LLY Stock Analysis: Eli Lilly | NYSE
Drug Manufacturers - General | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.042.597m USD | 12M Return: 55.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.35B
EPS Trend: 96.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is a global pharmaceutical company headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products across the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and other international markets. Founded in 1876, the company operates one of the most diversified product portfolios in the pharmaceutical industry, spanning cardiometabolic health, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience therapeutic areas.
The companys cardiometabolic franchise includes insulin products (Humalog, Humulin, Basaglar), type 2 diabetes therapies (Jardiance, Mounjaro, Trulicity), and the obesity treatment Zepbound. Its oncology offerings include Verzenio for breast cancer, Cyramza for gastric cancer, and Erbitux for colorectal and head and neck cancers. Immunology products cover Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz, while its neuroscience portfolio includes Emgality for migraine and Kisunla for Alzheimers disease. Notably, Mounjaro and Zepbound are part of the GLP-1 receptor agonist class, a category that has reshaped treatment standards for type 2 diabetes and obesity and become a major focus of industry growth and competition.
Eli Lilly pursues its pipeline through a combination of internal R&D and external partnerships, including collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim on the Jardiance family, Roche/Genentech on lebrikizumab, license agreements with Almirall and Chugai Pharmaceutical, and a strategic collaboration with Ascidian Therapeutics on monogenic kidney diseases. As a Mega Cap pharmaceutical company, Lillys business model relies on patent-protected branded biologics and small molecules, high R&D investment, and global commercialization to sustain revenue across multiple therapeutic categories.
- Zepbound obesity drug sales outpace expectations
- Mounjaro supply expansion lifts GLP-1 revenue
- Orforglipron oral GLP-1 phase 3 data due
| Net Income: 25.3b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 13.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 25.19% < 20% (prev 22.84%; Δ 2.35% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 20.5b > Net Income 25.3b |
| Net Debt (38.6b) to EBITDA (33.5b): 1.15 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (895.9m) vs 12m ago -0.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 83.51% > 18% (prev 81.70%; Δ 1.81% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.16% > 50% (prev 54.82%; Δ 15.34% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 36.05 > 6 (EBIT TTM 31.9b / Interest Expense TTM 883.6m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 54.8b - Total Current Liabilities 36.6b) / Total Assets 117b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 29.5b / Total Assets 117b) |
| C: 0.31 (EBIT TTM 31.9b / Avg Total Assets 103b) |
| D: 0.37 (Book Value of Equity 31.2b / Total Liabilities 85.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.31 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 21.2b/14.0b, Revenue 72.2b/49.0b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 81.70% / 83.51%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.33) |
| SGI: 1.47 (Revenue 72.2b / 49.0b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 25.3b - CFO 20.5b) / TA 117b) |
| Beneish M = -2.73 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1163.01 with a total of 1,551,867 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.98%, over one month by +6.65%, over three months by +30.39% and over the past year by +55.31%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 1116.70 (which is 4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Eli Lilly has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.26. Therefore, it is recommended to buy LLY.
- StrongBuy: 18
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 1270.4 | 9.2% |
P/E Trailing = 41.1535
P/E Forward = 33.0033
P/S = 14.4306
P/B = 33.0603
P/EG = 1.5497
Revenue TTM = 72.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 31.9b USD
EBITDA TTM = 33.5b USD
Long Term Debt = 39.4b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.00b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 43.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 486.7m
Net Debt = 38.6b USD (calculated: Debt 43.9b - CCE 5.28b)
Enterprise Value = 1081b USD (1043b + Debt 43.9b - CCE 5.28b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 36.05 (Ebit TTM 31.9b / Interest Expense TTM 883.6m)
EV/FCF = 79.62x (Enterprise Value 1081b / FCF TTM 13.6b)
FCF Yield = 1.26% (FCF TTM 13.6b / Enterprise Value 1081b)
FCF Margin = 18.80% (FCF TTM 13.6b / Revenue TTM 72.2b)
Net Margin = 34.98% (Net Income TTM 25.3b / Revenue TTM 72.2b)
Gross Margin = 83.51% ((Revenue TTM 72.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.93% (prev 85.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 9.27 (Enterprise Value 1081b / Total Assets 117b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.01% (Interest Expense 883.6m / Debt 43.9b)
Taxrate = 18.79% (5.85b / 31.1b)
NOPAT = 25.9b (EBIT 31.9b * (1 - 18.79%))
Current Ratio = 1.50 (Total Current Assets 54.8b / Total Current Liabilities 36.6b)
Debt / Equity = 1.41 (Debt 43.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 31.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.15 (Net Debt 38.6b / EBITDA 33.5b)
Debt / FCF = 2.84 (Net Debt 38.6b / FCF TTM 13.6b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 24.54% (Net Income 25.3b / Total Assets 117b)
RoE = 101.3% (Net Income TTM 25.3b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.9b)
RoCE = 49.53% (EBIT 31.9b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.9b + L.T.Debt 39.4b))
RoIC = 32.20% (NOPAT 25.9b / Invested Capital 80.3b)
WACC = 7.92% (E(1043b)/V(1086b) * Re(8.18%) + D(43.9b)/V(1086b) * Rd(2.01%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.99 | Cagr: -0.40%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈13.6b ; Y1≈13.6b ; Y5≈14.4b
[DCF] Fair Price = 208.7 (EV 225b - Net Debt 38.6b = Equity 186b / Shares 891.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.54 | EPS CAGR: 78.63% | SUE: 3.25 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.52 | Revenue CAGR: 37.69% | SUE: 2.35 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=7.22 | Chg30d=-18.03% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=21
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=9.45 | Chg30d=+0.50% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=35.09 | Chg30d=-3.10% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+44.9% | GrowthRev=+31.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=44.91 | Chg30d=+0.94% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+28.0% | GrowthRev=+15.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=7, down=3)