HCI Stock Analysis: HCI | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.331m USD | 12M Return: 30.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 30.6M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
HCI Group, Inc. is a U.S.-based property and casualty insurance company headquartered in Tampa, Florida, operating through four reportable segments: Insurance Operations, Exzeo, Reciprocal Exchange Operations, and Real Estate. Its core business focuses on homeowners property and casualty insurance products, complemented by claim adjusting and processing services delivered directly and through technology platforms.
A key differentiator is HCIs insurance technology arm, branded as Exzeo, which offers turnkey software and operations solutions to other property and casualty carriers and agents. The platform includes SAMS (a policy management web-based system), Harmony (policy administration), ClaimColony (claims management), and AtlasViewer (mapping and data visualization). The company also participates in reciprocal insurance exchanges, a structure in which policyholders act as both customers and members of the insuring entity, and it invests in commercial real estate. The company was incorporated in 2006 and was formerly known as Homeowners Choice, Inc. before rebranding in May 2013.
- Florida hurricane exposure drives combined ratio volatility
- Reinsurance costs surge amid elevated catastrophe activity
- Share repurchases and dividends return capital to shareholders
| Net Income: 302.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.90 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.71% < 20% (prev 52.99%; Δ -43.28% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 432.2m > Net Income 302.7m |
| Net Debt (-985.9m) to EBITDA (462.5m): -2.13 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (12.9m) vs 12m ago 1.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.54% > 18% (prev 39.66%; Δ 26.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 37.72% > 50% (prev 32.95%; Δ 4.77% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 67.37 > 6 (EBIT TTM 451.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.69m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 1.41b - Total Current Liabilities 1.32b) / Total Assets 2.61b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 679.7m / Total Assets 2.61b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 451.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.46b) |
| D: 0.76 (Book Value of Equity 1.09b / Total Liabilities 1.43b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.11 = A |
| DSRI: 0.46 (Receivables 331.8m/590.1m, Revenue 927.5m/760.1m) |
| GMI: 0.60 (GM 39.66% / 66.54%) |
| AQI: 2.79 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.22 (Revenue 927.5m / 760.1m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 302.7m - CFO 432.2m) / TA 2.61b) |
| Beneish M = -2.62 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 180.78 with a total of 188,897 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.20%, over one month by +14.69%, over three months by +16.70% and over the past year by +30.44%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 174.30 (which is 3.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
HCI has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.80. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HCI.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 245 | 35.5% |
P/E Trailing = 8.007
P/E Forward = 10.3306
P/S = 2.5139
P/B = 2.0939
P/EG = 0.9739
Revenue TTM = 927.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 451.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 462.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 31.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 36.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 68.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 997k
Net Debt = -985.9m USD (calculated: Debt 68.7m - CCE 1.05b)
Enterprise Value = 1.35b USD (2.33b + Debt 68.7m - CCE 1.05b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 67.37 (Ebit TTM 451.1m / Interest Expense TTM 6.69m)
EV/FCF = 3.79x (Enterprise Value 1.35b / FCF TTM 355.4m)
FCF Yield = 26.42% (FCF TTM 355.4m / Enterprise Value 1.35b)
FCF Margin = 38.32% (FCF TTM 355.4m / Revenue TTM 927.5m)
Net Margin = 32.64% (Net Income TTM 302.7m / Revenue TTM 927.5m)
Gross Margin = 66.54% ((Revenue TTM 927.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 310.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 72.99% (prev 78.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.52 (Enterprise Value 1.35b / Total Assets 2.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.75% (Interest Expense 6.69m / Debt 68.7m)
Taxrate = 25.47% (113.2m / 444.4m)
NOPAT = 336.2m (EBIT 451.1m * (1 - 25.47%))
Current Ratio = 1.04 (Total Current Assets 1.41b / Total Current Liabilities 1.35b)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 68.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.13 (Net Debt -985.9m / EBITDA 462.5m)
Debt / FCF = -2.77 (Net Debt -985.9m / FCF TTM 355.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 927.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.31% (Net Income 302.7m / Total Assets 2.61b)
RoE = 32.64% (Net Income TTM 302.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 927.6m)
RoCE = 47.02% (EBIT 451.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 927.6m + L.T.Debt 31.7m))
RoIC = 26.27% (NOPAT 336.2m / Invested Capital 1.28b)
WACC = 7.39% (E(2.33b)/V(2.40b) * Re(7.39%) + D(68.7m)/V(2.40b) * Rd(9.75%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 67.71 | Cagr: 5.37%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈275.2m ; Y1≈315.5m ; Y5≈464.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 624.6 (EV 6.99b - Net Debt -985.9m = Equity 7.97b / Shares 12.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.46 | Revenue CAGR: 25.34% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=5.24 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.63 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=18.27 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-19.6% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=18.48 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1.1% | GrowthRev=+4.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)