GGB Stock Analysis: Gerdau | NYSE
Steel | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.323m USD | 12M Return: 49.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 71.3M
EPS Trend: -64.3%
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: -24.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Gerdau S.A. is a Brazilian integrated steel producer founded in 1901 and headquartered in São Paulo. The company operates through three geographic segments: Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business, and is listed on the NYSE under the ticker GGB.
Gerdau manufactures a broad range of steel products, including rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot-rolled coils, billets, blooms, wire rods, and structural profiles. It also produces specialty steels serving the agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets. In addition, the company operates iron ore mines in Brazil, giving it a degree of vertical integration over a key raw material input. Vertical integration into raw materials is a common strategy among large integrated steelmakers seeking to manage input cost volatility.
Gerdau sits within the GICS Materials sector and the Steel sub-industry, a cyclical segment whose demand is closely tied to construction, infrastructure, and industrial activity. As a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of roughly $9.2 billion USD, it is among the larger publicly traded steel producers based in the Americas.
- Brazil infrastructure spending boosts domestic steel demand
- North American steel margins track auto and construction cycles
- Chinese steel export surge pressures global pricing and spreads
| Net Income: 1.64b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 26.32% < 20% (prev 29.33%; Δ -3.01% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 8.60b > Net Income 1.64b |
| Net Debt (11.3b) to EBITDA (8.05b): 1.41 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.98b) vs 12m ago -3.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.02% > 18% (prev 12.80%; Δ -0.79% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 83.06% > 50% (prev 79.69%; Δ 3.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.22 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.34b / Interest Expense TTM 1.35b) |
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 28.6b - Total Current Liabilities 10.4b) / Total Assets 81.0b |
| B: 0.29 (Retained Earnings 23.7b / Total Assets 81.0b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 4.34b / Avg Total Assets 83.3b) |
| D: 1.88 (Book Value of Equity 52.8b / Total Liabilities 28.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.75 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.87 (Receivables 7.22b/8.20b, Revenue 69.2b/68.2b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 12.80% / 12.02%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.25 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 69.2b / 68.2b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 1.64b - CFO 8.60b) / TA 81.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.41 with a total of 22,672,609 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.70%, over one month by -3.29%, over three months by +6.31% and over the past year by +49.12%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.00 (which is 9.3% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).
Gerdau has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GGB.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.5 | 24% |
Market Cap BRL = 42.6b (8.32b USD * 5.1161 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 26.4375
P/E Forward = 6.9204
P/S = 0.1203
P/B = 0.7864
P/EG = 90.9541
Revenue TTM = 69.2b BRL
EBIT TTM = 4.34b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 8.05b BRL
Long Term Debt = 12.9b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.38b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.9b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.54b
Net Debt = 11.3b BRL (calculated: Debt 16.9b - CCE 5.59b)
Enterprise Value = 53.9b BRL (42.6b + Debt 16.9b - CCE 5.59b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.22 (Ebit TTM 4.34b / Interest Expense TTM 1.35b)
EV/FCF = 22.37x (Enterprise Value 53.9b / FCF TTM 2.41b)
FCF Yield = 4.47% (FCF TTM 2.41b / Enterprise Value 53.9b)
FCF Margin = 3.48% (FCF TTM 2.41b / Revenue TTM 69.2b)
Net Margin = 2.37% (Net Income TTM 1.64b / Revenue TTM 69.2b)
Gross Margin = 12.02% ((Revenue TTM 69.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 60.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.72% (prev 10.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.67 (Enterprise Value 53.9b / Total Assets 81.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.96% (Interest Expense 1.35b / Debt 16.9b)
Taxrate = 43.44% (1.29b / 2.96b)
NOPAT = 2.45b (EBIT 4.34b * (1 - 43.44%))
Current Ratio = 2.76 (Total Current Assets 28.6b / Total Current Liabilities 10.4b)
Debt / Equity = 0.32 (Debt 16.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 52.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.41 (Net Debt 11.3b / EBITDA 8.05b)
Debt / FCF = 4.70 (Net Debt 11.3b / FCF TTM 2.41b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 54.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.97% (Net Income 1.64b / Total Assets 81.0b)
RoE = 3.04% (Net Income TTM 1.64b / Total Stockholder Equity 54.0b)
RoCE = 6.49% (EBIT 4.34b / Capital Employed (Equity 54.0b + L.T.Debt 12.9b))
RoIC = 3.58% (NOPAT 2.45b / Invested Capital 68.6b)
WACC = 9.36% (E(42.6b)/V(59.5b) * Re(11.29%) + D(16.9b)/V(59.5b) * Rd(7.96%) * (1-Tc(0.43)))
Discount Rate = 11.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -89.89 | Cagr: -2.78%
[DCF] Terminal Value 69.41% ; FCFF base≈3.34b ; Y1≈2.93b ; Y5≈2.37b
[DCF] Fair Price = 17.01 (EV 32.6b - Net Debt 11.3b = Equity 21.3b / Shares 1.25b; r=9.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -64.31 | EPS CAGR: -29.31% | SUE: -2.14 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: -24.23 | Revenue CAGR: -1.22% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.82 | Chg30d=-13.06% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.80 | Chg30d=-3.42% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.79 | Chg30d=-1.20% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+69.8% | GrowthRev=+0.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.95 | Chg30d=+3.51% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +38% (up=4, down=1)