HCA Stock Analysis: HCA Healthcare | NYSE

Medical Care Facilities | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 97.192m USD | 12M Return: 3.3% | US40412C1018 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Hospitals, Outpatient Surgery, Emergency Medicine, Rehabilitation
Total Rating 52
Safety 58
Buy Signal -0.66
Medical Care Facilities
Industry Rotation: +2.1
Market Cap: 97.2B
Avg Turnover: 599M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility28.2%
VaR 5th Pctl4.81%
VaR vs Median3.64%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.12
Rel. Str. IBD41.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group28.9
Character TTM
Beta0.336
Beta Downside0.112
Hurst Exponent0.511
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD33.62%
CAGR/Max DD0.66
CAGR/Mean DD2.17
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of HCA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 4.57, "2021-12": 4.42, "2022-03": 4.12, "2022-06": 4.21, "2022-09": 3.93, "2022-12": 4.64, "2023-03": 4.93, "2023-06": 4.29, "2023-09": 3.91, "2023-12": 5.9, "2024-03": 5.36, "2024-06": 5.5, "2024-09": 4.9, "2024-12": 6.22, "2025-03": 6.45, "2025-06": 6.84, "2025-09": 6.96, "2025-12": 8.01, "2026-03": 7.15, "2026-06": 7.59,
EPS CAGR: 21.10%
EPS Trend: 99.4%
Last SUE: 0.05
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of HCA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 15276, 2021-12: 15064, 2022-03: 14945, 2022-06: 14820, 2022-09: 14971, 2022-12: 15497, 2023-03: 15591, 2023-06: 15861, 2023-09: 16213, 2023-12: 17303, 2024-03: 17339, 2024-06: 17492, 2024-09: 17487, 2024-12: 18285, 2025-03: 18321, 2025-06: 18605, 2025-09: 19161, 2025-12: 19513, 2026-03: 19109, 2026-06: 20230,
Rev. CAGR: 7.58%
Rev. Trend: 99.4%
Last SUE: 1.91
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Fakeout
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +6.0% 23
Feb -1.4% 9
Mar +1.3% 8
Apr -1.5% 11
May -2.2% 21
Jun -0.7% 19
Jul +1.0% 5
Aug -1.2% 18
Sep -1.4% 17
Oct -0.9% 2
Nov +4.6% 27
Dec +3.0% 26

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: HCA HCA Healthcare

HCA Healthcare, Inc. is a major US-based operator of healthcare facilities, offering services through a broad network that includes hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs), freestanding emergency rooms, urgent care clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, oncology and radiation therapy centers, rehabilitation facilities, physician practices, and home health and hospice agencies. Its general and acute care hospitals provide both inpatient services-such as intensive care, cardiac care, and emergency services-and outpatient services such as surgery, laboratory work, radiology, and physical therapy. The company was founded in 1968, is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, and trades on the NYSE under the ticker HCA.

As one of the largest for-profit hospital operators in the United States, HCA operates within the Health Care Facilities sub-industry, a segment whose business model relies on patient service revenue reimbursed primarily through private insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid. Nashville, where HCA is headquartered, is widely regarded as a hub of the US healthcare industry, hosting numerous major hospital systems, managed care organizations, and healthcare service companies.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Same-facility admissions growth drives hospital revenue
  • Labor cost inflation pressures operating margins
  • Commercial payer reimbursement rates lift profitability
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 6.84b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.34 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -5.37% < 20% (prev -0.52%; Δ -4.85% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 11.1b > Net Income 6.84b
Net Debt (49.6b) to EBITDA (15.8b): 3.13 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.78 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (222.8m) vs 12m ago -7.89% < -2%
Gross Margin: 28.36% > 18% (prev 40.89%; Δ -12.54% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 129.9% > 50% (prev 122.1%; Δ 7.84% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.25 > 6 (EBIT TTM 12.2b / Interest Expense TTM 2.32b)
Altman Z'' 0.46
A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 15.0b - Total Current Liabilities 19.1b) / Total Assets 60.5b
B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -6.25b / Total Assets 60.5b)
C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 12.2b / Avg Total Assets 60.0b)
D: -0.10 (Book Value of Equity -6.58b / Total Liabilities 63.7b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.46 = B
Beneish M -2.52
DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 12.3b/10.5b, Revenue 78.0b/72.7b)
GMI: 1.44 (GM 40.89% / 28.36%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.20)
SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 78.0b / 72.7b)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 6.84b - CFO 11.1b) / TA 60.5b)
Beneish M = -2.52 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of HCA shares?

