GPK Stock Analysis: Graphic Packaging Holding | NYSE
Packaging & Containers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.210m USD | 12M Return: -52.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 55.2M
EPS Trend: -87.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -95.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) designs, manufactures, and sells consumer packaging products to brands in the food, beverage, foodservice, household, and related consumer goods sectors. The company operates across the Americas, Europe, and Asia Pacific, supplying consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, quick-service restaurant chains, and other end markets.
The business is structured around two reportable segments. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment covers paperboard packaging sold to CPG customers in the Americas, along with cups, lids, and food containers supplied to foodservice operators. The International Paperboard Packaging segment handles paperboard packaging sold outside the Americas, including applications in healthcare and beauty. In addition to substrates, the company designs, manufactures, and installs specialized packaging machinery, giving it an integrated offering that pairs equipment with proprietary paperboard formats.
GPK distributes through both direct sales offices and third-party broker arrangements, and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. It sits within the GICS Materials sector under the Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials sub-industry, and trades as a U.S. mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $3.17 billion USD.
- Americas Paperboard Packaging volumes track CPG customer demand
- Foodservice cup demand rebounds with quick-service restaurant traffic
- Pulp and recycled fiber cost inflation pressures consolidated margins
| Net Income: 274.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.90% < 20% (prev 15.97%; Δ -6.06% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 915.0m > Net Income 274.0m |
| Net Debt (5.57b) to EBITDA (1.15b): 4.85 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (296.7m) vs 12m ago -2.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.94% > 18% (prev 21.95%; Δ -5.01% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 74.64% > 50% (prev 75.39%; Δ -0.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.57 > 6 (EBIT TTM 604.0m / Interest Expense TTM 235.0m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 2.96b - Total Current Liabilities 2.10b) / Total Assets 11.7b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 1.54b / Total Assets 11.7b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 604.0m / Avg Total Assets 11.6b) |
| D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 3.25b / Total Liabilities 8.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.66 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 861.0m/863.0m, Revenue 8.65b/8.67b) |
| GMI: 1.30 (GM 21.95% / 16.94%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 8.65b / 8.67b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 274.0m - CFO 915.0m) / TA 11.7b) |
| Beneish M = -2.78 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.28 with a total of 2,195,790 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.25%, over one month by +0.55%, over three months by +7.41% and over the past year by -52.94%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.60 (which is 6.6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Graphic Packaging Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.90. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GPK.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 11.8 | 14.6% |
P/E Trailing = 11.7935
P/E Forward = 14.4718
P/S = 0.371
P/B = 0.9887
P/EG = 3.3305
Revenue TTM = 8.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 604.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.20b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 549.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.76b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.00m
Net Debt = 5.57b USD (calculated: Debt 5.76b - CCE 189.0m)
Enterprise Value = 8.78b USD (3.21b + Debt 5.76b - CCE 189.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.57 (Ebit TTM 604.0m / Interest Expense TTM 235.0m)
EV/FCF = 57.39x (Enterprise Value 8.78b / FCF TTM 153.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.74% (FCF TTM 153.0m / Enterprise Value 8.78b)
FCF Margin = 1.77% (FCF TTM 153.0m / Revenue TTM 8.65b)
Net Margin = 3.17% (Net Income TTM 274.0m / Revenue TTM 8.65b)
Gross Margin = 16.94% ((Revenue TTM 8.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.10% (prev 14.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 8.78b / Total Assets 11.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.08% (Interest Expense 235.0m / Debt 5.76b)
Taxrate = 25.54% (94.0m / 368.0m)
NOPAT = 449.7m (EBIT 604.0m * (1 - 25.54%))
Current Ratio = 1.41 (Total Current Assets 2.96b / Total Current Liabilities 2.10b)
Debt / Equity = 1.77 (Debt 5.76b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.85 (Net Debt 5.57b / EBITDA 1.15b)
Debt / FCF = 36.41 (Net Debt 5.57b / FCF TTM 153.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.27b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.36% (Net Income 274.0m / Total Assets 11.7b)
RoE = 8.38% (Net Income TTM 274.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.27b)
RoCE = 7.13% (EBIT 604.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.27b + L.T.Debt 5.20b))
RoIC = 4.52% (NOPAT 449.7m / Invested Capital 9.95b)
WACC = 5.02% (E(3.21b)/V(8.97b) * Re(8.58%) + D(5.76b)/V(8.97b) * Rd(4.08%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -82.22 | Cagr: -1.72%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈153.0m ; Y1≈153.6m ; Y5≈162.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.53b - Net Debt 5.57b = -3.04b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -87.14 | EPS CAGR: -22.97% | SUE: 0.84 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -95.57 | Revenue CAGR: -4.51% | SUE: 1.65 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-73% | Analysts=10
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-8% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.85 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-58% | GrowthEPS=-52.9% | GrowthRev=-0.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.17 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-58% | GrowthEPS=+38.1% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -61% (up=6, down=29)