GFL Stock Analysis: Gfl Environmental Holdings | NYSE
Waste Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 14.912m USD | 12M Return: -17.3% | CA36168Q1046 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 77.1M
EPS Trend: 18.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -78.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
GFL Environmental Inc. is a North American provider of non-hazardous solid waste management services, operating in both Canada and the United States. Its service offering covers the full waste management chain, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal, serving municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007, is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida, and trades on the NYSE under the ticker GFL after its March 2020 IPO.
As an Environmental & Facilities Services company within the Industrials sector, GFL operates in an industry characterized by high capital intensity, given the need for collection fleets, transfer stations, and disposal assets such as landfills. The business model is supported by recurring revenue streams, often anchored by long-term municipal contracts and exclusive franchise rights that create barriers to entry in local markets. The sector is generally considered defensive, with demand for waste collection and disposal services remaining relatively stable across economic cycles.
- Acquisition pipeline drives North American solid waste segment growth
- Landfill pricing power and volumes expand core operating margins
- Leveraged balance sheet sensitivity shapes capital allocation amid rate cuts
| Net Income: -227.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.85% < 20% (prev -8.87%; Δ 2.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.40b > Net Income -227.4m |
| Net Debt (10.5b) to EBITDA (1.79b): 5.85 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (361.4m) vs 12m ago -5.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.99% > 18% (prev 19.72%; Δ 0.27% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 34.81% > 50% (prev 36.57%; Δ -1.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.74 > 6 (EBIT TTM 385.3m / Interest Expense TTM 521.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.45b - Total Current Liabilities 1.93b) / Total Assets 21.5b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -218.6m / Total Assets 21.5b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 385.3m / Avg Total Assets 20.0b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 7.36b / Total Liabilities 14.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.50 = B |
| DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 1.05b/853.0m, Revenue 6.97b/6.78b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 19.72% / 19.99%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.56 / AQ_t-1 0.57) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 6.97b / 6.78b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI -227.4m - CFO 1.40b) / TA 21.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 41.65 with a total of 1,686,752 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.24%, over one month by +6.36%, over three months by +14.98% and over the past year by -17.31%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 40.20 (which is 3.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Gfl Environmental Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.11. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GFL.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 51.4 | 23.3% |
Market Cap CAD = 20.8b (14.9b USD * 1.3923 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 54.3478
P/S = 2.1388
P/B = 2.8393
Revenue TTM = 6.97b CAD
EBIT TTM = 385.3m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 1.79b CAD
Long Term Debt = 9.60b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 74.5m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.7b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 543.1m
Net Debt = 10.5b CAD (calculated: Debt 10.7b - CCE 192.2m)
Enterprise Value = 31.3b CAD (20.8b + Debt 10.7b - CCE 192.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.74 (Ebit TTM 385.3m / Interest Expense TTM 521.0m)
EV/FCF = 162.7x (Enterprise Value 31.3b / FCF TTM 192.2m)
FCF Yield = 0.61% (FCF TTM 192.2m / Enterprise Value 31.3b)
FCF Margin = 2.76% (FCF TTM 192.2m / Revenue TTM 6.97b)
Net Margin = -3.26% (Net Income TTM -227.4m / Revenue TTM 6.97b)
Gross Margin = 19.99% ((Revenue TTM 6.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.81% (prev 18.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 31.3b / Total Assets 21.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.87% (Interest Expense 521.0m / Debt 10.7b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 304.4m (EBIT 385.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.75 (Total Current Assets 1.45b / Total Current Liabilities 1.93b)
Debt / Equity = 1.45 (Debt 10.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.85 (Net Debt 10.5b / EBITDA 1.79b)
Debt / FCF = 54.63 (Net Debt 10.5b / FCF TTM 192.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.13% (Net Income -227.4m / Total Assets 21.5b)
RoE = -3.08% (Net Income TTM -227.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.39b)
RoCE = 2.27% (EBIT 385.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.39b + L.T.Debt 9.60b))
RoIC = 1.56% (NOPAT 304.4m / Invested Capital 19.5b)
WACC = 4.13% (E(20.8b)/V(31.5b) * Re(4.27%) + D(10.7b)/V(31.5b) * Rd(4.87%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 4.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -60.52 | Cagr: -1.40%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.58% ; FCFF base≈191.3m ; Y1≈193.9m ; Y5≈209.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.25b - Net Debt 10.5b = -7.25b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 18.76 | EPS CAGR: 7.90% | SUE: -0.35 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -78.17 | Revenue CAGR: -3.96% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=-18.58% | Revisions=+44% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.82 | Chg30d=-12.28% | Revisions=+30% | GrowthEPS=+9.8% | GrowthRev=+13.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.24 | Chg30d=-4.72% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+50.2% | GrowthRev=+7.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +41% (up=14, down=5)