GFL Stock Analysis: Gfl Environmental Holdings | NYSE
Waste Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 15.276m USD | 12M Return: -6.9% | CA36168Q1046 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 135M
EPS Trend: 18.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -78.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
GFL Environmental Inc. is a large-cap industrials company listed on the NYSE under the ticker GFL, providing non-hazardous solid waste management services across Canada and the United States. Its offerings span the full waste management value chain, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal, serving municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007, is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida, and completed its IPO in March 2020.
The solid waste management industry is generally considered defensive, with stable demand driven by recurring collection contracts and the essential nature of waste disposal services for municipalities and businesses. Companies in this sub-industry typically generate revenue through a mix of long-term municipal contracts, commercial subscription agreements, and volume-based fees at transfer stations and landfills.
- M&A pipeline accelerates solid waste market consolidation
- Pricing growth drives core collection margin expansion
- Elevated leverage amplifies interest rate and refinancing risk
| Net Income: -227.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.85% < 20% (prev -8.87%; Δ 2.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.40b > Net Income -227.4m |
| Net Debt (10.5b) to EBITDA (1.79b): 5.85 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (361.4m) vs 12m ago -5.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.99% > 18% (prev 19.72%; Δ 0.27% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 34.81% > 50% (prev 36.57%; Δ -1.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.74 > 6 (EBIT TTM 385.3m / Interest Expense TTM 521.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.45b - Total Current Liabilities 1.93b) / Total Assets 21.5b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -218.6m / Total Assets 21.5b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 385.3m / Avg Total Assets 20.0b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 7.36b / Total Liabilities 14.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.50 = B |
| DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 1.05b/853.0m, Revenue 6.97b/6.78b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 19.72% / 19.99%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.56 / AQ_t-1 0.57) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 6.97b / 6.78b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI -227.4m - CFO 1.40b) / TA 21.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 42.38 with a total of 2,752,315 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.24%, over one month by -0.54%, over three months by +8.22% and over the past year by -6.90%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 40.30 (which is 4.9% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Gfl Environmental Holdings has no consensus analysts rating.
| Analysts Target Price | 50.6 | 19.5% |
Market Cap CAD = 21.8b (15.3b USD * 1.4281 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 37.4532
P/S = 2.1911
P/B = 3.4841
Revenue TTM = 6.97b CAD
EBIT TTM = 385.3m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 1.79b CAD
Long Term Debt = 9.60b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 74.5m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.7b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 543.1m
Net Debt = 10.5b CAD (calculated: Debt 10.7b - CCE 192.2m)
Enterprise Value = 32.3b CAD (21.8b + Debt 10.7b - CCE 192.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.74 (Ebit TTM 385.3m / Interest Expense TTM 521.0m)
EV/FCF = 168.2x (Enterprise Value 32.3b / FCF TTM 192.2m)
FCF Yield = 0.59% (FCF TTM 192.2m / Enterprise Value 32.3b)
FCF Margin = 2.76% (FCF TTM 192.2m / Revenue TTM 6.97b)
Net Margin = -3.26% (Net Income TTM -227.4m / Revenue TTM 6.97b)
Gross Margin = 19.99% ((Revenue TTM 6.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.81% (prev 18.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.50 (Enterprise Value 32.3b / Total Assets 21.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.87% (Interest Expense 521.0m / Debt 10.7b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 304.4m (EBIT 385.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 1.45b / Total Current Liabilities 1.93b)
Debt / Equity = 1.45 (Debt 10.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.85 (Net Debt 10.5b / EBITDA 1.79b)
Debt / FCF = 54.63 (Net Debt 10.5b / FCF TTM 192.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.13% (Net Income -227.4m / Total Assets 21.5b)
RoE = -3.08% (Net Income TTM -227.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.39b)
RoCE = 2.27% (EBIT 385.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.39b + L.T.Debt 9.60b))
RoIC = 1.56% (NOPAT 304.4m / Invested Capital 19.5b)
WACC = 4.11% (E(21.8b)/V(32.5b) * Re(4.24%) + D(10.7b)/V(32.5b) * Rd(4.87%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 4.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -60.52 | Cagr: -1.40%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.58% ; FCFF base≈191.3m ; Y1≈193.9m ; Y5≈209.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.25b - Net Debt 10.5b = -7.25b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 18.76 | EPS CAGR: 7.90% | SUE: -0.35 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -78.17 | Revenue CAGR: -3.96% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=-4.79% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.84 | Chg30d=-6.10% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+12.1% | GrowthRev=+21.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=-8.75% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+64.5% | GrowthRev=+22.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +59% (up=12, down=2)