HGV Stock Analysis: Hilton Grand Vacations | NYSE
Resorts & Casinos | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.776m USD | 12M Return: -6.7% | US43283X1054 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 33.6M
EPS Trend: 15.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 94.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 9.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) is a timeshare and vacation ownership company that develops, markets, sells, and operates resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand across the United States, Japan, and Europe. The company sells Vacation Ownership Interests (VOIs), which grant buyers an interest in a specific property and the right to use it for a set period each year. As a member of the broader Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sub-industry, HGV benefits from the brand recognition and reservation infrastructure of the Hilton family of companies, which can lower customer acquisition costs relative to independent operators.
HGV operates through two reporting segments. The Real Estate Sales and Financing segment markets and sells VOIs, sources additional inventory through fee-for-service agreements, and provides consumer loans to finance purchases-a model that produces a financing receivables book alongside the real estate transaction. The Resort Operations and Club Management segment runs the companys club programs, handling exchange, leisure travel, and reservation services, renting unsold or exchanged inventory, and operating ancillary amenities such as food and beverage, retail, and spa at timeshare properties. These activities generate recurring fee income from club members and resort guests that supplements the lumpier revenue from VOI sales.
Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Orlando, Florida-a major hub for the U.S. timeshare industry-HGV completed its initial public offering on the NYSE in early 2017.
- Interest rate cuts boost timeshare consumer financing demand
- Travel demand recovery drives Resort Operations segment revenue growth
- Consumer credit quality deterioration pressures financing segment margins
| Net Income: 186.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 31.50% < 20% (prev 51.32%; Δ -19.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 463.0m > Net Income 186.0m |
| Net Debt (7.66b) to EBITDA (1.29b): 5.93 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (83.7m) vs 12m ago -10.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 60.72% > 18% (prev 65.03%; Δ -4.30% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 45.90% > 50% (prev 42.63%; Δ 3.27% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.31 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.00b / Interest Expense TTM 768.0m) |
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 3.13b - Total Current Liabilities 1.40b) / Total Assets 12.2b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -101.0m / Total Assets 12.2b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.00b / Avg Total Assets 12.0b) |
| D: 0.10 (Book Value of Equity 1.10b / Total Liabilities 11.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.57 = BB |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 3.90b/444.0m, Revenue 5.50b/5.00b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 65.03% / 60.72%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.65) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 5.50b / 5.00b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 186.0m - CFO 463.0m) / TA 12.2b) |
| Beneish M = -1.24 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of November 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.44 with a total of 1,877,943 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.11%, over one month by +7.43%, over three months by -17.01% and over the past year by -6.74%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 36.00 (which is 6.3% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Hilton Grand Vacations has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.64. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HGV.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 50.6 | 31.7% |
P/E Trailing = 20.2898
P/E Forward = 11.4416
P/S = 0.5137
P/B = 2.5059
Revenue TTM = 5.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.00b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.29b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.77b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 7.93b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 79.0m
Net Debt = 7.66b USD (calculated: Debt 7.93b - CCE 272.0m)
Enterprise Value = 10.4b USD (2.78b + Debt 7.93b - CCE 272.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.31 (Ebit TTM 1.00b / Interest Expense TTM 768.0m)
EV/FCF = 24.72x (Enterprise Value 10.4b / FCF TTM 422.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.04% (FCF TTM 422.0m / Enterprise Value 10.4b)
FCF Margin = 7.67% (FCF TTM 422.0m / Revenue TTM 5.50b)
Net Margin = 3.38% (Net Income TTM 186.0m / Revenue TTM 5.50b)
Gross Margin = 60.72% ((Revenue TTM 5.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.16b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.32% (prev 54.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 10.4b / Total Assets 12.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.68% (Interest Expense 768.0m / Debt 7.93b)
Taxrate = 16.60% (39.0m / 235.0m)
NOPAT = 836.5m (EBIT 1.00b * (1 - 16.60%))
Current Ratio = 2.24 (Total Current Assets 3.13b / Total Current Liabilities 1.40b)
Debt / Equity = 7.20 (Debt 7.93b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.93 (Net Debt 7.66b / EBITDA 1.29b)
Debt / FCF = 18.15 (Net Debt 7.66b / FCF TTM 422.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.55% (Net Income 186.0m / Total Assets 12.2b)
RoE = 14.96% (Net Income TTM 186.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.24b)
RoCE = 11.13% (EBIT 1.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.24b + L.T.Debt 7.77b))
RoIC = 7.92% (NOPAT 836.5m / Invested Capital 10.6b)
WACC = 8.51% (E(2.78b)/V(10.7b) * Re(9.74%) + D(7.93b)/V(10.7b) * Rd(9.68%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 9.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.50 | Cagr: -9.62%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.46% ; FCFF base≈316.8m ; Y1≈363.2m ; Y5≈534.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 2.15 (EV 7.83b - Net Debt 7.66b = Equity 167.2m / Shares 77.7m; r=8.51% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 15.70 | EPS CAGR: 6.82% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 94.71 | Revenue CAGR: 11.98% | SUE: 3.35 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=-10.38% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.76 | Chg30d=-1.73% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+129.1% | GrowthRev=+10.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.13 | Chg30d=-7.42% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+7.8% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -36% (up=2, down=6)