; Y5≈100.5m
Fair Price DCF = 6.40 (DCF Value 906.5m / Shares Outstanding 141.5m; 5y FCF grow -19.58% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 14.15 | Revenue CAGR: 1.14%
Revenue Growth Correlation: 72.94%
EPS Correlation: -41.31 | EPS CAGR: -7.88%
Growth-of-Growth: 86.77

Additional Sources for GEO Stock

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