HTH Stock Analysis: Hilltop Holdings | NYSE
Financial Conglomerates | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.180m USD | 12M Return: 12.7% | US4327481010 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 8.00M
EPS Trend: 75.1%
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 86.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTH) is a Dallas, Texas-based financial holding company that operates through three business segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is classified as a mid-cap regional bank within the Financials sector.
The Banking segment delivers a full suite of consumer and commercial products, including deposit accounts, treasury and asset management, online banking, and a diverse loan portfolio spanning residential, commercial, agricultural, and construction lending. The Broker-Dealer segment, conducted primarily through Hilltop Securities, provides public finance, investment banking, fixed-income trading and underwriting, and clearing and securities lending services. The Mortgage Origination segment originates conventional, jumbo, and government-backed loans, including FHA, VA, and USDA products.
As a diversified regional banking franchise, Hilltop combines traditional community-style banking with capital markets and mortgage operations, a structure that allows it to generate fee income alongside net interest income. The companys revenue mix reflects both rate-sensitive lending activity and cyclical exposure to mortgage origination and bond underwriting volumes.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Mortgage origination volume declines with elevated housing rates
- Commercial real estate loan losses pressure banking credit costs
| Net Income: 161.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.04 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -30.82% < 20% (prev -576.5%; Δ 545.7% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.00 > 3% & CFO -46.9m > Net Income 161.8m |
| Net Debt (-1.05b) to EBITDA (224.9m): -4.65 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.61 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.0m) vs 12m ago -8.94% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.85% > 18% (prev 75.53%; Δ 4.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 10.15% > 50% (prev 10.06%; Δ 0.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM 214.4m / Interest Expense TTM 314.5m) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 768.3m - Total Current Liabilities 1.26b) / Total Assets 16.0b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 1.27b / Total Assets 16.0b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 214.4m / Avg Total Assets 15.7b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 2.13b / Total Liabilities 13.8b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.31 = B |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 1.59b/1.47b, Revenue 1.59b/1.55b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 75.53% / 79.85%) |
| AQI: 1.26 (AQ_t 0.94 / AQ_t-1 0.74) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 1.59b / 1.55b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 161.8m - CFO -46.9m) / TA 16.0b) |
| Beneish M = -2.85 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.53 with a total of 261,323 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.28%, over one month by -2.55%, over three months by +1.43% and over the past year by +12.74%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 37.70 (which is 2.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Hilltop Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HTH.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42 | 9% |
P/E Trailing = 14.145
P/E Forward = 13.4953
P/S = 1.7159
P/B = 1.0392
P/EG = 0.6082
Revenue TTM = 1.59b USD
EBIT TTM = 214.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 224.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 148.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.33b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.68b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 104.4m
Net Debt = -1.05b USD (calculated: Debt 1.68b - CCE 2.73b)
Enterprise Value = 1.13b USD (2.18b + Debt 1.68b - CCE 2.73b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.68 (Ebit TTM 214.4m / Interest Expense TTM 314.5m)
EV/FCF = -18.00x (Enterprise Value 1.13b / FCF TTM -63.0m)
FCF Yield = -5.56% (FCF TTM -63.0m / Enterprise Value 1.13b)
FCF Margin = -3.96% (FCF TTM -63.0m / Revenue TTM 1.59b)
Net Margin = 10.17% (Net Income TTM 161.8m / Revenue TTM 1.59b)
Gross Margin = 79.85% ((Revenue TTM 1.59b - Cost of Revenue TTM 320.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.43% (prev 80.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.07 (Enterprise Value 1.13b / Total Assets 16.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 18.71% (Interest Expense 314.5m / Debt 1.68b)
Taxrate = 22.32% (47.9m / 214.4m)
NOPAT = 166.6m (EBIT 214.4m * (1 - 22.32%))
Current Ratio = 0.61 (Total Current Assets 768.3m / Total Current Liabilities 1.26b)
Debt / Equity = 0.79 (Debt 1.68b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.65 (Net Debt -1.05b / EBITDA 224.9m)
Debt / FCF = 16.59 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -1.05b / FCF TTM -63.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.16b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.03% (Net Income 161.8m / Total Assets 16.0b)
RoE = 7.50% (Net Income TTM 161.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.16b)
RoCE = 9.30% (EBIT 214.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.16b + L.T.Debt 148.7m))
RoIC = 1.04% (NOPAT 166.6m / Invested Capital 16.0b)
WACC = 10.70% (E(2.18b)/V(3.86b) * Re(7.74%) + D(1.68b)/V(3.86b) * Rd(18.71%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.19 | Cagr: -5.11%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -63.0m)
EPS Correlation: 75.08 | EPS CAGR: 15.89% | SUE: 1.51 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 86.47 | Revenue CAGR: 2.80% | SUE: 0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.63 | Chg30d=-1.95% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.41 | Chg30d=+1.12% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+19.1% | GrowthRev=+1.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.49 | Chg30d=+3.75% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+3.5% | GrowthRev=+2.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +42% (up=7, down=2)