IOT Stock Analysis: Samsara | NYSE
Software - Infrastructure | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 18.146m USD | 12M Return: -21.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 252M
Qual. Beats: 15
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 14
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 4.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Samsara Inc. (NYSE: IOT) is a provider of Internet of Things (IoT) solutions that connect physical operations data to its Connected Operations Platform, serving customers across the United States and internationally. The companys platform is built around a Data Platform that ingests, aggregates, and enriches data from IoT devices and third-party systems, with embedded capabilities for AI, workflows, analytics, alerts, API connections, and data security. Its main application areas include video-based safety, telematics (with features such as GPS tracking, routing, fuel management, and electric vehicle planning), and site visibility for remote monitoring of physical locations. Samsara serves a broad range of industries, including transportation, construction, logistics, manufacturing, utilities and energy, government, healthcare and education, and food and beverage. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Within the Information Technology sector, Samsara operates in the Application Software sub-industry as part of the broader Industrial IoT (IIoT) market, which focuses on instrumenting physical assets and field operations with connected sensors and cloud-based software. Like most enterprise software peers in this segment, the company typically generates revenue through a subscription-based model, combining hardware (sensors and gateways) with recurring software subscriptions tied to its platform.
- Subscription revenue growth drives path to operating profitability
- AI video safety products accelerate average revenue per customer expansion
- Competition from Geotab and Motive pressures pricing and win rates
| Net Income: 57.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 32.72% < 20% (prev 29.33%; Δ 3.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 265.0m > Net Income 57.5m |
| Net Debt (-735.3m) to EBITDA (97.2m): -7.56 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (587.7m) vs 12m ago 3.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 76.25% > 18% (prev 76.57%; Δ -0.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.84% > 50% (prev 64.40%; Δ 9.44% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 1.48b - Total Current Liabilities 912.1m) / Total Assets 2.61b |
| B: -0.60 (Retained Earnings -1.57b / Total Assets 2.61b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 70.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.34b) |
| D: 1.36 (Book Value of Equity 1.51b / Total Liabilities 1.11b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.09 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 285.0m/216.5m, Revenue 1.73b/1.34b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 76.57% / 76.25%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.40) |
| SGI: 1.30 (Revenue 1.73b / 1.34b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 57.5m - CFO 265.0m) / TA 2.61b) |
| Beneish M = -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 32.10 with a total of 6,685,514 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.74%, over one month by -1.36%, over three months by +1.63% and over the past year by -21.72%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.50 (which is 8.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Samsara has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy IOT.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 44.8 | 39.5% |
P/E Trailing = 311.4
P/E Forward = 43.8596
P/S = 10.4852
P/B = 12.0362
Revenue TTM = 1.73b USD
EBIT TTM = 70.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 97.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 57.0m USD (estimated: total debt 69.0m - short term 12.1m)
Short Term Debt = 12.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 69.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 69.0m already included)
Net Debt = -735.3m USD (calculated: Debt 69.0m - CCE 804.3m)
Enterprise Value = 17.4b USD (18.1b + Debt 69.0m - CCE 804.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 70.4m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 74.11x (Enterprise Value 17.4b / FCF TTM 234.9m)
FCF Yield = 1.35% (FCF TTM 234.9m / Enterprise Value 17.4b)
FCF Margin = 13.58% (FCF TTM 234.9m / Revenue TTM 1.73b)
Net Margin = 3.32% (Net Income TTM 57.5m / Revenue TTM 1.73b)
Gross Margin = 76.25% ((Revenue TTM 1.73b - Cost of Revenue TTM 411.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.42% (prev 76.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.66 (Enterprise Value 17.4b / Total Assets 2.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 69.0m)
Taxrate = 18.27% (12.9m / 70.4m)
NOPAT = 57.5m (EBIT 70.4m * (1 - 18.27%))
Current Ratio = 1.62 (Total Current Assets 1.48b / Total Current Liabilities 912.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 69.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.51b)
Debt / EBITDA = -7.56 (Net Debt -735.3m / EBITDA 97.2m)
Debt / FCF = -3.13 (Net Debt -735.3m / FCF TTM 234.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.36b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.45% (Net Income 57.5m / Total Assets 2.61b)
RoE = 4.22% (Net Income TTM 57.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.36b)
RoCE = 4.96% (EBIT 70.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.36b + L.T.Debt 57.0m))
RoIC = 3.53% (NOPAT 57.5m / Invested Capital 1.63b)
WACC = 11.47% (E(18.1b)/V(18.2b) * Re(11.51%) + D(69.0m)/V(18.2b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 11.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 100.00 | Cagr: 3.56%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.58% ; FCFF base≈196.4m ; Y1≈225.1m ; Y5≈331.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.58 (EV 3.21b - Net Debt -735.3m = Equity 3.94b / Shares 372.8m; r=11.47% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 3.55 | # QB: 15
Revenue Correlation: 99.75 | Revenue CAGR: 32.90% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 14
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=+6.70% | Revisions=+79% | Analysts=17
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-4.75% | Revisions=-60% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=0.71 | Chg30d=+4.21% | Revisions=+81% | GrowthEPS=+26.4% | GrowthRev=+24.2%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=0.89 | Chg30d=+6.02% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+26.4% | GrowthRev=+19.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +81%