(INSP) Inspire Medical Systems - Overview
Stock: Implantable Neurostimulator, Breathing Sensor, Programmer
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 66.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.18 |
| Alpha | -81.52 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.084 |
| Beta Downside | 0.909 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 79.88% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.47 |
Description: INSP Inspire Medical Systems January 11, 2026
Inspire Medical Systems (NYSE: INSP) develops and markets the Inspire system, a minimally invasive, closed-loop hypoglossal nerve stimulation device designed to treat moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the U.S. and select international markets. The technology continuously monitors breathing and delivers timed nerve stimulation to keep the airway open, positioning the company as a non-CPAP alternative in the OSA therapeutic landscape.
Key operational metrics (FY 2023) show $124 million in revenue, a 38 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by higher device shipments and expanded payer coverage; the company reported a net loss of $48 million, reflecting ongoing R&D and commercial scaling costs. The OSA market is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~7 % through 2030, supported by rising prevalence of sleep disorders and increasing insurance reimbursement for neurostimulation therapies. Competitive pressure from emerging oral appliance manufacturers and potential FDA-cleared alternatives could affect market share, making payer adoption rates a critical driver of future performance.
For a data-rich, quantitative deep-dive on INSP’s valuation assumptions and scenario modeling, consider reviewing the analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 44.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 53.89% < 20% (prev 67.27%; Δ -13.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 133.7m > Net Income 44.6m |
| Net Debt (-80.3m) to EBITDA (76.6m): -1.05 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (29.6m) vs 12m ago -3.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.92% > 18% (prev 0.85%; Δ 8407 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 110.1% > 50% (prev 94.90%; Δ 15.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1730 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 76.6m / Interest Expense TTM 37.0k) |
Altman Z'' 1.16
| A: 0.59 (Total Current Assets 586.5m - Total Current Liabilities 110.8m) / Total Assets 807.7m |
| B: -0.35 (Retained Earnings -282.6m / Total Assets 807.7m) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 64.0m / Avg Total Assets 802.0m) |
| D: -2.00 (Book Value of Equity -281.9m / Total Liabilities 141.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.16 = BB |
Beneish M -3.09
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 108.0m/89.7m, Revenue 882.6m/755.6m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 84.92% / 84.77%) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.13 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 882.6m / 755.6m) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 44.6m - CFO 133.7m) / TA 807.7m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of INSP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -16.48%, over one month by -30.77%, over three months by -20.79% and over the past year by -65.83%.
Is INSP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the INSP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 124.5 | 89.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 124.5 | 89.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 46.9 | -28.5% |
INSP Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 50.2513
P/S = 2.4159
P/B = 3.2023
Revenue TTM = 882.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 64.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 76.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 32.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.27m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -80.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.84b USD (2.13b + Debt 32.6m - CCE 322.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1730 (Ebit TTM 64.0m / Interest Expense TTM 37.0k)
EV/FCF = 18.64x (Enterprise Value 1.84b / FCF TTM 98.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.36% (FCF TTM 98.8m / Enterprise Value 1.84b)
FCF Margin = 11.20% (FCF TTM 98.8m / Revenue TTM 882.6m)
Net Margin = 5.05% (Net Income TTM 44.6m / Revenue TTM 882.6m)
Gross Margin = 84.92% ((Revenue TTM 882.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 133.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.85% (prev 84.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.28 (Enterprise Value 1.84b / Total Assets 807.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.03% (Interest Expense 11.0k / Debt 32.6m)
Taxrate = 26.71% (3.62m / 13.6m)
NOPAT = 46.9m (EBIT 64.0m * (1 - 26.71%))
Current Ratio = 5.29 (Total Current Assets 586.5m / Total Current Liabilities 110.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 32.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 666.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.05 (Net Debt -80.3m / EBITDA 76.6m)
Debt / FCF = -0.81 (Net Debt -80.3m / FCF TTM 98.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 667.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.56% (Net Income 44.6m / Total Assets 807.7m)
RoE = 6.68% (Net Income TTM 44.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 667.4m)
RoCE = 9.15% (EBIT 64.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 667.4m + L.T.Debt 32.6m))
RoIC = 7.03% (NOPAT 46.9m / Invested Capital 667.4m)
WACC = 9.76% (E(2.13b)/V(2.16b) * Re(9.91%) + D(32.6m)/V(2.16b) * Rd(0.03%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 62.71% ; FCFF base≈74.6m ; Y1≈49.0m ; Y5≈22.3m
Fair Price DCF = 14.30 (EV 335.3m - Net Debt -80.3m = Equity 415.6m / Shares 29.1m; r=9.76% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 68.88 | EPS CAGR: 106.6% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.00 | Revenue CAGR: 32.39% | SUE: 1.51 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=-0.045 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.67 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+7.3% | Growth Revenue=+10.2%