(HMY) Harmony Gold Mining - Ratings and Ratios
Gold, Uranium, Silver, Copper
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.09% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.60% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 20.04% |
| Payout Consistency | 42.7% |
| Payout Ratio | - |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 70.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 93.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.85% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.63 |
| Alpha | 116.03 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.79 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.388 |
| Beta | 0.401 |
| Beta Downside | 0.072 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 33.52% |
| Mean DD | 11.97% |
| Median DD | 11.73% |
Description: HMY Harmony Gold Mining January 07, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (NYSE:HMY) is a diversified miner focused on gold, with ancillary exploration for uranium, silver, and copper across South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The firm operates nine underground mines in South Africa’s Witwatersrand Basin and Kraaipan Greenstone Belt, runs several surface-source projects, and holds stakes in the Hidden Valley open-pit gold-silver mine (PNG), the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project (PNG), and the Eva copper project (Queensland, Australia). Founded in 1950 and headquartered in Randfontein, South Africa, Harmony’s core business remains the extraction and processing of gold ore.
As of FY 2023, Harmony produced roughly 1.2 million ounces of gold, reporting an all-in sustaining cash cost of about US$950 per ounce-well below the industry median of ~US$1,050. The company’s proven and probable reserves stood at ~ 13 million ounces, giving it an estimated reserve life of over 10 years at current production rates. Net debt was trimmed to ≈ US$400 million, improving the debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 1.2×, which is modest for a mid-tier gold producer.
Key economic drivers for Harmony include the global gold price (which has averaged US$1,800/oz in 2023), the South African rand-to-dollar exchange rate (a weaker rand boosts local-currency earnings), and labor stability-South Africa’s mining sector has faced periodic strikes that can compress operating margins. Additionally, the company’s exposure to high-grade underground assets provides a cost advantage relative to peers reliant on lower-grade open-pit mines.
For a deeper, data-rich view of Harmony’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income: 19.72b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.25 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.60 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.68% < 20% (prev 4.66%; Δ 2.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.52 > 3% & CFO 39.96b > Net Income 19.72b |
| Net Debt (-10.87b) to EBITDA (39.81b): -0.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.72 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (633.0m) vs 12m ago -0.84% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.52% > 18% (prev 0.29%; Δ 3322 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 193.6% > 50% (prev 147.0%; Δ 46.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 30.36 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 39.81b / Interest Expense TTM 1.01b) |
Altman Z'' 6.09
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 21.31b - Total Current Liabilities 12.39b) / Total Assets 77.50b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 14.58b / Total Assets 77.50b) |
| C: 0.44 (EBIT TTM 30.55b / Avg Total Assets 68.98b) |
| D: 1.66 (Book Value of Equity 48.23b / Total Liabilities 28.99b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.09 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.45
| DSRI: 1.87 (Receivables 4.00b/1.43b, Revenue 133.53b/88.86b) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 33.52% / 29.39%) |
| AQI: 0.81 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 1.50 (Revenue 133.53b / 88.86b) |
| TATA: -0.26 (NI 19.72b - CFO 39.96b) / TA 77.50b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.45 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 81.92
| 1. Piotroski: 8.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: data missing |
| 3. FCF Margin: 14.26% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 0.05 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: -0.27 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: 34.54% |
| 7. RoE: 44.91% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 64.75% |
| 9. EPS Trend: data missing |
What is the price of HMY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.04%, over one month by +21.10%, over three months by +46.78% and over the past year by +132.28%.
Is HMY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HMY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22.8 | -5.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22.8 | -5.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 41.1 | 70.1% |
HMY Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/S = 0.1982
P/B = 4.9057
Revenue TTM = 133.53b USD
EBIT TTM = 30.55b USD
EBITDA TTM = 39.81b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.89b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 59.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.23b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -10.87b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.77b USD (14.65b + Debt 2.23b - CCE 13.10b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 30.36 (Ebit TTM 30.55b / Interest Expense TTM 1.01b)
EV/FCF = 0.20x (Enterprise Value 3.77b / FCF TTM 19.04b)
FCF Yield = 504.5% (FCF TTM 19.04b / Enterprise Value 3.77b)
FCF Margin = 14.26% (FCF TTM 19.04b / Revenue TTM 133.53b)
Net Margin = 14.77% (Net Income TTM 19.72b / Revenue TTM 133.53b)
Gross Margin = 33.52% ((Revenue TTM 133.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 88.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.06% (prev 39.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.05 (Enterprise Value 3.77b / Total Assets 77.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.01% (Interest Expense 67.0m / Debt 2.23b)
Taxrate = 39.03% (4.24b / 10.86b)
NOPAT = 18.62b (EBIT 30.55b * (1 - 39.03%))
Current Ratio = 1.72 (Total Current Assets 21.31b / Total Current Liabilities 12.39b)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 2.23b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 48.23b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.27 (Net Debt -10.87b / EBITDA 39.81b)
Debt / FCF = -0.57 (Net Debt -10.87b / FCF TTM 19.04b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 43.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 28.58% (Net Income 19.72b / Total Assets 77.50b)
RoE = 44.91% (Net Income TTM 19.72b / Total Stockholder Equity 43.90b)
RoCE = 66.70% (EBIT 30.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 43.90b + L.T.Debt 1.89b))
RoIC = 41.20% (NOPAT 18.62b / Invested Capital 45.21b)
WACC = 6.66% (E(14.65b)/V(16.88b) * Re(7.39%) + D(2.23b)/V(16.88b) * Rd(3.01%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 7.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow 19.04b)
Revenue Correlation: 64.75 | Revenue CAGR: 17.41% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for HMY Stock
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