JOE Stock Analysis: St Joe | NYSE
Real Estate - Diversified | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.955m USD | 12M Return: 21.5% | US7901481009 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 15.3M
EPS Trend: 87.8%
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
The St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is a U.S. real estate development, asset management, and operating company headquartered in Panama City Beach, Florida. Founded in 1936, it conducts business through three segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial. The Residential segment develops communities into homesites for sale primarily to homebuilders, while also selling completed homes, entitled or undeveloped land, and providing marketing services. The Hospitality segment owns and operates a portfolio that includes a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, marinas, retail outlets, hotels, food and beverage operations, and gulf-front vacation rentals. The Commercial segment leases commercial, multi-family, and senior living properties, manages the planning and sale of commercial and rural land for various uses, harvests and sells timber products such as pulpwood and sawtimber, and operates ancillary real estate brokerage, title insurance, and insurance agency businesses. Notably, St. Joe controls a substantial land holdings in Northwest Florida, giving it a unique vertically integrated model that spans land development, hospitality, and commercial real estate. As a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $3.7 billion, JOE is classified within the Real Estate sector, though its diverse operating segments and timber activities distinguish it from a typical multi-family residential REIT.
- Residential homesite sales track Florida housing demand and rates
- Hospitality revenue tied to Florida panhandle tourism trends
- Commercial leasing and land sales expand recurring income
| Net Income: 121.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.58% < 20% (prev 17.61%; Δ -8.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 188.3m > Net Income 121.3m |
| Net Debt (426.3m) to EBITDA (235.6m): 1.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (56.8m) vs 12m ago -1.91% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.51% > 18% (prev 62.97%; Δ 12.55% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.82% > 50% (prev 31.86%; Δ 3.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.80 > 6 (EBIT TTM 189.9m / Interest Expense TTM 27.9m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 176.5m - Total Current Liabilities 124.5m) / Total Assets 1.50b |
| B: 0.40 (Retained Earnings 600.1m / Total Assets 1.50b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 189.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.52b) |
| D: 1.06 (Book Value of Equity 765.1m / Total Liabilities 724.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.48 = A |
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 44.0m/38.0m, Revenue 543.0m/488.7m) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 62.97% / 75.51%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.86 / AQ_t-1 0.85) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 543.0m / 488.7m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 121.3m - CFO 188.3m) / TA 1.50b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 70.36 with a total of 139,540 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.81%, over one month by +6.29%, over three months by +3.44% and over the past year by +21.46%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 64.60 (which is 8.2% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
St Joe has no consensus analysts rating.
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | -73% |
P/E Trailing = 33.1611
P/E Forward = 50.2513
P/S = 7.2844
P/B = 5.1692
P/EG = -2.72
Revenue TTM = 543.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 189.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 235.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 540.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 544.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.68m
Net Debt = 426.3m USD (calculated: Debt 544.1m - CCE 117.9m)
Enterprise Value = 4.38b USD (3.96b + Debt 544.1m - CCE 117.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.80 (Ebit TTM 189.9m / Interest Expense TTM 27.9m)
EV/FCF = 24.78x (Enterprise Value 4.38b / FCF TTM 176.8m)
FCF Yield = 4.04% (FCF TTM 176.8m / Enterprise Value 4.38b)
FCF Margin = 32.57% (FCF TTM 176.8m / Revenue TTM 543.0m)
Net Margin = 22.33% (Net Income TTM 121.3m / Revenue TTM 543.0m)
Gross Margin = 75.51% ((Revenue TTM 543.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 132.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.64% (prev 46.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.93 (Enterprise Value 4.38b / Total Assets 1.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.14% (Interest Expense 27.9m / Debt 544.1m)
Taxrate = 8.05% (13.0m / 161.8m)
NOPAT = 174.6m (EBIT 189.9m * (1 - 8.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.42 (Total Current Assets 176.5m / Total Current Liabilities 124.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.71 (Debt 544.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 765.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.81 (Net Debt 426.3m / EBITDA 235.6m)
Debt / FCF = 2.41 (Net Debt 426.3m / FCF TTM 176.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 765.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.00% (Net Income 121.3m / Total Assets 1.50b)
RoE = 15.84% (Net Income TTM 121.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 765.4m)
RoCE = 14.54% (EBIT 189.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 765.4m + L.T.Debt 540.8m))
RoIC = 12.86% (NOPAT 174.6m / Invested Capital 1.36b)
WACC = 6.72% (E(3.96b)/V(4.50b) * Re(7.0%) + D(544.1m)/V(4.50b) * Rd(5.14%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 7.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.22 | Cagr: -1.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.26% ; FCFF base≈172.5m ; Y1≈182.6m ; Y5≈215.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 50.98 (EV 3.31b - Net Debt 426.3m = Equity 2.88b / Shares 56.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 6.55% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 87.83 | EPS CAGR: 25.05% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.34 | Revenue CAGR: 15.80% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0