HRI Stock Analysis: Herc Holdings | NYSE

Rental & Leasing Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.781m USD | 12M Return: 31.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Aerial Equipment, Earthmoving Equipment, Material Handling, Power Generation
Total Rating 50
Safety 59
Buy Signal 0.13
Rental & Leasing Services
Industry Rotation: -17.6
Market Cap: 4.78B
Avg Turnover: 77.4M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility57.9%
VaR 5th Pctl9.40%
VaR vs Median-1.38%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.68
Rel. Str. IBD65.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group60.9
Character TTM
Beta2.098
Beta Downside2.225
Hurst Exponent0.455
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD60.90%
CAGR/Max DD0.10
CAGR/Mean DD0.24
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of HRI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.57, "2021-09": 2.38, "2021-12": 2.46, "2022-03": 1.95, "2022-06": 2.47, "2022-09": 3.42, "2022-12": 3.44, "2023-03": 2.35, "2023-06": 2.69, "2023-09": 4, "2023-12": 3.24, "2024-03": 2.36, "2024-06": 2.6, "2024-09": 4.35, "2024-12": 3.58, "2025-03": 1.3, "2025-06": 1.87, "2025-09": 2.22, "2025-12": 2.07, "2026-03": 0.21, "2026-06": 1.43,
EPS CAGR: -23.95%
EPS Trend: -86.3%
Last SUE: 1.62
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of HRI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 490.9, 2021-09: 550.4, 2021-12: 578, 2022-03: 568, 2022-06: 640, 2022-09: 745, 2022-12: 787, 2023-03: 740, 2023-06: 802, 2023-09: 908, 2023-12: 832, 2024-03: 804, 2024-06: 848, 2024-09: 965, 2024-12: 951, 2025-03: 861, 2025-06: 1002, 2025-09: 1304, 2025-12: 1209, 2026-03: 1139, 2026-06: 1204,
Rev. CAGR: 16.21%
Rev. Trend: 96.0%
Last SUE: 2.30
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +0.9% 19
Feb -0.3% 17
Mar -4.6% 20
Apr -5.7% 30
May +1.2% 11
Jun +3.6% 5
Jul +0.6% 5
Aug -4.5% 33
Sep +0.7% 0
Oct -1.7% 0
Nov +12.3% 56
Dec +1.2% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: HRI Herc Holdings

Herc Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRI) is an equipment rental supplier operating in the United States and internationally. Founded in 1965 and headquartered in Bonita Springs, Florida, the company rents a broad range of equipment, including aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The equipment rental industry is generally tied to non-residential construction, industrial activity, and infrastructure spending, which tend to be cyclical.

In addition to core rentals, Herc offers ProSolutions, a suite of specialty solutions spanning power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pumping, trench shoring, and studio and production equipment, alongside ProContractor professional-grade tools. The company also provides repair, maintenance, equipment management, safety training, re-rental, and on-site support, plus ancillary services such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor. It also sells used equipment and contractor supplies.

Hercs customer base spans non-residential and residential construction, specialty trades, restoration, remediation, environmental services, and facility maintenance contractors, as well as industrial sectors (refineries and petrochemical, automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp/paper/wood, food and beverage), infrastructure and government, and commercial end markets such as warehousing, education, healthcare, data centers, hospitality, retail, and special events. Distribution is handled through an internal sales team, industry catalogs, and participation in trade shows and online channels. HRI is classified under the Industrials sector (Trading Companies & Distributors) and trades as a mid-cap stock, having IPOd in July 2016.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Non-residential construction demand lifts fleet utilization rates
  • Used equipment sales boost gross margins amid tight supply
  • H&E integration drives scale and pricing synergies
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: 49.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.33 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 1.83% < 20% (prev 3.31%; Δ -1.47% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 846.0m > Net Income 49.0m
Net Debt (11.1b) to EBITDA (1.11b): 9.93 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.5m) vs 12m ago 11.67% < -2%
Gross Margin: 28.93% > 18% (prev 36.23%; Δ -7.29% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 35.02% > 50% (prev 26.96%; Δ 8.06% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 578.0m / Interest Expense TTM 522.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.61
A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 960.0m - Total Current Liabilities 871.0m) / Total Assets 13.7b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 496.0m / Total Assets 13.7b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 578.0m / Avg Total Assets 13.9b)
D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 1.89b / Total Liabilities 11.8b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.61 = B
Beneish M -2.78
DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 805.0m/778.0m, Revenue 4.86b/3.78b)
GMI: 1.25 (GM 36.23% / 28.93%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.34)
SGI: 1.28 (Revenue 4.86b / 3.78b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 49.0m - CFO 846.0m) / TA 13.7b)
Beneish M = -2.78 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of HRI shares?

As of August 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 150.14 with a total of 324,773 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.66%, over one month by +4.74%, over three months by +18.90% and over the past year by +31.16%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 135.00 (which is 10.1% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).

Is HRI a buy, sell or hold?

Herc Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.90. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HRI.

  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the HRI price?
Analysts Target Price 174.8 16.4%
Herc Holdings (HRI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 31 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 4.78b (4.78b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 18.018
P/S = 0.9846
P/B = 2.6081
P/EG = 0.0652
Revenue TTM = 4.86b USD
EBIT TTM = 578.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.11b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.88b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 89.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.65b
Net Debt = 11.1b USD (calculated: Debt 11.1b - CCE 43.0m)
Enterprise Value = 15.8b USD (4.78b + Debt 11.1b - CCE 43.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.11 (Ebit TTM 578.0m / Interest Expense TTM 522.0m)
EV/FCF = 170.4x (Enterprise Value 15.8b / FCF TTM 93.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.59% (FCF TTM 93.0m / Enterprise Value 15.8b)
FCF Margin = 1.92% (FCF TTM 93.0m / Revenue TTM 4.86b)
Net Margin = 1.01% (Net Income TTM 49.0m / Revenue TTM 4.86b)
Gross Margin = 28.93% ((Revenue TTM 4.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.45b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.31% (prev 28.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.16 (Enterprise Value 15.8b / Total Assets 13.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.70% (Interest Expense 522.0m / Debt 11.1b)
Taxrate = 12.50% (7.00m / 56.0m)
NOPAT = 505.8m (EBIT 578.0m * (1 - 12.50%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 960.0m / Total Current Liabilities 871.0m)
Debt / Equity = 5.88 (Debt 11.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.89b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.93 (Net Debt 11.1b / EBITDA 1.11b)
Debt / FCF = 119.0 (Net Debt 11.1b / FCF TTM 93.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.92b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.35% (Net Income 49.0m / Total Assets 13.7b)
RoE = 2.56% (Net Income TTM 49.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.92b)
RoCE = 5.90% (EBIT 578.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.92b + L.T.Debt 7.88b))
RoIC = 3.92% (NOPAT 505.8m / Invested Capital 12.9b)
WACC = 6.89% (E(4.78b)/V(15.9b) * Re(13.36%) + D(11.1b)/V(15.9b) * Rd(4.70%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 13.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.09 | Cagr: 7.62%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈93.0m ; Y1≈93.4m ; Y5≈98.9m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.54b - Net Debt 11.1b = -9.53b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: -86.34 | EPS CAGR: -23.95% | SUE: 1.62 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.03 | Revenue CAGR: 16.21% | SUE: 2.30 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.30 | Chg30d=+21.27% | Revisions=-44% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.70 | Chg30d=+9.28% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-12.0% | GrowthRev=+6.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.85 | Chg30d=-0.63% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+47.1% | GrowthRev=+9.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -44% (up=1, down=5)