KREF Stock Analysis: KKR Real Estate Finance | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 373m USD | 12M Return: -26.3% | US48251K1007 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 6.19M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -96.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: KREF) is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT) that focuses on originating and acquiring transitional senior loans secured by U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) assets. The company also engages in the origination and purchase of credit investments, including leveraged and unleveraged commercial real estate loans. As a REIT, KREF is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in order to avoid federal corporate income taxes. Incorporated in 2014 and headquartered in New York, KREF has been publicly traded since its May 2017 IPO and operates with a small-cap market valuation of approximately $355 million. The company sits within the Financials sector and the Mortgage REITs sub-industry, a segment of the REIT market that primarily provides financing for income-producing real estate rather than owning physical properties.
- Transitional CRE loan losses surge as office sector weakens
- Net interest margin pressured by rising repo funding costs
- Dividend coverage strained by elevated non-performing loans
| Net Income: -185.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.98 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -229.0% < 20% (prev 20.48%; Δ -249.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 63.0m > Net Income -185.0m |
| Net Debt (4.23b) to EBITDA (110.0m): 38.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (62.5m) vs 12m ago -7.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 85.57% > 18% (prev 90.26%; Δ -4.69% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.22% > 50% (prev 7.62%; Δ -1.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM 106.4m / Interest Expense TTM 295.3m) |
| A: -0.14 (Total Current Assets 83.1m - Total Current Liabilities 1.03b) / Total Assets 6.56b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -711.7m / Total Assets 6.56b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 106.4m / Avg Total Assets 6.66b) |
| D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 931.8m / Total Liabilities 5.57b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.02 = CCC |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.86 with a total of 920,504 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.94%, over one month by -16.74%, over three months by -20.41% and over the past year by -26.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.50 (which is 6.1% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
KKR Real Estate Finance has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold KREF.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.8 | 32.3% |
P/E Forward = 11.6686
P/S = 326.4483
P/B = 0.381
P/EG = 5.13
Revenue TTM = 414.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 106.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 110.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.27b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.03b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.32b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 183k
Net Debt = 4.23b USD (calculated: Debt 4.32b - CCE 83.1m)
Enterprise Value = 4.61b USD (373.1m + Debt 4.32b - CCE 83.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.36 (Ebit TTM 106.4m / Interest Expense TTM 295.3m)
EV/FCF = 134.2x (Enterprise Value 4.61b / FCF TTM 34.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.75% (FCF TTM 34.3m / Enterprise Value 4.61b)
FCF Margin = 8.28% (FCF TTM 34.3m / Revenue TTM 414.2m)
Net Margin = -44.66% (Net Income TTM -185.0m / Revenue TTM 414.2m)
Gross Margin = 85.57% ((Revenue TTM 414.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 59.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.68% (prev 84.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 4.61b / Total Assets 6.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.84% (Interest Expense 295.3m / Debt 4.32b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 84.1m (EBIT 106.4m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.08 (Total Current Assets 83.1m / Total Current Liabilities 1.03b)
Debt / Equity = 4.63 (Debt 4.32b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 931.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 38.46 (Net Debt 4.23b / EBITDA 110.0m)
Debt / FCF = 123.3 (Net Debt 4.23b / FCF TTM 34.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.78% (Net Income -185.0m / Total Assets 6.56b)
RoE = -16.70% (Net Income TTM -185.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.11b)
RoCE = 1.98% (EBIT 106.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.11b + L.T.Debt 4.27b))
RoIC = 1.29% (NOPAT 84.1m / Invested Capital 6.54b)
WACC = 5.64% (E(373.1m)/V(4.69b) * Re(8.38%) + D(4.32b)/V(4.69b) * Rd(6.84%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.19 | Cagr: -4.56%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈61.3m ; Y1≈53.8m ; Y5≈43.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 697.6m - Net Debt 4.23b = -3.53b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -96.08 | Revenue CAGR: -16.83% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=-41.86% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.70 | Chg30d=-32.58% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-279.5% | GrowthRev=-35.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.04 | Chg30d=-87.93% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+105.0% | GrowthRev=-22.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=0, down=1)