HCI Stock Analysis: HCI | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.313m USD | 12M Return: -0.3% | US40416E1038 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 30.3M
EPS Trend: 89.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
HCI Group, Inc. is a U.S.-based holding company primarily engaged in the property and casualty insurance business, with a particular focus on homeowners insurance. The company operates through four segments: Insurance Operations, Exzeo (insurance technology and operations solutions), Reciprocal Exchange Operations, and Real Estate.
Beyond underwriting coverage, HCI Group provides a suite of software platforms used by P&C carriers and agents, including SAM (policy management automation), Harmony (policy administration), ClaimColony (claims management), and AtlasViewer (mapping and visualization). It also invests in commercial real estate for its own portfolio.
The company was incorporated in 2006, is headquartered in Tampa, Florida, and was formerly known as Homeowners Choice, Inc. before rebranding in May 2013. As a property and casualty insurer, the company generates revenue primarily through underwriting premiums and assumes risk on covered losses, while its technology segment represents an InsurTech extension of the core insurance business model.
- Hurricane catastrophe losses pressure combined ratio
- Florida insurance regulation reshapes competitive landscape
- Reinsurance costs rise amid elevated catastrophe exposure
| Net Income: 310.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -38.51% < 20% (prev 45.56%; Δ -84.08% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 412.3m > Net Income 310.4m |
| Net Debt (-874.2m) to EBITDA (473.9m): -1.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.72 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (12.9m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 69.92% > 18% (prev 41.75%; Δ 28.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.08% > 50% (prev 32.96%; Δ 5.11% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 115.2 > 6 (EBIT TTM 465.0m / Interest Expense TTM 4.03m) |
| A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 954.3m - Total Current Liabilities 1.32b) / Total Assets 2.65b |
| B: 0.28 (Retained Earnings 748.4m / Total Assets 2.65b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 465.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.50b) |
| D: 0.73 (Book Value of Equity 1.08b / Total Liabilities 1.47b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.03 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.12 (Receivables 77.6m/513.2m, Revenue 952.2m/775.7m) |
| GMI: 0.60 (GM 41.75% / 69.92%) |
| AQI: 3.04 (AQ_t 0.63 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.23 (Revenue 952.2m / 775.7m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 310.4m - CFO 412.3m) / TA 2.65b) |
| Beneish M = -2.75 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 192.35 with a total of 175,910 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.04%, over one month by +3.36%, over three months by +7.53% and over the past year by -0.26%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 182.10 (which is 5.3% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
HCI has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HCI.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 241.7 | 25.6% |
P/E Trailing = 8.0134
P/E Forward = 8.9047
P/S = 2.4288
P/B = 2.0286
P/EG = 0.9739
Revenue TTM = 952.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 465.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 473.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 31.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 36.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 68.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 997k
Net Debt = -874.2m USD (calculated: Debt 68.5m - CCE 942.7m)
Enterprise Value = 1.44b USD (2.31b + Debt 68.5m - CCE 942.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 115.2 (Ebit TTM 465.0m / Interest Expense TTM 4.03m)
EV/FCF = 7.65x (Enterprise Value 1.44b / FCF TTM 188.0m)
FCF Yield = 13.07% (FCF TTM 188.0m / Enterprise Value 1.44b)
FCF Margin = 19.74% (FCF TTM 188.0m / Revenue TTM 952.2m)
Net Margin = 32.60% (Net Income TTM 310.4m / Revenue TTM 952.2m)
Gross Margin = 69.92% ((Revenue TTM 952.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 286.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.18% (prev 72.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.54 (Enterprise Value 1.44b / Total Assets 2.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.89% (Interest Expense 4.03m / Debt 68.5m)
Taxrate = 25.41% (117.1m / 461.0m)
NOPAT = 346.8m (EBIT 465.0m * (1 - 25.41%))
Current Ratio = 0.70 (Total Current Assets 954.3m / Total Current Liabilities 1.36b)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 68.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.08b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.84 (Net Debt -874.2m / EBITDA 473.9m)
Debt / FCF = -4.65 (Net Debt -874.2m / FCF TTM 188.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.41% (Net Income 310.4m / Total Assets 2.65b)
RoE = 30.79% (Net Income TTM 310.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.01b)
RoCE = 44.74% (EBIT 465.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.01b + L.T.Debt 31.5m))
RoIC = 13.24% (NOPAT 346.8m / Invested Capital 2.62b)
WACC = 6.28% (E(2.31b)/V(2.38b) * Re(6.34%) + D(68.5m)/V(2.38b) * Rd(5.89%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 41.17 | Cagr: 0.93%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.40% ; FCFF base≈182.6m ; Y1≈195.0m ; Y5≈233.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 358.8 (EV 3.59b - Net Debt -874.2m = Equity 4.46b / Shares 12.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 7.68% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 89.89 | EPS CAGR: 66.31% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.92 | Revenue CAGR: 23.49% | SUE: 0.63 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.06 | Chg30d=+28.08% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=20.70 | Chg30d=+6.61% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-8.9% | GrowthRev=+10.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=19.70 | Chg30d=+0.60% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-4.8% | GrowthRev=+6.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)