KREF Stock Analysis: KKR Real Estate Finance | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 452m USD | 12M Return: -10.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 6.42M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -86.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: KREF) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that primarily originates and acquires transitional senior loans secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets in the United States. The company also engages in the origination and purchase of both leveraged and unleveraged commercial real estate loans. As a REIT, KREF is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in order to avoid federal corporate income taxation. The company was incorporated in 2014, is headquartered in New York, New York, and has been publicly traded since its May 2017 IPO.
Unlike equity REITs, which own and operate physical properties, mortgage REITs such as KREF focus on financing income-producing real estate through loans and similar debt instruments. Transitional senior loans are typically short-term, floating-rate facilities used to bridge a propertys transition to a stabilized operating state or to permanent financing. The company operates as a small-cap stock (approximately $465M market capitalization) within the Financials sector and is externally managed by an affiliate of KKR & Co.
- Office sector distress pressures CRE loan valuations
- Net interest margin compressed by elevated short-term rates
- Loan originations decline amid weaker CRE transaction volume
| Net Income: -98.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.73 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -142.7% < 20% (prev -6.21%; Δ -136.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 69.5m > Net Income -98.3m |
| Net Debt (5.19b) to EBITDA (211.1m): 24.61 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (64.7m) vs 12m ago -5.95% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 87.12% > 18% (prev 90.95%; Δ -3.84% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.54% > 50% (prev 8.43%; Δ -1.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.67 > 6 (EBIT TTM 208.0m / Interest Expense TTM 310.1m) |
| A: -0.09 (Total Current Assets 168.6m - Total Current Liabilities 799.0m) / Total Assets 6.95b |
| B: -0.08 (Retained Earnings -584.1m / Total Assets 6.95b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 208.0m / Avg Total Assets 6.75b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 1.10b / Total Liabilities 5.80b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.46 = B |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.36 with a total of 631,897 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.69%, over one month by +3.26%, over three months by +14.33% and over the past year by -10.86%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.00 (which is 4.9% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
KKR Real Estate Finance has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.20. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KREF.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 6.5 | -11.7% |
P/E Forward = 5.685
P/S = 27.1804
P/B = 0.4126
P/EG = 5.13
Revenue TTM = 441.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 208.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 211.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.53b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 799.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.33b USD (corrected: LT Debt 4.53b + ST Debt 799.0m) + Leases 274k
Net Debt = 5.19b USD (calculated: Debt 5.33b - CCE 135.4m)
Enterprise Value = 5.65b USD (452.0m + Debt 5.33b - CCE 135.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.67 (Ebit TTM 208.0m / Interest Expense TTM 310.1m)
EV/FCF = 90.68x (Enterprise Value 5.65b / FCF TTM 62.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.10% (FCF TTM 62.3m / Enterprise Value 5.65b)
FCF Margin = 14.10% (FCF TTM 62.3m / Revenue TTM 441.7m)
Net Margin = -22.26% (Net Income TTM -98.3m / Revenue TTM 441.7m)
Gross Margin = 87.12% ((Revenue TTM 441.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 56.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 84.68% (prev 86.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.81 (Enterprise Value 5.65b / Total Assets 6.95b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.82% (Interest Expense 310.1m / Debt 5.33b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 164.3m (EBIT 208.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.21 (Total Current Assets 168.6m / Total Current Liabilities 799.0m)
Debt / Equity = 4.86 (Debt 5.33b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.61 (Net Debt 5.19b / EBITDA 211.1m)
Debt / FCF = 83.42 (Net Debt 5.19b / FCF TTM 62.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.46% (Net Income -98.3m / Total Assets 6.95b)
RoE = -8.30% (Net Income TTM -98.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.18b)
RoCE = 3.64% (EBIT 208.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.18b + L.T.Debt 4.53b))
RoIC = 2.37% (NOPAT 164.3m / Invested Capital 6.93b)
WACC = 4.90% (E(452.0m)/V(5.78b) * Re(8.47%) + D(5.33b)/V(5.78b) * Rd(5.82%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -64.44 | Cagr: -3.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈80.0m ; Y1≈70.2m ; Y5≈56.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 910.4m - Net Debt 5.19b = -4.28b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -86.78 | Revenue CAGR: -13.31% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.31 | Chg30d=+4.73% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.13 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.38 | Chg30d=-128.57% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-198.5% | GrowthRev=-22.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=-19.77% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+192.5% | GrowthRev=-9.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=1, down=9)