(HTGC) Hercules Capital - Overview
Stock: Venture Debt, Growth Capital, Structured Debt, Warrants
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 6.85% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.17 |
| Alpha | -35.82 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.822 |
| Beta Downside | 1.198 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 25.57% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.32 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: HTGC Hercules Capital January 11, 2026
Hercules Capital (HTGC) is a Business Development Company that focuses on providing private-equity-backed financing-primarily structured debt with warrants-to venture-backed companies across the mid-venture to expansion stages, as well as select public and special-opportunity issuers. Its product set spans growth-capital loans, mezzanine and subordinated debt, asset-based facilities, IPO bridge financing, and acquisition-related funding, with a strong emphasis on technology, SaaS, fintech, and clean-energy sectors.
Key operating metrics (2023 Form 10-K) show a portfolio of roughly $2.6 billion in assets, a weighted-average loan maturity of 3.5 years, and a historical default rate under 0.5 %. The fund’s net asset value (NAV) per share has risen about 12 % YoY, while its leverage ratio (total debt / NAV) sits near 1.2×, indicating modest use of debt to amplify returns. The venture-debt market has expanded at ~8 % CAGR over the past five years, driven by sustained VC funding volumes, but the sector’s sensitivity to rising interest rates remains a material risk.
Given HTGC’s concentration in high-growth tech and sustainability-focused firms, its performance is closely tied to macro-drivers such as the pace of corporate-venture capital cycles, the availability of cheap capital, and regulatory incentives for clean-energy investment. Investors should monitor the firm’s credit-quality trends and the broader venture-debt spread compression as potential upside or downside catalysts.
For a deeper, data-driven view of HTGC’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 339.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -12.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.28% < 20% (prev 4.02%; Δ 1.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.07 > 3% & CFO -343.2m > Net Income 339.7m |
| Net Debt (2.25b) to EBITDA (365.4m): 6.15 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.44 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (194.8m) vs 12m ago 17.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 87.23% > 18% (prev 0.82%; Δ 8641 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 13.00% > 50% (prev 11.25%; Δ 1.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.96 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 365.4m / Interest Expense TTM 92.2m) |
Altman Z'' 0.74
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 94.1m - Total Current Liabilities 65.3m) / Total Assets 4.58b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 101.2m / Total Assets 4.58b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 365.1m / Avg Total Assets 4.21b) |
| D: 0.04 (Book Value of Equity 101.3m / Total Liabilities 2.37b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.74 = B |
Beneish M -2.81
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 37.3m/32.6m, Revenue 547.1m/430.9m) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 87.23% / 82.10%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.98) |
| SGI: 1.27 (Revenue 547.1m / 430.9m) |
| TATA: 0.15 (NI 339.7m - CFO -343.2m) / TA 4.58b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of HTGC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.73%, over one month by -18.96%, over three months by -13.92% and over the past year by -23.25%.
Is HTGC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HTGC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20.3 | 34.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20.3 | 34.6% |
HTGC Fundamental Data Overview February 23, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.7087
P/S = 5.3229
P/B = 1.5836
P/EG = 0.5218
Revenue TTM = 547.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 365.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 365.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.29b USD (estimated: total debt 2.30b - short term 16.3m)
Short Term Debt = 16.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.25b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.08b USD (2.83b + Debt 2.30b - CCE 56.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.96 (Ebit TTM 365.1m / Interest Expense TTM 92.2m)
EV/FCF = -14.80x (Enterprise Value 5.08b / FCF TTM -343.3m)
FCF Yield = -6.76% (FCF TTM -343.3m / Enterprise Value 5.08b)
FCF Margin = -62.75% (FCF TTM -343.3m / Revenue TTM 547.1m)
Net Margin = 62.10% (Net Income TTM 339.7m / Revenue TTM 547.1m)
Gross Margin = 87.23% ((Revenue TTM 547.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 69.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 85.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.11 (Enterprise Value 5.08b / Total Assets 4.58b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 25.4m / Debt 2.30b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 288.4m (EBIT 365.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.44 (Total Current Assets 94.1m / Total Current Liabilities 65.3m)
Debt / Equity = 1.04 (Debt 2.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.15 (Net Debt 2.25b / EBITDA 365.4m)
Debt / FCF = -6.54 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.25b / FCF TTM -343.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.07% (Net Income 339.7m / Total Assets 4.58b)
RoE = 15.88% (Net Income TTM 339.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.14b)
RoCE = 8.25% (EBIT 365.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.14b + L.T.Debt 2.29b))
RoIC = 6.77% (NOPAT 288.4m / Invested Capital 4.26b)
WACC = 5.33% (E(2.83b)/V(5.14b) * Re(8.95%) + D(2.30b)/V(5.14b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 11.12%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -343.3m)
EPS Correlation: 58.65 | EPS CAGR: 13.35% | SUE: -0.43 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.39 | Revenue CAGR: 56.07% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=-0.029 | Revisions Net=-4 | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=-0.096 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+0.9% | Growth Revenue=+9.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.97 | Chg30d=-0.085 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+2.2% | Growth Revenue=+6.2%