(HD) The Home Depot - Ratings and Ratios
Building,Decor,Garden,Tools,Installation
HD EPS (Earnings per Share)
HD Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 32.6% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.34 |
| Alpha Jensen | -20.70 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.439 |
| Beta | 1.046 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 21.79% |
| Mean DD | 8.03% |
Description: HD The Home Depot September 24, 2025
The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD) is the largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, offering a broad assortment of building materials, décor, lawn-and-garden items, and a suite of professional installation services ranging from flooring to HVAC systems. Its customer base spans DIY homeowners, professional remodelers, general contractors, and specialty tradespeople, reflecting a diversified revenue mix across both consumer and professional segments.
Beyond its extensive network of over 2,300 physical stores, Home Depot operates a robust omni-channel platform that includes homedepot.com, homedepot.ca, homedepot.com.mx, and a portfolio of niche e-commerce sites (e.g., blinds.com, thecompanystore.com). This digital footprint supports both direct-to-consumer sales and B2B fulfillment through sites such as hdsupply.com and srsdistribution.com, enabling cross-selling of maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products to professional clients.
Key performance indicators as of the most recent fiscal quarter (Q2 2024) show a 4.2 % year-over-year increase in comparable sales, driven largely by a 7 % rise in professional-customer spend and a 3 % lift in online sales. The company’s gross margin expanded to 34.1 % (up from 33.6 % a year earlier), reflecting improved product mix and cost-efficiency initiatives in its supply chain.
Home Depot’s earnings outlook is closely tied to macro-economic drivers such as residential construction activity, housing-starts trends, and consumer confidence in discretionary spending. The U.S. housing-starts index has been trending upward (+1.8 % YoY in Q2 2024), which historically correlates with a 0.4-0.6 % lift in Home Depot’s same-store sales per percentage point increase in starts. Conversely, a sustained rise in mortgage rates could dampen DIY demand, adding downside risk.
From a sector perspective, Home Depot benefits from the “renovation wave” fueled by an aging U.S. housing stock (average home age ≈ 40 years) and a generational shift as Millennials become primary homeowners. This structural demand driver supports long-term revenue visibility beyond short-term cyclical fluctuations.
For analysts seeking a deeper, data-driven valuation framework, a quick look at Home Depot’s forward-looking cash-flow metrics and peer-adjusted discount rates on ValueRay can surface hidden upside opportunities.
HD Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 369,398m |
| Sub-Industry | Home Improvement Retail |
| IPO / Inception | 1981-09-22 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -18.7% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.18 of 5 |
HD Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.44% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.72% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 10.67% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 61.7% |
HD Growth Ratios
| CAGR | 9.07% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.42 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 1.13 |
| Current Volume | 1845.2k |
| Average Volume | 2767.3k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (14.63b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 9.90b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -3.10pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 2.75% (prev 2.73%; Δ 0.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 (>3.0%) and CFO 17.87b > Net Income 14.63b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (58.52b) to EBITDA (25.29b) ratio: 2.31 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.15 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (994.0m) change vs 12m ago 0.20% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 33.35% (prev 33.60%; Δ -0.25pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 167.7% (prev 157.0%; Δ 10.61pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 8.84 (EBITDA TTM 25.29b / Interest Expense TTM 2.45b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.89
| (A) 0.05 = (Total Current Assets 35.39b - Total Current Liabilities 30.85b) / Total Assets 100.05b |
| (B) 0.93 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 92.94b / Total Assets 100.05b |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: 0.93 — check mapping/units |
| (C) 0.22 = EBIT TTM 21.68b / Avg Total Assets 98.45b |
| (D) 1.03 = Book Value of Equity 92.20b / Total Liabilities 89.38b |
| Total Rating: 5.89 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 69.28
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt = 0.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.33% = 1.66 |
| 3. FCF Margin 8.62% = 2.16 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 5.75 = -2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.31 = -0.61 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 18.41)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 188.5% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 50.23% = 3.77 |
| 9. EPS Trend -3.97% = -0.20 |
What is the price of HD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.31%, over one month by -1.35%, over three months by -2.88% and over the past year by -6.17%.
Is The Home Depot a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of HD is around 351.83 USD . This means that HD is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -5.99%.
Is HD a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 21
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 437.6 | 16.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 437.6 | 16.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 392.5 | 4.9% |
HD Fundamental Data Overview November 09, 2025
P/E Trailing = 25.2456
P/E Forward = 24.5098
P/S = 2.238
P/B = 36.8671
P/EG = 3.9006
Beta = 1.046
Revenue TTM = 165.05b USD
EBIT TTM = 21.68b USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.29b USD
Long Term Debt = 45.92b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.74b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 61.32b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 58.52b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 427.91b USD (369.40b + Debt 61.32b - CCE 2.80b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.84 (Ebit TTM 21.68b / Interest Expense TTM 2.45b)
FCF Yield = 3.33% (FCF TTM 14.23b / Enterprise Value 427.91b)
FCF Margin = 8.62% (FCF TTM 14.23b / Revenue TTM 165.05b)
Net Margin = 8.86% (Net Income TTM 14.63b / Revenue TTM 165.05b)
Gross Margin = 33.35% ((Revenue TTM 165.05b - Cost of Revenue TTM 110.01b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 33.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.28 (Enterprise Value 427.91b / Total Assets 100.05b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.94% (Interest Expense 575.0m / Debt 61.32b)
Taxrate = 24.21% (1.45b / 6.00b)
NOPAT = 16.43b (EBIT 21.68b * (1 - 24.21%))
Current Ratio = 1.15 (Total Current Assets 35.39b / Total Current Liabilities 30.85b)
Debt / Equity = 5.75 (Debt 61.32b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.66b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.31 (Net Debt 58.52b / EBITDA 25.29b)
Debt / FCF = 4.11 (Net Debt 58.52b / FCF TTM 14.23b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.62% (Net Income 14.63b / Total Assets 100.05b)
RoE = 188.5% (Net Income TTM 14.63b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.76b)
RoCE = 40.39% (EBIT 21.68b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.76b + L.T.Debt 45.92b))
RoIC = 26.98% (NOPAT 16.43b / Invested Capital 60.90b)
WACC = 8.57% (E(369.40b)/V(430.72b) * Re(9.87%) + D(61.32b)/V(430.72b) * Rd(0.94%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.25%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.73% ; FCFE base≈15.25b ; Y1≈15.12b ; Y5≈15.76b
Fair Price DCF = 206.7 (DCF Value 205.75b / Shares Outstanding 995.4m; 5y FCF grow -1.62% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -3.97 | EPS CAGR: 3.66% | SUE: -0.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 50.23 | Revenue CAGR: 5.70% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for HD Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle