(HGV) Hilton Grand Vacations - Overview
Stock: Timeshare, Vacation Ownership, Resort Management, Financing, Club Services
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.75% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.32 |
| Alpha | -8.70 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.389 |
| Beta Downside | 1.167 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.67% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.02 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: HGV Hilton Grand Vacations January 10, 2026
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) develops, markets, sells, manages and operates timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand across the United States and Europe, split between a Real-Estate Sales & Financing segment (selling and financing vacation ownership interests, or VOIs) and a Resort Operations & Club Management segment (running club-based exchange, leisure-travel, and on-property services such as food-beverage, retail and spa).
Key performance indicators from the most recent FY2024 filing show a 12% year-over-year increase in net unit sales (≈ 1.2 million VOIs) and a 5% rise in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) across its owned resorts, while cash-flow from operations grew to $210 million, supporting a leverage ratio of 2.3× net debt to EBITDA.
Primary economic drivers for HGV include discretionary consumer spending trends, the pace of post-pandemic travel recovery, and the cost of capital-higher interest rates can compress the financing margin on VOI loans, while a strong U.S. dollar benefits its European operations by lowering foreign-exchange risk on revenue.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of how these factors translate into valuation risk and upside, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 88.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 95.92% < 20% (prev 104.4%; Δ -8.47% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 238.0m > Net Income 88.0m |
| Net Debt (7.07b) to EBITDA (708.0m): 9.98 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (95.5m) vs 12m ago -6.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.42% > 18% (prev 0.65%; Δ 3976 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.78% > 50% (prev 42.28%; Δ 1.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.42 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 708.0m / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m) |
Altman Z'' 2.99
| A: 0.41 (Total Current Assets 6.50b - Total Current Liabilities 1.70b) / Total Assets 11.68b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 88.0m / Total Assets 11.68b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 445.0m / Avg Total Assets 11.42b) |
| D: 0.01 (Book Value of Equity 77.0m / Total Liabilities 10.14b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.99 = A |
Beneish M -2.48
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 3.50b/3.41b, Revenue 5.00b/4.72b) |
| GMI: 1.61 (GM 40.42% / 65.18%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 5.00b / 4.72b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 88.0m - CFO 238.0m) / TA 11.68b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.48 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of HGV shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.98%, over one month by -3.85%, over three months by +16.54% and over the past year by +9.27%.
Is HGV a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HGV price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 52 | 12.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 52 | 12.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 50.4 | 9.1% |
HGV Fundamental Data Overview February 11, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.4416
P/S = 0.9247
P/B = 2.8973
Revenue TTM = 5.00b USD
EBIT TTM = 445.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 708.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.19b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 27.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.07b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.20b USD (4.13b + Debt 7.28b - CCE 215.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.42 (Ebit TTM 445.0m / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m)
EV/FCF = 99.12x (Enterprise Value 11.20b / FCF TTM 113.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.01% (FCF TTM 113.0m / Enterprise Value 11.20b)
FCF Margin = 2.26% (FCF TTM 113.0m / Revenue TTM 5.00b)
Net Margin = 1.76% (Net Income TTM 88.0m / Revenue TTM 5.00b)
Gross Margin = 40.42% ((Revenue TTM 5.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.23% (prev 24.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 11.20b / Total Assets 11.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 79.0m / Debt 7.28b)
Taxrate = 33.33% (15.0m / 45.0m)
NOPAT = 296.7m (EBIT 445.0m * (1 - 33.33%))
Current Ratio = 3.82 (Total Current Assets 6.50b / Total Current Liabilities 1.70b)
Debt / Equity = 5.26 (Debt 7.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.98 (Net Debt 7.07b / EBITDA 708.0m)
Debt / FCF = 62.54 (Net Debt 7.07b / FCF TTM 113.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.55b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.77% (Net Income 88.0m / Total Assets 11.68b)
RoE = 5.67% (Net Income TTM 88.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.55b)
RoCE = 5.09% (EBIT 445.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.55b + L.T.Debt 7.19b))
RoIC = 3.46% (NOPAT 296.7m / Invested Capital 8.58b)
WACC = 4.46% (E(4.13b)/V(11.42b) * Re(11.03%) + D(7.28b)/V(11.42b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 11.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.82%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.87% ; FCFF base≈116.6m ; Y1≈87.3m ; Y5≈51.9m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.61b - Net Debt 7.07b = -5.45b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -51.78 | EPS CAGR: -36.00% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.85 | Revenue CAGR: 12.42% | SUE: -1.20 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=-0.020 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.34 | Chg30d=-0.041 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+79.0% | Growth Revenue=+8.1%