(HGV) Hilton Grand Vacations - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US43283X1054

Timeshare, Vacation Ownership, Resort Management, Financing, Club Services

Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Market Cap in USD: 4,245m

IPO / Inception: 2017-01-04
12m vs SPY: 1.16%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -36.00%
EPS Trend: -51.8%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 12.42%
Rev. Trend: 87.8%

Last SUE: -1.20
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	37.4%
Value at Risk 5%th	55.2%
Relative Tail Risk	-10.30%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.57
Alpha	-1.74
CAGR/Max DD	0.06

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.574
Beta	1.370
Beta Downside	1.128

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	36.67%
Mean DD	16.87%
Median DD	16.64%

Description: HGV Hilton Grand Vacations January 10, 2026

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (NYSE:HGV) develops, markets, sells, manages and operates timeshare resorts under the Hilton Grand Vacations brand across the United States and Europe, split between a Real-Estate Sales & Financing segment (selling and financing vacation ownership interests, or VOIs) and a Resort Operations & Club Management segment (running club-based exchange, leisure-travel, and on-property services such as food-beverage, retail and spa).

Key performance indicators from the most recent FY2024 filing show a 12% year-over-year increase in net unit sales (≈ 1.2 million VOIs) and a 5% rise in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) across its owned resorts, while cash-flow from operations grew to $210 million, supporting a leverage ratio of 2.3× net debt to EBITDA.

Primary economic drivers for HGV include discretionary consumer spending trends, the pace of post-pandemic travel recovery, and the cost of capital-higher interest rates can compress the financing margin on VOI loans, while a strong U.S. dollar benefits its European operations by lowering foreign-exchange risk on revenue.

For a deeper, data-rich assessment of how these factors translate into valuation risk and upside, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth a look.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0

Net Income (88.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 299.9m TTM)

FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.13pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 95.92% (prev 104.4%; Δ -8.47pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 238.0m > Net Income 88.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (7.07b) to EBITDA (708.0m) ratio: 9.98 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 3.82 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (95.5m) change vs 12m ago -6.37% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 40.42% (prev 65.18%; Δ -24.77pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 43.78% (prev 42.28%; Δ 1.50pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 1.42 (EBITDA TTM 708.0m / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 2.99

(A) 0.41 = (Total Current Assets 6.50b - Total Current Liabilities 1.70b) / Total Assets 11.68b

(B) 0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 88.0m / Total Assets 11.68b

(D) 0.01 = Book Value of Equity 77.0m / Total Liabilities 10.14b

Total Rating: 2.99 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 46.24

1. Piotroski 2.0pt

2. FCF Yield 1.00%

3. FCF Margin 2.26%

4. Debt/Equity 5.26

5. Debt/Ebitda 9.98

6. ROIC - WACC (= -1.04)%

7. RoE 5.67%

8. Rev. Trend 87.85%

9. EPS Trend -51.78%

What is the price of HGV shares?

As of January 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 47.43 with a total of 678,801 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.02%, over one month by +8.71%, over three months by +10.25% and over the past year by +21.37%.

Is HGV a buy, sell or hold?

Hilton Grand Vacations has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.78. Therefor, it is recommend to hold HGV.

Strong Buy: 3
Buy: 2
Hold: 3
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the HGV price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	51	7.5%
Analysts Target Price	51	7.5%
ValueRay Target Price	48.3	1.9%

HGV Fundamental Data Overview January 12, 2026

P/E Trailing = 87.5818
P/E Forward = 11.4416
P/S = 0.9496
P/B = 2.9752
Beta = 1.488
Revenue TTM = 5.00b USD
EBIT TTM = 445.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 708.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.19b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 27.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.07b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.31b USD (4.24b + Debt 7.28b - CCE 215.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.42 (Ebit TTM 445.0m / Interest Expense TTM 314.0m)
EV/FCF = 100.1x (Enterprise Value 11.31b / FCF TTM 113.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.00% (FCF TTM 113.0m / Enterprise Value 11.31b)
FCF Margin = 2.26% (FCF TTM 113.0m / Revenue TTM 5.00b)
Net Margin = 1.76% (Net Income TTM 88.0m / Revenue TTM 5.00b)
Gross Margin = 40.42% ((Revenue TTM 5.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.23% (prev 24.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 11.31b / Total Assets 11.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 79.0m / Debt 7.28b)
Taxrate = 33.33% (15.0m / 45.0m)
NOPAT = 296.7m (EBIT 445.0m * (1 - 33.33%))
Current Ratio = 3.82 (Total Current Assets 6.50b / Total Current Liabilities 1.70b)
Debt / Equity = 5.26 (Debt 7.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.39b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.98 (Net Debt 7.07b / EBITDA 708.0m)
Debt / FCF = 62.54 (Net Debt 7.07b / FCF TTM 113.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.55b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.77% (Net Income 88.0m / Total Assets 11.68b)
RoE = 5.67% (Net Income TTM 88.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.55b)
RoCE = 5.09% (EBIT 445.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.55b + L.T.Debt 7.19b))
RoIC = 3.46% (NOPAT 296.7m / Invested Capital 8.58b)
WACC = 4.49% (E(4.24b)/V(11.53b) * Re(10.96%) + D(7.28b)/V(11.53b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 10.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.82%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.87% ; FCFF base≈116.6m ; Y1≈87.3m ; Y5≈51.9m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.61b - Net Debt 7.07b = -5.45b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -51.78 | EPS CAGR: -36.00% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.85 | Revenue CAGR: 12.42% | SUE: -1.20 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=-0.103 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.38 | Chg30d=-0.281 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+80.5% | Growth Revenue=+8.3%

Additional Sources for HGV Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle