GPK Stock Analysis: Graphic Packaging Holding | NYSE
Packaging & Containers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.600m USD | 12M Return: -52.1% | US3886891015 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 65.8M
EPS Trend: -90.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -92.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE: GPK) is a global producer of consumer packaging, primarily paperboard-based, serving brands in the food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer product categories. The company operates through two reportable segments: Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging, both of which supply consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies, while the Americas segment also sells cups, lids, and food containers to foodservice operators and quick-service restaurants. In addition to its paperboard products, GPK designs, manufactures, and installs specialized packaging machinery, providing an integrated packaging solution that pairs substrates with converting equipment. The company distributes its products through direct sales offices and third-party broker arrangements across the Americas, Europe, and Asia Pacific, and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Operating within the GICS Materials sector (Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials), GPK is classified as a U.S. mid-cap stock and has been publicly traded since 1992. Its business model is differentiated by vertical integration into proprietary packaging machinery, which helps lock in long-term supply relationships with CPG customers and is a notable contrast to pure converters that rely solely on third-party equipment.
- Americas Paperboard volume tracks CPG demand and pricing
- Recycled fiber and pulp costs pressure packaging margins
- Foodservice cup and lid demand rises with QSR traffic
| Net Income: 194.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.59% < 20% (prev 10.38%; Δ -0.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 793.0m > Net Income 194.0m |
| Net Debt (5.61b) to EBITDA (1.06b): 5.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.38 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (296.7m) vs 12m ago -1.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.46% > 18% (prev 21.35%; Δ -5.90% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.65% > 50% (prev 73.21%; Δ 0.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.02 > 6 (EBIT TTM 505.0m / Interest Expense TTM 250.0m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 3.01b - Total Current Liabilities 2.18b) / Total Assets 11.7b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 1.53b / Total Assets 11.7b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 505.0m / Avg Total Assets 11.7b) |
| D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 3.24b / Total Liabilities 8.42b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.59 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 951.0m/866.0m, Revenue 8.64b/8.63b) |
| GMI: 1.38 (GM 21.35% / 15.46%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 8.64b / 8.63b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 194.0m - CFO 793.0m) / TA 11.7b) |
| Beneish M = -2.62 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.35 with a total of 6,128,232 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.90%, over one month by -11.17%, over three months by -16.77% and over the past year by -52.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.80 (which is 6.6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Graphic Packaging Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GPK.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 12 | 43.1% |
P/E Trailing = 13.5077
P/E Forward = 8.3195
P/S = 0.3008
P/B = 0.8756
P/EG = 3.3305
Revenue TTM = 8.64b USD
EBIT TTM = 505.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.06b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.12b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 559.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.00m
Net Debt = 5.61b USD (calculated: Debt 5.82b - CCE 205.0m)
Enterprise Value = 8.21b USD (2.60b + Debt 5.82b - CCE 205.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.02 (Ebit TTM 505.0m / Interest Expense TTM 250.0m)
EV/FCF = 43.45x (Enterprise Value 8.21b / FCF TTM 189.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.30% (FCF TTM 189.0m / Enterprise Value 8.21b)
FCF Margin = 2.19% (FCF TTM 189.0m / Revenue TTM 8.64b)
Net Margin = 2.25% (Net Income TTM 194.0m / Revenue TTM 8.64b)
Gross Margin = 15.46% ((Revenue TTM 8.64b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.30b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.35% (prev 14.10%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 8.21b / Total Assets 11.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.30% (Interest Expense 250.0m / Debt 5.82b)
Taxrate = 22.35% (57.0m / 255.0m)
NOPAT = 392.1m (EBIT 505.0m * (1 - 22.35%))
Current Ratio = 1.38 (Total Current Assets 3.01b / Total Current Liabilities 2.18b)
Debt / Equity = 1.80 (Debt 5.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.24b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.28 (Net Debt 5.61b / EBITDA 1.06b)
Debt / FCF = 29.70 (Net Debt 5.61b / FCF TTM 189.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.65% (Net Income 194.0m / Total Assets 11.7b)
RoE = 5.92% (Net Income TTM 194.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.28b)
RoCE = 6.02% (EBIT 505.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.28b + L.T.Debt 5.12b))
RoIC = 3.99% (NOPAT 392.1m / Invested Capital 9.83b)
WACC = 4.87% (E(2.60b)/V(8.42b) * Re(8.30%) + D(5.82b)/V(8.42b) * Rd(4.30%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.09 | Cagr: -1.80%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈189.0m ; Y1≈189.8m ; Y5≈201.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.13b - Net Debt 5.61b = -2.49b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -90.43 | EPS CAGR: -26.49% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -92.08 | Revenue CAGR: -3.83% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=-2.99% | Revisions=-77% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=-1.35% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-60.9% | GrowthRev=+0.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.07 | Chg30d=-4.06% | Revisions=-15% | GrowthEPS=+52.4% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -46% (up=5, down=16)