HLF Stock Analysis: Herbalife Nutrition | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.359m USD | 12M Return: 35.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 20.9M
EPS Trend: -52.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -14.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Herbalife Ltd. is a U.S.-based health and wellness company that markets weight management, targeted nutrition, energy and fitness, and personal care products across North America, Mexico, South and Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, China, and the Asia Pacific. Its product range spans meal replacements, protein shakes, dietary supplements, functional beverages, and skin and hair care items, supported by promotional and educational materials distributed to its sales network.
The company sells through a combination of independent sales representatives, service providers, and company-operated retail stores and platforms, reflecting the direct-selling business model common in the personal care and nutrition industry. Herbalife was founded in 1980, is headquartered in Los Angeles, California, and trades on the NYSE under the ticker HLF, having gone public in December 2004. It was known as Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. until a corporate name change in April 2023.
Within the GICS classification framework, Herbalife sits in the Consumer Staples sector and the Personal Care Products sub-industry, a grouping that typically includes companies focused on everyday health, beauty, and hygiene consumables rather than discretionary items.
- Distributor recruitment and volume point growth drive revenue
- China direct-selling regulatory scrutiny threatens distributor network expansion
- Mexico peso and emerging market FX volatility pressures reported margins
| Net Income: 239.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.48% < 20% (prev -0.71%; Δ 5.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 446.9m > Net Income 239.8m |
| Net Debt (1.73b) to EBITDA (625.1m): 2.77 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (108.4m) vs 12m ago 6.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.93% > 18% (prev 78.09%; Δ -2.16% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 184.7% > 50% (prev 184.4%; Δ 0.23% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 505.2m / Interest Expense TTM 209.3m) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 1.25b - Total Current Liabilities 1.02b) / Total Assets 2.88b |
| B: -0.18 (Retained Earnings -517.8m / Total Assets 2.88b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 505.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.78b) |
| D: -0.13 (Book Value of Equity -441.5m / Total Liabilities 3.31b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.02 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 106.0m/90.1m, Revenue 5.13b/4.95b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 78.09% / 75.93%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.36) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 5.13b / 4.95b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 239.8m - CFO 446.9m) / TA 2.88b) |
| Beneish M = -2.87 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.15 with a total of 1,090,772 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.31%, over one month by +8.77%, over three months by -15.33% and over the past year by +35.43%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.10 (which is 8% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Herbalife Nutrition has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.80. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HLF.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.3 | 39.4% |
P/E Trailing = 5.75
P/E Forward = 4.8924
P/S = 0.2648
P/B = 31.1876
P/EG = 0.6145
Revenue TTM = 5.13b USD
EBIT TTM = 505.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 625.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.98b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.20m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.18b USD (corrected: LT Debt 1.98b + ST Debt 9.20m) + Leases 191.1m
Net Debt = 1.73b USD (calculated: Debt 2.18b - CCE 451.2m)
Enterprise Value = 3.09b USD (1.36b + Debt 2.18b - CCE 451.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.41 (Ebit TTM 505.2m / Interest Expense TTM 209.3m)
EV/FCF = 8.26x (Enterprise Value 3.09b / FCF TTM 373.9m)
FCF Yield = 12.10% (FCF TTM 373.9m / Enterprise Value 3.09b)
FCF Margin = 7.28% (FCF TTM 373.9m / Revenue TTM 5.13b)
Net Margin = 4.67% (Net Income TTM 239.8m / Revenue TTM 5.13b)
Gross Margin = 75.93% ((Revenue TTM 5.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.24b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.64% (prev 75.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 3.09b / Total Assets 2.88b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.59% (Interest Expense 209.3m / Debt 2.18b)
Taxrate = 19.20% (56.8m / 295.9m)
NOPAT = 408.2m (EBIT 505.2m * (1 - 19.20%))
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 1.25b / Total Current Liabilities 1.02b)
Debt / Equity = -4.94 (negative equity) (Debt 2.18b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -441.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.77 (Net Debt 1.73b / EBITDA 625.1m)
Debt / FCF = 4.63 (Net Debt 1.73b / FCF TTM 373.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -557.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.63% (Net Income 239.8m / Total Assets 2.88b)
RoE = -43.03% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 239.8m / Total Stockholder Equity -557.3m)
RoCE = 35.46% (EBIT 505.2m / Capital Employed (Equity -557.3m + L.T.Debt 1.98b))
RoIC = 25.42% (NOPAT 408.2m / Invested Capital 1.61b)
WACC = 8.49% (E(1.36b)/V(3.54b) * Re(9.68%) + D(2.18b)/V(3.54b) * Rd(9.59%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.56 | Cagr: 3.51%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.52% ; FCFF base≈290.1m ; Y1≈332.6m ; Y5≈489.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 52.63 (EV 7.19b - Net Debt 1.73b = Equity 5.46b / Shares 103.7m; r=8.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -52.11 | EPS CAGR: -5.73% | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -14.21 | Revenue CAGR: -0.18% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.62 | Chg30d=-9.10% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=+3.36% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.64 | Chg30d=+4.06% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+24.5% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.15 | Chg30d=+3.96% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+19.5% | GrowthRev=+2.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36% (up=8, down=3)