(KGS) Kodiak Gas Services - Ratings and Ratios
Compression, Gas Treating, Cooling, Station Construction
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.90% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 13.04% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 1.6% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 55.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.37% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.02 |
| Alpha | -22.67 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.29 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.452 |
| Beta | 1.292 |
| Beta Downside | 1.836 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.57% |
| Mean DD | 12.13% |
| Median DD | 7.60% |
Description: KGS Kodiak Gas Services November 09, 2025
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (NYSE: KGS) operates contract compression, gas-treating, and cooling infrastructure for U.S. oil-and-gas producers, delivering primarily fixed-revenue contracts that enable the production and gathering of natural gas and oil.
The business is split into two segments: (1) **Contract Services**, which runs both company-owned and customer-owned compression assets under long-term agreements, and (2) **Other Services**, which offers ancillary support such as station construction, maintenance, overhaul, freight, and crane services on a time-and-material basis.
Key operational metrics that analysts watch include a **compression utilization rate of roughly 85 %** (up from 78 % in 2022) and an **EBITDA margin of about 22 %** for FY 2023, reflecting strong pricing power in a market where upstream drilling activity remains robust despite cyclical natural-gas price volatility.
Sector-wide, the demand for mid-stream compression capacity is closely tied to **U.S. shale production growth** (which has averaged ~2 % YoY over the past three years) and to **regional pipeline constraints** that push producers toward on-site compression solutions-both of which underpin KGS’s revenue outlook.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers granular financial and operational metrics that can help assess KGS’s upside potential.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (75.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 77.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 5.75pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -0.59% (prev 8.79%; Δ -9.38pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 523.4m > Net Income 75.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.67b) to EBITDA (583.5m) ratio: 4.57 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.98 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (87.1m) change vs 12m ago 3.28% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 46.66% (prev 37.89%; Δ 8.77pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 28.99% (prev 23.95%; Δ 5.04pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.55 (EBITDA TTM 583.5m / Interest Expense TTM 200.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.49
| (A) -0.00 = (Total Current Assets 341.5m - Total Current Liabilities 349.0m) / Total Assets 4.37b |
| (B) 0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 31.6m / Total Assets 4.37b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 310.3m / Avg Total Assets 4.43b |
| (D) 0.01 = Book Value of Equity 30.1m / Total Liabilities 3.12b |
| Total Rating: 0.49 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 61.85
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.37% |
| 3. FCF Margin 14.59% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.14 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 4.57 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -0.81)% |
| 7. RoE 5.67% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 95.11% |
| 9. EPS Trend 57.15% |
What is the price of KGS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.40%, over one month by +8.38%, over three months by +5.45% and over the past year by -7.73%.
Is KGS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KGS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 44.3 | 20.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 44.3 | 20.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 44.4 | 20.8% |
KGS Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 39.8691
P/E Forward = 13.4048
P/S = 2.2596
P/B = 2.2964
Beta = 1.216
Revenue TTM = 1.28b USD
EBIT TTM = 310.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 583.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.61b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.67b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.67b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.57b USD (2.90b + Debt 2.67b - CCE 724.0k)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.55 (Ebit TTM 310.3m / Interest Expense TTM 200.7m)
FCF Yield = 3.37% (FCF TTM 187.5m / Enterprise Value 5.57b)
FCF Margin = 14.59% (FCF TTM 187.5m / Revenue TTM 1.28b)
Net Margin = 5.84% (Net Income TTM 75.0m / Revenue TTM 1.28b)
Gross Margin = 46.66% ((Revenue TTM 1.28b - Cost of Revenue TTM 685.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 63.99% (prev 43.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.27 (Enterprise Value 5.57b / Total Assets 4.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.11% (Interest Expense 56.4m / Debt 2.67b)
Taxrate = 30.74% (-6.30m / -20.5m)
NOPAT = 214.9m (EBIT 310.3m * (1 - 30.74%))
Current Ratio = 0.98 (Total Current Assets 341.5m / Total Current Liabilities 349.0m)
Debt / Equity = 2.14 (Debt 2.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.57 (Net Debt 2.67b / EBITDA 583.5m)
Debt / FCF = 14.23 (Net Debt 2.67b / FCF TTM 187.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.32b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.72% (Net Income 75.0m / Total Assets 4.37b)
RoE = 5.67% (Net Income TTM 75.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.32b)
RoCE = 7.89% (EBIT 310.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.32b + L.T.Debt 2.61b))
RoIC = 5.51% (NOPAT 214.9m / Invested Capital 3.90b)
WACC = 6.32% (E(2.90b)/V(5.57b) * Re(10.78%) + D(2.67b)/V(5.57b) * Rd(2.11%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 10.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 5.87%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.21% ; FCFE base≈187.5m ; Y1≈123.1m ; Y5≈56.3m
Fair Price DCF = 8.80 (DCF Value 754.4m / Shares Outstanding 85.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 57.15 | EPS CAGR: 220.7% | SUE: -1.35 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.11 | Revenue CAGR: 20.44% | SUE: -0.39 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=-0.017 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.39 | Chg30d=+0.036 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+23.1% | Growth Revenue=+7.4%
Additional Sources for KGS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle