(HOG) Harley-Davidson - Overview
Stock: Motorcycles, Parts, Apparel, Financing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.88% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.23% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.66% |
| Payout Consistency | 92.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 14.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.71% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.48 |
| Alpha | -40.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.155 |
| Beta Downside | 1.040 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 57.20% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.42 |
Description: HOG Harley-Davidson January 10, 2026
Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) operates three core segments: the Harley-Davidson Motor Company, which designs, manufactures and sells a full range of motorcycles (cruiser, trike, touring, sport, adventure, dual-sport) plus parts, accessories, apparel and trademark licences through independent dealers and e-commerce; LiveWire, focused on electric motorcycles, kids’ balance bikes, and related accessories; and Harley-Davidson Financial Services, which provides wholesale floor-plan financing, retail installment loans, point-of-sale insurance, and licences its brand to third-party credit-card issuers.
Key recent metrics (FY 2024) include a 5.2% YoY revenue increase to $5.0 bn, driven largely by a 12% rise in LiveWire sales, while the traditional motorcycle segment saw a modest 2% decline amid an aging core demographic. The company’s free cash flow stood at $540 m, supporting a dividend yield of ~2.5% and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.1×, indicating moderate leverage. Primary economic drivers are U.S. consumer confidence (which influences discretionary big-ticket purchases), the pace of electrification in the two-wheel market (projected CAGR ≈ 15% through 2028), and dealer inventory health, which recent surveys show is tightening after a period of excess stock.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, the ValueRay platform offers granular metrics on HOG’s valuation multiples and cash-flow trends.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 501.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 112.9% < 20% (prev 30.99%; Δ 81.92% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 550.1m > Net Income 501.1m |
| Net Debt (3.39b) to EBITDA (912.3m): 3.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (121.7m) vs 12m ago -7.09% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.98% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 2862 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 37.28% > 50% (prev 42.62%; Δ -5.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 19.93 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 912.3m / Interest Expense TTM 33.2m) |
Altman Z'' 5.26
| A: 0.47 (Total Current Assets 8.24b - Total Current Liabilities 3.28b) / Total Assets 10.57b |
| B: 0.38 (Retained Earnings 4.02b / Total Assets 10.57b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 662.7m / Avg Total Assets 11.80b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 3.71b / Total Liabilities 7.01b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.26 = AAA |
Beneish M -1.97
| DSRI: 2.71 (Receivables 5.61b/2.61b, Revenue 4.40b/5.55b) |
| GMI: 1.24 (GM 28.98% / 35.83%) |
| AQI: 0.30 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.49) |
| SGI: 0.79 (Revenue 4.40b / 5.55b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 501.1m - CFO 550.1m) / TA 10.57b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.97 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
What is the price of HOG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.97%, over one month by -6.02%, over three months by -19.56% and over the past year by -19.61%.
Is HOG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HOG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 26.5 | 31.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 26.5 | 31.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 18.2 | -9.8% |
HOG Fundamental Data Overview February 08, 2026
P/E Forward = 6.3573
P/S = 0.5339
P/B = 0.6644
P/EG = 0.5795
Revenue TTM = 4.40b USD
EBIT TTM = 662.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 912.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.15b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.01b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.39b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.93b USD (2.49b + Debt 5.21b - CCE 1.78b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 19.93 (Ebit TTM 662.7m / Interest Expense TTM 33.2m)
EV/FCF = 15.13x (Enterprise Value 5.93b / FCF TTM 391.9m)
FCF Yield = 6.61% (FCF TTM 391.9m / Enterprise Value 5.93b)
FCF Margin = 8.91% (FCF TTM 391.9m / Revenue TTM 4.40b)
Net Margin = 11.40% (Net Income TTM 501.1m / Revenue TTM 4.40b)
Gross Margin = 28.98% ((Revenue TTM 4.40b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.36% (prev 28.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.56 (Enterprise Value 5.93b / Total Assets 10.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.20% (Interest Expense 10.2m / Debt 5.21b)
Taxrate = 23.68% (116.4m / 491.5m)
NOPAT = 505.8m (EBIT 662.7m * (1 - 23.68%))
Current Ratio = 2.51 (Total Current Assets 8.24b / Total Current Liabilities 3.28b)
Debt / Equity = 1.46 (Debt 5.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.57b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.71 (Net Debt 3.39b / EBITDA 912.3m)
Debt / FCF = 8.65 (Net Debt 3.39b / FCF TTM 391.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.31b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.25% (Net Income 501.1m / Total Assets 10.57b)
RoE = 15.14% (Net Income TTM 501.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.31b)
RoCE = 10.26% (EBIT 662.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.31b + L.T.Debt 3.15b))
RoIC = 5.12% (NOPAT 505.8m / Invested Capital 9.88b)
WACC = 3.39% (E(2.49b)/V(7.70b) * Re(10.17%) + D(5.21b)/V(7.70b) * Rd(0.20%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -7.26%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈543.1m ; Y1≈669.9m ; Y5≈1.14b
Fair Price DCF = 252.5 (EV 33.22b - Net Debt 3.39b = Equity 29.83b / Shares 118.1m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -25.66 | EPS CAGR: -20.54% | SUE: 2.11 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -28.46 | Revenue CAGR: 1.48% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.99 | Chg30d=-0.021 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-51.3% | Growth Revenue=+1.8%