HRTG Stock Analysis: Heritage Insurance Hldgs | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 821m USD | 12M Return: 21.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.0M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 69.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) is a property and casualty insurer headquartered in Tampa, Florida, founded in 2012 and publicly listed on the NYSE since 2014. The company provides personal and commercial residential insurance products across 16 states, with its geographic footprint heavily concentrated in catastrophe-exposed coastal markets including Florida, California, and the Northeast.
Its product lineup centers on homeowners insurance and related residential coverages such as condo, dwelling fire, equipment breakdown, and an artisan contractor program. Distribution is conducted through a network of independent agents, a standard channel within the U.S. personal lines insurance industry that allows carriers to reach customers without maintaining captive agent sales forces.
As a small-cap issuer within the Financials sector, HRTG operates in a highly regulated industry where state-level insurance regulators oversee rate filings, policy forms, and capital adequacy. Residential property insurers in coastal states typically face elevated reinsurance costs and catastrophe-loss volatility tied to hurricanes and other severe weather events.
- Florida hurricane losses pressure combined ratios
- Geographic expansion outside Florida reduces catastrophe concentration
- Reinsurance treaty pricing impacts net retention and margins
| Net Income: 201.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.61 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -35.75% < 20% (prev -45.76%; Δ 10.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 206.3m > Net Income 201.6m |
| Net Debt (-504.6m) to EBITDA (288.5m): -1.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (30.7m) vs 12m ago -0.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.16% > 18% (prev 24.21%; Δ 26.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 36.63% > 50% (prev 37.83%; Δ -1.19% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 38.06 > 6 (EBIT TTM 275.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.24m) |
| A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 1.20b - Total Current Liabilities 1.47b) / Total Assets 2.02b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 319.7m / Total Assets 2.02b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 275.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.12b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 520.4m / Total Liabilities 1.50b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.85 = B |
| DSRI: 0.55 (Receivables 361.4m/707.6m, Revenue 775.6m/837.2m) |
| GMI: 0.47 (GM 24.21% / 51.16%) |
| AQI: 1.22 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.31) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 775.6m / 837.2m) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 201.6m - CFO 206.3m) / TA 2.02b) |
| Beneish M = -3.79 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 27.12 with a total of 218,286 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.16%, over one month by +25.44%, over three months by +0.22% and over the past year by +21.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 25.90 (which is 4.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Heritage Insurance Hldgs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HRTG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 31.5 | 16.2% |
P/E Trailing = 4.1595
P/S = 0.9676
P/B = 1.5778
Revenue TTM = 775.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 275.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 288.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.49m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 73.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 120.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.4m
Net Debt = -504.6m USD (calculated: Debt 120.5m - CCE 625.1m)
Enterprise Value = 316.4m USD (821.0m + Debt 120.5m - CCE 625.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 38.06 (Ebit TTM 275.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.24m)
EV/FCF = 1.58x (Enterprise Value 316.4m / FCF TTM 200.8m)
FCF Yield = 63.46% (FCF TTM 200.8m / Enterprise Value 316.4m)
FCF Margin = 25.89% (FCF TTM 200.8m / Revenue TTM 775.6m)
Net Margin = 25.99% (Net Income TTM 201.6m / Revenue TTM 775.6m)
Gross Margin = 51.16% ((Revenue TTM 775.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 378.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.93% (prev 65.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.16 (Enterprise Value 316.4m / Total Assets 2.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.01% (Interest Expense 7.24m / Debt 120.5m)
Taxrate = 24.86% (66.7m / 268.3m)
NOPAT = 207.0m (EBIT 275.5m * (1 - 24.86%))
Current Ratio = 0.81 (Total Current Assets 1.20b / Total Current Liabilities 1.47b)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 120.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 520.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.75 (Net Debt -504.6m / EBITDA 288.5m)
Debt / FCF = -2.51 (Net Debt -504.6m / FCF TTM 200.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 461.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.52% (Net Income 201.6m / Total Assets 2.02b)
RoE = 43.68% (Net Income TTM 201.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 461.5m)
RoCE = 59.12% (EBIT 275.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 461.5m + L.T.Debt 4.49m))
RoIC = 35.65% (NOPAT 207.0m / Invested Capital 580.7m)
WACC = 9.18% (E(821.0m)/V(941.5m) * Re(9.87%) + D(120.5m)/V(941.5m) * Rd(6.01%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 68.89 | Cagr: 6.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.31% ; FCFF base≈149.9m ; Y1≈171.8m ; Y5≈252.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 126.3 (EV 3.32b - Net Debt -504.6m = Equity 3.82b / Shares 30.3m; r=9.18% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.73 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 69.06 | Revenue CAGR: 4.86% | SUE: -0.44 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.20 | Chg30d=+1.70% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=+7.06% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.32 | Chg30d=+1.97% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-31.0% | GrowthRev=+1.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.73 | Chg30d=+3.27% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+9.7% | GrowthRev=+4.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -53% (up=2, down=10)