GOOS Stock Analysis: Canada Goose Holdings | NYSE
Apparel Manufacturing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 914m USD | 12M Return: -26.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.92M
EPS Trend: -67.5%
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: 94.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. is a Toronto-based company founded in 1957 that designs, manufactures, and sells performance luxury outerwear, apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, youth, children, and babies. Its product range includes knitwear, sweats, t-shirts, rainwear, fleece, vests, down jackets, sneakers, boots, hats, scarves, gloves, bags, and eyewear, sold under the Canada Goose, Snow Goose, and Baffin brands across Canada, the United States, Greater China, rest of Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates through three reportable segments: Direct-to-Consumer (e-commerce and directly operated retail stores), Wholesale, and Other.
The business sits within the GICS Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods sub-industry, a segment of Consumer Discretionary that includes companies competing on brand prestige, design, and product differentiation. Canada Gooses hybrid model combines direct retail and digital channels with traditional wholesale distribution, a structure typical of premium apparel brands transitioning toward greater direct control of the customer relationship to support brand positioning and pricing power.
- Direct-to-consumer channel expansion lifts revenue mix and margins
- Greater China luxury demand softness pressures comparable sales growth
- Wholesale rationalization trade-off weighs on near-term shipment volumes
| Net Income: 22.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 39.33% < 20% (prev 40.55%; Δ -1.23% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 159.9m > Net Income 22.6m |
| Net Debt (752.6m) to EBITDA (220.2m): 3.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.63 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (99.2m) vs 12m ago 1.09% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 67.40% > 18% (prev 69.94%; Δ -2.54% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 90.64% > 50% (prev 83.40%; Δ 7.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 88.6m / Interest Expense TTM 39.7m) |
| A: 0.34 (Total Current Assets 970.9m - Total Current Liabilities 369.5m) / Total Assets 1.76b |
| B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 370.2m / Total Assets 1.76b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 88.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.69b) |
| D: 0.54 (Book Value of Equity 610.0m / Total Liabilities 1.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.85 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 128.6m/93.0m, Revenue 1.53b/1.35b) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 69.94% / 67.40%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.19) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 1.53b / 1.35b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 22.6m - CFO 159.9m) / TA 1.76b) |
| Beneish M = -2.79 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.56 with a total of 365,676 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.10%, over one month by -2.55%, over three months by -14.95% and over the past year by -26.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.10 (which is 4.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Canada Goose Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GOOS.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 4
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 9.5 | -0.6% |
Market Cap CAD = 1.30b (914.3m USD * 1.417 USD.CAD)
P/E Trailing = 58.5125
P/E Forward = 9.1241
P/S = 0.5983
P/B = 2.1739
P/EG = 3.02
Revenue TTM = 1.53b CAD
EBIT TTM = 88.6m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 220.2m CAD
Long Term Debt = 406.4m CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 97.3m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.16b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 374.6m
Net Debt = 752.6m CAD (calculated: Debt 1.16b - CCE 409.3m)
Enterprise Value = 2.05b CAD (1.30b + Debt 1.16b - CCE 409.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.23 (Ebit TTM 88.6m / Interest Expense TTM 39.7m)
EV/FCF = 17.59x (Enterprise Value 2.05b / FCF TTM 116.4m)
FCF Yield = 5.68% (FCF TTM 116.4m / Enterprise Value 2.05b)
FCF Margin = 7.61% (FCF TTM 116.4m / Revenue TTM 1.53b)
Net Margin = 1.48% (Net Income TTM 22.6m / Revenue TTM 1.53b)
Gross Margin = 67.40% ((Revenue TTM 1.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 498.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 61.77% (prev 73.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.17 (Enterprise Value 2.05b / Total Assets 1.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.42% (Interest Expense 39.7m / Debt 1.16b)
Taxrate = 48.31% (26.1m / 54.0m)
NOPAT = 45.8m (EBIT 88.6m * (1 - 48.31%))
Current Ratio = 2.63 (Total Current Assets 970.9m / Total Current Liabilities 369.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.90 (Debt 1.16b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 610.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.42 (Net Debt 752.6m / EBITDA 220.2m)
Debt / FCF = 6.46 (Net Debt 752.6m / FCF TTM 116.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 525.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.34% (Net Income 22.6m / Total Assets 1.76b)
RoE = 4.30% (Net Income TTM 22.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 525.4m)
RoCE = 9.50% (EBIT 88.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 525.4m + L.T.Debt 406.4m))
RoIC = 3.25% (NOPAT 45.8m / Invested Capital 1.41b)
WACC = 6.14% (E(1.30b)/V(2.46b) * Re(10.07%) + D(1.16b)/V(2.46b) * Rd(3.42%) * (1-Tc(0.48)))
Discount Rate = 10.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 8.99 | Cagr: -0.92%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈142.9m ; Y1≈125.3m ; Y5≈101.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 18.69 (EV 1.62b - Net Debt 752.6m = Equity 872.1m / Shares 46.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -67.51 | EPS CAGR: -11.91% | SUE: -1.17 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: 94.44 | Revenue CAGR: 7.41% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.72 | Chg30d=-1.30% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=10
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.15 | Chg30d=-5.80% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=+3.70% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+33.5% | GrowthRev=+3.0%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=0.85 | Chg30d=+4.87% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+11.3% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +11% (up=14, down=11)