JOE Stock Analysis: St Joe | NYSE
Real Estate - Diversified | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.833m USD | 12M Return: 35% | US7901481009 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 12.7M
EPS Trend: 71.0%
Rev. Trend: 92.9%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is a U.S.-based real estate development, asset management, and operating company headquartered in Panama City Beach, Florida, with a mid-cap market capitalization of approximately $3.79 billion. The company operates through three reporting segments: Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial, reflecting a diversified business model that spans land development, leisure operations, and income-producing properties.
The Residential segment focuses on converting large landholdings into homesites sold primarily to homebuilders, while also marketing parcels and completed homes to retail buyers on a limited basis. The Hospitality segment owns and operates a portfolio of leisure and lifestyle assets, including a private membership club, golf courses, beach clubs, marinas, hotels, food and beverage outlets, and gulf-front vacation rentals, and provides related management services. The Commercial segment leases multi-family, senior living, and other commercial properties, while also managing the planning, entitlement, and sale of commercial and rural land for retail, office, industrial, and self-storage uses. Notably, St. Joe also retains a forestry component, growing and selling pulpwood, sawtimber, and other forest products, and operates ancillary real estate services including brokerage, title insurance, and insurance agency operations.
As a member of the Real Estate sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Multi-Family Residential REITs), St. Joe differentiates itself from typical REIT peers through its integrated, vertically oriented model that combines active land development and operating businesses alongside rental real estate, all anchored on extensive landholdings in the Florida panhandle region. The company was incorporated in 1936 and has been public since its 1992 IPO.
- Residential homesite sales to homebuilders drive segment revenue
- Panama City Beach tourism fuels Hospitality segment growth
- Commercial leasing and land entitlements expand recurring income
| Net Income: 123.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.91 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.10% < 20% (prev 11.87%; Δ -7.76% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 216.8m > Net Income 123.0m |
| Net Debt (434.2m) to EBITDA (241.0m): 1.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.24 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (57.2m) vs 12m ago -1.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 81.76% > 18% (prev 53.16%; Δ 28.60% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.85% > 50% (prev 27.55%; Δ 8.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.74 > 6 (EBIT TTM 194.9m / Interest Expense TTM 28.9m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 117.3m - Total Current Liabilities 94.8m) / Total Assets 1.51b |
| B: 0.38 (Retained Earnings 572.3m / Total Assets 1.51b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 194.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.53b) |
| D: 1.04 (Book Value of Equity 764.5m / Total Liabilities 735.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.28 = A |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 59.8m/42.6m, Revenue 547.8m/426.6m) |
| GMI: 0.65 (GM 53.16% / 81.76%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 1.28 (Revenue 547.8m / 426.6m) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 123.0m - CFO 216.8m) / TA 1.51b) |
| Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 66.10 with a total of 228,400 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.65%, over one month by +6.45%, over three months by +5.81% and over the past year by +34.99%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 62.00 (which is 6.2% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
St Joe has no consensus analysts rating.
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | -71.3% |
P/E Trailing = 31.9052
P/E Forward = 50.2513
P/S = 6.9958
P/B = 5.0574
P/EG = -2.72
Revenue TTM = 547.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 194.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 241.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 549.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.47m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 551.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.16m
Net Debt = 434.2m USD (calculated: Debt 551.5m - CCE 117.3m)
Enterprise Value = 4.27b USD (3.83b + Debt 551.5m - CCE 117.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.74 (Ebit TTM 194.9m / Interest Expense TTM 28.9m)
EV/FCF = 21.66x (Enterprise Value 4.27b / FCF TTM 196.9m)
FCF Yield = 4.62% (FCF TTM 196.9m / Enterprise Value 4.27b)
FCF Margin = 35.95% (FCF TTM 196.9m / Revenue TTM 547.8m)
Net Margin = 22.46% (Net Income TTM 123.0m / Revenue TTM 547.8m)
Gross Margin = 81.76% ((Revenue TTM 547.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 99.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.23% (prev 38.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.83 (Enterprise Value 4.27b / Total Assets 1.51b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.24% (Interest Expense 28.9m / Debt 551.5m)
Taxrate = 8.36% (13.9m / 165.8m)
NOPAT = 178.6m (EBIT 194.9m * (1 - 8.36%))
Current Ratio = 0.99 (Total Current Assets 117.3m / Total Current Liabilities 118.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.72 (Debt 551.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 764.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.80 (Net Debt 434.2m / EBITDA 241.0m)
Debt / FCF = 2.20 (Net Debt 434.2m / FCF TTM 196.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 764.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.05% (Net Income 123.0m / Total Assets 1.51b)
RoE = 16.10% (Net Income TTM 123.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 764.3m)
RoCE = 14.84% (EBIT 194.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 764.3m + L.T.Debt 549.3m))
RoIC = 12.07% (NOPAT 178.6m / Invested Capital 1.48b)
WACC = 7.20% (E(3.83b)/V(4.38b) * Re(7.54%) + D(551.5m)/V(4.38b) * Rd(5.24%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 7.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.26 | Cagr: -0.89%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈174.8m ; Y1≈200.4m ; Y5≈294.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 70.33 (EV 4.44b - Net Debt 434.2m = Equity 4.00b / Shares 56.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 71.01 | EPS CAGR: 17.82% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.85 | Revenue CAGR: 15.37% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0