HRI Stock Analysis: Herc Holdings | NYSE

Aerial Equipment, Earthmoving Equipment, Material Handling, Power Generation

Total Rating 45

Safety 66

Buy Signal -0.54

Rental & Leasing Services
Industry Rotation: +10.8

Market Cap: 4.48B
Avg Turnover: 101M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility56.9%

VaR 5^th Pctl9.14%

VaR vs Median-2.58%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.44

Rel. Str. IBD70

Rel. Str. Peer Group41.4

Character TTM

Beta2.302

Beta Downside2.282

Hurst Exponent0.466

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD60.90%

CAGR/Max DD0.17

CAGR/Mean DD0.38

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -23.95%
EPS Trend: -86.3%

Last SUE: 1.62
Qual. Beats: 2

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 16.21%
Rev. Trend: 96.0%

Last SUE: 2.30
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

P/E Ratio 78.3

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +0.9% 19

Feb -0.3% 17

Mar -4.6% 20

Apr -5.7% 30

May +1.2% 11

Jun +3.6% 5

Jul +0.6% 5

Aug -3.5% 34

Sep +0.7% 0

Oct -1.7% 0

Nov +12.3% 56

Dec +1.2% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: HRI Herc Holdings

Herc Holdings Inc. is a leading equipment rental supplier operating in the United States and internationally, offering a broad inventory that includes aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company complements its core rental business with ProSolutions (specialized offerings such as power generation, climate control, remediation, pump, trench shoring, and studio/production equipment) and ProContractor professional-grade tools, along with value-added services like repair, maintenance, equipment management, safety training, on-site support, and ancillary offerings such as transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor.

In addition to rentals, Herc sells used equipment and contractor supplies (construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies). Its customer base spans non-residential and residential construction, specialty trades, restoration/remediation, facility maintenance, industrial manufacturing (refineries, petrochemical, automotive, aerospace, power, metals/mining, agriculture, pulp/paper, food/beverage), infrastructure, government, and commercial end-markets such as warehousing, education, healthcare, data centers, hospitality, retail, and events. Products are distributed through its direct sales team, industry catalogs, trade shows, and online channels. The company was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Bonita Springs, Florida.

The equipment rental industry is classified within the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry of the Industrials sector, and operates on an asset-heavy, rental-based model that generates recurring revenue streams tied largely to non-residential construction and industrial activity, which tend to be cyclical in nature.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Non-residential construction spending drives equipment rental volumes
Used equipment sales and fleet utilization expand gross margins
Fleet capex and rate exposure pressure free cash flow

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5

Net Income: 49.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.33 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 1.83% < 20% (prev 3.31%; Δ -1.47% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 846.0m > Net Income 49.0m
Net Debt (11.1b) to EBITDA (1.11b): 9.93 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.5m) vs 12m ago 11.67% < -2%
Gross Margin: 28.93% > 18% (prev 36.23%; Δ -7.29% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 35.02% > 50% (prev 26.96%; Δ 8.06% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 578.0m / Interest Expense TTM 522.0m)

Altman Z'' 0.61

A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 960.0m - Total Current Liabilities 871.0m) / Total Assets 13.7b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 496.0m / Total Assets 13.7b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 578.0m / Avg Total Assets 13.9b)
D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 1.89b / Total Liabilities 11.8b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.61 = B

Beneish M -2.78

DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 805.0m/778.0m, Revenue 4.86b/3.78b)
GMI: 1.25 (GM 36.23% / 28.93%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.34)
SGI: 1.28 (Revenue 4.86b / 3.78b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 49.0m - CFO 846.0m) / TA 13.7b)
Beneish M = -2.78 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of HRI shares?

As of October 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 138.37 with a total of 519,837 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.22%, over one month by +0.44%, over three months by +3.08% and over the past year by +14.01%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 118.30 (which is 14.5% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).

Is HRI a buy, sell or hold?

Herc Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.90. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HRI.

StrongBuy: 4
Buy: 2
Hold: 3
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the HRI price?

Analysts Target Price	189.1	36.6%

Herc Holdings (HRI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 4.48b (4.48b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 78.3041
P/E Forward = 12.2249
P/S = 0.9218
P/B = 2.4274
P/EG = 0.0439
Revenue TTM = 4.86b USD
EBIT TTM = 578.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.11b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.88b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 89.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.65b
Net Debt = 11.1b USD (calculated: Debt 11.1b - CCE 43.0m)
Enterprise Value = 15.5b USD (4.48b + Debt 11.1b - CCE 43.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.11 (Ebit TTM 578.0m / Interest Expense TTM 522.0m)
EV/FCF = 167.1x (Enterprise Value 15.5b / FCF TTM 93.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.60% (FCF TTM 93.0m / Enterprise Value 15.5b)
FCF Margin = 1.92% (FCF TTM 93.0m / Revenue TTM 4.86b)
Net Margin = 1.01% (Net Income TTM 49.0m / Revenue TTM 4.86b)
Gross Margin = 28.93% ((Revenue TTM 4.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.45b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.31% (prev 28.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.13 (Enterprise Value 15.5b / Total Assets 13.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.70% (Interest Expense 522.0m / Debt 11.1b)
Taxrate = 12.50% (7.00m / 56.0m)
NOPAT = 505.8m (EBIT 578.0m * (1 - 12.50%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 960.0m / Total Current Liabilities 871.0m)
Debt / Equity = 5.88 (Debt 11.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.89b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.93 (Net Debt 11.1b / EBITDA 1.11b)
Debt / FCF = 119.0 (Net Debt 11.1b / FCF TTM 93.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.92b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.35% (Net Income 49.0m / Total Assets 13.7b)
RoE = 2.56% (Net Income TTM 49.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.92b)
RoCE = 5.90% (EBIT 578.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.92b + L.T.Debt 7.88b))
RoIC = 3.92% (NOPAT 505.8m / Invested Capital 12.9b)
WACC = 6.97% (E(4.48b)/V(15.6b) * Re(14.08%) + D(11.1b)/V(15.6b) * Rd(4.70%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 14.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.09 | Cagr: 7.62%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈93.0m ; Y1≈93.4m ; Y5≈98.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.54b - Net Debt 11.1b = -9.53b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -86.34 | EPS CAGR: -23.95% | SUE: 1.62 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.03 | Revenue CAGR: 16.21% | SUE: 2.30 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.98 | Chg30d=-2.70% | Revisions=+22% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.44 | Chg30d=-0.52% | Revisions=+73% | GrowthEPS=-2.2% | GrowthRev=+13.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.93 | Chg30d=+7.73% | Revisions=+42% | GrowthEPS=+46.9% | GrowthRev=+8.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +58% (up=19, down=4)