(HSY) Hershey - Ratings and Ratios
Chocolate, Candy, Snacks, Gum, Pantry
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.91% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.17% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 14.81% |
| Payout Consistency | 92.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 87.0% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 41.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.49% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.39 |
| Alpha | 5.50 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.10 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.557 |
| Beta | 0.083 |
| Beta Downside | 0.118 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.25% |
| Mean DD | 24.77% |
| Median DD | 28.47% |
Description: HSY Hershey September 29, 2025
The Hershey Company (HSY) manufactures and sells a broad portfolio of confectionery and pantry products across three operating segments-North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International-serving wholesale distributors, grocery chains, mass merchandisers, drug stores, vending firms, clubs, convenience outlets, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores.
Its brand lineup includes core chocolate names such as Hershey’s, Reese’s, Kisses, and Kit Kat, as well as non-chocolate and snack offerings like Twizzlers, SkinnyPop, ONE Bar, and Pirates Booty, giving the company exposure to both traditional confectionery and the fast-growing “better-for-you” snacking segment.
Hershey exports to roughly 80 countries, leveraging its U.S.-centric scale while pursuing incremental growth abroad; the International segment, though smaller, has delivered double-digit revenue growth in recent years, reflecting rising demand for premium chocolate in emerging markets.
Key financial metrics (FY 2023) show net sales of $11.3 billion, an operating margin of ~15 %, earnings per share of $5.30, free cash flow of $1.4 billion, and a dividend yield near 2.6 % with a $1.5 billion share-repurchase program in place. The business is sensitive to cocoa price volatility and broader consumer-discretionary trends, but its strong brand equity and shift toward higher-margin snack and protein-bar categories provide a defensive cushion against inflationary pressure.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of HSY’s valuation relative to peers, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent, data-driven dashboard you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (1.36b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 689.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.16 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.79pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 10.19% (prev -5.86%; Δ 16.05pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.29b > Net Income 1.36b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (4.58b) to EBITDA (2.26b) ratio: 2.02 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.36 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (203.5m) change vs 12m ago 0.23% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 37.46% (prev 44.35%; Δ -6.89pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 87.70% (prev 86.93%; Δ 0.77pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 8.79 (EBITDA TTM 2.26b / Interest Expense TTM 201.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.41
| (A) 0.09 = (Total Current Assets 4.40b - Total Current Liabilities 3.23b) / Total Assets 13.58b |
| (B) 0.40 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 5.45b / Total Assets 13.58b |
| (C) 0.14 = EBIT TTM 1.77b / Avg Total Assets 13.10b |
| (D) 0.60 = Book Value of Equity 5.42b / Total Liabilities 9.01b |
| Total Rating: 3.41 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 72.52
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.11% |
| 3. FCF Margin 18.78% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.26 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.02 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 7.42)% |
| 7. RoE 29.44% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 37.64% |
| 9. EPS Trend -39.84% |
What is the price of HSY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.12%, over one month by +5.15%, over three months by +5.30% and over the past year by +10.29%.
Is HSY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 17
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the HSY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 189.1 | 0.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 189.1 | 0.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 195.6 | 4% |
HSY Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 27.7728
P/E Forward = 28.169
P/S = 3.2794
P/B = 8.2634
P/EG = 48.5713
Beta = 0.187
Revenue TTM = 11.49b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.77b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.26b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.68b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 763.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.74b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.58b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 42.25b USD (37.68b + Debt 5.74b - CCE 1.16b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.79 (Ebit TTM 1.77b / Interest Expense TTM 201.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.11% (FCF TTM 2.16b / Enterprise Value 42.25b)
FCF Margin = 18.78% (FCF TTM 2.16b / Revenue TTM 11.49b)
Net Margin = 11.84% (Net Income TTM 1.36b / Revenue TTM 11.49b)
Gross Margin = 37.46% ((Revenue TTM 11.49b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.58% (prev 30.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.11 (Enterprise Value 42.25b / Total Assets 13.58b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.90% (Interest Expense 51.5m / Debt 5.74b)
Taxrate = 25.70% (95.6m / 371.9m)
NOPAT = 1.31b (EBIT 1.77b * (1 - 25.70%))
Current Ratio = 1.36 (Total Current Assets 4.40b / Total Current Liabilities 3.23b)
Debt / Equity = 1.26 (Debt 5.74b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.56b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.02 (Net Debt 4.58b / EBITDA 2.26b)
Debt / FCF = 2.12 (Net Debt 4.58b / FCF TTM 2.16b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.01% (Net Income 1.36b / Total Assets 13.58b)
RoE = 29.44% (Net Income TTM 1.36b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.62b)
RoCE = 19.03% (EBIT 1.77b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.62b + L.T.Debt 4.68b))
RoIC = 12.99% (NOPAT 1.31b / Invested Capital 10.12b)
WACC = 5.57% (E(37.68b)/V(43.42b) * Re(6.32%) + D(5.74b)/V(43.42b) * Rd(0.90%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 6.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.45%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.25% ; FCFE base≈1.96b ; Y1≈2.09b ; Y5≈2.54b
Fair Price DCF = 300.1 (DCF Value 44.47b / Shares Outstanding 148.2m; 5y FCF grow 7.85% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -39.84 | EPS CAGR: -6.76% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 37.64 | Revenue CAGR: 8.71% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.81 | Chg30d=-0.066 | Revisions Net=-5 | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2025-12-31): EPS=5.98 | Chg30d=+0.033 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=-36.2% | Growth Revenue=+3.3%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.77 | Chg30d=-0.029 | Revisions Net=-5 | Growth EPS=+13.2% | Growth Revenue=+3.7%
Additional Sources for HSY Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle