HLLY Stock Analysis: Holley | NYSE
Auto Parts | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 347m USD | 12M Return: -28.3% | US43538H1032 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.03M
EPS Trend: 57.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -77.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality
Holley Inc. is a U.S.-based designer, manufacturer, and distributor of automotive aftermarket performance products serving car and truck enthusiasts across the United States, Canada, and Europe. Its product portfolio spans engine components (carburetors, fuel injection systems, superchargers, nitrous oxide systems, ignition parts), exhaust systems, transmission kits and tuners, and automotive software. The company markets under multiple well-known enthusiast brands including Holley, Holley EFI, MSD, Flowmaster, Accel, Simpson, EDGE, and Cataclean, and reaches customers through a diversified mix of direct-to-consumer, e-tailer, warehouse distributor, traditional retailer, automotive platform, and jobber/installer channels. Founded in 1903 and headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, Holley operates within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Automotive Parts & Equipment sub-industry.
The automotive aftermarket sector in which Holley operates is driven by the size and aging profile of the existing vehicle parc, as consumers typically spend on replacement parts, accessories, and performance upgrades after the initial vehicle purchase. The business model relies on brand equity across multiple enthusiast sub-categories and a multi-channel distribution strategy that combines direct relationships with installers and end-consumers alongside traditional wholesale and retail partnerships.
- Consumer discretionary spending on performance parts cools
- DTC and e-commerce channel mix lifts gross margins
- Elevated leverage from buyouts pressures free cash flow conversion
| Net Income: 10.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.15 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.28% < 20% (prev 33.62%; Δ 2.66% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 57.8m > Net Income 10.3m |
| Net Debt (470.8m) to EBITDA (85.2m): 5.53 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (120.3m) vs 12m ago 0.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.92% > 18% (prev 43.46%; Δ -1.54% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.84% > 50% (prev 51.27%; Δ 1.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.39 > 6 (EBIT TTM 56.7m / Interest Expense TTM 40.9m) |
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 330.6m - Total Current Liabilities 108.1m) / Total Assets 1.16b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 68.7m / Total Assets 1.16b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 56.7m / Avg Total Assets 1.16b) |
| D: 0.63 (Book Value of Equity 449.7m / Total Liabilities 712.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.44 = A |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 64.2m/51.0m, Revenue 613.1m/593.8m) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 43.46% / 41.92%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.64 / AQ_t-1 0.67) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 613.1m / 593.8m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 10.3m - CFO 57.8m) / TA 1.16b) |
| Beneish M = -2.82 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 2.87 with a total of 677,269 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.69%, over one month by +3.99%, over three months by +8.71% and over the past year by -28.25%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 2.60 (which is 9.4% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Holley has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.22. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HLLY.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 4.6 | 59.6% |
P/E Trailing = 31.7778
P/E Forward = 6.4558
P/S = 0.5655
P/B = 0.8006
P/EG = 0.2453
Revenue TTM = 613.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 56.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 85.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 518.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 14.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 539.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.53m
Net Debt = 470.8m USD (calculated: Debt 539.9m - CCE 69.0m)
Enterprise Value = 817.6m USD (346.7m + Debt 539.9m - CCE 69.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.39 (Ebit TTM 56.7m / Interest Expense TTM 40.9m)
EV/FCF = 22.37x (Enterprise Value 817.6m / FCF TTM 36.5m)
FCF Yield = 4.47% (FCF TTM 36.5m / Enterprise Value 817.6m)
FCF Margin = 5.96% (FCF TTM 36.5m / Revenue TTM 613.1m)
Net Margin = 1.68% (Net Income TTM 10.3m / Revenue TTM 613.1m)
Gross Margin = 41.92% ((Revenue TTM 613.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 356.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.01% (prev 38.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 817.6m / Total Assets 1.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.57% (Interest Expense 40.9m / Debt 539.9m)
Taxrate = 35.0% (5.56m / 15.9m)
NOPAT = 36.9m (EBIT 56.7m * (1 - 35.00%))
Current Ratio = 3.06 (Total Current Assets 330.6m / Total Current Liabilities 108.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.20 (Debt 539.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 449.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.53 (Net Debt 470.8m / EBITDA 85.2m)
Debt / FCF = 12.88 (Net Debt 470.8m / FCF TTM 36.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 448.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.89% (Net Income 10.3m / Total Assets 1.16b)
RoE = 2.30% (Net Income TTM 10.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 448.6m)
RoCE = 5.87% (EBIT 56.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 448.6m + L.T.Debt 518.6m))
RoIC = 3.55% (NOPAT 36.9m / Invested Capital 1.04b)
WACC = 7.28% (E(346.7m)/V(886.6m) * Re(10.95%) + D(539.9m)/V(886.6m) * Rd(7.57%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 10.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 69.98 | Cagr: 0.29%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈31.1m ; Y1≈35.7m ; Y5≈52.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 2.64 (EV 790.7m - Net Debt 470.8m = Equity 319.9m / Shares 121.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 57.26 | EPS CAGR: 46.58% | SUE: 1.96 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -76.97 | Revenue CAGR: -3.23% | SUE: -0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+10.92% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=+26.79% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+126.4% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=-1.30% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-5.2% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36% (up=8, down=3)