GFL Stock Analysis: Gfl Environmental Holdings | NYSE
Waste Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 14.984m USD | 12M Return: -19.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 108M
EPS Trend: 2.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -88.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
GFL Environmental Inc. is a North American provider of non-hazardous solid waste management services, operating in both Canada and the United States. Its service offering covers the full waste management chain, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal, serving municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007, is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida, and trades on the NYSE under the ticker GFL after its March 2020 IPO.
As an Environmental & Facilities Services company within the Industrials sector, GFL operates in an industry characterized by high capital intensity, given the need for collection fleets, transfer stations, and disposal assets such as landfills. The business model is supported by recurring revenue streams, often anchored by long-term municipal contracts and exclusive franchise rights that create barriers to entry in local markets. The sector is generally considered defensive, with demand for waste collection and disposal services remaining relatively stable across economic cycles.
- Acquisition pipeline drives North American solid waste segment growth
- Landfill pricing power and volumes expand core operating margins
- Leveraged balance sheet sensitivity shapes capital allocation amid rate cuts
| Net Income: 208.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.71% < 20% (prev -5.21%; Δ 17.92% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.30b > Net Income 208.8m |
| Net Debt (9.00b) to EBITDA (2.02b): 4.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (358.5m) vs 12m ago -8.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.59% > 18% (prev 18.78%; Δ 1.81% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 33.17% > 50% (prev 34.31%; Δ -1.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.42 > 6 (EBIT TTM 676.6m / Interest Expense TTM 478.1m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 2.52b - Total Current Liabilities 1.67b) / Total Assets 20.9b |
| B: 0.00 (Retained Earnings 6.32m / Total Assets 20.9b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 676.6m / Avg Total Assets 20.2b) |
| D: 0.54 (Book Value of Equity 7.30b / Total Liabilities 13.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.06 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 928.3m/821.8m, Revenue 6.70b/6.68b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 18.78% / 20.59%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.52 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 6.70b / 6.68b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 208.8m - CFO 1.30b) / TA 20.9b) |
| Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.66 with a total of 3,110,100 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.83%, over one month by +7.58%, over three months by +0.22% and over the past year by -19.37%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 37.10 (which is 4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Gfl Environmental Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.11. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GFL.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 49 | 26.7% |
Market Cap CAD = 21.1b (15.0b USD * 1.405 USD.CAD)
P/E Trailing = 112.1892
P/E Forward = 47.8469
P/S = 2.2365
P/B = 2.6385
Revenue TTM = 6.70b CAD
EBIT TTM = 676.6m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 2.02b CAD
Long Term Debt = 9.38b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 74.0m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.4b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 518.0m
Net Debt = 9.00b CAD (calculated: Debt 10.4b - CCE 1.44b)
Enterprise Value = 30.0b CAD (21.1b + Debt 10.4b - CCE 1.44b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.42 (Ebit TTM 676.6m / Interest Expense TTM 478.1m)
EV/FCF = 343.8x (Enterprise Value 30.0b / FCF TTM 87.4m)
FCF Yield = 0.29% (FCF TTM 87.4m / Enterprise Value 30.0b)
FCF Margin = 1.30% (FCF TTM 87.4m / Revenue TTM 6.70b)
Net Margin = 3.12% (Net Income TTM 208.8m / Revenue TTM 6.70b)
Gross Margin = 20.59% ((Revenue TTM 6.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.24% (prev 20.02%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.44 (Enterprise Value 30.0b / Total Assets 20.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.58% (Interest Expense 478.1m / Debt 10.4b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 534.5m (EBIT 676.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.51 (Total Current Assets 2.52b / Total Current Liabilities 1.67b)
Debt / Equity = 1.43 (Debt 10.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.30b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.45 (Net Debt 9.00b / EBITDA 2.02b)
Debt / FCF = 102.9 (Net Debt 9.00b / FCF TTM 87.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.03% (Net Income 208.8m / Total Assets 20.9b)
RoE = 2.80% (Net Income TTM 208.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.47b)
RoCE = 4.02% (EBIT 676.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.47b + L.T.Debt 9.38b))
RoIC = 2.81% (NOPAT 534.5m / Invested Capital 19.0b)
WACC = 4.20% (E(21.1b)/V(31.5b) * Re(4.49%) + D(10.4b)/V(31.5b) * Rd(4.58%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 4.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -31.14 | Cagr: -1.47%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈139.7m ; Y1≈122.5m ; Y5≈99.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.59b - Net Debt 9.00b = -7.41b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 2.48 | EPS CAGR: 1.01% | SUE: -0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -88.46 | Revenue CAGR: -4.71% | SUE: 0.02 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=+3.53% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=15
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=+4.46% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=+1.99% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+25.1% | GrowthRev=+11.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=+5.22% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+38.3% | GrowthRev=+8.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40% (up=2, down=0)