(HRTG) Heritage Insurance Hldgs - Ratings and Ratios
Personal Residential, Commercial Residential, Homeowners, Condo, Dwelling Fire
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 65.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 89.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.70% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.79 |
| Alpha | 142.92 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.60 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.327 |
| Beta | 0.346 |
| Beta Downside | 0.327 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.90% |
| Mean DD | 16.63% |
| Median DD | 14.96% |
Description: HRTG Heritage Insurance Hldgs December 25, 2025
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) writes personal and commercial residential property insurance through a network of independent agents, covering 16 states for personal lines (including high-exposure markets such as Florida, California, and New York) and three states for commercial residential property (Florida, New Jersey, New York). Its product suite includes homeowners, condo, dwelling-fire, equipment coverage, and an artisan-contractor program.
As of the most recent filing (2023 12-month), the company reported net written premiums of roughly **$1.2 billion**, a **combined ratio of 92%**, and a **return on equity (ROE) near 8%**-all modestly above the industry median for midsize P&C carriers, but still vulnerable to loss spikes from catastrophic events.
Key drivers of Heritage’s performance are: (1) **catastrophe exposure**, especially hurricane activity in Florida, which can swing loss ratios by 10-15 percentage points in a single season; (2) **investment income**, which is sensitive to the current high-interest-rate environment and the steepening yield curve; and (3) **regulatory capital requirements**, where state-level solvency standards can affect growth capacity in new markets.
For a data-rich, side-by-side comparison of Heritage’s valuation metrics against peers, you might find the analytics on ValueRay worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (149.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 50.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -5.29pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 76.83% (prev 27.03%; Δ 49.80pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 (>3.0%) and CFO 112.4m <= Net Income 149.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-458.8m) to EBITDA (221.1m) ratio: -2.07 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 765.9 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (30.9m) change vs 12m ago 0.66% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 35.71% (prev 22.58%; Δ 13.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 35.53% (prev 33.95%; Δ 1.58pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 23.95 (EBITDA TTM 221.1m / Interest Expense TTM 8.72m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.79
| (A) 0.27 = (Total Current Assets 648.0m - Total Current Liabilities 846.0k) / Total Assets 2.37b |
| (B) 0.09 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 216.6m / Total Assets 2.37b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 209.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.37b |
| (D) 0.11 = Book Value of Equity 203.6m / Total Liabilities 1.93b |
| Total Rating: 2.79 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 88.30
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 31.51% |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.03% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.23 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -2.07 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 27.15)% |
| 7. RoE 41.44% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.08% |
| 9. EPS Trend 67.28% |
What is the price of HRTG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.15%, over one month by +5.42%, over three months by +21.01% and over the past year by +141.72%.
Is HRTG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HRTG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.5 | 19.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.5 | 19.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 38.9 | 30.7% |
HRTG Fundamental Data Overview December 19, 2025
P/E Trailing = 6.0205
P/S = 1.0842
P/B = 2.0551
Beta = 0.959
Revenue TTM = 842.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 209.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 221.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.25m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 75.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 101.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -458.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 348.4m USD (913.2m + Debt 101.7m - CCE 666.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.95 (Ebit TTM 209.0m / Interest Expense TTM 8.72m)
FCF Yield = 31.51% (FCF TTM 109.8m / Enterprise Value 348.4m)
FCF Margin = 13.03% (FCF TTM 109.8m / Revenue TTM 842.3m)
Net Margin = 17.72% (Net Income TTM 149.2m / Revenue TTM 842.3m)
Gross Margin = 35.71% ((Revenue TTM 842.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 541.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.54% (prev 42.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.15 (Enterprise Value 348.4m / Total Assets 2.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.82% (Interest Expense 1.85m / Debt 101.7m)
Taxrate = 26.19% (17.9m / 68.3m)
NOPAT = 154.2m (EBIT 209.0m * (1 - 26.19%))
Current Ratio = 765.9 (out of range, set to none) (Total Current Assets 648.0m / Total Current Liabilities 846.0k)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 101.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 437.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.07 (Net Debt -458.8m / EBITDA 221.1m)
Debt / FCF = -4.18 (Net Debt -458.8m / FCF TTM 109.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 360.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.30% (Net Income 149.2m / Total Assets 2.37b)
RoE = 41.44% (Net Income TTM 149.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 360.1m)
RoCE = 57.36% (EBIT 209.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 360.1m + L.T.Debt 4.25m))
RoIC = 33.84% (NOPAT 154.2m / Invested Capital 455.8m)
WACC = 6.69% (E(913.2m)/V(1.01b) * Re(7.29%) + D(101.7m)/V(1.01b) * Rd(1.82%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈160.2m ; Y1≈105.2m ; Y5≈48.1m
Fair Price DCF = 30.59 (DCF Value 945.4m / Shares Outstanding 30.9m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 67.28 | EPS CAGR: 44.49% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 96.08 | Revenue CAGR: 6.68% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.30 | Chg30d=+0.267 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=-15.2% | Growth Revenue=+7.3%
Additional Sources for HRTG Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle