HTH Stock Analysis: Hilltop Holdings | NYSE
Financial Conglomerates | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.108m USD | 12M Return: 18.1% | US4327481010 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 11.6M
EPS Trend: 80.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 72.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTH) is a Dallas, Texas-based financial services company incorporated in 1998 that operates through three core segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment delivers a full suite of deposit products, consumer and commercial lending (including mortgage, commercial real estate, agricultural, and construction loans), treasury management, and wealth services. The Broker-Dealer segment provides public finance, investment banking, fixed-income trading and underwriting, clearing, and securities lending services, while the Mortgage Origination segment offers conforming, jumbo, FHA, VA, USDA, and adjustable-rate mortgage products. As a bank holding company classified within the Regional Banks sub-industry, Hilltop typically generates revenue through net interest income, mortgage origination fees, and broker-dealer commissions, with its multi-segment structure providing diversification across interest-rate-sensitive and fee-based business lines.
- Mortgage origination volume declines as rates remain elevated
- Net interest margin compresses with Fed rate cuts
- Texas commercial real estate loan exposure raises credit risk concerns
| Net Income: 140.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -456.3% < 20% (prev -563.8%; Δ 107.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 187.9m > Net Income 140.8m |
| Net Debt (-2.84b) to EBITDA (197.2m): -14.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (57.1m) vs 12m ago -8.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.71% > 18% (prev 76.88%; Δ 2.83% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.75% > 50% (prev 9.95%; Δ -0.19% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.64 > 6 (EBIT TTM 188.8m / Interest Expense TTM 296.1m) |
| A: -0.44 (Total Current Assets 6.44b - Total Current Liabilities 13.5b) / Total Assets 16.2b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 1.27b / Total Assets 16.2b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 188.8m / Avg Total Assets 15.9b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 2.10b / Total Liabilities 14.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.37 = D |
| DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 1.76b/1.52b, Revenue 1.55b/1.55b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 76.88% / 79.71%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.59 / AQ_t-1 0.72) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 1.55b / 1.55b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 140.8m - CFO 187.9m) / TA 16.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 37.83 with a total of 326,844 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.45%, over one month by -1.61%, over three months by -4.32% and over the past year by +18.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 36.90 (which is 2.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Hilltop Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HTH.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 41 | 8.4% |
P/E Trailing = 15.4667
P/E Forward = 13.4953
P/S = 1.7042
P/B = 1.0073
P/EG = 0.6082
Revenue TTM = 1.55b USD
EBIT TTM = 188.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 197.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 148.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 825.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 112.4m
Net Debt = -2.84b USD (calculated: Debt 1.20b - CCE 4.04b)
Enterprise Value = 2.11b USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.64 (Ebit TTM 188.8m / Interest Expense TTM 296.1m)
EV/FCF = 12.43x (Enterprise Value 2.11b / FCF TTM 169.6m)
FCF Yield = 8.05% (FCF TTM 169.6m / Enterprise Value 2.11b)
FCF Margin = 10.93% (FCF TTM 169.6m / Revenue TTM 1.55b)
Net Margin = 9.08% (Net Income TTM 140.8m / Revenue TTM 1.55b)
Gross Margin = 79.71% ((Revenue TTM 1.55b - Cost of Revenue TTM 314.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.99% (prev 81.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.13 (Enterprise Value 2.11b / Total Assets 16.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 24.70% (Interest Expense 296.1m / Debt 1.20b)
Taxrate = 22.57% (42.6m / 188.8m)
NOPAT = 146.2m (EBIT 188.8m * (1 - 22.57%))
Current Ratio = 0.48 (Total Current Assets 6.44b / Total Current Liabilities 13.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.57 (Debt 1.20b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = -14.39 (Net Debt -2.84b / EBITDA 197.2m)
Debt / FCF = -16.72 (Net Debt -2.84b / FCF TTM 169.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.13b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.89% (Net Income 140.8m / Total Assets 16.2b)
RoE = 6.60% (Net Income TTM 140.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.13b)
RoCE = 8.27% (EBIT 188.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.13b + L.T.Debt 148.8m))
RoIC = 4.25% (NOPAT 146.2m / Invested Capital 3.44b)
WACC = 11.35% (E(2.11b)/V(3.31b) * Re(6.92%) + D(1.20b)/V(3.31b) * Rd(24.70%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 6.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.44 | Cagr: -5.62%
[DCF] Terminal Value 66.32% ; FCFF base≈167.1m ; Y1≈173.1m ; Y5≈195.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 85.04 (EV 1.99b - Net Debt -2.84b = Equity 4.83b / Shares 56.8m; r=11.35% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 3.81% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 80.04 | EPS CAGR: 18.17% | SUE: -1.46 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 72.20 | Revenue CAGR: 1.66% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-8.30% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.21 | Chg30d=-8.42% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+9.3% | GrowthRev=-0.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.44 | Chg30d=-2.30% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.3% | GrowthRev=+2.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +22% (up=4, down=2)