HUM Stock Analysis: Humana | NYSE
Healthcare Plans | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 46.634m USD | 12M Return: 31.3% | US4448591028 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 435M
EPS Trend: -84.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 98.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Humana Inc. (NYSE: HUM) is a U.S.-based managed health care company headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, founded in 1961 and formerly known as Extendicare Inc. before adopting its current name in April 1974. The company operates through two main segments: Insurance and CenterWell, generating revenue primarily from premiums on health and specialty insurance products sold across the United States.
The Insurance segment is Humanas largest business, centered on Medicare Advantage plans-privately administered alternatives to traditional Medicare, often including prescription drug coverage and supplemental benefits-as well as Medicare Part D stand-alone drug plans, Medicare supplement insurance, and specialty products such as dental, vision, life, and disability coverage. The segment also includes administrative services for military personnel and dependents (TRICARE) and pharmacy benefit management services. The managed care model used in Medicare Advantage involves capitated payment arrangements, where insurers receive a fixed per-member amount from the government to provide care, creating incentives for cost efficiency.
The CenterWell segment represents Humanas push into integrated care delivery, operating senior-focused primary care clinics (under the Conviva and CenterWell Senior Primary Care brands), home health services, pharmacy solutions, and hospice and post-acute care coordination. This segment reflects a broader industry trend among health insurers toward vertical integration, combining insurance with provider services to manage total cost of care and improve outcomes for aging populations.
- CMS Medicare Advantage rate cuts pressure insurance margins
- Medical loss ratio trends squeeze profitability across segments
- CenterWell senior primary care expansion drives value-based revenue growth
| Net Income: 1.28b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.72% < 20% (prev -2.27%; Δ 13.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 147.0m > Net Income 1.28b |
| Net Debt (-9.62b) to EBITDA (3.07b): -3.14 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (120.9m) vs 12m ago 0.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 13.65% > 18% (prev 15.03%; Δ -1.38% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 270.9% > 50% (prev 244.5%; Δ 26.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.29 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.32b / Interest Expense TTM 704.0m) |
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 40.1b - Total Current Liabilities 23.0b) / Total Assets 57.2b |
| B: 0.54 (Retained Earnings 30.7b / Total Assets 57.2b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 2.32b / Avg Total Assets 53.8b) |
| D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 19.2b / Total Liabilities 37.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.53 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 5.70b/4.50b, Revenue 146b/123b) |
| GMI: 1.10 (GM 15.03% / 13.65%) |
| AQI: 0.33 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.78) |
| SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 146b / 123b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 1.28b - CFO 147.0m) / TA 57.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 387.12 with a total of 2,240,016 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.96%, over one month by -3.96%, over three months by -2.31% and over the past year by +31.30%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 365.70 (which is 5.5% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Humana has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.85. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HUM.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 423.7 | 9.5% |
P/E Trailing = 36.9163
P/E Forward = 24.3309
P/S = 0.3201
P/B = 2.3424
P/EG = 1.2545
Revenue TTM = 146b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.32b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.07b USD
Long Term Debt = 12.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.27b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.2b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -9.62b USD (calculated: Debt 14.2b - CCE 23.9b)
Enterprise Value = 37.0b USD (46.6b + Debt 14.2b - CCE 23.9b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.29 (Ebit TTM 2.32b / Interest Expense TTM 704.0m)
EV/FCF = 21.86x (Enterprise Value 37.0b / FCF TTM 1.69b)
FCF Yield = 4.57% (FCF TTM 1.69b / Enterprise Value 37.0b)
FCF Margin = 1.16% (FCF TTM 1.69b / Revenue TTM 146b)
Net Margin = 0.88% (Net Income TTM 1.28b / Revenue TTM 146b)
Gross Margin = 13.65% ((Revenue TTM 146b - Cost of Revenue TTM 126b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.45% (prev 14.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 37.0b / Total Assets 57.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.94% (Interest Expense 704.0m / Debt 14.2b)
Taxrate = 18.46% (298.0m / 1.61b)
NOPAT = 1.89b (EBIT 2.32b * (1 - 18.46%))
Current Ratio = 1.12 (Total Current Assets 40.1b / Total Current Liabilities 35.9b)
Debt / Equity = 0.74 (Debt 14.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.14 (Net Debt -9.62b / EBITDA 3.07b)
Debt / FCF = -5.68 (Net Debt -9.62b / FCF TTM 1.69b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.5b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.38% (Net Income 1.28b / Total Assets 57.2b)
RoE = 6.91% (Net Income TTM 1.28b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.5b)
RoCE = 7.61% (EBIT 2.32b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.5b + L.T.Debt 12.0b))
RoIC = 6.48% (NOPAT 1.89b / Invested Capital 29.2b)
WACC = 6.68% (E(46.6b)/V(60.9b) * Re(7.49%) + D(14.2b)/V(60.9b) * Rd(4.94%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 7.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -44.51 | Cagr: -0.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈1.90b ; Y1≈1.67b ; Y5≈1.35b
[DCF] Fair Price = 260.2 (EV 21.6b - Net Debt -9.62b = Equity 31.2b / Shares 120.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -83.96 | EPS CAGR: -15.73% | SUE: 2.51 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 98.82 | Revenue CAGR: 12.15% | SUE: 0.85 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-1.00 | Chg30d=-5.51% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=23
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.15 | Chg30d=+0.02% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-46.6% | GrowthRev=+25.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=16.59 | Chg30d=+0.15% | Revisions=+59% | GrowthEPS=+81.2% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +57% (up=30, down=7)