HGV Stock Analysis: Hilton Grand Vacations | NYSE
Resorts & Casinos | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.880m USD | 12M Return: 7.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 69.0M
EPS Trend: -71.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 94.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV), spun off from Hilton Worldwide in January 2017, is a timeshare and vacation ownership operator that develops, markets, sells, manages, and operates resorts and timeshare plans under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand across the United States, Japan, and Europe. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Orlando, Florida, the company is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry.
HGV operates through two reporting segments. The Real Estate Sales and Financing segment markets and sells Vacation Ownership Interests (VOIs), sources additional inventory through fee-for-service agreements, and provides consumer financing and loan servicing to buyers. The Resort Operations and Club Management segment runs the companys clubs-offering exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services-rents out inventory freed up by ownership exchanges, and operates ancillary amenities such as food and beverage, retail, and spa outlets at its timeshare properties.
As a vacation ownership business, HGV relies on a recurring-revenue model that combines upfront VOI sales with ongoing management fees, exchange/rental income, and interest income from financed sales. The structure ties near-term results to tour-to-sale conversion and credit performance, while the resort operations segment produces relatively stable fee-based cash flows from a growing base of owners.
- Tour volume and VOI pricing drive Real Estate segment revenue
- Rising defaults on consumer loans pressure Financing segment margins
- Travel demand recovery boosts resort rental and ancillary fee income
| Net Income: 199.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 96.37% < 20% (prev 21.58%; Δ 74.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 390.0m > Net Income 199.0m |
| Net Debt (6.93b) to EBITDA (1.31b): 5.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.33 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.7m) vs 12m ago -12.36% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.85% > 18% (prev 64.07%; Δ -7.22% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.70% > 50% (prev 42.18%; Δ 1.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.33 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.03b / Interest Expense TTM 777.0m) |
| A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 6.50b - Total Current Liabilities 1.50b) / Total Assets 11.9b |
| B: -0.00 (Retained Earnings -5.00m / Total Assets 11.9b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 1.03b / Avg Total Assets 11.9b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 1.20b / Total Liabilities 10.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.45 = A |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 274.0m/3.36b, Revenue 5.18b/4.97b) |
| GMI: 1.13 (GM 64.07% / 56.85%) |
| AQI: 0.56 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.67) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 5.18b / 4.97b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 199.0m - CFO 390.0m) / TA 11.9b) |
| Beneish M = -3.88 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 49.09 with a total of 934,015 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.26%, over one month by +1.09%, over three months by +14.00% and over the past year by +7.51%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 46.60 (which is 5.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Hilton Grand Vacations has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.78. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HGV.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 57.7 | 17.5% |
P/E Trailing = 26.7135
P/E Forward = 11.4416
P/S = 0.8373
P/B = 3.4706
Revenue TTM = 5.18b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.03b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.31b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.31b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 7.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 86.0m
Net Debt = 6.93b USD (calculated: Debt 7.48b - CCE 552.0m)
Enterprise Value = 10.8b USD (3.88b + Debt 7.48b - CCE 552.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.33 (Ebit TTM 1.03b / Interest Expense TTM 777.0m)
EV/FCF = 32.95x (Enterprise Value 10.8b / FCF TTM 328.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.03% (FCF TTM 328.0m / Enterprise Value 10.8b)
FCF Margin = 6.33% (FCF TTM 328.0m / Revenue TTM 5.18b)
Net Margin = 3.84% (Net Income TTM 199.0m / Revenue TTM 5.18b)
Gross Margin = 56.85% ((Revenue TTM 5.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.24b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.01% (prev 89.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 10.8b / Total Assets 11.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.39% (Interest Expense 777.0m / Debt 7.48b)
Taxrate = 18.04% (46.0m / 255.0m)
NOPAT = 845.8m (EBIT 1.03b * (1 - 18.04%))
Current Ratio = 4.33 (Total Current Assets 6.50b / Total Current Liabilities 1.50b)
Debt / Equity = 6.25 (Debt 7.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.29 (Net Debt 6.93b / EBITDA 1.31b)
Debt / FCF = 21.12 (Net Debt 6.93b / FCF TTM 328.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.68% (Net Income 199.0m / Total Assets 11.9b)
RoE = 14.85% (Net Income TTM 199.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.34b)
RoCE = 11.93% (EBIT 1.03b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.34b + L.T.Debt 7.31b))
RoIC = 8.31% (NOPAT 845.8m / Invested Capital 10.2b)
WACC = 9.42% (E(3.88b)/V(11.4b) * Re(11.18%) + D(7.48b)/V(11.4b) * Rd(10.39%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 11.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -87.41 | Cagr: -11.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.57% ; FCFF base≈280.0m ; Y1≈321.0m ; Y5≈472.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 5.98b - Net Debt 6.93b = -951.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -71.50 | EPS CAGR: -19.63% | SUE: 1.77 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 94.07 | Revenue CAGR: 11.52% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=-10.34% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.51 | Chg30d=-9.65% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.48 | Chg30d=-0.18% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+163.5% | GrowthRev=+12.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.89 | Chg30d=-2.05% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+7.5% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=6, down=1)