HMC Stock Analysis: Honda Motor | NYSE

Motorcycles, Automobiles, Power Equipment, Aircraft

Total Rating 46

Safety 64

Buy Signal 0.80

Auto Manufacturers
Industry Rotation: +5.7

Market Cap: 42.4B
Avg Turnover: 25.6M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility30.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl5.19%

VaR vs Median4.08%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.01

Rel. Str. IBD66.5

Rel. Str. Peer Group89.6

Character TTM

Beta0.228

Beta Downside0.176

Hurst Exponent0.433

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD35.20%

CAGR/Max DD0.04

CAGR/Mean DD0.11

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 5.21%
Rev. Trend: 81.0%

Last SUE: 0.10
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +1.1% 20

Feb -0.0% 5

Mar +0.1% 7

Apr -2.4% 9

May +0.4% 7

Jun -0.7% 5

Jul +2.2% 21

Aug +1.1% 14

Sep -0.9% 14

Oct -0.5% 16

Nov +0.2% 0

Dec -0.4% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: HMC Honda Motor

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. is a Japan-based global manufacturer founded in 1946 and headquartered in Tokyo. The company operates through four segments: Motorcycle Business, Automobile Business, Financial Services Business, and Power Product and Other Businesses, selling its products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and other international markets. Its product range spans motorcycles (sports, business, commuter, and off-road vehicles), passenger cars, light trucks, and mini vehicles, along with power products such as engines, lawn mowers, generators, and water pumps. The company also manufactures the HondaJet aircraft and supports its products with spare parts and after-sales services through a network of dealers and independent distributors.

Honda trades on the NYSE as an American Depositary Receipt under the ticker HMC and is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under Automobile Manufacturers. As a major global automaker, Honda benefits from high barriers to entry in the industry, including significant capital requirements and established distribution networks. Its in-house Financial Services segment reflects a common business model practice among major automakers, which operate captive finance arms to support dealer inventory financing and retail customer lending and leasing, helping to stabilize revenues across economic cycles.

Headlines to Watch Out For

North America automobile sales and hybrid mix expand margins
Motorcycle demand in India and Indonesia drives volume growth
Yen depreciation lifts reported overseas earnings

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0

Net Income: -170b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.26 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 12.75% < 20% (prev 14.21%; Δ -1.46% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 1342b > Net Income -170b
Net Debt (8906b) to EBITDA (1297b): 6.87 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.28 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.40b) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2%
Gross Margin: 17.23% > 18% (prev 20.99%; Δ -3.76% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 70.06% > 50% (prev 70.26%; Δ -0.21% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.02 > 6 (EBIT TTM -1.41b / Interest Expense TTM 89.2b)

Altman Z'' 2.05

A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 13075b - Total Current Liabilities 10204b) / Total Assets 33509b
B: 0.28 (Retained Earnings 9376b / Total Assets 33509b)
C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -1.41b / Avg Total Assets 32143b)
D: 0.55 (Book Value of Equity 11818b / Total Liabilities 21361b)
Altman-Z'' = 2.05 = BBB

Beneish M -2.42

DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 4328b/3917b, Revenue 22518b/21624b)
GMI: 1.22 (GM 20.99% / 17.23%)
AQI: 1.56 (AQ_t 0.51 / AQ_t-1 0.33)
SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 22518b / 21624b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI -170b - CFO 1342b) / TA 33509b)
Beneish M = -2.42 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB

What is the price of HMC shares?

As of September 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 32.52 with a total of 649,985 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.57%, over one month by +2.59%, over three months by +20.13% and over the past year by +0.36%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 30.60 (which is 5.9% or 2.9 ATR below the current price).

Is HMC a buy, sell or hold?

Honda Motor has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HMC.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 1
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the HMC price?

Analysts Target Price	32.9	1.2%

Honda Motor (HMC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 42.4b (42.4b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap JPY = 6514b (42.4b USD * 153.64 USD.JPY)
P/E Forward = 25.7069
P/S = 0.0019
P/B = 0.5557
P/EG = 3.4538
Revenue TTM = 22518b JPY
EBIT TTM = -1.41b JPY
EBITDA TTM = 1297b JPY
Long Term Debt = 8641b JPY (estimated: total debt 13973b - short term 5332b)
Short Term Debt = 5332b JPY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13973b JPY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8906b JPY (calculated: Debt 13973b - CCE 5067b)
Enterprise Value = 15419b JPY (6514b + Debt 13973b - CCE 5067b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.02 (Ebit TTM -1.41b / Interest Expense TTM 89.2b)
EV/FCF = 1000.0x (Enterprise Value 15419b / FCF TTM 7.21b)
FCF Yield = 0.05% (FCF TTM 7.21b / Enterprise Value 15419b)
FCF Margin = 0.03% (FCF TTM 7.21b / Revenue TTM 22518b)
Net Margin = -0.75% (Net Income TTM -170b / Revenue TTM 22518b)
Gross Margin = 17.23% ((Revenue TTM 22518b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18637b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.24% (prev 6.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.46 (Enterprise Value 15419b / Total Assets 33509b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.64% (Interest Expense 89.2b / Debt 13973b)
Taxrate = 21.69% (131b / 605b)
NOPAT = -1.11b (EBIT -1.41b * (1 - 21.69%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.28 (Total Current Assets 13075b / Total Current Liabilities 10204b)
Debt / Equity = 1.18 (Debt 13973b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11818b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.87 (Net Debt 8906b / EBITDA 1297b)
Debt / FCF = 1.23k (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 8906b / FCF TTM 7.21b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 12027b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.53% (Net Income -170b / Total Assets 33509b)
RoE = -1.41% (Net Income TTM -170b / Total Stockholder Equity 12027b)
RoCE = -0.01% (EBIT -1.41b / Capital Employed (Equity 12027b + L.T.Debt 8641b))
RoIC = -0.00% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -1.11b / Invested Capital 27511b)
WACC = 2.50% (E(6514b)/V(20486b) * Re(6.78%) + D(13973b)/V(20486b) * Rd(0.64%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -89.24 | Cagr: -6.28%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈7.21b ; Y1≈7.24b ; Y5≈7.67b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 119b - Net Debt 8906b = -8787b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 80.96 | Revenue CAGR: 5.21% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=2.37 | Chg30d=+4834.51% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+218.0% | GrowthRev=+439.6%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=3.65 | Chg30d=+19.43% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+53.6% | GrowthRev=+1.7%