HRI Stock Analysis: Herc Holdings | NYSE

Aerial Equipment, Earthmoving Equipment, Material Handling, Power Generation

Total Rating 43

Safety 64

Buy Signal 0.02

Rental & Leasing Services
Industry Rotation: +6.5

Market Cap: 5.56B
Avg Turnover: 90.3M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility58.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl9.13%

VaR vs Median-4.64%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.60

Rel. Str. IBD83.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group67.9 pctl

Character TTM

Beta2.231

Beta Downside2.360

Hurst Exponent0.472

Choppyness50.8%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD60.90%

CAGR/Max DD0.29

CAGR/Mean DD0.62

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -24.52%
EPS Trend: -87.6%

Last SUE: 1.69
Qual. Beats: 3

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 17.73%
Rev. Trend: 97.4%

Last SUE: 0.51
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Extended 1w

Tailwinds

Seasonal Tailwind

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +0.9% 19

Feb -0.3% 17

Mar -4.6% 20

Apr -5.7% 30

May +1.2% 11

Jun +3.6% 5

Jul +0.6% 5

Aug -3.5% 33

Sep -0.7% 10

Oct -1.7% 0

Nov +12.3% 56

Dec +1.2% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: HRI Herc Holdings

Herc Holdings Inc. is a leading equipment rental supplier operating in the United States and internationally, offering a broad inventory that includes aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company complements its core rental business with ProSolutions (specialized offerings such as power generation, climate control, remediation, pump, trench shoring, and studio/production equipment) and ProContractor professional-grade tools, along with value-added services like repair, maintenance, equipment management, safety training, on-site support, and ancillary offerings such as transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor.

In addition to rentals, Herc sells used equipment and contractor supplies (construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies). Its customer base spans non-residential and residential construction, specialty trades, restoration/remediation, facility maintenance, industrial manufacturing (refineries, petrochemical, automotive, aerospace, power, metals/mining, agriculture, pulp/paper, food/beverage), infrastructure, government, and commercial end-markets such as warehousing, education, healthcare, data centers, hospitality, retail, and events. Products are distributed through its direct sales team, industry catalogs, trade shows, and online channels. The company was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Bonita Springs, Florida.

The equipment rental industry is classified within the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry of the Industrials sector, and operates on an asset-heavy, rental-based model that generates recurring revenue streams tied largely to non-residential construction and industrial activity, which tend to be cyclical in nature.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Non-residential construction spending drives equipment rental volumes
Used equipment sales and fleet utilization expand gross margins
Fleet capex and rate exposure pressure free cash flow

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5

Net Income: 123.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.53 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 1.59% < 20% (prev 4.20%; Δ -2.61% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 848.0m > Net Income 123.0m
Net Debt (11.2b) to EBITDA (1.94b): 5.79 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.08 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.5m) vs 12m ago 0.60% < -2%
Gross Margin: 25.98% > 18% (prev 33.00%; Δ -7.03% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 35.13% > 50% (prev 29.57%; Δ 5.57% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 652.0m / Interest Expense TTM 514.0m)

Altman Z'' 0.66

A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.11b - Total Current Liabilities 1.03b) / Total Assets 14.1b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 576.0m / Total Assets 14.1b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 652.0m / Avg Total Assets 14.0b)
D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 1.98b / Total Liabilities 12.1b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.66 = B

Beneish M -3.03

DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 929.0m/810.0m, Revenue 4.92b/4.12b)
GMI: 1.27 (GM 33.00% / 25.98%)
AQI: 0.42 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.76)
SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 4.92b / 4.12b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 123.0m - CFO 848.0m) / TA 14.1b)
Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of HRI shares?

As of October 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 173.95 with a total of 946,675 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +30.25%, over one month by +36.71%, over three months by +22.23% and over the past year by +25.18%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 162.70 (which is 6.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is HRI a buy, sell or hold?

Herc Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.27. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HRI.

StrongBuy: 6
Buy: 3
Hold: 1
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the HRI price?

Analysts Target Price	199.3	14.5%

Herc Holdings (HRI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 5.56b (5.56b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 44.4305
P/E Forward = 13.9082
P/S = 1.1311
P/B = 2.6322
P/EG = 0.05
Revenue TTM = 4.92b USD
EBIT TTM = 652.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.05b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 91.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.65b
Net Debt = 11.2b USD (calculated: Debt 11.3b - CCE 66.0m)
Enterprise Value = 16.8b USD (5.56b + Debt 11.3b - CCE 66.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.27 (Ebit TTM 652.0m / Interest Expense TTM 514.0m)
EV/FCF = 599.0x (Enterprise Value 16.8b / FCF TTM 28.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.17% (FCF TTM 28.0m / Enterprise Value 16.8b)
FCF Margin = 0.57% (FCF TTM 28.0m / Revenue TTM 4.92b)
Net Margin = 2.50% (Net Income TTM 123.0m / Revenue TTM 4.92b)
Gross Margin = 25.98% ((Revenue TTM 4.92b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.11% (prev 31.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.19 (Enterprise Value 16.8b / Total Assets 14.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.56% (Interest Expense 514.0m / Debt 11.3b)
Taxrate = 3.62% (5.00m / 138.0m)
NOPAT = 628.4m (EBIT 652.0m * (1 - 3.62%))
Current Ratio = 1.08 (Total Current Assets 1.11b / Total Current Liabilities 1.03b)
Debt / Equity = 5.68 (Debt 11.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.98b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.79 (Net Debt 11.2b / EBITDA 1.94b)
Debt / FCF = 400.4 (Net Debt 11.2b / FCF TTM 28.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.93b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.88% (Net Income 123.0m / Total Assets 14.1b)
RoE = 6.37% (Net Income TTM 123.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.93b)
RoCE = 6.53% (EBIT 652.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.93b + L.T.Debt 8.05b))
RoIC = 4.81% (NOPAT 628.4m / Invested Capital 13.1b)
WACC = 7.28% (E(5.56b)/V(16.8b) * Re(13.12%) + D(11.3b)/V(16.8b) * Rd(4.56%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 13.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 12.54%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.77 | Cagr: 7.45%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈28.0m ; Y1≈28.1m ; Y5≈29.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 463.2m - Net Debt 11.2b = -10.7b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -87.62 | EPS CAGR: -24.52% | SUE: 1.69 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 97.38 | Revenue CAGR: 17.73% | SUE: 0.51 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=2.06 | Chg30d=+184.46% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.81 | Chg30d=+18.50% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+15.8% | GrowthRev=+23.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.70 | Chg30d=+7.09% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+32.8% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=5, down=0)