(GGG) Graco - Ratings and Ratios
Sprayers, Pumps, Meters, Valves,
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.32% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.74% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.87% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 39.0% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 31.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.65% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.40 |
| Alpha | -19.30 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.41 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.367 |
| Beta | 0.750 |
| Beta Downside | 0.752 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.83% |
| Mean DD | 8.01% |
| Median DD | 8.56% |
Description: GGG Graco October 30, 2025
Graco Inc. (NYSE: GGG) designs, manufactures, and markets fluid-handling systems that move, measure, mix, control, dispense, and spray liquids and powders across four geographic regions. Its business is organized into three segments: the Contractor segment, which supplies spray equipment for paints, polyurethane foams, and road markings; the Industrial segment, which offers pumps, proportioners, and precision dispensing tools for coatings, adhesives, composites, and powder-coating systems (including the Gema and SAT brands); and the Process segment, which provides pumps, valves, meters, and lubrication solutions for chemicals, oil & gas, water treatment, automotive service centers, and high-pressure applications.
Key metrics from the most recent fiscal year show revenue of roughly $2.2 billion and an adjusted operating margin near 12%, reflecting strong pricing power in niche industrial applications. Growth is driven by macro-level factors such as sustained U.S. infrastructure spending, which fuels demand for road-marking and coating equipment, and the broader trend toward automation in manufacturing that underpins sales of precision dispensing and composite-layup systems. Additionally, the automotive aftermarket’s shift toward higher-value service offerings (e.g., fast-oil-change and fleet maintenance) supports the Process segment’s equipment sales.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s platform useful for modeling Graco’s valuation under different growth scenarios.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income (498.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 131.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.19 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.73pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 46.52% (prev 58.75%; Δ -12.23pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 (>3.0%) and CFO 672.5m > Net Income 498.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-555.5m) to EBITDA (686.0m) ratio: -0.81 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.18 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (168.6m) change vs 12m ago -2.03% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 52.27% (prev 53.64%; Δ -1.37pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 70.62% (prev 71.62%; Δ -1.01pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 167.1 (EBITDA TTM 686.0m / Interest Expense TTM 2.87m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 7.29
| (A) 0.32 = (Total Current Assets 1.49b - Total Current Liabilities 467.8m) / Total Assets 3.23b |
| (B) 0.44 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.43b / Total Assets 3.23b |
| (C) 0.15 = EBIT TTM 480.2m / Avg Total Assets 3.10b |
| (D) 2.60 = Book Value of Equity 1.62b / Total Liabilities 624.0m |
| Total Rating: 7.29 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 78.96
| 1. Piotroski 6.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.77% |
| 3. FCF Margin 28.51% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.02 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.81 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.50)% |
| 7. RoE 19.59% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 17.06% |
| 9. EPS Trend 38.14% |
What is the price of GGG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.25%, over one month by +1.52%, over three months by -2.47% and over the past year by -5.07%.
Is GGG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GGG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 92 | 10.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 92 | 10.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 86.6 | 3.8% |
GGG Fundamental Data Overview December 02, 2025
P/E Trailing = 28.1365
P/E Forward = 25.7732
P/S = 6.2351
P/B = 5.2388
P/EG = 2.4692
Beta = 1.093
Revenue TTM = 2.19b USD
EBIT TTM = 480.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 686.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 26.4m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 45.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 63.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -555.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.11b USD (13.67b + Debt 63.2m - CCE 618.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 167.1 (Ebit TTM 480.2m / Interest Expense TTM 2.87m)
FCF Yield = 4.77% (FCF TTM 624.9m / Enterprise Value 13.11b)
FCF Margin = 28.51% (FCF TTM 624.9m / Revenue TTM 2.19b)
Net Margin = 22.72% (Net Income TTM 498.1m / Revenue TTM 2.19b)
Gross Margin = 52.27% ((Revenue TTM 2.19b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.05b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.23% (prev 52.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.06 (Enterprise Value 13.11b / Total Assets 3.23b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.13% (Interest Expense 711.0k / Debt 63.2m)
Taxrate = 18.30% (30.8m / 168.5m)
NOPAT = 392.3m (EBIT 480.2m * (1 - 18.30%))
Current Ratio = 3.18 (Total Current Assets 1.49b / Total Current Liabilities 467.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 63.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.61b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.81 (Net Debt -555.5m / EBITDA 686.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.89 (Net Debt -555.5m / FCF TTM 624.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.41% (Net Income 498.1m / Total Assets 3.23b)
RoE = 19.59% (Net Income TTM 498.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.54b)
RoCE = 18.69% (EBIT 480.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.54b + L.T.Debt 26.4m))
RoIC = 15.25% (NOPAT 392.3m / Invested Capital 2.57b)
WACC = 8.74% (E(13.67b)/V(13.73b) * Re(8.78%) + D(63.2m)/V(13.73b) * Rd(1.13%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 8.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.93%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.09% ; FCFE base≈560.6m ; Y1≈691.6m ; Y5≈1.18b
Fair Price DCF = 105.3 (DCF Value 17.46b / Shares Outstanding 165.8m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 38.14 | EPS CAGR: 2.72% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 17.06 | Revenue CAGR: 0.18% | SUE: -0.98 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.18 | Chg30d=-0.023 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+7.3% | Growth Revenue=+4.8%
Additional Sources for GGG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle