HOV Stock Analysis: Hovnanian Enterprises | NYSE
Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 617m USD | 12M Return: -22.3% | US4424874018 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 11.8M
EPS Trend: -81.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 31.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: HOV) is a U.S. homebuilder that designs, constructs, markets, and sells residential homes across multiple buyer segments, including first-time, move-up, luxury, active lifestyle, and empty nester purchasers. Its product portfolio spans single-family detached homes, attached townhomes, condominiums, urban infill housing, and active lifestyle communities with amenities such as clubhouses, pools, tennis courts, and open recreational areas. The company also operates a vertically integrated model by offering mortgage loans and title services to its homebuyers. Founded in 1959 and headquartered in Matawan, New Jersey, Hovnanian is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the GICS Homebuilding sub-industry.
As a homebuilder, Hovnanian operates in a highly cyclical industry that is sensitive to movements in mortgage interest rates, consumer confidence, and broader housing supply-demand dynamics. The bundled mortgage and title operations represent a strategic extension of its core homebuilding business, allowing the company to capture additional revenue from each transaction while streamlining the home-buying process for customers.
- Mortgage rate surge pressures new home order growth
- Cancellation rates spike amid deteriorating housing affordability
- High debt leverage amplifies Federal Reserve rate hike impact
| Net Income: 18.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 41.66% < 20% (prev 45.47%; Δ -3.81% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 218.8m > Net Income 18.1m |
| Net Debt (696.5m) to EBITDA (80.3m): 8.67 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.34 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (6.41m) vs 12m ago 0.20% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.03% > 18% (prev 16.46%; Δ 15.57% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 102.8% > 50% (prev 119.4%; Δ -16.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 64.4m / Interest Expense TTM 45.7m) |
| A: 0.41 (Total Current Assets 2.05b - Total Current Liabilities 876.6m) / Total Assets 2.86b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 138.1m / Total Assets 2.86b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 64.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.75b) |
| D: 0.40 (Book Value of Equity 818.7m / Total Liabilities 2.04b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.43 = A |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 49.6k/29.2m, Revenue 2.82b/3.14b) |
| GMI: 0.51 (GM 16.46% / 32.03%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 0.90 (Revenue 2.82b / 3.14b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 18.1m - CFO 218.8m) / TA 2.86b) |
| Beneish M = -4.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 97.27 with a total of 157,619 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.06%, over one month by -16.22%, over three months by -28.66% and over the past year by -22.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 90.80 (which is 6.7% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Hovnanian Enterprises has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.00. Therefore, it is recommended to sell HOV.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 74 | -23.9% |
P/E Trailing = 97.6981
P/E Forward = 13.4953
P/S = 0.2149
P/B = 1.0051
P/EG = 1.9969
Revenue TTM = 2.82b USD
EBIT TTM = 64.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 80.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 934.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 954.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.9m
Net Debt = 696.5m USD (calculated: Debt 954.8m - CCE 258.3m)
Enterprise Value = 1.31b USD (617.2m + Debt 954.8m - CCE 258.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.41 (Ebit TTM 64.4m / Interest Expense TTM 45.7m)
EV/FCF = 6.64x (Enterprise Value 1.31b / FCF TTM 197.8m)
FCF Yield = 15.05% (FCF TTM 197.8m / Enterprise Value 1.31b)
FCF Margin = 7.01% (FCF TTM 197.8m / Revenue TTM 2.82b)
Net Margin = 0.64% (Net Income TTM 18.1m / Revenue TTM 2.82b)
Gross Margin = 32.03% ((Revenue TTM 2.82b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.92b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.12% (prev 14.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.46 (Enterprise Value 1.31b / Total Assets 2.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.78% (Interest Expense 45.7m / Debt 954.8m)
Taxrate = 21.55% (4.78m / 22.2m)
NOPAT = 50.5m (EBIT 64.4m * (1 - 21.55%))
Current Ratio = 2.34 (Total Current Assets 2.05b / Total Current Liabilities 876.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.17 (Debt 954.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 818.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.67 (Net Debt 696.5m / EBITDA 80.3m)
Debt / FCF = 3.52 (Net Debt 696.5m / FCF TTM 197.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 827.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.66% (Net Income 18.1m / Total Assets 2.86b)
RoE = 2.19% (Net Income TTM 18.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 827.6m)
RoCE = 3.65% (EBIT 64.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 827.6m + L.T.Debt 934.9m))
RoIC = 2.73% (NOPAT 50.5m / Invested Capital 1.85b)
WACC = 6.58% (E(617.2m)/V(1.57b) * Re(10.96%) + D(954.8m)/V(1.57b) * Rd(4.78%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -84.48 | Cagr: -3.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈164.1m ; Y1≈188.1m ; Y5≈276.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 677.4 (EV 4.17b - Net Debt 696.5m = Equity 3.47b / Shares 5.12m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -81.76 | EPS CAGR: -53.43% | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 31.62 | Revenue CAGR: 1.41% | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-01-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=3.99 | Chg30d=+216.67% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-46.3% | GrowthRev=-4.9%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=2.15 | Chg30d=+162.32% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-46.1% | GrowthRev=+4.5%