HTGC Stock Analysis: Hercules Capital | NYSE

Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.229m USD | 12M Return: -0.2% | US4270965084 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Venture Debt, Growth Capital, Mezzanine Loans, Bridge Financing
Total Rating 32
Safety 56
Buy Signal -0.58
Asset Management
Industry Rotation: +9.9
Market Cap: 3.23B
Avg Turnover: 23.8M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility20.0%
VaR 5th Pctl3.70%
VaR vs Median12.2%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Rel. Str. IBD39.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group57.2
Character TTM
Beta0.779
Beta Downside0.787
Hurst Exponent0.455
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD27.13%
CAGR/Max DD0.45
CAGR/Mean DD1.53
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of HTGC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.32, "2021-09": 0.33, "2021-12": 0.35, "2022-03": 0.3, "2022-06": 0.32, "2022-09": 0.39, "2022-12": 0.47, "2023-03": 0.48, "2023-06": 0.53, "2023-09": 0.52, "2023-12": 0.56, "2024-03": 0.5, "2024-06": 0.51, "2024-09": 0.51, "2024-12": 0.49, "2025-03": 0.45, "2025-06": 0.5, "2025-09": 0.49, "2025-12": 0.48, "2026-03": 0.48, "2026-06": 0.5,
EPS CAGR: -3.00%
EPS Trend: -78.3%
Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of HTGC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 115.326, 2021-09: 57.355, 2021-12: 40.241, 2022-03: 29.72, 2022-06: 21.666, 2022-09: 87.429, 2022-12: 100.572, 2023-03: 134.155, 2023-06: 135.306, 2023-09: 67.917, 2023-12: 156.737, 2024-03: 133.355, 2024-06: 84.5, 2024-09: 110.795, 2024-12: 102.246, 2025-03: 92.405, 2025-06: 127.633, 2025-09: 169.31, 2025-12: 157.748, 2026-03: 95.928, 2026-06: 156.816,
Rev. CAGR: 7.05%
Rev. Trend: 51.8%
Last SUE: 0.29
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +0.6% 10
Feb +2.4% 6
Mar -0.9% 8
Apr +0.3% 25
May +0.1% 7
Jun -0.3% 36
Jul +1.8% 47
Aug -0.8% 16
Sep -2.9% 48
Oct -4.0% 30
Nov +0.6% 14
Dec +0.5% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: HTGC Hercules Capital

Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a publicly traded business development company (BDC) that provides structured debt and equity financing to venture capital-backed companies across various development stages, from mid-venture to expansion, as well as to select publicly listed firms and special opportunity situations. Its financing offerings include growth capital, management buy-outs, spin-outs, acquisition financing, convertible and mezzanine loans, bridge financing for IPOs and M&A, accounts receivable facilities, equipment loans and leases, working capital revolving lines of credit, and dividend recapitalizations.

The firm invests primarily in structured debt with warrants, with a smaller allocation to senior debt and equity, and generally targets companies that have been operating for at least six to twelve months prior to investment. Sectors of focus include technology, SaaS, energy technology, and sustainable industries.

As a BDC, Hercules operates under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which requires it to distribute substantially all of its taxable income to shareholders in order to qualify for pass-through tax treatment.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • SOFR rate changes lift net interest spread on floating-rate loans
  • Venture debt credit quality weakens as tech portfolio non-accruals rise
  • Strong origination pipeline expands investment portfolio and net investment income
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 383.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.11 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -102.0% < 20% (prev -15.07%; Δ -86.94% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -139.5m > Net Income 383.2m
Net Debt (2.31b) to EBITDA (437.0m): 5.29 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (199.6m) vs 12m ago 4.61% < -2%
Gross Margin: 89.90% > 18% (prev 80.84%; Δ 9.07% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 12.92% > 50% (prev 10.11%; Δ 2.82% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 436.7m / Interest Expense TTM 105.8m)
Altman Z'' 0.88
A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 84.8m - Total Current Liabilities 676.2m) / Total Assets 4.69b
B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 99.2m / Total Assets 4.69b)
C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 436.7m / Avg Total Assets 4.49b)
D: 0.94 (Book Value of Equity 2.27b / Total Liabilities 2.41b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.88 = B
Beneish M -3.04
DSRI: 0.78 (Receivables 36.6m/34.9m, Revenue 579.8m/433.1m)
GMI: 0.90 (GM 80.84% / 89.90%)
AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.98)
SGI: 1.34 (Revenue 579.8m / 433.1m)
TATA: 0.11 (NI 383.2m - CFO -139.5m) / TA 4.69b)
Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of HTGC shares?

As of August 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.25 with a total of 1,691,838 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.05%, over one month by +9.94%, over three months by +10.76% and over the past year by -0.20%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.70 (which is 3.2% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is HTGC a buy, sell or hold?

Hercules Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HTGC.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the HTGC price?
Analysts Target Price 19.2 11.1%
Hercules Capital (HTGC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 10 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.23b (3.23b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 8.5396
P/E Forward = 8.8496
P/S = 5.7025
P/B = 1.4196
P/EG = 0.5247
Revenue TTM = 579.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 436.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 437.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.67b USD (estimated: total debt 2.35b - short term 676.2m)
Short Term Debt = 676.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.36b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 10.2m
Net Debt = 2.31b USD (calculated: Debt 2.36b - CCE 48.2m)
Enterprise Value = 5.54b USD (3.23b + Debt 2.36b - CCE 48.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.13 (Ebit TTM 436.7m / Interest Expense TTM 105.8m)
EV/FCF = -39.68x (Enterprise Value 5.54b / FCF TTM -139.6m)
FCF Yield = -2.52% (FCF TTM -139.6m / Enterprise Value 5.54b)
FCF Margin = -24.08% (FCF TTM -139.6m / Revenue TTM 579.8m)
Net Margin = 66.09% (Net Income TTM 383.2m / Revenue TTM 579.8m)
Gross Margin = 89.90% ((Revenue TTM 579.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 58.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 70.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.18 (Enterprise Value 5.54b / Total Assets 4.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.48% (Interest Expense 105.8m / Debt 2.36b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 345.0m (EBIT 436.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 84.8m / Total Current Liabilities 676.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.04 (Debt 2.36b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.29 (Net Debt 2.31b / EBITDA 437.0m)
 Debt / FCF = -16.56 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.31b / FCF TTM -139.6m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 2.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.54% (Net Income 383.2m / Total Assets 4.69b)
RoE = 17.21% (Net Income TTM 383.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.23b)
RoCE = 11.20% (EBIT 436.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.23b + L.T.Debt 1.67b))
RoIC = 7.40% (NOPAT 345.0m / Invested Capital 4.66b)
WACC = 6.53% (E(3.23b)/V(5.59b) * Re(8.72%) + D(2.36b)/V(5.59b) * Rd(4.48%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.99 | Cagr: 10.97%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -139.6m)
 EPS Correlation: -78.29 | EPS CAGR: -3.00% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 51.85 | Revenue CAGR: 7.05% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=-1.26% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=-0.21% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+1.2% | GrowthRev=+9.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.97 | Chg30d=-1.16% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+1.7% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)