(KGS) Kodiak Gas Services - Ratings and Ratios
Compression, Gas Treating, Cooling, Station Construction
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.98% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 13.04% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 13.92% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 135.3% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 35.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 56.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.13% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.24 |
| Alpha | -30.76 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.33 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.448 |
| Beta | 1.234 |
| Beta Downside | 1.755 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.57% |
| Mean DD | 12.59% |
| Median DD | 8.11% |
Description: KGS Kodiak Gas Services January 12, 2026
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) owns and operates compression, gas-treating and cooling assets under long-term, primarily fixed-fee contracts that enable producers to gather natural gas and oil across the United States. The business is split into two segments: (1) **Contract Services**, which runs both company- and customer-owned compression infrastructure, and (2) **Other Services**, which offers ancillary, time-and-material work such as station construction, maintenance, freight and crane services.
According to the company’s 2023 Form 10-K, KGS generated roughly **$210 million of revenue** with an **EBITDA margin of ~21%**, reflecting the high-utilization nature of its fixed-revenue contracts (average plant utilization was about **85%** in 2023). The firm reported a **backlog of $155 million**, indicating a multi-year pipeline of contracted work that cushions short-term demand swings. Capital expenditures averaged **$30 million per year** over the past three years, mainly for equipment upgrades and new compression stations.
The segment’s performance is tightly linked to two macro drivers: (a) **U.S. natural-gas production volumes**, which set the demand for compression services, and (b) **regional pipeline capacity constraints**, which can increase the value of on-site compression to move gas to market. A recent industry report shows that U.S. dry-gas production grew **3.5% YoY in Q4 2023**, supporting a positive outlook for KGS’s contract volume growth, while ongoing **inflation-adjusted labor costs** remain a headwind for operating margins.
For a deeper, data-driven look at KGS’s valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay platform provides granular metrics and scenario analyses that can help you assess the stock’s upside potential.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 75.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.59% < 20% (prev 8.79%; Δ -9.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 523.4m > Net Income 75.0m |
| Net Debt (2.67b) to EBITDA (583.5m): 4.57 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.98 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (87.1m) vs 12m ago 3.28% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 46.66% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 4628 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.99% > 50% (prev 23.95%; Δ 5.04% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.55 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 583.5m / Interest Expense TTM 200.7m) |
Altman Z'' (< 1.1 .. > 2.6) 0.49
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 341.5m - Total Current Liabilities 349.0m) / Total Assets 4.37b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 31.6m / Total Assets 4.37b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 310.3m / Avg Total Assets 4.43b) |
| D: 0.01 (Book Value of Equity 30.1m / Total Liabilities 3.12b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.49 = B |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 60.97
| 1. Piotroski: 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 3.18% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 14.59% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 2.14 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: 4.57 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: -1.09% |
| 7. RoE: 5.67% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 95.11% |
| 9. EPS Trend: 48.59% |
What is the price of KGS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.76%, over one month by +8.29%, over three months by +14.66% and over the past year by -14.76%.
Is KGS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KGS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 43.8 | 10.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 43.8 | 10.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 48.8 | 22.9% |
KGS Fundamental Data Overview January 18, 2026
P/E Forward = 15.083
P/S = 2.5163
P/B = 2.5872
Revenue TTM = 1.28b USD
EBIT TTM = 310.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 583.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.61b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.67b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.67b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.90b USD (3.23b + Debt 2.67b - CCE 724.0k)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.55 (Ebit TTM 310.3m / Interest Expense TTM 200.7m)
EV/FCF = 31.47x (Enterprise Value 5.90b / FCF TTM 187.5m)
FCF Yield = 3.18% (FCF TTM 187.5m / Enterprise Value 5.90b)
FCF Margin = 14.59% (FCF TTM 187.5m / Revenue TTM 1.28b)
Net Margin = 5.84% (Net Income TTM 75.0m / Revenue TTM 1.28b)
Gross Margin = 46.66% ((Revenue TTM 1.28b - Cost of Revenue TTM 685.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 63.99% (prev 43.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.35 (Enterprise Value 5.90b / Total Assets 4.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.11% (Interest Expense 56.4m / Debt 2.67b)
Taxrate = 33.69% (25.6m / 75.9m)
NOPAT = 205.8m (EBIT 310.3m * (1 - 33.69%))
Current Ratio = 0.98 (Total Current Assets 341.5m / Total Current Liabilities 349.0m)
Debt / Equity = 2.14 (Debt 2.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.57 (Net Debt 2.67b / EBITDA 583.5m)
Debt / FCF = 14.23 (Net Debt 2.67b / FCF TTM 187.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.32b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.69% (Net Income 75.0m / Total Assets 4.37b)
RoE = 5.67% (Net Income TTM 75.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.32b)
RoCE = 7.89% (EBIT 310.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.32b + L.T.Debt 2.61b))
RoIC = 5.27% (NOPAT 205.8m / Invested Capital 3.90b)
WACC = 6.36% (E(3.23b)/V(5.90b) * Re(10.46%) + D(2.67b)/V(5.90b) * Rd(2.11%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 10.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 20.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.31% ; FCFF base≈187.5m ; Y1≈123.1m ; Y5≈56.2m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.56b - Net Debt 2.67b = -1.10b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 48.59 | EPS CAGR: 139.1% | SUE: -2.77 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.11 | Revenue CAGR: 20.44% | SUE: -0.39 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.53 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.35 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+29.2% | Growth Revenue=+7.2%
Additional Sources for KGS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle