(GEO) Geo - Overview
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Security & Protection Services | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 3.104m USD | Total Return: -13.2% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 34.0M
EPS Trend: -23.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 75.0%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a specialized government service provider focused on the design, financing, and management of secure facilities and processing centers. Operating across the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom, the company manages a portfolio of 95 facilities with a total capacity of approximately 75,000 beds. Beyond physical infrastructure, GEO provides integrated services including electronic monitoring, secure transportation, and correctional healthcare.
The company operates within the private prison and security services sector, where revenue is largely driven by long-term government contracts at federal, state, and local levels. This business model relies on high barriers to entry due to the capital-intensive nature of facility development and the complex regulatory requirements governing inmate rehabilitation and community reentry programs.
A deeper look at ValueRay can help clarify how these government contract cycles impact long-term valuation.
Incorporated in 1984 and headquartered in Florida, GEO employs approximately 20,000 people to execute its Continuum of Care model. This framework integrates in-custody rehabilitation with post-release support, positioning the firm as a diversified provider of both physical security and behavioral health services within the justice system.
- Federal immigration policy shifts directly impact detention center occupancy and revenue
- Electronic monitoring segment growth offsets traditional facility capacity reductions
- High interest rates increase debt service costs for capital intensive operations
- Government contract renewals and pricing adjustments drive long term margin stability
- Regulatory changes regarding private prison utilization influence institutional investor sentiment
| Net Income: 273.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.52% < 20% (prev 4.73%; Δ 7.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 157.9m > Net Income 273.1m |
| Net Debt (1.65b) to EBITDA (620.6m): 2.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (134.1m) vs 12m ago -4.87% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.80% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 2.15k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.38% > 50% (prev 66.70%; Δ 6.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.12 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 620.6m / Interest Expense TTM 156.4m) |
| A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 698.9m - Total Current Liabilities 356.9m) / Total Assets 3.81b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 332.6m / Total Assets 3.81b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 488.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.72b) |
| D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 314.3m / Total Liabilities 2.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.90 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.32 (Receivables 573.4m/384.2m, Revenue 2.73b/2.42b) |
| GMI: 1.20 (GM 21.80% / 26.26%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 2.73b / 2.42b) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 273.1m - CFO 157.9m) / TA 3.81b) |
| Beneish M = -2.46 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of May 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.11 with a total of 1,464,018 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.62%,
over one month by +24.38%,
over three months by +76.71% and
over the past year by -13.15%.
Geo has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GEO.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 29.5 | 27.7% |
P/E Forward = 21.9298
P/S = 1.1361
P/B = 2.0356
P/EG = 0.7368
Revenue TTM = 2.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 488.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 620.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.59b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.73b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 69.6m
Net Debt = 1.65b USD (calculated: Debt 1.73b - CCE 80.2m)
Enterprise Value = 4.75b USD (3.10b + Debt 1.73b - CCE 80.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.12 (Ebit TTM 488.0m / Interest Expense TTM 156.4m)
EV/FCF = -155.3x (Enterprise Value 4.75b / FCF TTM -30.6m)
FCF Yield = -0.64% (FCF TTM -30.6m / Enterprise Value 4.75b)
FCF Margin = -1.12% (FCF TTM -30.6m / Revenue TTM 2.73b)
Net Margin = 10.00% (Net Income TTM 273.1m / Revenue TTM 2.73b)
Gross Margin = 21.80% ((Revenue TTM 2.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.14b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.46% (prev 25.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.25 (Enterprise Value 4.75b / Total Assets 3.81b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.04% (Interest Expense 156.4m / Debt 1.73b)
Taxrate = 28.17% (15.0m / 53.3m)
NOPAT = 350.5m (EBIT 488.0m * (1 - 28.17%))
Current Ratio = 1.96 (Total Current Assets 698.9m / Total Current Liabilities 356.9m)
Debt / Equity = 1.16 (Debt 1.73b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.50b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.66 (Net Debt 1.65b / EBITDA 620.6m)
Debt / FCF = -53.89 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.65b / FCF TTM -30.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.48b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.34% (Net Income 273.1m / Total Assets 3.81b)
RoE = 18.50% (Net Income TTM 273.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.48b)
RoCE = 15.92% (EBIT 488.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.48b + L.T.Debt 1.59b))
RoIC = 9.28% (NOPAT 350.5m / Invested Capital 3.78b)
WACC = 8.23% (E(3.10b)/V(4.83b) * Re(9.20%) + D(1.73b)/V(4.83b) * Rd(9.04%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 9.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.08%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -30.6m)
EPS Correlation: -23.17 | EPS CAGR: -2.93% | SUE: 1.87 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 75.04 | Revenue CAGR: 3.40% | SUE: 1.00 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=+4.55% | Revisions=+14% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-10.29% | Revisions=-33% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=+2.09% | Revisions=+14% | GrowthEPS=+41.9% | GrowthRev=+13.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.66 | Chg30d=-6.56% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+36.3% | GrowthRev=+8.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -33%