As of September 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 431.63 with a total of 881,872 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.48%, over one month by +4.34%, over three months by +10.22% and over the past year by +3.25%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 410.10 (which is 5% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is HCA a buy, sell or hold?

HCA Healthcare has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.04. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HCA.

  • StrongBuy: 13
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 9
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the HCA price?
Analysts Target Price 452.3 4.8%
HCA Healthcare (HCA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 24 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 97.2b (97.2b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.285
P/E Forward = 13.4771
P/S = 1.2159
P/B = 291.3383
P/EG = 1.3029
Revenue TTM = 78.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 12.2b USD
EBITDA TTM = 15.8b USD
Long Term Debt = 43.5b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.10b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 50.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.83b
Net Debt = 49.6b USD (calculated: Debt 50.6b - CCE 1.01b)
Enterprise Value = 147b USD (97.2b + Debt 50.6b - CCE 1.01b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.25 (Ebit TTM 12.2b / Interest Expense TTM 2.32b)
EV/FCF = 24.48x (Enterprise Value 147b / FCF TTM 6.00b)
FCF Yield = 4.09% (FCF TTM 6.00b / Enterprise Value 147b)
FCF Margin = 7.69% (FCF TTM 6.00b / Revenue TTM 78.0b)
Net Margin = 8.77% (Net Income TTM 6.84b / Revenue TTM 78.0b)
Gross Margin = 28.36% ((Revenue TTM 78.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 55.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.16% (prev 14.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.43 (Enterprise Value 147b / Total Assets 60.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.58% (Interest Expense 2.32b / Debt 50.6b)
Taxrate = 20.44% (2.02b / 9.87b)
NOPAT = 9.67b (EBIT 12.2b * (1 - 20.44%))
Current Ratio = 0.78 (Total Current Assets 15.0b / Total Current Liabilities 19.1b)
 Debt / Equity = -7.70 (negative equity) (Debt 50.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -6.58b)
 Debt / EBITDA = 3.13 (Net Debt 49.6b / EBITDA 15.8b)
Debt / FCF = 8.27 (Net Debt 49.6b / FCF TTM 6.00b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -4.45b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.39% (Net Income 6.84b / Total Assets 60.5b)
 RoE = -153.6% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 6.84b / Total Stockholder Equity -4.45b)
 RoCE = 31.18% (EBIT 12.2b / Capital Employed (Equity -4.45b + L.T.Debt 43.5b))
RoIC = 19.96% (NOPAT 9.67b / Invested Capital 48.5b)
WACC = 5.95% (E(97.2b)/V(148b) * Re(7.16%) + D(50.6b)/V(148b) * Rd(4.58%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.28 | Cagr: -7.88%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈6.51b ; Y1≈5.71b ; Y5≈4.62b
[DCF] Fair Price = 110.4 (EV 74.1b - Net Debt 49.6b = Equity 24.5b / Shares 221.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.42 | EPS CAGR: 21.10% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.43 | Revenue CAGR: 7.58% | SUE: 1.91 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=6.69 | Chg30d=-1.35% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=29.49 | Chg30d=-0.11% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+4.5% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=32.02 | Chg30d=-0.38% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+8.6% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -58% (up=1, down=8)