(HTGC) Hercules Capital - Overview
Stock: Venture Debt, Growth Capital, Structured Debt, Warrants
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 8.54% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 17.66% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.80% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 82.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 18.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 5.77% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.16 |
| Alpha | -15.93 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.717 |
| Beta Downside | 0.879 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 26.63% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.72 |
Description: HTGC Hercules Capital January 11, 2026
Hercules Capital (HTGC) is a Business Development Company that focuses on providing private-equity-backed financing-primarily structured debt with warrants-to venture-backed companies across the mid-venture to expansion stages, as well as select public and special-opportunity issuers. Its product set spans growth-capital loans, mezzanine and subordinated debt, asset-based facilities, IPO bridge financing, and acquisition-related funding, with a strong emphasis on technology, SaaS, fintech, and clean-energy sectors.
Key operating metrics (2023 Form 10-K) show a portfolio of roughly $2.6 billion in assets, a weighted-average loan maturity of 3.5 years, and a historical default rate under 0.5 %. The fund’s net asset value (NAV) per share has risen about 12 % YoY, while its leverage ratio (total debt / NAV) sits near 1.2×, indicating modest use of debt to amplify returns. The venture-debt market has expanded at ~8 % CAGR over the past five years, driven by sustained VC funding volumes, but the sector’s sensitivity to rising interest rates remains a material risk.
Given HTGC’s concentration in high-growth tech and sustainability-focused firms, its performance is closely tied to macro-drivers such as the pace of corporate-venture capital cycles, the availability of cheap capital, and regulatory incentives for clean-energy investment. Investors should monitor the firm’s credit-quality trends and the broader venture-debt spread compression as potential upside or downside catalysts.
For a deeper, data-driven view of HTGC’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 310.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -16.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.97% < 20% (prev 4.84%; Δ 5.13% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.07 > 3% & CFO -316.9m > Net Income 310.3m |
| Net Debt (-12.7m) to EBITDA (310.7m): -0.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.95 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (194.4m) vs 12m ago 20.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 82.34% > 18% (prev 0.85%; Δ 8149 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.19% > 50% (prev 13.28%; Δ -1.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.57 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 310.7m / Interest Expense TTM 86.8m) |
Altman Z'' 0.78
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 65.6m - Total Current Liabilities 16.6m) / Total Assets 4.41b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 88.0m / Total Assets 4.41b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 310.3m / Avg Total Assets 4.03b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 269.9m / Total Liabilities 2.22b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.78 = B |
Beneish M -2.73
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 36.3m/31.4m, Revenue 491.6m/485.4m) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 82.34% / 84.64%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.98) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 491.6m / 485.4m) |
| TATA: 0.14 (NI 310.3m - CFO -316.9m) / TA 4.41b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.73 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of HTGC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.48%, over one month by -0.27%, over three months by +7.65% and over the past year by -1.88%.
Is HTGC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HTGC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20.9 | 12% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20.9 | 12% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.7 | 21.5% |
HTGC Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.5238
P/S = 6.5466
P/B = 1.5451
P/EG = 0.5218
Revenue TTM = 491.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 310.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 310.7m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 16.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 16.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -12.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.37b USD (3.38b + Debt 16.6m - CCE 29.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.57 (Ebit TTM 310.3m / Interest Expense TTM 86.8m)
EV/FCF = -10.64x (Enterprise Value 3.37b / FCF TTM -316.9m)
FCF Yield = -9.40% (FCF TTM -316.9m / Enterprise Value 3.37b)
FCF Margin = -64.46% (FCF TTM -316.9m / Revenue TTM 491.6m)
Net Margin = 63.13% (Net Income TTM 310.3m / Revenue TTM 491.6m)
Gross Margin = 82.34% ((Revenue TTM 491.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 86.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.71% (prev 82.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.76 (Enterprise Value 3.37b / Total Assets 4.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 145.8% (Interest Expense 24.2m / Debt 16.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 245.2m (EBIT 310.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 3.95 (Total Current Assets 65.6m / Total Current Liabilities 16.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 16.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.04 (Net Debt -12.7m / EBITDA 310.7m)
Debt / FCF = 0.04 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -12.7m / FCF TTM -316.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.08b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.69% (Net Income 310.3m / Total Assets 4.41b)
RoE = 14.90% (Net Income TTM 310.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.08b)
RoCE = 14.90% (EBIT 310.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.08b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 6.02% (NOPAT 245.2m / Invested Capital 4.07b)
WACC = 8.52% (E(3.38b)/V(3.40b) * Re(8.56%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 11.00%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -316.9m)
EPS Correlation: -8.29 | EPS CAGR: -40.76% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 66.36 | Revenue CAGR: 46.69% | SUE: 0.97 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.50 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.02 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+4.9% | Growth Revenue=+10.2%