(GEO) Geo - Overview
Stock: Correctional Facilities, Rehabilitation, Electronic Monitoring, Health Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 46.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.03 |
| Alpha | -58.61 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.909 |
| Beta Downside | 0.903 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 58.76% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.15 |
Description: GEO Geo January 11, 2026
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) operates as a diversified government-service firm that designs, finances, builds, and manages secure correctional facilities, processing centers, and community re-entry programs across the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. Its portfolio includes 95 sites-about 75,000 beds-plus a suite of ancillary services such as the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transport, electronic monitoring, and correctional health and mental-health care, supported by roughly 20,000 employees.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue was approximately $2.0 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~28%, reflecting strong cash flow from long-term government contracts. The sector’s growth is tied to two macro drivers-(1) state and federal budget allocations for incarceration and community-based supervision, which have been pressured by declining inmate populations and criminal-justice reform, and (2) the expanding use of electronic monitoring, projected to grow at a 7% CAGR through 2028. GEO’s occupancy rate sits near 85%, but the company holds a pipeline of idle facilities that could be repurposed or sold, adding a potential upside under a favorable policy environment.
For a deeper, data-driven view of GEO’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analyst dashboards on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 238.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.78 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.38% < 20% (prev 1.77%; Δ 8.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 208.4m > Net Income 238.1m |
| Net Debt (1.45b) to EBITDA (570.1m): 2.54 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (140.0m) vs 12m ago 1.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.22% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 2396 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 68.01% > 50% (prev 66.72%; Δ 1.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.66 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 570.1m / Interest Expense TTM 165.8m) |
Altman Z'' 1.59
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 685.3m - Total Current Liabilities 422.6m) / Total Assets 3.81b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 262.5m / Total Assets 3.81b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 440.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.72b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 248.3m / Total Liabilities 2.29b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.59 = BB |
Beneish M -2.78
| DSRI: 1.18 (Receivables 452.9m/367.5m, Revenue 2.53b/2.42b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 24.22% / 26.12%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 2.53b / 2.42b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 238.1m - CFO 208.4m) / TA 3.81b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.78 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of GEO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.50%, over one month by -1.36%, over three months by +3.18% and over the past year by -42.22%.
Is GEO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GEO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 32.3 | 102.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 32.3 | 102.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 15.7 | -1.4% |
GEO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 10.1523
P/S = 0.8934
P/B = 1.4948
P/EG = 1.0154
Revenue TTM = 2.53b USD
EBIT TTM = 440.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 570.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 19.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.63b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.45b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.71b USD (2.26b + Debt 1.63b - CCE 183.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.66 (Ebit TTM 440.4m / Interest Expense TTM 165.8m)
EV/FCF = 140.8x (Enterprise Value 3.71b / FCF TTM 26.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.71% (FCF TTM 26.3m / Enterprise Value 3.71b)
FCF Margin = 1.04% (FCF TTM 26.3m / Revenue TTM 2.53b)
Net Margin = 9.41% (Net Income TTM 238.1m / Revenue TTM 2.53b)
Gross Margin = 24.22% ((Revenue TTM 2.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.92b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.42% (prev 20.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 3.71b / Total Assets 3.81b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.35% (Interest Expense 38.2m / Debt 1.63b)
Taxrate = 24.48% (56.4m / 230.3m)
NOPAT = 332.5m (EBIT 440.4m * (1 - 24.48%))
Current Ratio = 1.62 (Total Current Assets 685.3m / Total Current Liabilities 422.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.07 (Debt 1.63b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.52b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.54 (Net Debt 1.45b / EBITDA 570.1m)
Debt / FCF = 54.91 (Net Debt 1.45b / FCF TTM 26.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.40b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.40% (Net Income 238.1m / Total Assets 3.81b)
RoE = 17.06% (Net Income TTM 238.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.40b)
RoCE = 14.94% (EBIT 440.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.40b + L.T.Debt 1.55b))
RoIC = 10.88% (NOPAT 332.5m / Invested Capital 3.06b)
WACC = 6.13% (E(2.26b)/V(3.89b) * Re(9.27%) + D(1.63b)/V(3.89b) * Rd(2.35%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.73%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.30% ; FCFF base≈95.3m ; Y1≈79.8m ; Y5≈59.3m
Fair Price DCF = 1.72 (EV 1.69b - Net Debt 1.45b = Equity 239.8m / Shares 139.2m; r=6.13% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -19.58% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -65.03 | EPS CAGR: -49.93% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.83 | Revenue CAGR: 5.53% | SUE: 1.90 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+55.6% | Growth Revenue=+15.7%