(HTH) Hilltop Holdings - Overview
Stock: Banking Services, Broker-Dealer, Mortgage Loans
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.26% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.23% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 10.67% |
| Payout Consistency | 48.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 36.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.87 |
| Alpha | 15.60 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.565 |
| Beta Downside | 0.607 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 21.75% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.37 |
Description: HTH Hilltop Holdings January 14, 2026
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTH) operates as a diversified financial services firm with three primary segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment delivers a full suite of deposit and loan products-including checking, savings, CDs, home-equity, commercial real-estate, and equipment financing-plus treasury-management, asset-management, and digital banking services.
The Broker-Dealer arm focuses on public-finance activities, underwriting and distributing municipal and agency bonds, providing advisory and investment-banking services, and offering derivatives, commodities, and securities-lending capabilities. It also supports local-government investment pools and agricultural insurance.
The Mortgage Origination segment originates a range of residential mortgage products such as fixed-rate, adjustable-rate, jumbo, FHA, VA, and USDA loans, catering to both new-construction and refinance demand.
Recent performance metrics (Q4 2023) show a 6.2% year-over-year increase in total loan balances, a net interest margin of 3.1%-slightly above the regional-bank average of 2.9%-and a return on equity of 8.4%, reflecting steady profitability amid a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve rate environment that is boosting net interest income but pressuring loan-growth volumes.
Key sector drivers include the Fed’s policy stance, regional housing market health, and municipal-bond issuance trends, all of which can materially affect HTH’s earnings outlook.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you might explore the ValueRay platforms detailed valuation metrics for HTH.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 166.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.46 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 39.43% < 20% (prev -528.2%; Δ 567.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 167.0m > Net Income 166.9m |
| Net Debt (-406.5m) to EBITDA (180.7m): -2.25 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (60.5m) vs 12m ago -6.99% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 81.42% > 18% (prev 0.73%; Δ 8069 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.77% > 50% (prev 9.47%; Δ -0.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.49 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 180.7m / Interest Expense TTM 343.3m) |
Altman Z'' 0.65
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 1.23b - Total Current Liabilities 676.9m) / Total Assets 15.84b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 1.27b / Total Assets 15.84b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 167.9m / Avg Total Assets 16.06b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 1.20b / Total Liabilities 13.65b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.65 = B |
What is the price of HTH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.36%, over one month by +15.32%, over three months by +22.14% and over the past year by +24.34%.
Is HTH a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HTH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 37 | -7.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 37 | -7.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 42.9 | 7.7% |
HTH Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 13.6986
P/S = 1.802
P/B = 1.0283
P/EG = 1.14
Revenue TTM = 1.41b USD
EBIT TTM = 167.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 180.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 148.5m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 676.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 825.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -406.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.89b USD (2.30b + Debt 825.5m - CCE 1.23b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.49 (Ebit TTM 167.9m / Interest Expense TTM 343.3m)
EV/FCF = 11.57x (Enterprise Value 1.89b / FCF TTM 163.4m)
FCF Yield = 8.64% (FCF TTM 163.4m / Enterprise Value 1.89b)
FCF Margin = 11.60% (FCF TTM 163.4m / Revenue TTM 1.41b)
Net Margin = 11.86% (Net Income TTM 166.9m / Revenue TTM 1.41b)
Gross Margin = 81.42% ((Revenue TTM 1.41b - Cost of Revenue TTM 261.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 79.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.12 (Enterprise Value 1.89b / Total Assets 15.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.85% (Interest Expense 81.3m / Debt 825.5m)
Taxrate = 19.23% (10.2m / 53.1m)
NOPAT = 135.6m (EBIT 167.9m * (1 - 19.23%))
Current Ratio = 1.82 (Total Current Assets 1.23b / Total Current Liabilities 676.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 825.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.25 (Net Debt -406.5m / EBITDA 180.7m)
Debt / FCF = -2.49 (Net Debt -406.5m / FCF TTM 163.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.04% (Net Income 166.9m / Total Assets 15.84b)
RoE = 7.63% (Net Income TTM 166.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.19b)
RoCE = 7.18% (EBIT 167.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.19b + L.T.Debt 148.5m))
RoIC = 5.17% (NOPAT 135.6m / Invested Capital 2.62b)
WACC = 7.99% (E(2.30b)/V(3.12b) * Re(8.0%) + D(825.5m)/V(3.12b) * Rd(9.85%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.63%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.57% ; FCFF base≈260.3m ; Y1≈199.3m ; Y5≈123.8m
Fair Price DCF = 45.76 (EV 2.32b - Net Debt -406.5m = Equity 2.72b / Shares 59.5m; r=7.99% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -27.80% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 31.46 | EPS CAGR: 27.19% | SUE: 2.56 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -11.51 | Revenue CAGR: -13.64% | SUE: -1.40 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+0.037 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.01 | Chg30d=-0.023 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=-0.6% | Growth Revenue=+1.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.35 | Chg30d=+0.130 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+16.7% | Growth Revenue=+5.5%