(HLT) Hilton Worldwide Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Hotels, Resorts, Suites, Vacations, Economy
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.22% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.59% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 41.42% |
| Payout Consistency | 74.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 8.2% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 34.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.07% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.33 |
| Alpha | -2.86 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.565 |
| Beta | 0.912 |
| Beta Downside | 0.916 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 26.35% |
| Mean DD | 4.35% |
| Median DD | 3.43% |
Description: HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings December 03, 2025
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HLT) is a U.S.–based hospitality operator that generates revenue through three primary activities: managing hotels for owners, franchising its extensive brand portfolio, and directly owning or leasing select properties.
The company’s brand architecture spans luxury (Waldorf Astoria, Conrad), lifestyle (Canopy, Curio, LXR), full-service (Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree), focused-service (Hampton, Tru), and extended-stay segments (Homewood Suites, Home2 Suites), plus a timeshare arm (Hilton Grand Vacations). These brands are deployed across North America, Latin America (including the Caribbean), EMEA, and Asia-Pacific.
According to Hilton’s FY 2023 Form 10-K, total revenue reached **$9.5 billion**, a 13 % YoY increase driven largely by higher average daily rates (ADR) and occupancy. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to **23 %**, reflecting cost-discipline in the management-franchise model. The pipeline now includes **≈ 530 new hotels** slated to open through 2026, adding roughly **$1.2 billion** of incremental franchise fees under the assumption of average franchise fee yields remaining stable.
Key economic drivers for Hilton’s outlook include: (1) the rebound in leisure travel demand as disposable income and consumer confidence rise post-pandemic; (2) a slower recovery in corporate travel, which creates upside risk if business-trip volumes exceed current forecasts; and (3) inflation-linked cost pressures on labor and utilities, which could compress margins unless offset by price-power or operational efficiencies. Base-rate analysis suggests a 5-point upside in RevPAR if occupancy climbs 2 % and ADR grows 3 % year-over-year.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst toolkit to model these assumptions more rigorously.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (1.67b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 704.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.82pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -13.46% (prev -8.35%; Δ -5.11pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.51b > Net Income 1.67b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (11.29b) to EBITDA (2.76b) ratio: 4.09 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.66 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (240.0m) change vs 12m ago -3.61% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 27.81% (prev 27.34%; Δ 0.47pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 70.42% (prev 65.91%; Δ 4.51pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.23 (EBITDA TTM 2.76b / Interest Expense TTM 612.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.05
| (A) -0.09 = (Total Current Assets 3.12b - Total Current Liabilities 4.70b) / Total Assets 16.64b |
| (B) -0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.77b / Total Assets 16.64b |
| (C) 0.16 = EBIT TTM 2.59b / Avg Total Assets 16.66b |
| (D) -0.12 = Book Value of Equity -2.48b / Total Liabilities 21.53b |
| Total Rating: -0.05 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 73.94
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.98% |
| 3. FCF Margin 19.91% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 4.09 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 18.44)% |
| 7. RoE -37.78% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 88.51% |
| 9. EPS Trend 76.60% |
What is the price of HLT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.73%, over one month by +1.73%, over three months by +0.04% and over the past year by +8.51%.
Is HLT a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 15
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HLT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 283.7 | 2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 283.7 | 2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 340.1 | 22.3% |
HLT Fundamental Data Overview December 02, 2025
P/E Trailing = 41.3087
P/E Forward = 31.1526
P/S = 13.7654
P/EG = 1.6041
Beta = 1.166
Revenue TTM = 11.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.59b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.76b USD
Long Term Debt = 11.60b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 35.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.35b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 11.29b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 78.33b USD (67.04b + Debt 12.35b - CCE 1.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.23 (Ebit TTM 2.59b / Interest Expense TTM 612.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.98% (FCF TTM 2.34b / Enterprise Value 78.33b)
FCF Margin = 19.91% (FCF TTM 2.34b / Revenue TTM 11.73b)
Net Margin = 14.19% (Net Income TTM 1.67b / Revenue TTM 11.73b)
Gross Margin = 27.81% ((Revenue TTM 11.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.47b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.16% (prev 30.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.71 (Enterprise Value 78.33b / Total Assets 16.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.29% (Interest Expense 159.0m / Debt 12.35b)
Taxrate = 30.30% (183.0m / 604.0m)
NOPAT = 1.81b (EBIT 2.59b * (1 - 30.30%))
Current Ratio = 0.66 (Total Current Assets 3.12b / Total Current Liabilities 4.70b)
Debt / Equity = -2.50 (negative equity) (Debt 12.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -4.93b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.09 (Net Debt 11.29b / EBITDA 2.76b)
Debt / FCF = 4.83 (Net Debt 11.29b / FCF TTM 2.34b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -4.41b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.01% (Net Income 1.67b / Total Assets 16.64b)
RoE = -37.78% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 1.67b / Total Stockholder Equity -4.41b)
RoCE = 36.00% (EBIT 2.59b / Capital Employed (Equity -4.41b + L.T.Debt 11.60b))
RoIC = 26.50% (NOPAT 1.81b / Invested Capital 6.81b)
WACC = 8.06% (E(67.04b)/V(79.39b) * Re(9.38%) + D(12.35b)/V(79.39b) * Rd(1.29%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 9.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.55%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.35% ; FCFE base≈2.08b ; Y1≈2.44b ; Y5≈3.68b
Fair Price DCF = 213.7 (DCF Value 49.68b / Shares Outstanding 232.4m; 5y FCF grow 18.04% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 76.60 | EPS CAGR: 33.20% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.51 | Revenue CAGR: 15.19% | SUE: 3.68 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.85 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=13
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.14 | Chg30d=+0.017 | Revisions Net=+7 | Growth EPS=+13.1% | Growth Revenue=+7.6%
Additional Sources for HLT Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle