(HGV) Hilton Grand Vacations - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US43283X1054
Timeshare Points, Villas, Financing, Resort Management
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 55.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.71% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.28 |
| Alpha | -11.03 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.07 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.554 |
| Beta | 1.367 |
| Beta Downside | 1.134 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.67% |
| Mean DD | 16.63% |
| Median DD | 16.64% |
Description: HGV Hilton Grand Vacations November 07, 2025
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates timeshare resorts and ancillary services under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand across the United States and Europe. The business is split into two segments: (1) Real Estate Sales and Financing, which markets and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs), sources them via fee-for-service agreements, and provides consumer financing; and (2) Resort Operations and Club Management, which runs the clubs, handles exchange and reservation services, rents inventory generated by ownership exchanges, and delivers on-site amenities such as food-and-beverage, retail, and spa.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue was about $1.6 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 30%; owned-resort occupancy averaged roughly 85% in 2023, outpacing the broader U.S. hotel RevPAR growth of ~4% YoY. The timeshare market is benefiting from rising discretionary travel spend and a 5% YoY increase in new VOI sales, while higher interest rates are pressuring consumer financing volumes-a sector driver worth monitoring.
For a deeper dive into HGV’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you might find the data visualizations on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income (88.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 299.9m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.13pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 95.92% (prev 104.4%; Δ -8.47pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 238.0m > Net Income 88.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (7.07b) to EBITDA (708.0m) ratio: 9.98 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.82 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (95.5m) change vs 12m ago -6.37% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 40.42% (prev 65.18%; Δ -24.77pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 43.78% (prev 42.28%; Δ 1.50pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.42 (EBITDA TTM 708.0m / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.99
| (A) 0.41 = (Total Current Assets 6.50b - Total Current Liabilities 1.70b) / Total Assets 11.68b |
| (B) 0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 88.0m / Total Assets 11.68b |
| (C) 0.04 = EBIT TTM 445.0m / Avg Total Assets 11.42b |
| (D) 0.01 = Book Value of Equity 77.0m / Total Liabilities 10.14b |
| Total Rating: 2.99 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 50.86
| 1. Piotroski 2.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.05% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.26% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 5.26 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 9.98 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.25)% |
| 7. RoE 5.67% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 87.85% |
| 9. EPS Trend -42.24% |
What is the price of HGV shares?
As of December 14, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 43.99 with a total of 828,755 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.85%, over one month by +8.91%, over three months by -2.70% and over the past year by +8.46%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.85%, over one month by +8.91%, over three months by -2.70% and over the past year by +8.46%.
Is HGV a buy, sell or hold?
Hilton Grand Vacations has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.78.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold HGV.
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HGV price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 51.7 | 17.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 51.7 | 17.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 44.2 | 0.5% |
HGV Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
Market Cap USD = 3.66b (3.66b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 75.5636
P/E Forward = 11.4416
P/S = 0.8193
P/B = 2.6163
Beta = 1.511
Revenue TTM = 5.00b USD
EBIT TTM = 445.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 708.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.19b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 27.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.07b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.73b USD (3.66b + Debt 7.28b - CCE 215.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.42 (Ebit TTM 445.0m / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.05% (FCF TTM 113.0m / Enterprise Value 10.73b)
FCF Margin = 2.26% (FCF TTM 113.0m / Revenue TTM 5.00b)
Net Margin = 1.76% (Net Income TTM 88.0m / Revenue TTM 5.00b)
Gross Margin = 40.42% ((Revenue TTM 5.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.23% (prev 24.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 10.73b / Total Assets 11.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 79.0m / Debt 7.28b)
Taxrate = -33.33% (negative due to tax credits) (-15.0m / 45.0m)
NOPAT = 593.3m (EBIT 445.0m * (1 - -33.33%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 3.82 (Total Current Assets 6.50b / Total Current Liabilities 1.70b)
Debt / Equity = 5.26 (Debt 7.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.98 (Net Debt 7.07b / EBITDA 708.0m)
Debt / FCF = 62.54 (Net Debt 7.07b / FCF TTM 113.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.55b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.75% (Net Income 88.0m / Total Assets 11.68b)
RoE = 5.67% (Net Income TTM 88.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.55b)
RoCE = 5.09% (EBIT 445.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.55b + L.T.Debt 7.19b))
RoIC = 6.91% (NOPAT 593.3m / Invested Capital 8.58b)
WACC = 4.66% (E(3.66b)/V(10.94b) * Re(11.05%) + D(7.28b)/V(10.94b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(-0.33)))
Discount Rate = 11.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.82%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 61.69% ; FCFE base≈116.6m ; Y1≈87.3m ; Y5≈52.0m
Fair Price DCF = 7.47 (DCF Value 638.7m / Shares Outstanding 85.5m; 5y FCF grow -29.71% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -42.24 | EPS CAGR: -0.87% | SUE: -1.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.85 | Revenue CAGR: 12.42% | SUE: -1.20 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.68 | Chg30d=-0.019 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.58 | Chg30d=+0.288 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+88.8% | Growth Revenue=+8.7%
P/E Trailing = 75.5636
P/E Forward = 11.4416
P/S = 0.8193
P/B = 2.6163
Beta = 1.511
Revenue TTM = 5.00b USD
EBIT TTM = 445.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 708.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.19b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 27.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.07b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.73b USD (3.66b + Debt 7.28b - CCE 215.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.42 (Ebit TTM 445.0m / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.05% (FCF TTM 113.0m / Enterprise Value 10.73b)
FCF Margin = 2.26% (FCF TTM 113.0m / Revenue TTM 5.00b)
Net Margin = 1.76% (Net Income TTM 88.0m / Revenue TTM 5.00b)
Gross Margin = 40.42% ((Revenue TTM 5.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.23% (prev 24.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 10.73b / Total Assets 11.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 79.0m / Debt 7.28b)
Taxrate = -33.33% (negative due to tax credits) (-15.0m / 45.0m)
NOPAT = 593.3m (EBIT 445.0m * (1 - -33.33%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 3.82 (Total Current Assets 6.50b / Total Current Liabilities 1.70b)
Debt / Equity = 5.26 (Debt 7.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.98 (Net Debt 7.07b / EBITDA 708.0m)
Debt / FCF = 62.54 (Net Debt 7.07b / FCF TTM 113.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.55b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.75% (Net Income 88.0m / Total Assets 11.68b)
RoE = 5.67% (Net Income TTM 88.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.55b)
RoCE = 5.09% (EBIT 445.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.55b + L.T.Debt 7.19b))
RoIC = 6.91% (NOPAT 593.3m / Invested Capital 8.58b)
WACC = 4.66% (E(3.66b)/V(10.94b) * Re(11.05%) + D(7.28b)/V(10.94b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(-0.33)))
Discount Rate = 11.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.82%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 61.69% ; FCFE base≈116.6m ; Y1≈87.3m ; Y5≈52.0m
Fair Price DCF = 7.47 (DCF Value 638.7m / Shares Outstanding 85.5m; 5y FCF grow -29.71% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -42.24 | EPS CAGR: -0.87% | SUE: -1.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.85 | Revenue CAGR: 12.42% | SUE: -1.20 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.68 | Chg30d=-0.019 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.58 | Chg30d=+0.288 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+88.8% | Growth Revenue=+8.7%
Additional Sources for HGV Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle