GGB Stock Analysis: Gerdau | NYSE
Steel | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.829m USD | 12M Return: 63% | US3737371050 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 63.3M
EPS Trend: -49.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 22.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Gerdau S.A. is a Brazilian steel producer operating through three regional segments: Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business. Its product portfolio includes rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles, with specialty steel offerings serving the agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets. The company also operates iron ore mines in Brazil, reflecting a vertically integrated business model that combines raw material extraction with steel manufacturing.
Founded in 1901 and headquartered in São Paulo, Gerdau trades on the NYSE under the ticker GGB. The steel sector is capital-intensive and cyclical, and backward integration into iron ore mining is a common strategy used by producers to reduce exposure to raw material price volatility.
- Global steel prices rise on constrained Chinese exports
- Brazilian construction cycle drives rebar volume growth
- Iron ore sales from integrated mines lift segment margins
| Net Income: 2.24b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.58% < 20% (prev 31.53%; Δ -3.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 9.12b > Net Income 2.24b |
| Net Debt (11.3b) to EBITDA (8.87b): 1.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.98b) vs 12m ago -2.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 13.10% > 18% (prev 12.41%; Δ 0.70% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.38% > 50% (prev 79.56%; Δ 2.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.17b / Interest Expense TTM 1.30b) |
| A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 29.4b - Total Current Liabilities 10.3b) / Total Assets 82.0b |
| B: 0.28 (Retained Earnings 22.6b / Total Assets 82.0b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 5.17b / Avg Total Assets 84.4b) |
| D: 1.90 (Book Value of Equity 53.5b / Total Liabilities 28.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.84 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 7.27b/7.58b, Revenue 69.5b/69.1b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 12.41% / 13.10%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 69.5b / 69.1b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 2.24b - CFO 9.12b) / TA 82.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.12 with a total of 15,953,294 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.20%, over one month by +2.20%, over three months by +17.32% and over the past year by +63.02%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.70 (which is 8.2% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
Gerdau has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GGB.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.6 | 9.2% |
Market Cap BRL = 49.1b (9.83b USD * 4.9922 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 22.7727
P/E Forward = 6.2035
P/S = 0.1413
P/B = 0.9461
P/EG = 90.9541
Revenue TTM = 69.5b BRL
EBIT TTM = 5.17b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 8.87b BRL
Long Term Debt = 12.9b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.11b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.8b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.61b
Net Debt = 11.3b BRL (calculated: Debt 16.8b - CCE 5.44b)
Enterprise Value = 60.4b BRL (49.1b + Debt 16.8b - CCE 5.44b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.97 (Ebit TTM 5.17b / Interest Expense TTM 1.30b)
EV/FCF = 17.12x (Enterprise Value 60.4b / FCF TTM 3.53b)
FCF Yield = 5.84% (FCF TTM 3.53b / Enterprise Value 60.4b)
FCF Margin = 5.07% (FCF TTM 3.53b / Revenue TTM 69.5b)
Net Margin = 3.22% (Net Income TTM 2.24b / Revenue TTM 69.5b)
Gross Margin = 13.10% ((Revenue TTM 69.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 60.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.83% (prev 13.72%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 60.4b / Total Assets 82.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.75% (Interest Expense 1.30b / Debt 16.8b)
Taxrate = 40.65% (1.56b / 3.83b)
NOPAT = 3.07b (EBIT 5.17b * (1 - 40.65%))
Current Ratio = 2.87 (Total Current Assets 29.4b / Total Current Liabilities 10.3b)
Debt / Equity = 0.31 (Debt 16.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 53.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.28 (Net Debt 11.3b / EBITDA 8.87b)
Debt / FCF = 3.21 (Net Debt 11.3b / FCF TTM 3.53b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 53.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.65% (Net Income 2.24b / Total Assets 82.0b)
RoE = 4.17% (Net Income TTM 2.24b / Total Stockholder Equity 53.6b)
RoCE = 7.77% (EBIT 5.17b / Capital Employed (Equity 53.6b + L.T.Debt 12.9b))
RoIC = 4.42% (NOPAT 3.07b / Invested Capital 69.3b)
WACC = 9.56% (E(49.1b)/V(65.8b) * Re(11.26%) + D(16.8b)/V(65.8b) * Rd(7.75%) * (1-Tc(0.41)))
Discount Rate = 11.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -76.31 | Cagr: -10.46%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.08% ; FCFF base≈3.46b ; Y1≈3.63b ; Y5≈4.20b
[DCF] Fair Price = 33.89 (EV 53.5b - Net Debt 11.3b = Equity 42.2b / Shares 1.24b; r=9.56% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 5.46% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -49.23 | EPS CAGR: -20.34% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 22.70 | Revenue CAGR: 0.82% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.98 | Chg30d=+17.92% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.87 | Chg30d=+6.34% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+74.7% | GrowthRev=+1.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.01 | Chg30d=+0.14% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+4.6% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +38% (up=4, down=1)