HSY Stock Analysis: Hershey | NYSE
Confectioners | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 33.555m USD | 12M Return: -6.2% | US4278661081 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 221M
EPS Trend: -89.3%
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 69.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Hershey Company (HSY) is a U.S.-based global manufacturer of confectionery and pantry products, operating through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. Its portfolio spans chocolate and non-chocolate sweets, gum and mints, protein bars, baking ingredients, and salty snacks, sold under a wide range of iconic brands including Hersheys, Reeses, Kisses, Kit Kat, Cadbury, SkinnyPop, and Dots Homestyle Pretzels. The company distributes its products through wholesale distributors, grocery chains, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, and other retail channels, exporting to approximately 65 countries, and is headquartered in Hershey, Pennsylvania, where it was founded in 1894.
As a Consumer Staples company, Hershey operates in a defensive sector characterized by relatively stable, recurring demand for its products, with brand equity serving as a key competitive moat. Its diversified product range across confectionery, salty snacks, and pantry staples helps offset category-specific volatility, while its mix of owned and licensed brands (such as Kit Kat and Cadbury under agreements with The Mondelez-related entities and others) provides both scale advantages and selective exposure to faster-growing snack subcategories.
- Cocoa costs surge pressures Hersheys confectionery margins
- Salty snacks segment drives volume growth amid pricing headwinds
- International expansion accelerates with emerging market confectionery sales
| Net Income: 1.49b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.64 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.96% < 20% (prev 13.57%; Δ -8.60% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 2.66b > Net Income 1.49b |
| Net Debt (5.21b) to EBITDA (2.61b): 1.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.18 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (204.3m) vs 12m ago 0.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.11% > 18% (prev 40.12%; Δ -2.01% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 88.08% > 50% (prev 82.77%; Δ 5.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.71 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.08b / Interest Expense TTM 214.8m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 3.96b - Total Current Liabilities 3.35b) / Total Assets 14.0b |
| B: 0.42 (Retained Earnings 5.81b / Total Assets 14.0b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 2.08b / Avg Total Assets 13.8b) |
| D: 0.48 (Book Value of Equity 4.56b / Total Liabilities 9.41b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.16 = A |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 907.4m/820.2m, Revenue 12.2b/11.3b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 40.12% / 38.11%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.42) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 12.2b / 11.3b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 1.49b - CFO 2.66b) / TA 14.0b) |
| Beneish M = -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 169.58 with a total of 1,350,041 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.00%, over one month by +1.00%, over three months by -0.46% and over the past year by -6.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 164.70 (which is 2.9% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Hershey has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.52. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HSY.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 198 | 16.8% |
P/E Trailing = 22.8142
P/E Forward = 17.762
P/S = 2.7585
P/B = 7.418
P/EG = 0.8461
Revenue TTM = 12.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.08b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.61b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.61b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 925.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.00b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 388.2m
Net Debt = 5.21b USD (calculated: Debt 6.00b - CCE 791.2m)
Enterprise Value = 38.8b USD (33.6b + Debt 6.00b - CCE 791.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.71 (Ebit TTM 2.08b / Interest Expense TTM 214.8m)
EV/FCF = 15.23x (Enterprise Value 38.8b / FCF TTM 2.54b)
FCF Yield = 6.56% (FCF TTM 2.54b / Enterprise Value 38.8b)
FCF Margin = 20.92% (FCF TTM 2.54b / Revenue TTM 12.2b)
Net Margin = 12.24% (Net Income TTM 1.49b / Revenue TTM 12.2b)
Gross Margin = 38.11% ((Revenue TTM 12.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.32% (prev 39.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.77 (Enterprise Value 38.8b / Total Assets 14.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.58% (Interest Expense 214.8m / Debt 6.00b)
Taxrate = 22.54% (433.3m / 1.92b)
NOPAT = 1.61b (EBIT 2.08b * (1 - 22.54%))
Current Ratio = 1.18 (Total Current Assets 3.96b / Total Current Liabilities 3.35b)
Debt / Equity = 1.31 (Debt 6.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.56b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.99 (Net Debt 5.21b / EBITDA 2.61b)
Debt / FCF = 2.05 (Net Debt 5.21b / FCF TTM 2.54b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.78% (Net Income 1.49b / Total Assets 14.0b)
RoE = 32.20% (Net Income TTM 1.49b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.62b)
RoCE = 22.56% (EBIT 2.08b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.62b + L.T.Debt 4.61b))
RoIC = 14.76% (NOPAT 1.61b / Invested Capital 10.9b)
WACC = 5.01% (E(33.6b)/V(39.6b) * Re(5.41%) + D(6.00b)/V(39.6b) * Rd(3.58%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 5.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 13.45 | Cagr: -0.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈2.16b ; Y1≈2.47b ; Y5≈3.64b
[DCF] Fair Price = 338.9 (EV 54.8b - Net Debt 5.21b = Equity 49.6b / Shares 146.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -89.33 | EPS CAGR: -13.96% | SUE: 2.09 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 69.43 | Revenue CAGR: 2.85% | SUE: 1.32 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.12 | Chg30d=-0.15% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.48 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+34.4% | GrowthRev=+5.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.84 | Chg30d=-0.24% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+16.0% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -31% (up=3, down=7)