HTH Stock Analysis: Hilltop Holdings | NYSE
Financial Conglomerates | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.242m USD | 12M Return: 31.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.4M
EPS Trend: 68.6%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 87.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTH) is a Dallas, Texas-based financial holding company that operates through three business segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is classified as a mid-cap regional bank within the Financials sector.
The Banking segment delivers a full suite of consumer and commercial products, including deposit accounts, treasury and asset management, online banking, and a diverse loan portfolio spanning residential, commercial, agricultural, and construction lending. The Broker-Dealer segment, conducted primarily through Hilltop Securities, provides public finance, investment banking, fixed-income trading and underwriting, and clearing and securities lending services. The Mortgage Origination segment originates conventional, jumbo, and government-backed loans, including FHA, VA, and USDA products.
As a diversified regional banking franchise, Hilltop combines traditional community-style banking with capital markets and mortgage operations, a structure that allows it to generate fee income alongside net interest income. The companys revenue mix reflects both rate-sensitive lending activity and cyclical exposure to mortgage origination and bond underwriting volumes.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Mortgage origination volume declines with elevated housing rates
- Commercial real estate loan losses pressure banking credit costs
| Net Income: 161.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -263.3% < 20% (prev -556.0%; Δ 292.7% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -124.1m > Net Income 161.3m |
| Net Debt (-1.46b) to EBITDA (226.8m): -6.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (59.2m) vs 12m ago -8.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.42% > 18% (prev 73.43%; Δ 5.99% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 10.10% > 50% (prev 9.84%; Δ 0.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.65 > 6 (EBIT TTM 213.9m / Interest Expense TTM 327.9m) |
| A: -0.27 (Total Current Assets 874.2m - Total Current Liabilities 5.07b) / Total Assets 15.7b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 1.27b / Total Assets 15.7b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 213.9m / Avg Total Assets 15.8b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 2.14b / Total Liabilities 13.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.23 = CCC |
As of July 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 39.41 with a total of 301,788 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.60%, over one month by +3.79%, over three months by +7.25% and over the past year by +31.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 37.60 (which is 4.6% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Hilltop Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HTH.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 40.3 | 2.3% |
P/E Trailing = 14.5627
P/E Forward = 13.4953
P/S = 1.7733
P/B = 1.0456
P/EG = 0.6082
Revenue TTM = 1.59b USD
EBIT TTM = 213.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 226.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 148.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.05b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.42b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 106.2m
Net Debt = -1.46b USD (calculated: Debt 1.42b - CCE 2.88b)
Enterprise Value = 778.4m USD (2.24b + Debt 1.42b - CCE 2.88b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.65 (Ebit TTM 213.9m / Interest Expense TTM 327.9m)
EV/FCF = -5.30x (Enterprise Value 778.4m / FCF TTM -146.7m)
FCF Yield = -18.85% (FCF TTM -146.7m / Enterprise Value 778.4m)
FCF Margin = -9.22% (FCF TTM -146.7m / Revenue TTM 1.59b)
Net Margin = 10.13% (Net Income TTM 161.3m / Revenue TTM 1.59b)
Gross Margin = 79.42% ((Revenue TTM 1.59b - Cost of Revenue TTM 327.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 80.16% (prev 78.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.05 (Enterprise Value 778.4m / Total Assets 15.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 23.17% (Interest Expense 327.9m / Debt 1.42b)
Taxrate = 22.14% (47.4m / 213.9m)
NOPAT = 166.5m (EBIT 213.9m * (1 - 22.14%))
Current Ratio = 0.17 (Total Current Assets 874.2m / Total Current Liabilities 5.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.66 (Debt 1.42b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.14b)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.45 (Net Debt -1.46b / EBITDA 226.8m)
Debt / FCF = 9.97 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -1.46b / FCF TTM -146.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.17b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.02% (Net Income 161.3m / Total Assets 15.7b)
RoE = 7.42% (Net Income TTM 161.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.17b)
RoCE = 9.20% (EBIT 213.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.17b + L.T.Debt 148.6m))
RoIC = 1.06% (NOPAT 166.5m / Invested Capital 15.7b)
WACC = 11.97% (E(2.24b)/V(3.66b) * Re(8.14%) + D(1.42b)/V(3.66b) * Rd(23.17%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -88.36 | Cagr: -4.15%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -146.7m)
EPS Correlation: 68.61 | EPS CAGR: 10.80% | SUE: 1.08 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 87.08 | Revenue CAGR: 3.86% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=-1.01% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.64 | Chg30d=-0.77% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.38 | Chg30d=-0.21% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+17.5% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.40 | Chg30d=+0.63% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+1.2% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +80% (up=12, down=0)