(LLY) Eli Lilly - Ratings and Ratios
Insulin, Diabetes, Oncology, Immunology, Neuroscience
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 48.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.74% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.92 |
| Alpha | 22.51 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.548 |
| Beta | 0.654 |
| Beta Downside | 0.723 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.48% |
| Mean DD | 8.49% |
| Median DD | 5.75% |
Description: LLY Eli Lilly September 24, 2025
Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) is a global pharmaceutical firm headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, that discovers, develops, and markets prescription medicines across the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and other international markets.
The company’s product slate is anchored by a broad diabetes franchise-including Basaglar, Humalog (U-100, U-200, Mix 75/25, Mix 50/50), Humulin (R, N, 70/30, U-500) and the newer agents Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity-as well as the obesity treatment Zepbound. In oncology, Lilly sells Alimta, Cyramza, Erbitux, Jaypirca, Retevmo, Tyvyt, and Verzenio. Additional therapeutic areas cover inflammatory diseases (Olumiant, Taltz, Omvoh), central-nervous-system disorders (Cymbalta, Ebglyss), and migraine (Emgality).
Lilly maintains a robust collaboration network, partnering with Incyte, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche/Genentech, AbCellera, Verge Genomics, AdvanCell, Chugai, and others to co-develop novel modalities such as targeted-alpha cancer therapies and myeloid-engager platforms for autoimmune disease.
Key financial and sector drivers (FY 2024): revenue of $28.5 bn (+12 % YoY), R&D spend of $6.2 bn (≈22 % of sales), and a 10-year average dividend yield of 2.1 %. The diabetes and obesity markets are expanding at 6-8 % CAGR globally, while oncology pipelines are seeing accelerated FDA approvals, both of which underpin Lilly’s growth outlook.
For a deeper quantitative view of LLY’s valuation dynamics, the ValueRay platform offers a granular, data-driven dashboard worth exploring.
LLY Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 917,645m |
| Sub-Industry | Pharmaceuticals |
| IPO / Inception | 1978-01-13 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 25.6% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.24 of 5 |
LLY Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.59% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.41% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 15.13% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.3% |
LLY Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 43.46% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.26 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 5.12 |
| Current Volume | 3430.5k |
| Average Volume | 4166.4k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income (18.41b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.57b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 10.73pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 36.91% (prev 16.50%; Δ 20.41pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 16.06b <= Net Income 18.41b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (32.71b) to EBITDA (25.30b) ratio: 1.29 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.55 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (898.8m) change vs 12m ago -0.69% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 83.03% (prev 80.91%; Δ 2.12pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 62.37% (prev 54.05%; Δ 8.32pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 26.09 (EBITDA TTM 25.30b / Interest Expense TTM 897.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.76
| (A) 0.19 = (Total Current Assets 62.07b - Total Current Liabilities 40.14b) / Total Assets 114.94b |
| (B) 0.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 22.25b / Total Assets 114.94b |
| (C) 0.25 = EBIT TTM 23.40b / Avg Total Assets 95.27b |
| (D) 0.22 = Book Value of Equity 19.64b / Total Liabilities 91.08b |
| Total Rating: 3.76 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 84.07
| 1. Piotroski 7.50pt = 2.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.95% = 0.47 |
| 3. FCF Margin 15.18% = 3.80 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.79 = 1.08 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.29 = 1.32 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 23.81)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 102.3% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.84% = 7.26 |
| 9. EPS Trend 52.67% = 2.63 |
What is the price of LLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.34%, over one month by +27.52%, over three months by +47.78% and over the past year by +42.70%.
Is LLY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 16
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the LLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 1003.2 | -2.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 1003.2 | -2.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1358 | 31.8% |
LLY Fundamental Data Overview November 15, 2025
P/E Trailing = 49.9893
P/E Forward = 32.2581
P/S = 15.4434
P/B = 38.4767
P/EG = 0.9617
Beta = 0.389
Revenue TTM = 59.42b USD
EBIT TTM = 23.40b USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.30b USD
Long Term Debt = 40.87b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.63b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 42.51b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 32.71b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 950.24b USD (917.64b + Debt 42.51b - CCE 9.91b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.09 (Ebit TTM 23.40b / Interest Expense TTM 897.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.95% (FCF TTM 9.02b / Enterprise Value 950.24b)
FCF Margin = 15.18% (FCF TTM 9.02b / Revenue TTM 59.42b)
Net Margin = 30.99% (Net Income TTM 18.41b / Revenue TTM 59.42b)
Gross Margin = 83.03% ((Revenue TTM 59.42b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.08b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.91% (prev 84.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.27 (Enterprise Value 950.24b / Total Assets 114.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 179.6m / Debt 42.51b)
Taxrate = 22.81% (1.65b / 7.23b)
NOPAT = 18.06b (EBIT 23.40b * (1 - 22.81%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 62.07b / Total Current Liabilities 40.14b)
Debt / Equity = 1.79 (Debt 42.51b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.79b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.29 (Net Debt 32.71b / EBITDA 25.30b)
Debt / FCF = 3.63 (Net Debt 32.71b / FCF TTM 9.02b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.02% (Net Income 18.41b / Total Assets 114.94b)
RoE = 102.3% (Net Income TTM 18.41b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.01b)
RoCE = 39.74% (EBIT 23.40b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.01b + L.T.Debt 40.87b))
RoIC = 31.88% (NOPAT 18.06b / Invested Capital 56.65b)
WACC = 8.07% (E(917.64b)/V(960.15b) * Re(8.43%) + D(42.51b)/V(960.15b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.73% ; FCFE base≈9.02b ; Y1≈5.92b ; Y5≈2.71b
Fair Price DCF = 55.72 (DCF Value 49.87b / Shares Outstanding 895.0m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 52.67 | EPS CAGR: 55.36% | SUE: 1.26 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.84 | Revenue CAGR: 37.70% | SUE: 2.36 | # QB: 2
Additional Sources for LLY Stock
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