IVR Stock Analysis: Mortgage Capital | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 764m USD | 12M Return: 25.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 20.6M
EPS Trend: -93.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 88.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) is a U.S.-based mortgage REIT that invests in, finances, and manages residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (RMBS and CMBS), including both agency-guaranteed and non-agency issues. Its portfolio also includes U.S. Treasury securities, real estate-related financing arrangements, to-be-announced (TBA) forward contracts, and commercial mortgage loans. The company is structured as a REIT, requiring it to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders to maintain its tax-advantaged status. Incorporated in 2008 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, IVR trades on the NYSE as a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $791 million.
As a mortgage REIT, IVR operates within a sector that primarily generates revenue from the net interest spread between the yield on its mortgage-related assets and the cost of funding them, typically employing meaningful leverage to amplify returns. Mortgage REITs are particularly sensitive to interest rate movements, credit spreads, and prepayment risk, all of which directly influence book value and distributable income.
- Net interest margin compresses as repo funding costs outpace MBS yields
- Fed rate cuts accelerate agency MBS prepayment speeds and erode portfolio yields
- Commercial mortgage credit losses weigh on book value and distributable income
| Net Income: 61.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.88k% < 20% (prev -1.42k%; Δ -468.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 164.4m > Net Income 61.8m |
| Net Debt (5.29b) to EBITDA (171.3m): 30.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (87.5m) vs 12m ago 39.64% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.40% > 18% (prev 83.07%; Δ -23.67% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.52% > 50% (prev 6.14%; Δ -1.63% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.78 > 6 (EBIT TTM 170.6m / Interest Expense TTM 217.4m) |
| A: -0.84 (Total Current Assets 52.6m - Total Current Liabilities 5.34b) / Total Assets 6.27b |
| B: -0.58 (Retained Earnings -3.63b / Total Assets 6.27b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 170.6m / Avg Total Assets 6.21b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 876.4m / Total Liabilities 5.39b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -7.06 = D |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.94 with a total of 1,489,069 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.15%, over one month by +1.54%, over three months by -1.01% and over the past year by +25.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.60 (which is 4.3% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Mortgage Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.17. Therefore, it is recommended to hold IVR.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 8.5 | 7.1% |
P/E Trailing = 10.1039
P/E Forward = 3.5199
P/S = 9.4875
P/B = 1.0824
P/EG = 7.1959
Revenue TTM = 280.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 170.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 171.3m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 5.34b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.34b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.29b USD (calculated: Debt 5.34b - CCE 52.6m)
Enterprise Value = 6.05b USD (764.0m + Debt 5.34b - CCE 52.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.78 (Ebit TTM 170.6m / Interest Expense TTM 217.4m)
EV/FCF = 36.80x (Enterprise Value 6.05b / FCF TTM 164.4m)
FCF Yield = 2.72% (FCF TTM 164.4m / Enterprise Value 6.05b)
FCF Margin = 58.57% (FCF TTM 164.4m / Revenue TTM 280.7m)
Net Margin = 22.00% (Net Income TTM 61.8m / Revenue TTM 280.7m)
Gross Margin = 59.40% ((Revenue TTM 280.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 114.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 87.96% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 6.05b / Total Assets 6.27b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.07% (Interest Expense 217.4m / Debt 5.34b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 134.8m (EBIT 170.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.01 (Total Current Assets 52.6m / Total Current Liabilities 5.34b)
Debt / Equity = 6.09 (Debt 5.34b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 876.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 30.86 (Net Debt 5.29b / EBITDA 171.3m)
Debt / FCF = 32.15 (Net Debt 5.29b / FCF TTM 164.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 788.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.99% (Net Income 61.8m / Total Assets 6.27b)
RoE = 7.84% (Net Income TTM 61.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 788.2m)
RoCE = 21.65% (EBIT 170.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 788.2m + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 2.15% (NOPAT 134.8m / Invested Capital 6.26b)
WACC = 3.91% (E(764.0m)/V(6.10b) * Re(8.78%) + D(5.34b)/V(6.10b) * Rd(4.07%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 30.05%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.72% ; FCFF base≈156.7m ; Y1≈177.1m ; Y5≈251.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.80b - Net Debt 5.29b = -1.49b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -93.85 | EPS CAGR: -55.62% | SUE: -2.49 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 88.88 | Revenue CAGR: 33.78% | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=+7.81% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=+3.58% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.08 | Chg30d=+3.60% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-11.4% | GrowthRev=+13.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.06 | Chg30d=-3.14% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-0.8% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -40% (up=0, down=2)