HRTG Stock Analysis: Heritage Insurance Hldgs | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.000m USD | 12M Return: 55.4% | US42727J1025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.3M
EPS Trend: 96.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 47.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) is a property and casualty insurer headquartered in Tampa, Florida, founded in 2012 and publicly listed on the NYSE since 2014. The company provides personal and commercial residential insurance products across 16 states, with its geographic footprint heavily concentrated in catastrophe-exposed coastal markets including Florida, California, and the Northeast.
Its product lineup centers on homeowners insurance and related residential coverages such as condo, dwelling fire, equipment breakdown, and an artisan contractor program. Distribution is conducted through a network of independent agents, a standard channel within the U.S. personal lines insurance industry that allows carriers to reach customers without maintaining captive agent sales forces.
As a small-cap issuer within the Financials sector, HRTG operates in a highly regulated industry where state-level insurance regulators oversee rate filings, policy forms, and capital adequacy. Residential property insurers in coastal states typically face elevated reinsurance costs and catastrophe-loss volatility tied to hurricanes and other severe weather events.
- Florida hurricane losses pressure combined ratios
- Geographic expansion outside Florida reduces catastrophe concentration
- Reinsurance treaty pricing impacts net retention and margins
| Net Income: 215.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.47% < 20% (prev -41.54%; Δ 38.07% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 304.7m > Net Income 215.3m |
| Net Debt (-547.2m) to EBITDA (307.4m): -1.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.98 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (30.1m) vs 12m ago -2.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 58.93% > 18% (prev 28.70%; Δ 30.23% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.38% > 50% (prev 33.18%; Δ -1.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 41.78 > 6 (EBIT TTM 294.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.05m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.45b - Total Current Liabilities 1.47b) / Total Assets 2.45b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 381.4m / Total Assets 2.45b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 294.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.49b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 567.7m / Total Liabilities 1.88b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.55 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.16 (Receivables 94.0m/648.4m, Revenue 781.7m/841.7m) |
| GMI: 0.49 (GM 28.70% / 58.93%) |
| AQI: 1.38 (AQ_t 0.39 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 781.7m / 841.7m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 215.3m - CFO 304.7m) / TA 2.45b) |
| Beneish M = -4.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of August 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 34.59 with a total of 295,497 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.35%, over one month by +28.77%, over three months by +49.67% and over the past year by +55.44%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 33.10 (which is 4.3% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Heritage Insurance Hldgs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HRTG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 39 | 12.7% |
P/E Trailing = 4.7567
P/S = 1.17
P/B = 1.7455
Revenue TTM = 781.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 294.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 307.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.37m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 4.09m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 112.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 20.5m
Net Debt = -547.2m USD (calculated: Debt 112.4m - CCE 659.6m)
Enterprise Value = 452.7m USD (999.9m + Debt 112.4m - CCE 659.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 41.78 (Ebit TTM 294.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.05m)
EV/FCF = 2.13x (Enterprise Value 452.7m / FCF TTM 212.6m)
FCF Yield = 46.96% (FCF TTM 212.6m / Enterprise Value 452.7m)
FCF Margin = 27.20% (FCF TTM 212.6m / Revenue TTM 781.7m)
Net Margin = 27.54% (Net Income TTM 215.3m / Revenue TTM 781.7m)
Gross Margin = 58.93% ((Revenue TTM 781.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 321.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.49% (prev 56.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.19 (Enterprise Value 452.7m / Total Assets 2.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.27% (Interest Expense 7.05m / Debt 112.4m)
Taxrate = 25.11% (72.2m / 287.5m)
NOPAT = 220.6m (EBIT 294.5m * (1 - 25.11%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 1.45b / Total Current Liabilities 1.99b)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 112.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 567.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.78 (Net Debt -547.2m / EBITDA 307.4m)
Debt / FCF = -2.57 (Net Debt -547.2m / FCF TTM 212.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 507.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.64% (Net Income 215.3m / Total Assets 2.45b)
RoE = 42.41% (Net Income TTM 215.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 507.7m)
RoCE = 57.52% (EBIT 294.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 507.7m + L.T.Debt 4.37m))
RoIC = 9.17% (NOPAT 220.6m / Invested Capital 2.41b)
WACC = 5.42% (E(999.9m)/V(1.11b) * Re(5.50%) + D(112.4m)/V(1.11b) * Rd(6.27%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 5.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -6.31 | Cagr: -0.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈171.7m ; Y1≈196.9m ; Y5≈289.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 165.1 (EV 4.36b - Net Debt -547.2m = Equity 4.91b / Shares 29.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.86 | EPS CAGR: 94.67% | SUE: 2.07 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 47.92 | Revenue CAGR: 2.79% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+26.37% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.17 | Chg30d=+18.51% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-17.2% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.18 | Chg30d=+9.51% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+0.2% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)