HTGC Stock Analysis: Hercules Capital | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.983m USD | 12M Return: -4.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 22.0M
EPS Trend: -78.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 48.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a publicly traded business development company (BDC) that provides structured debt and equity financing to venture capital-backed companies across various development stages, from mid-venture to expansion, as well as to select publicly listed firms and special opportunity situations. Its financing offerings include growth capital, management buy-outs, spin-outs, acquisition financing, convertible and mezzanine loans, bridge financing for IPOs and M&A, accounts receivable facilities, equipment loans and leases, working capital revolving lines of credit, and dividend recapitalizations.
The firm invests primarily in structured debt with warrants, with a smaller allocation to senior debt and equity, and generally targets companies that have been operating for at least six to twelve months prior to investment. Sectors of focus include technology, SaaS, energy technology, and sustainable industries.
As a BDC, Hercules operates under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which requires it to distribute substantially all of its taxable income to shareholders in order to qualify for pass-through tax treatment.
- SOFR rate changes lift net interest spread on floating-rate loans
- Venture debt credit quality weakens as tech portfolio non-accruals rise
- Strong origination pipeline expands investment portfolio and net investment income
| Net Income: 339.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.74% < 20% (prev -15.07%; Δ 27.81% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 91.1m > Net Income 339.7m |
| Net Debt (-23.1m) to EBITDA (343.4m): -0.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.71 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (199.6m) vs 12m ago 4.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 86.56% > 18% (prev 80.84%; Δ 5.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.23% > 50% (prev 10.11%; Δ 2.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.72 > 6 (EBIT TTM 343.0m / Interest Expense TTM 92.2m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 84.8m - Total Current Liabilities 14.9m) / Total Assets 4.69b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 101.2m / Total Assets 4.69b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 343.0m / Avg Total Assets 4.49b) |
| D: 0.94 (Book Value of Equity 2.27b / Total Liabilities 2.41b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.67 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 36.6m/34.9m, Revenue 548.7m/433.1m) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 80.84% / 86.56%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.98) |
| SGI: 1.27 (Revenue 548.7m / 433.1m) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 339.7m - CFO 91.1m) / TA 4.69b) |
| Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.42 with a total of 2,309,783 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.39%, over one month by +2.88%, over three months by +2.93% and over the past year by -4.66%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.90 (which is 3.2% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Hercules Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HTGC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19.4 | 17.9% |
P/E Trailing = 8.905
P/E Forward = 8.3195
P/S = 5.3789
P/B = 1.3418
P/EG = 0.5247
Revenue TTM = 548.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 343.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 343.4m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 14.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 25.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 10.2m
Net Debt = -23.1m USD (calculated: Debt 25.0m - CCE 48.2m)
Enterprise Value = 2.96b USD (2.98b + Debt 25.0m - CCE 48.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.72 (Ebit TTM 343.0m / Interest Expense TTM 92.2m)
EV/FCF = 32.51x (Enterprise Value 2.96b / FCF TTM 91.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.08% (FCF TTM 91.0m / Enterprise Value 2.96b)
FCF Margin = 16.59% (FCF TTM 91.0m / Revenue TTM 548.7m)
Net Margin = 61.92% (Net Income TTM 339.7m / Revenue TTM 548.7m)
Gross Margin = 86.56% ((Revenue TTM 548.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 73.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.39% (prev 70.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.63 (Enterprise Value 2.96b / Total Assets 4.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 368.2% (Interest Expense 92.2m / Debt 25.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 271.0m (EBIT 343.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 5.71 (Total Current Assets 84.8m / Total Current Liabilities 14.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 25.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.07 (Net Debt -23.1m / EBITDA 343.4m)
Debt / FCF = -0.25 (Net Debt -23.1m / FCF TTM 91.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.57% (Net Income 339.7m / Total Assets 4.69b)
RoE = 15.26% (Net Income TTM 339.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.23b)
RoCE = 15.40% (EBIT 343.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.23b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 5.81% (NOPAT 271.0m / Invested Capital 4.66b)
WACC = 8.65% (E(2.98b)/V(3.01b) * Re(8.72%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.99 | Cagr: 10.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.40% ; FCFF base≈91.0m ; Y1≈91.4m ; Y5≈96.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.79 (EV 1.43b - Net Debt -23.1m = Equity 1.46b / Shares 187.1m; r=8.65% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -78.29 | EPS CAGR: -3.00% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 48.37 | Revenue CAGR: 6.14% | SUE: -0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=-2.95% | Revisions=-30% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.92 | Chg30d=-0.88% | Revisions=-18% | GrowthEPS=+0.5% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.98 | Chg30d=-0.74% | Revisions=-18% | GrowthEPS=+2.9% | GrowthRev=+7.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -27% (up=8, down=15)