GEO Stock Analysis: Geo | NYSE
Security & Protection Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.879m USD | 12M Return: 14.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 70.8M
EPS Trend: -46.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 75.0%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a U.S.-based government service provider specializing in the design, financing, development, and operation of secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers across the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. Its service portfolio spans the GEO Continuum of Care (an integrated rehabilitation and post-release support platform), secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health services. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
GEO operates as a private-sector partner to government agencies, with revenue derived primarily from contracts with federal, state, and local authorities - including correctional departments and federal agencies such as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Its operations span roughly 95 facilities with approximately 75,000 beds and a workforce of about 20,000 employees. Within the GICS classification system, GEO is categorized under the Industrials sector and the Security & Alarm Services sub-industry, reflecting its hybrid positioning between facility management and government-outsourced services.
- ICE detention contracts surge under Trump deportation push
- Electronic monitoring segment expands margins amid technology adoption
- High leverage weighs on earnings as debt servicing costs pressure margins
| Net Income: 273.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.52% < 20% (prev 4.73%; Δ 7.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 157.9m > Net Income 273.1m |
| Net Debt (1.65b) to EBITDA (620.6m): 2.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (134.1m) vs 12m ago -4.87% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.80% > 18% (prev 26.26%; Δ -4.45% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.38% > 50% (prev 66.70%; Δ 6.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM 488.0m / Interest Expense TTM 156.4m) |
| A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 698.9m - Total Current Liabilities 356.9m) / Total Assets 3.81b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 332.6m / Total Assets 3.81b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 488.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.72b) |
| D: 0.65 (Book Value of Equity 1.50b / Total Liabilities 2.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.43 = A |
| DSRI: 1.32 (Receivables 573.4m/384.2m, Revenue 2.73b/2.42b) |
| GMI: 1.20 (GM 26.26% / 21.80%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 2.73b / 2.42b) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 273.1m - CFO 157.9m) / TA 3.81b) |
| Beneish M = -2.49 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 29.65 with a total of 2,252,303 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.34%, over one month by +11.13%, over three months by +66.67% and over the past year by +14.74%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.10 (which is 5.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Geo has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GEO.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 32 | 7.9% |
P/E Trailing = 14.736
P/E Forward = 25.7069
P/S = 1.4198
P/B = 2.6523
P/EG = 1.838
Revenue TTM = 2.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 488.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 620.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.59b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.73b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 69.6m
Net Debt = 1.65b USD (calculated: Debt 1.73b - CCE 80.2m)
Enterprise Value = 5.53b USD (3.88b + Debt 1.73b - CCE 80.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.12 (Ebit TTM 488.0m / Interest Expense TTM 156.4m)
EV/FCF = 22.72x (Enterprise Value 5.53b / FCF TTM 243.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.40% (FCF TTM 243.3m / Enterprise Value 5.53b)
FCF Margin = 8.91% (FCF TTM 243.3m / Revenue TTM 2.73b)
Net Margin = 10.00% (Net Income TTM 273.1m / Revenue TTM 2.73b)
Gross Margin = 21.80% ((Revenue TTM 2.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.14b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.46% (prev 25.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 5.53b / Total Assets 3.81b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.04% (Interest Expense 156.4m / Debt 1.73b)
Taxrate = 26.59% (98.9m / 372.0m)
NOPAT = 358.2m (EBIT 488.0m * (1 - 26.59%))
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 698.9m / Total Current Liabilities 416.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.16 (Debt 1.73b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.50b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.66 (Net Debt 1.65b / EBITDA 620.6m)
Debt / FCF = 6.78 (Net Debt 1.65b / FCF TTM 243.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.48b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.34% (Net Income 273.1m / Total Assets 3.81b)
RoE = 18.49% (Net Income TTM 273.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.48b)
RoCE = 15.92% (EBIT 488.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.48b + L.T.Debt 1.59b))
RoIC = 9.60% (NOPAT 358.2m / Invested Capital 3.73b)
WACC = 7.82% (E(3.88b)/V(5.61b) * Re(8.35%) + D(1.73b)/V(5.61b) * Rd(9.04%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈178.5m ; Y1≈204.6m ; Y5≈301.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 21.57 (EV 4.53b - Net Debt 1.65b = Equity 2.88b / Shares 133.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -46.42 | EPS CAGR: -6.94% | SUE: 1.89 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 75.04 | Revenue CAGR: 3.40% | SUE: 1.00 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+41.9% | GrowthRev=+13.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.66 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+36.3% | GrowthRev=+8.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -8% (up=4, down=5)