(HMY) Harmony Gold Mining - Ratings and Ratios
Gold, Uranium, Silver, Copper
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.94% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.99% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 12.22% |
| Payout Consistency | 42.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 1.5% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 70.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 98.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.14% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.51 |
| Alpha | 113.56 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.64 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.370 |
| Beta | 0.423 |
| Beta Downside | 0.269 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 33.52% |
| Mean DD | 12.31% |
| Median DD | 11.99% |
Description: HMY Harmony Gold Mining November 04, 2025
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (NYSE:HMY) is a South-African-based miner that explores, extracts, and processes gold, uranium, silver, and copper across three continents. Its core assets include nine underground mines in the historic Witwatersrand Basin and Kraaipan Greenstone Belt, plus surface operations in South Africa, an open-pit gold-silver mine at Hidden Valley (PNG), the Wafi-Golpu gold project (PNG), and a copper development in Queensland, Australia.
In 2023 the company produced approximately 620,000 oz of gold, reporting an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of around $1,200 per ounce and a cash cost near $900 per ounce. Harmony’s balance sheet shows net debt of roughly $500 million, giving a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 1.2×, while its dividend payout ratio remains below 30 % of free cash flow, preserving financial flexibility.
Key economic drivers for Harmony are the global gold price (which has averaged $1,950/oz in 2023), South African rand volatility, and the company’s exposure to high-grade underground mining, which typically yields lower marginal costs than surface operations. Sector-wide, rising inflation expectations and central-bank dovishness continue to support gold as a hedge, while copper demand growth in renewable-energy infrastructure underpins the long-term upside of the Eva Copper Project.
For a deeper, data-rich analysis of Harmony’s valuation metrics and scenario modeling, you may find the research tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (19.72b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 8.01b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.25 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 8.60pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 6.68% (prev 4.66%; Δ 2.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.52 (>3.0%) and CFO 39.96b > Net Income 19.72b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-10.87b) to EBITDA (39.81b) ratio: -0.27 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.72 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (633.0m) change vs 12m ago -0.84% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 33.52% (prev 29.39%; Δ 4.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 193.6% (prev 147.0%; Δ 46.59pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 30.36 (EBITDA TTM 39.81b / Interest Expense TTM 1.01b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 6.09
| (A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 21.31b - Total Current Liabilities 12.39b) / Total Assets 77.50b |
| (B) 0.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 14.58b / Total Assets 77.50b |
| (C) 0.44 = EBIT TTM 30.55b / Avg Total Assets 68.98b |
| (D) 1.66 = Book Value of Equity 48.23b / Total Liabilities 28.99b |
| Total Rating: 6.09 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 83.79
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield data missing |
| 3. FCF Margin 14.26% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.05 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.27 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 34.54)% |
| 7. RoE 44.91% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 64.75% |
| 9. EPS Trend 37.36% |
What is the price of HMY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.75%, over one month by +8.34%, over three months by +36.45% and over the past year by +125.75%.
Is HMY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HMY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 21.3 | 4.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 21.3 | 4.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 33.6 | 64.5% |
HMY Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
P/E Trailing = 13.8815
P/S = 0.1599
P/B = 4.2466
Beta = 0.604
Revenue TTM = 133.53b USD
EBIT TTM = 30.55b USD
EBITDA TTM = 39.81b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.89b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 59.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.23b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -10.87b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 947.5m USD (11.82b + Debt 2.23b - CCE 13.10b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 30.36 (Ebit TTM 30.55b / Interest Expense TTM 1.01b)
FCF Yield = 2010 % (FCF TTM 19.04b / Enterprise Value 947.5m)
FCF Margin = 14.26% (FCF TTM 19.04b / Revenue TTM 133.53b)
Net Margin = 14.77% (Net Income TTM 19.72b / Revenue TTM 133.53b)
Gross Margin = 33.52% ((Revenue TTM 133.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 88.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.06% (prev 39.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.01 (Enterprise Value 947.5m / Total Assets 77.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.01% (Interest Expense 67.0m / Debt 2.23b)
Taxrate = 39.03% (4.24b / 10.86b)
NOPAT = 18.62b (EBIT 30.55b * (1 - 39.03%))
Current Ratio = 1.72 (Total Current Assets 21.31b / Total Current Liabilities 12.39b)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 2.23b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 48.23b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.27 (Net Debt -10.87b / EBITDA 39.81b)
Debt / FCF = -0.57 (Net Debt -10.87b / FCF TTM 19.04b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 43.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 25.44% (Net Income 19.72b / Total Assets 77.50b)
RoE = 44.91% (Net Income TTM 19.72b / Total Stockholder Equity 43.90b)
RoCE = 66.70% (EBIT 30.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 43.90b + L.T.Debt 1.89b))
RoIC = 41.20% (NOPAT 18.62b / Invested Capital 45.21b)
WACC = 6.66% (E(11.82b)/V(14.05b) * Re(7.57%) + D(2.23b)/V(14.05b) * Rd(3.01%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 7.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.96%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈15.29b ; Y1≈18.86b ; Y5≈32.17b
Fair Price DCF = 876.1 (DCF Value 547.22b / Shares Outstanding 624.6m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 37.36 | EPS CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 64.75 | Revenue CAGR: 17.41% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=2.29 | Chg30d=-0.389 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+77.6% | Growth Revenue=+38.0%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=2.41 | Chg30d=+0.110 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+5.2% | Growth Revenue=+13.7%
Additional Sources for HMY Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle