IVR Stock Analysis: Mortgage Capital | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 619m USD | 12M Return: -8% | US46131B7047 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.4M
EPS Trend: -98.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 88.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) is a U.S.-focused mortgage REIT that invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and related assets. Its holdings include residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (both agency-guaranteed and non-agency), U.S. Treasury securities, commercial mortgage loans, real estate-related financing arrangements, and to-be-announced forward contracts on RMBS. As a REIT, the company is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders, a structure typical of mortgage REITs that generate returns primarily from the spread between asset yields and their financing costs rather than from property operations. Incorporated in 2008 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, IVR operates within the broader Financials sector as a small-cap mortgage REIT.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts interest rates
- Mortgage spread widening lifts book value and dividend coverage
- Repo financing costs rise pressuring mortgage REIT profitability
| Net Income: 120.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.91k% < 20% (prev -1.07k%; Δ -841.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 166.0m > Net Income 120.1m |
| Net Debt (6.14b) to EBITDA (285.2m): 21.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (102.9m) vs 12m ago 55.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.25% > 18% (prev 72.93%; Δ 6.32% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.91% > 50% (prev 7.80%; Δ -2.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.29 > 6 (EBIT TTM 284.6m / Interest Expense TTM 219.8m) |
| A: -0.82 (Total Current Assets 287.7m - Total Current Liabilities 6.21b) / Total Assets 7.24b |
| B: -0.50 (Retained Earnings -3.63b / Total Assets 7.24b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 284.6m / Avg Total Assets 6.32b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 990.3m / Total Liabilities 6.25b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -6.54 = D |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.56 with a total of 3,980,325 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.07%, over one month by -15.05%, over three months by -27.76% and over the past year by -8.02%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.30 (which is 4.7% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Mortgage Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.17. Therefore, it is recommended to hold IVR.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 8.2 | 46.9% |
P/E Trailing = 3.6645
P/E Forward = 3.7779
P/S = 4.44
P/B = 0.8512
P/EG = 7.1959
Revenue TTM = 310.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 284.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 285.2m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 6.21b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.14b USD (calculated: Debt 6.21b - CCE 73.4m)
Enterprise Value = 6.76b USD (619.1m + Debt 6.21b - CCE 73.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.29 (Ebit TTM 284.6m / Interest Expense TTM 219.8m)
EV/FCF = 40.69x (Enterprise Value 6.76b / FCF TTM 166.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.46% (FCF TTM 166.0m / Enterprise Value 6.76b)
FCF Margin = 53.47% (FCF TTM 166.0m / Revenue TTM 310.5m)
Net Margin = 38.68% (Net Income TTM 120.1m / Revenue TTM 310.5m)
Gross Margin = 79.25% ((Revenue TTM 310.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 64.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 94.81% (prev 87.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 6.76b / Total Assets 7.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.54% (Interest Expense 219.8m / Debt 6.21b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 224.8m (EBIT 284.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.05 (Total Current Assets 287.7m / Total Current Liabilities 6.21b)
Debt / Equity = 6.27 (Debt 6.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 990.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 21.52 (Net Debt 6.14b / EBITDA 285.2m)
Debt / FCF = 36.97 (Net Debt 6.14b / FCF TTM 166.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 858.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.90% (Net Income 120.1m / Total Assets 7.24b)
RoE = 13.99% (Net Income TTM 120.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 858.5m)
RoCE = 33.15% (EBIT 284.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 858.5m + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 3.11% (NOPAT 224.8m / Invested Capital 7.22b)
WACC = 3.34% (E(619.1m)/V(6.83b) * Re(8.74%) + D(6.21b)/V(6.83b) * Rd(3.54%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 90.96 | Cagr: 39.82%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.52% ; FCFF base≈160.7m ; Y1≈173.0m ; Y5≈210.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.23b - Net Debt 6.14b = -2.90b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -98.08 | EPS CAGR: -40.38% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.88 | Revenue CAGR: 33.78% | SUE: 0.13 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.94 | Chg30d=-0.09% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=-17.2% | GrowthRev=+19.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.73 | Chg30d=-0.67% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=-10.9% | GrowthRev=+8.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -56% (up=2, down=11)