(HLT) Hilton Worldwide Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Hotels, Resorts, Timeshares, Management, Franchises
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.21% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.59% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 41.42% |
| Payout Consistency | 74.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 8.2% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 33.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.06% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.43 |
| Alpha | -1.42 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.02 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.443 |
| Beta | 0.921 |
| Beta Downside | 0.914 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 26.35% |
| Mean DD | 4.52% |
| Median DD | 3.64% |
Description: HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings September 26, 2025
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HLT) is an asset-light hospitality firm that generates revenue primarily through two operating segments: (1) Management and Franchise, where it licenses its portfolio of 18 distinct brands and provides hotel management services, and (2) Ownership, which includes the company’s owned and leased properties. The brand suite spans luxury (Waldorf Astoria, Conrad), lifestyle (LXR, Curio), full-service (Hilton Hotels & Resorts, DoubleTree), focused-service (Hampton, Tru), extended-stay (Homewood Suites, Home2 Suites), and timeshare (Hilton Grand Vacations) concepts, giving Hilton exposure to multiple price points and traveler segments across more than 110 countries.
Key operating metrics that analysts track include RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) and adjusted EBITDA margin. As of FY 2024, Hilton reported a global RevPAR growth of ~6% YoY, driven by strong demand in the Asia-Pacific and Europe-Middle East-Africa regions, while the adjusted EBITDA margin stabilized around 27% after the post-pandemic recovery. The company’s pipeline contains roughly 1,200 hotels under development, representing an estimated 1.2 million rooms, which should sustain top-line growth assuming macro-economic conditions-particularly discretionary travel spending and corporate travel budgets-remain supportive. A material driver of future performance is the Hilton Honors loyalty program, which now boasts over 115 million members and contributes to higher repeat-guest occupancy and pricing power.
Given Hilton’s asset-light model, its earnings are less sensitive to capital-intensive property cycles, but the firm is exposed to macro-risk factors such as interest-rate-driven financing costs for franchisees and geopolitical tensions that could affect international travel flows; a 100-basis-point rise in global rates could compress franchise fee growth by an estimated 0.5-1.0 percentage points, according to industry base-rate studies. For investors seeking a deeper quantitative breakdown of these sensitivities, a review of ValueRay’s platform can provide the granular scenario analysis needed to assess Hilton’s risk-adjusted upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income (1.67b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 704.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.82pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -13.46% (prev -8.35%; Δ -5.11pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.51b > Net Income 1.67b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (11.29b) to EBITDA (2.76b) ratio: 4.09 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.66 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (240.0m) change vs 12m ago -3.61% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 27.81% (prev 27.34%; Δ 0.47pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 70.42% (prev 65.91%; Δ 4.51pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.23 (EBITDA TTM 2.76b / Interest Expense TTM 612.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.05
| (A) -0.09 = (Total Current Assets 3.12b - Total Current Liabilities 4.70b) / Total Assets 16.64b |
| (B) -0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.77b / Total Assets 16.64b |
| (C) 0.16 = EBIT TTM 2.59b / Avg Total Assets 16.66b |
| (D) -0.12 = Book Value of Equity -2.48b / Total Liabilities 21.53b |
| Total Rating: -0.05 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 74.04
| 1. Piotroski 7.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.14% |
| 3. FCF Margin 19.91% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -2.50 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 4.09 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 18.49)% |
| 7. RoE -37.78% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 88.84% |
| 9. EPS Trend 76.60% |
What is the price of HLT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.18%, over one month by +7.40%, over three months by +3.50% and over the past year by +14.38%.
Is HLT a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 15
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HLT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 283.8 | -0.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 283.8 | -0.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 347.6 | 21.7% |
HLT Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 38.8882
P/E Forward = 29.0698
P/S = 12.94
P/EG = 1.4973
Beta = 1.166
Revenue TTM = 11.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.59b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.76b USD
Long Term Debt = 11.60b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 35.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.35b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 11.29b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 74.31b USD (63.02b + Debt 12.35b - CCE 1.06b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.23 (Ebit TTM 2.59b / Interest Expense TTM 612.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.14% (FCF TTM 2.34b / Enterprise Value 74.31b)
FCF Margin = 19.91% (FCF TTM 2.34b / Revenue TTM 11.73b)
Net Margin = 14.19% (Net Income TTM 1.67b / Revenue TTM 11.73b)
Gross Margin = 27.81% ((Revenue TTM 11.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.47b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.16% (prev 30.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.47 (Enterprise Value 74.31b / Total Assets 16.64b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.29% (Interest Expense 159.0m / Debt 12.35b)
Taxrate = 30.30% (183.0m / 604.0m)
NOPAT = 1.81b (EBIT 2.59b * (1 - 30.30%))
Current Ratio = 0.66 (Total Current Assets 3.12b / Total Current Liabilities 4.70b)
Debt / Equity = -2.50 (negative equity) (Debt 12.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -4.93b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.09 (Net Debt 11.29b / EBITDA 2.76b)
Debt / FCF = 4.83 (Net Debt 11.29b / FCF TTM 2.34b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -4.41b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.01% (Net Income 1.67b / Total Assets 16.64b)
RoE = -37.78% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 1.67b / Total Stockholder Equity -4.41b)
RoCE = 36.00% (EBIT 2.59b / Capital Employed (Equity -4.41b + L.T.Debt 11.60b))
RoIC = 26.50% (NOPAT 1.81b / Invested Capital 6.81b)
WACC = 8.01% (E(63.02b)/V(75.37b) * Re(9.41%) + D(12.35b)/V(75.37b) * Rd(1.29%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 9.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.55%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.26% ; FCFE base≈2.08b ; Y1≈2.44b ; Y5≈3.68b
Fair Price DCF = 212.7 (DCF Value 49.44b / Shares Outstanding 232.4m; 5y FCF grow 18.04% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 76.60 | EPS CAGR: 33.20% | SUE: 0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.84 | Revenue CAGR: 15.19% | SUE: 3.68 | # QB: 2
Additional Sources for HLT Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle