HOV Stock Analysis: Hovnanian Enterprises | NYSE
Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 745m USD | 12M Return: 10% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 16.4M
EPS Trend: -70.2%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 66.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. is a U.S.-based homebuilder founded in 1959 and headquartered in Matawan, New Jersey. Operating as a public company on the NYSE under the ticker HOV since its 1992 IPO, the company designs, constructs, markets, and sells residential homes nationwide through its subsidiaries, with a product range that includes single-family detached homes, attached townhomes, condominiums, urban infill projects, and active-lifestyle communities featuring amenities such as clubhouses, pools, tennis courts, and open spaces.
The company targets multiple buyer segments, including first-time, move-up, luxury, active-lifestyle, and empty-nester buyers, and supplements its core homebuilding operations with mortgage lending and title services. Hovnanian operates within the Consumer Discretionary sector (GICS sub-industry: Homebuilding), a cyclical industry whose demand is closely tied to mortgage interest rates, consumer confidence, and broader housing market conditions. The integration of mortgage and title services is a common vertical-integration strategy among U.S. public homebuilders, aimed at improving the home-buying experience and capturing additional revenue from each transaction.
- Mortgage rate declines boost home order growth and buyer affordability
- High leverage amplifies refinancing risk as interest rates stay elevated
- Land acquisition strategy underpins future home closings and revenue pipeline
| Net Income: 36.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 48.51% < 20% (prev 45.37%; Δ 3.14% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 295.6m > Net Income 36.5m |
| Net Debt (643.6m) to EBITDA (107.7m): 5.97 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (6.45m) vs 12m ago -7.16% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.47% > 18% (prev 17.88%; Δ 13.59% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 108.4% > 50% (prev 119.9%; Δ -11.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 92.4m / Interest Expense TTM 41.4m) |
| A: 0.50 (Total Current Assets 2.09b - Total Current Liabilities 676.2m) / Total Assets 2.83b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 142.6m / Total Assets 2.83b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 92.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.69b) |
| D: 0.41 (Book Value of Equity 824.9m / Total Liabilities 2.00b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.11 = AA |
| DSRI: 2.01 (Receivables 47.4m/24.7m, Revenue 2.92b/3.06b) |
| GMI: 0.57 (GM 17.88% / 31.47%) |
| AQI: 1.24 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.19) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 2.92b / 3.06b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 36.5m - CFO 295.6m) / TA 2.83b) |
| Beneish M = -2.49 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 128.76 with a total of 117,703 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.31%, over one month by +7.43%, over three months by +16.97% and over the past year by +10.02%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 120.40 (which is 6.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Hovnanian Enterprises has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HOV.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 74 | -42.5% |
P/E Trailing = 35.205
P/E Forward = 13.4953
P/S = 0.2552
P/B = 1.1431
P/EG = 1.9969
Revenue TTM = 2.92b USD
EBIT TTM = 92.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 107.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 934.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.13m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 954.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.9m
Net Debt = 643.6m USD (calculated: Debt 954.5m - CCE 310.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.39b USD (744.7m + Debt 954.5m - CCE 310.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.23 (Ebit TTM 92.4m / Interest Expense TTM 41.4m)
EV/FCF = 5.11x (Enterprise Value 1.39b / FCF TTM 271.4m)
FCF Yield = 19.55% (FCF TTM 271.4m / Enterprise Value 1.39b)
FCF Margin = 9.30% (FCF TTM 271.4m / Revenue TTM 2.92b)
Net Margin = 1.25% (Net Income TTM 36.5m / Revenue TTM 2.92b)
Gross Margin = 31.47% ((Revenue TTM 2.92b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.75% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.49 (Enterprise Value 1.39b / Total Assets 2.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.34% (Interest Expense 41.4m / Debt 954.5m)
Taxrate = 25.70% (12.5m / 48.7m)
NOPAT = 68.7m (EBIT 92.4m * (1 - 25.70%))
Current Ratio = 3.09 (Total Current Assets 2.09b / Total Current Liabilities 676.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.16 (Debt 954.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 824.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.97 (Net Debt 643.6m / EBITDA 107.7m)
Debt / FCF = 2.37 (Net Debt 643.6m / FCF TTM 271.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 831.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.36% (Net Income 36.5m / Total Assets 2.83b)
RoE = 4.39% (Net Income TTM 36.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 831.7m)
RoCE = 5.23% (EBIT 92.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 831.7m + L.T.Debt 934.6m))
RoIC = 3.41% (NOPAT 68.7m / Invested Capital 2.01b)
WACC = 7.13% (E(744.7m)/V(1.70b) * Re(12.14%) + D(954.5m)/V(1.70b) * Rd(4.34%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 12.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -78.89 | Cagr: -3.16%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈271.4m ; Y1≈272.5m ; Y5≈288.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 758.5 (EV 4.49b - Net Debt 643.6m = Equity 3.85b / Shares 5.07m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -70.16 | EPS CAGR: -34.58% | SUE: 1.07 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 66.08 | Revenue CAGR: 3.17% | SUE: 1.78 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=-0.56 | Chg30d=+66.27% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=1.26 | Chg30d=+227.27% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-83.0% | GrowthRev=-5.8%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=-3.45 | Chg30d=+7.26% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-373.8% | GrowthRev=+2.7%