(KMX) CarMax - Ratings and Ratios
Used Vehicles, Financing, Warranties, Reconditioning
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 40.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 57.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.25% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.35 |
| Alpha | -71.00 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.25 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | |
| Beta | 1.203 |
| Beta Downside | 1.411 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 65.38% |
| Mean DD | 17.19% |
| Median DD | 14.82% |
Description: KMX CarMax November 04, 2025
CarMax, Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is the largest U.S. retailer of used vehicles, operating two primary segments: CarMax Sales Operations, which sells a broad inventory-including domestic, imported, luxury, hybrid, and electric models-while also offering auctions, extended protection plans, and reconditioning services; and CarMax Auto Finance, which originates retail loans across the credit spectrum in partnership with multiple financial institutions.
Key performance indicators from the most recent quarter (Q3 2024) show a 4.2% year-over-year increase in net vehicle sales volume to 1.06 million units and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.9%, reflecting both higher transaction volumes and improved cost efficiencies in reconditioning. The segment’s inventory turnover accelerated to 7.4×, indicating faster vehicle movement despite a modest rise in the Used Car Price Index (+2.1% YoY), a sector driver tied to lingering supply-chain constraints and elevated consumer demand for affordable mobility.
Macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve’s policy rate (currently 5.25%–5.50%) directly influence CarMax Auto Finance’s loan pricing and credit risk, while the broader shift toward electrified vehicles presents a growth opportunity as CarMax expands its EV inventory share, now representing roughly 5% of total stock. For a deeper dive into CarMax’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent data set you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (521.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.58b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.50pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 12.48% (prev 10.44%; Δ 2.04pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.21b > Net Income 521.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (17.23b) to EBITDA (1.81b) ratio: 9.51 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.46 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (151.1m) change vs 12m ago -3.45% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 11.21% (prev 10.11%; Δ 1.10pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 96.98% (prev 94.89%; Δ 2.09pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.41 (EBITDA TTM 1.81b / Interest Expense TTM 632.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.91
| (A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 5.54b - Total Current Liabilities 2.25b) / Total Assets 27.08b |
| (B) 0.16 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.27b / Total Assets 27.08b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 1.53b / Avg Total Assets 27.19b |
| (D) 0.21 = Book Value of Equity 4.33b / Total Liabilities 20.88b |
| Total Rating: 1.91 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 45.91
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.98% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.60% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.87 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 9.51 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.49)% |
| 7. RoE 8.36% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -51.66% |
| 9. EPS Trend -26.87% |
What is the price of KMX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.67%, over one month by +19.96%, over three months by -36.75% and over the past year by -55.48%.
Is KMX a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 3
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the KMX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 40 | 3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 40 | 3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 31 | -20.2% |
KMX Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 11.3079
P/E Forward = 10.917
P/S = 0.2046
P/B = 0.9156
P/EG = 0.5613
Beta = 1.287
Revenue TTM = 26.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.53b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.81b USD
Long Term Debt = 17.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 855.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.77b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 17.23b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 23.01b USD (5.79b + Debt 17.77b - CCE 540.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.41 (Ebit TTM 1.53b / Interest Expense TTM 632.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.98% (FCF TTM 685.0m / Enterprise Value 23.01b)
FCF Margin = 2.60% (FCF TTM 685.0m / Revenue TTM 26.37b)
Net Margin = 1.98% (Net Income TTM 521.1m / Revenue TTM 26.37b)
Gross Margin = 11.21% ((Revenue TTM 26.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.88% (prev 11.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 23.01b / Total Assets 27.08b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.95% (Interest Expense 169.0m / Debt 17.77b)
Taxrate = 24.96% (31.7m / 127.1m)
NOPAT = 1.14b (EBIT 1.53b * (1 - 24.96%))
Current Ratio = 2.46 (Total Current Assets 5.54b / Total Current Liabilities 2.25b)
Debt / Equity = 2.87 (Debt 17.77b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.51 (Net Debt 17.23b / EBITDA 1.81b)
Debt / FCF = 25.15 (Net Debt 17.23b / FCF TTM 685.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.24b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.92% (Net Income 521.1m / Total Assets 27.08b)
RoE = 8.36% (Net Income TTM 521.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 6.24b)
RoCE = 6.34% (EBIT 1.53b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.24b + L.T.Debt 17.82b))
RoIC = 4.59% (NOPAT 1.14b / Invested Capital 24.92b)
WACC = 3.11% (E(5.79b)/V(23.55b) * Re(10.45%) + D(17.77b)/V(23.55b) * Rd(0.95%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 10.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.45%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.44% ; FCFE base≈632.2m ; Y1≈415.1m ; Y5≈189.8m
Fair Price DCF = 17.99 (DCF Value 2.64b / Shares Outstanding 146.8m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -26.87 | EPS CAGR: -50.27% | SUE: -2.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -51.66 | Revenue CAGR: -6.63% | SUE: -2.76 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-02-28): EPS=2.62 | Chg30d=-0.576 | Revisions Net=-11 | Growth EPS=-18.3% | Growth Revenue=-3.9%
EPS next Year (2027-02-28): EPS=2.94 | Chg30d=-0.779 | Revisions Net=-12 | Growth EPS=+12.3% | Growth Revenue=+1.0%
Additional Sources for KMX Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle