HRTG Stock Analysis: Heritage Insurance Hldgs | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.011m USD | 12M Return: 35.9% | US42727J1025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 8.77M
EPS Trend: 96.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 47.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Heritage Insurance Holdings (HRTG) is a U.S. property and casualty insurer that provides personal and commercial residential insurance products across 16 states, with a notable concentration in coastal and storm-exposed markets such as Florida, California, Hawaii, New York, New Jersey, and the Carolinas. Its product lineup includes homeowners, condo, dwelling fire, equipment coverage, and an artisan contractor program, distributed exclusively through independent agents. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Tampa, Florida, the company operates in a sector characterized by geographic concentration risks-particularly hurricane and wind exposure in Florida-and relies on independent agent networks, which is a standard distribution model in the U.S. personal lines insurance industry.
- Florida reinsurance costs pressure combined ratio margins
- State legislative reform reduces litigation and assignment of benefits abuse
- Personal residential premium growth accelerates across expanded coastal footprint
| Net Income: 215.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.47% < 20% (prev -41.54%; Δ 38.07% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 304.7m > Net Income 215.3m |
| Net Debt (-547.2m) to EBITDA (307.4m): -1.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.98 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (30.1m) vs 12m ago -2.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 58.93% > 18% (prev 28.70%; Δ 30.23% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.38% > 50% (prev 33.18%; Δ -1.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 41.78 > 6 (EBIT TTM 294.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.05m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.45b - Total Current Liabilities 1.47b) / Total Assets 2.45b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 381.4m / Total Assets 2.45b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 294.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.49b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 567.7m / Total Liabilities 1.88b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.55 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.16 (Receivables 94.0m/648.4m, Revenue 781.7m/841.7m) |
| GMI: 0.49 (GM 28.70% / 58.93%) |
| AQI: 1.38 (AQ_t 0.39 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 781.7m / 841.7m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 215.3m - CFO 304.7m) / TA 2.45b) |
| Beneish M = -4.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 35.23 with a total of 297,184 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.14%, over one month by +2.29%, over three months by +29.28% and over the past year by +35.87%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 34.10 (which is 3.2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Heritage Insurance Hldgs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HRTG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 39 | 10.7% |
P/E Trailing = 4.8488
P/S = 1.1825
P/B = 1.7319
Revenue TTM = 781.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 294.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 307.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.37m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 4.09m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 112.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 20.5m
Net Debt = -547.2m USD (calculated: Debt 112.4m - CCE 659.6m)
Enterprise Value = 463.4m USD (1.01b + Debt 112.4m - CCE 659.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 41.78 (Ebit TTM 294.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.05m)
EV/FCF = 2.18x (Enterprise Value 463.4m / FCF TTM 212.6m)
FCF Yield = 45.88% (FCF TTM 212.6m / Enterprise Value 463.4m)
FCF Margin = 27.20% (FCF TTM 212.6m / Revenue TTM 781.7m)
Net Margin = 27.54% (Net Income TTM 215.3m / Revenue TTM 781.7m)
Gross Margin = 58.93% ((Revenue TTM 781.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 321.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.49% (prev 56.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.19 (Enterprise Value 463.4m / Total Assets 2.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.27% (Interest Expense 7.05m / Debt 112.4m)
Taxrate = 25.11% (72.2m / 287.5m)
NOPAT = 220.6m (EBIT 294.5m * (1 - 25.11%))
Current Ratio = 0.73 (Total Current Assets 1.45b / Total Current Liabilities 1.99b)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 112.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 567.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.78 (Net Debt -547.2m / EBITDA 307.4m)
Debt / FCF = -2.57 (Net Debt -547.2m / FCF TTM 212.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 507.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.64% (Net Income 215.3m / Total Assets 2.45b)
RoE = 42.41% (Net Income TTM 215.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 507.7m)
RoCE = 57.52% (EBIT 294.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 507.7m + L.T.Debt 4.37m))
RoIC = 9.17% (NOPAT 220.6m / Invested Capital 2.41b)
WACC = 5.42% (E(1.01b)/V(1.12b) * Re(5.50%) + D(112.4m)/V(1.12b) * Rd(6.27%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 5.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -6.31 | Cagr: -0.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈171.7m ; Y1≈196.9m ; Y5≈289.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 165.1 (EV 4.36b - Net Debt -547.2m = Equity 4.91b / Shares 29.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.86 | EPS CAGR: 94.67% | SUE: 2.07 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 47.92 | Revenue CAGR: 2.79% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.17 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-17.2% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.18 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+0.2% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)