GRBK Stock Analysis: Green Brick | NYSE
Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.177m USD | 12M Return: 8.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 19.3M
EPS Trend: 62.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 83.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Green Brick Partners (NYSE: GRBK) is a diversified homebuilding and land development company headquartered in Plano, Texas. It operates through seven subsidiary homebuilders across Texas, Georgia, and Florida, with a strong presence in Dallas-Fort Worth, where it ranks as the third-largest homebuilder. The company maintains controlling or majority interests in builders such as CB JENI Homes, Normandy Homes, Southgate Homes, Trophy Signature Homes, Centre Living Homes, The Providence Group (Atlanta), and GHO Homes (Port St. Lucie), and complements its homebuilding operations with related financial services platforms including Green Brick Title, Green Brick Mortgage, and Green Brick Insurance.
The company manages the full homebuilding value chain, from land acquisition and entitlements through design, construction, marketing, and sales of residential neighborhoods and master-planned communities. As a Consumer Discretionary stock within the Homebuilding sub-industry, Green Brick is part of a sector that is highly cyclical and sensitive to interest rates, mortgage availability, and regional population growth. The homebuilding industry typically benefits from ancillary services like mortgage and title operations, which can help capture additional revenue from each home sale and improve the customer experience.
- Mortgage rate declines boost Sun Belt homebuilder order growth
- Texas and Atlanta lot supply tightens, pressuring land costs
- Captive mortgage and title capture rate expands per closing
| Net Income: 299.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.80 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 104.7% < 20% (prev 89.14%; Δ 15.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 200.8m > Net Income 299.1m |
| Net Debt (113.6m) to EBITDA (421.1m): 0.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 9.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.5m) vs 12m ago -2.20% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.82% > 18% (prev 33.03%; Δ -2.21% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 83.67% > 50% (prev 94.54%; Δ -10.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.83 (Total Current Assets 2.36b - Total Current Liabilities 261.7m) / Total Assets 2.53b |
| B: 0.64 (Retained Earnings 1.62b / Total Assets 2.53b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 416.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.40b) |
| D: 3.53 (Book Value of Equity 1.92b / Total Liabilities 542.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 12.42 = AAA |
| DSRI: 2.62 (Receivables 30.8m/12.6m, Revenue 2.01b/2.15b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 33.03% / 30.82%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 2.01b / 2.15b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 299.1m - CFO 200.8m) / TA 2.53b) |
| Beneish M = -1.64 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 72.31 with a total of 124,955 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.34%, over one month by +0.35%, over three months by +7.21% and over the past year by +8.57%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 66.90 (which is 7.5% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
Green Brick has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold GRBK.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 62 | -14.3% |
P/E Trailing = 10.8454
P/E Forward = 10.627
P/S = 1.5758
P/B = 1.7002
P/EG = 1.1506
Revenue TTM = 2.01b USD
EBIT TTM = 416.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 421.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 251.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.59m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 290.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.24m
Net Debt = 113.6m USD (calculated: Debt 290.6m - CCE 177.0m)
Enterprise Value = 3.29b USD (3.18b + Debt 290.6m - CCE 177.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 416.3m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 16.84x (Enterprise Value 3.29b / FCF TTM 195.5m)
FCF Yield = 5.94% (FCF TTM 195.5m / Enterprise Value 3.29b)
FCF Margin = 9.73% (FCF TTM 195.5m / Revenue TTM 2.01b)
Net Margin = 14.90% (Net Income TTM 299.1m / Revenue TTM 2.01b)
Gross Margin = 30.82% ((Revenue TTM 2.01b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.39b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.99% (prev 32.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.30 (Enterprise Value 3.29b / Total Assets 2.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 290.6m)
Taxrate = 21.83% (90.9m / 416.3m)
NOPAT = 325.4m (EBIT 416.3m * (1 - 21.83%))
Current Ratio = 9.03 (Total Current Assets 2.36b / Total Current Liabilities 261.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 290.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.27 (Net Debt 113.6m / EBITDA 421.1m)
Debt / FCF = 0.58 (Net Debt 113.6m / FCF TTM 195.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.83b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.46% (Net Income 299.1m / Total Assets 2.53b)
RoE = 16.38% (Net Income TTM 299.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.83b)
RoCE = 20.04% (EBIT 416.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.83b + L.T.Debt 251.4m))
RoIC = 15.03% (NOPAT 325.4m / Invested Capital 2.17b)
WACC = 8.07% (E(3.18b)/V(3.47b) * Re(8.81%) + D(290.6m)/V(3.47b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.93 | Cagr: -2.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈153.1m ; Y1≈175.5m ; Y5≈258.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 87.44 (EV 3.89b - Net Debt 113.6m = Equity 3.77b / Shares 43.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 62.31 | EPS CAGR: 9.55% | SUE: 0.86 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.72 | Revenue CAGR: 7.96% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.39 | Chg30d=-3.14% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+10.85% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.75 | Chg30d=+3.05% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-18.7% | GrowthRev=-9.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.24 | Chg30d=-2.81% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+8.4% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +18% (up=5, down=3)