(GPK) Graphic Packaging Holding - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Packaging & Containers | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.971m USD | Total Return: -54.4% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 73.2M
EPS Trend: -87.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is a vertically integrated provider of fiber-based packaging solutions for the global food, beverage, and foodservice industries. Operating through two primary segments, Americas and International Paperboard Packaging, the company manufactures paperboard products, cups, and food containers, while also designing and installing specialized packaging machinery for consumer packaged goods (CPG) clients.
The company operates within a capital-intensive sector where profitability is often driven by mill integration rates and the ability to substitute plastic packaging with recyclable fiber alternatives. As a major player in the circular economy, GPK focuses on closed-loop systems by utilizing recycled fiber and sustainably sourced virgin paperboard to meet growing regulatory and consumer demand for biodegradable materials.
Investors can evaluate the companys valuation metrics and competitive landscape by exploring the data on ValueRay. Graphic Packaging Holding Company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and maintains a broad distribution network through direct sales offices and third-party broker arrangements.
- Consumer shift toward fiber-based packaging drives plastic-to-paperboard conversion revenue
- Fluctuating recycled and virgin fiber input costs impact operating margins
- Integration of high-capacity Waco mill improves manufacturing efficiency and cash flow
- Global consumer packaged goods demand volatility affects organic volume growth
- Expansion in European market increases exposure to international regulatory standards
| Net Income: 274.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.90% < 20% (prev 15.97%; Δ -6.06% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 915.0m > Net Income 274.0m |
| Net Debt (5.57b) to EBITDA (1.22b): 4.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (296.7m) vs 12m ago -2.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.94% > 18% (prev 0.22%; Δ 1.67k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 74.64% > 50% (prev 75.39%; Δ -0.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.86 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.22b / Interest Expense TTM 235.0m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 2.96b - Total Current Liabilities 2.10b) / Total Assets 11.7b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 1.54b / Total Assets 11.7b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 672.0m / Avg Total Assets 11.6b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.26b / Total Liabilities 8.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.46 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 861.0m/863.0m, Revenue 8.65b/8.67b) |
| GMI: 1.30 (GM 16.94% / 21.95%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 8.65b / 8.67b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 274.0m - CFO 915.0m) / TA 11.7b) |
| Beneish M = -2.83 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of May 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.04 with a total of 4,663,514 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.50%,
over one month by +8.77%,
over three months by -15.42% and
over the past year by -54.37%.
Graphic Packaging Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.85. Therefore, it is recommended to buy GPK.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 11.8 | 17.4% |
P/E Forward = 13.1234
P/S = 0.3433
P/B = 0.8967
P/EG = 3.3305
Revenue TTM = 8.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 672.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.22b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.20b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 549.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.76b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.00m
Net Debt = 5.57b USD (calculated: Debt 5.76b - CCE 189.0m)
Enterprise Value = 8.54b USD (2.97b + Debt 5.76b - CCE 189.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.86 (Ebit TTM 672.0m / Interest Expense TTM 235.0m)
EV/FCF = 55.82x (Enterprise Value 8.54b / FCF TTM 153.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.79% (FCF TTM 153.0m / Enterprise Value 8.54b)
FCF Margin = 1.77% (FCF TTM 153.0m / Revenue TTM 8.65b)
Net Margin = 3.17% (Net Income TTM 274.0m / Revenue TTM 8.65b)
Gross Margin = 16.94% ((Revenue TTM 8.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.10% (prev 14.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 8.54b / Total Assets 11.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.08% (Interest Expense 235.0m / Debt 5.76b)
Taxrate = 23.84% (139.0m / 583.0m)
NOPAT = 511.8m (EBIT 672.0m * (1 - 23.84%))
Current Ratio = 1.41 (Total Current Assets 2.96b / Total Current Liabilities 2.10b)
Debt / Equity = 1.77 (Debt 5.76b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.58 (Net Debt 5.57b / EBITDA 1.22b)
Debt / FCF = 36.41 (Net Debt 5.57b / FCF TTM 153.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.27b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.36% (Net Income 274.0m / Total Assets 11.7b)
RoE = 8.38% (Net Income TTM 274.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.27b)
RoCE = 7.93% (EBIT 672.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.27b + L.T.Debt 5.20b))
RoIC = 5.05% (NOPAT 511.8m / Invested Capital 10.1b)
WACC = 4.91% (E(2.97b)/V(8.73b) * Re(8.39%) + D(5.76b)/V(8.73b) * Rd(4.08%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -82.22 | Cagr: -1.72%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈153.0m ; Y1≈153.6m ; Y5≈162.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.53b - Net Debt 5.57b = -3.04b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -87.40 | EPS CAGR: -19.33% | SUE: 0.60 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.57 | Revenue CAGR: -4.51% | SUE: 1.65 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=-30.26% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=10
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=-2.79% | Revisions=-8% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.85 | Chg30d=-15.15% | Revisions=-54% | GrowthEPS=-52.9% | GrowthRev=-0.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.17 | Chg30d=-12.70% | Revisions=-54% | GrowthEPS=+38.1% | GrowthRev=+1.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -67%