(IHG) InterContinental Hotels - Ratings and Ratios
Hotels, Franchising, Loyalty, Management
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.12% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.05% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 16.31% |
| Payout Consistency | 68.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 55.5% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 21.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 34.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.02% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.38 |
| Alpha | -0.21 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.348 |
| Beta | 0.787 |
| Beta Downside | 0.673 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.13% |
| Mean DD | 6.01% |
| Median DD | 5.09% |
Description: IHG InterContinental Hotels October 16, 2025
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (NYSE: IHG) owns, manages, franchises, and leases a portfolio of hotel properties across the United Kingdom, United States, and more than 100 other countries, operating under 20+ brands ranging from luxury (Six Senses, Regent) to mid-scale (Holiday Inn, Holiday Inn Express) and extended-stay concepts (Staybridge Suites, Candlewood Suites). The company also runs the IHG Rewards loyalty program, which had roughly 115 million active members as of Q2 2024.
Key performance indicators that signal IHG’s near-term outlook include a 2024 RevPAR growth of 7 % year-over-year, an occupancy rate of 71 % in the first half of the year, and a pipeline of approximately 500 new hotels slated to open by 2027, which should lift franchise revenue and improve asset-light margins.
Sector-wide drivers affecting IHG are the rebound in discretionary travel spending as consumer confidence rises, the sensitivity of hotel demand to real-interest-rate movements (which influence both corporate travel budgets and consumer financing for vacations), and the ongoing shift toward loyalty-driven booking channels that reward brands with higher direct-booking shares.
For a deeper quantitative dive into IHG’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find the data tools on ValueRay useful for independent research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income (1.39b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 564.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.32 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.37pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -4.69% (prev -1.06%; Δ -3.63pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.62b > Net Income 1.39b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (3.49b) to EBITDA (2.41b) ratio: 1.45 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.79 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (157.8m) change vs 12m ago -4.94% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 52.95% (prev 46.55%; Δ 6.40pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 193.0% (prev 119.6%; Δ 73.45pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 8.04 (EBITDA TTM 2.41b / Interest Expense TTM 277.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.97
| (A) -0.09 = (Total Current Assets 1.66b - Total Current Liabilities 2.10b) / Total Assets 4.94b |
| (B) -0.05 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -224.0m / Total Assets 4.94b |
| (C) 0.46 = EBIT TTM 2.23b / Avg Total Assets 4.88b |
| (D) -0.35 = Book Value of Equity -2.64b / Total Liabilities 7.58b |
| Total Rating: 1.97 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.92
| 1. Piotroski 9.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.93% |
| 3. FCF Margin 16.57% |
| 4. Debt/Equity -1.55 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.45 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 150.9)% |
| 7. RoE -61.12% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 79.05% |
| 9. EPS Trend 16.79% |
What is the price of IHG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.84%, over one month by +8.10%, over three months by +12.27% and over the past year by +10.85%.
Is IHG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the IHG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 120.7 | -11% |
| Analysts Target Price | 120.7 | -11% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 170.5 | 25.7% |
IHG Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 26.7415
P/E Forward = 21.7865
P/S = 3.7122
P/EG = 0.9914
Beta = 0.699
Revenue TTM = 9.41b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.23b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.41b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.25b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 474.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.10b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.49b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 22.49b USD (19.01b + Debt 4.10b - CCE 619.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.04 (Ebit TTM 2.23b / Interest Expense TTM 277.3m)
FCF Yield = 6.93% (FCF TTM 1.56b / Enterprise Value 22.49b)
FCF Margin = 16.57% (FCF TTM 1.56b / Revenue TTM 9.41b)
Net Margin = 14.79% (Net Income TTM 1.39b / Revenue TTM 9.41b)
Gross Margin = 52.95% ((Revenue TTM 9.41b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.43b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.49% (prev 93.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.55 (Enterprise Value 22.49b / Total Assets 4.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.24% (Interest Expense 91.8m / Debt 4.10b)
Taxrate = 25.91% (165.4m / 638.4m)
NOPAT = 1.65b (EBIT 2.23b * (1 - 25.91%))
Current Ratio = 0.79 (Total Current Assets 1.66b / Total Current Liabilities 2.10b)
Debt / Equity = -1.55 (negative equity) (Debt 4.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -2.64b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.45 (Net Debt 3.49b / EBITDA 2.41b)
Debt / FCF = 2.24 (Net Debt 3.49b / FCF TTM 1.56b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -2.28b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 28.19% (Net Income 1.39b / Total Assets 4.94b)
RoE = -61.12% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 1.39b / Total Stockholder Equity -2.28b)
RoCE = 229.6% (EBIT 2.23b / Capital Employed (Equity -2.28b + L.T.Debt 3.25b))
RoIC = 158.6% (NOPAT 1.65b / Invested Capital 1.04b)
WACC = 7.63% (E(19.01b)/V(23.11b) * Re(8.92%) + D(4.10b)/V(23.11b) * Rd(2.24%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.92% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.50%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.65% ; FCFE base≈1.40b ; Y1≈1.73b ; Y5≈2.95b
Fair Price DCF = 282.8 (DCF Value 42.58b / Shares Outstanding 150.6m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 16.79 | EPS CAGR: -11.39% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 79.05 | Revenue CAGR: 32.51% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for IHG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle