HRL Stock Analysis: Hormel Foods | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 14.588m USD | 12M Return: -13.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 108M
EPS Trend: -95.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 2.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE: HRL) is a U.S.-based packaged foods company that develops, processes, and distributes meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three reporting segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International. The companys product range spans perishable items such as fresh meats, bacon, sausages, hams, and refrigerated meal solutions, as well as shelf-stable offerings including canned luncheon meats, nut butters, chili, and salsas.
Hormel sells its products under a large portfolio of owned brands, including SPAM, SKIPPY, PLANTERS, JENNIE-O, JUSTINS, HERDEZ, and CHI-CHIS, among others, using a mix of sales personnel, independent brokers, and distributors. Founded in 1891 and headquartered in Austin, Minnesota, the company was previously known as Geo. A. Hormel & Company before adopting its current name in January 1995. Within the Consumer Staples sector, the companys business model combines branded packaged food production with multi-channel distribution across retail, foodservice, and international markets, which is typical of large-scale packaged food operators seeking to balance revenue diversification with brand-driven pricing power.
- Pork and turkey commodity costs pressure gross margins
- Planters brand integration drives retail segment revenue growth
- Foodservice volumes recover with rising restaurant traffic
| Net Income: 466.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.84% < 20% (prev 16.39%; Δ -2.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.01b > Net Income 466.8m |
| Net Debt (2.00b) to EBITDA (1.00b): 1.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.94 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (550.8m) vs 12m ago 0.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.72% > 18% (prev 16.51%; Δ -0.80% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 91.30% > 50% (prev 88.84%; Δ 2.46% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 733.9m / Interest Expense TTM 78.6m) |
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 3.49b - Total Current Liabilities 1.80b) / Total Assets 13.3b |
| B: 0.56 (Retained Earnings 7.53b / Total Assets 13.3b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 733.9m / Avg Total Assets 13.4b) |
| D: 1.48 (Book Value of Equity 7.95b / Total Liabilities 5.38b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.59 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 818.8m/794.5m, Revenue 12.2b/11.9b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 16.51% / 15.72%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.58 / AQ_t-1 0.59) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 12.2b / 11.9b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 466.8m - CFO 1.01b) / TA 13.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 24.82 with a total of 4,955,806 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.40%, over one month by +6.30%, over three months by +11.14% and over the past year by -13.86%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 23.70 (which is 4.5% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).
Hormel Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.40. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HRL.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 26.5 | 6.8% |
P/E Trailing = 31.1882
P/E Forward = 17.7936
P/S = 1.194
P/B = 1.8352
P/EG = 1.9276
Revenue TTM = 12.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 733.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.00b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.35b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 505.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.86b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.00b USD (calculated: Debt 2.86b - CCE 859.9m)
Enterprise Value = 16.6b USD (14.6b + Debt 2.86b - CCE 859.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.34 (Ebit TTM 733.9m / Interest Expense TTM 78.6m)
EV/FCF = 23.93x (Enterprise Value 16.6b / FCF TTM 692.9m)
FCF Yield = 4.18% (FCF TTM 692.9m / Enterprise Value 16.6b)
FCF Margin = 5.67% (FCF TTM 692.9m / Revenue TTM 12.2b)
Net Margin = 3.82% (Net Income TTM 466.8m / Revenue TTM 12.2b)
Gross Margin = 15.72% ((Revenue TTM 12.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.44% (prev 15.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 16.6b / Total Assets 13.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.75% (Interest Expense 78.6m / Debt 2.86b)
Taxrate = 28.79% (188.6m / 655.3m)
NOPAT = 522.6m (EBIT 733.9m * (1 - 28.79%))
Current Ratio = 1.94 (Total Current Assets 3.49b / Total Current Liabilities 1.80b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 2.86b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.95b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.99 (Net Debt 2.00b / EBITDA 1.00b)
Debt / FCF = 2.88 (Net Debt 2.00b / FCF TTM 692.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.97b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.49% (Net Income 466.8m / Total Assets 13.3b)
RoE = 5.86% (Net Income TTM 466.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.97b)
RoCE = 7.11% (EBIT 733.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.97b + L.T.Debt 2.35b))
RoIC = 4.57% (NOPAT 522.6m / Invested Capital 11.4b)
WACC = 5.27% (E(14.6b)/V(17.4b) * Re(5.92%) + D(2.86b)/V(17.4b) * Rd(2.75%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 5.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.11 | Cagr: 0.23%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.39% ; FCFF base≈694.1m ; Y1≈694.6m ; Y5≈730.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 17.04 (EV 11.4b - Net Debt 2.00b = Equity 9.38b / Shares 550.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -0.40% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -95.85 | EPS CAGR: -7.51% | SUE: 1.80 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 2.80 | Revenue CAGR: 0.03% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=-4.84% | Revisions=-45% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-10-31): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=+2.11% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=+9.0% | GrowthRev=+1.6%
EPS next Year (2027-10-31): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=+1.01% | Revisions=+9% | GrowthEPS=+4.5% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +60%