(LLY) Eli Lilly - Overview
Stock: Insulin, Diabetes, Oncology, Immunology, Neuroscience
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 |
| Alpha | 6.71 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.668 |
| Beta Downside | 0.763 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.48% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.39 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: LLY Eli Lilly January 26, 2026
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is a global, research-driven pharmaceutical company headquartered in Indianapolis. It discovers, develops, and markets prescription medicines across the United States, Europe, China, Japan and other regions, focusing on diabetes, obesity, oncology, immunology and neuroscience.
The core product suite includes a broad insulin portfolio (Basaglar, Humalog, Humulin and related mixes), three blockbuster type-2-diabetes agents (Jardiance, Mounjaro, Trulicity), and the newly launched obesity therapy Zepbound. In oncology, Lilly sells Alimta, Cyramza, Erbitux, Jaypirca, Retevmo, Tyvyt and Verzenio; in immunology it markets Olumiant, Taltz, Omvoh and Ebglyss; and in neuroscience it offers Cymbalta and Emgality for migraine prevention.
Strategic collaborations span biotech and tech partners, including Incyte, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche/Genentech, AbCellera, Verge Genomics, AdvanCell (targeted-alpha cancer therapies), Chugai (myeloid engager platform), NVIDIA (AI-driven drug discovery), Insilico Medicine and Nimbus Therapeutics (obesity/metabolic pipelines). These alliances aim to accelerate R&D and diversify the pipeline beyond the current product mix.
Recent financial metrics (FY 2023) show total revenue of **$28.5 billion**, a **9 % year-over-year increase**, driven largely by double-digit growth in diabetes and obesity sales. Mounjaro and Zepbound together contributed **≈$4.2 billion** in 2023, and analysts project Zepbound could reach **$2 billion in annual sales by 2025** if market uptake follows early adoption trends. The company’s R&D spend remained steady at **$5.4 billion** (≈19 % of revenue), reflecting its commitment to pipeline expansion amid a competitive biotech environment.
Key sector drivers that could impact Lilly’s outlook include the **global diabetes market’s CAGR of ~6 %** through 2028, rising obesity prevalence (estimated 13 % of U.S. adults), and the **accelerating adoption of AI in drug discovery**, which may shorten development timelines but also raise execution risk.
Consider exploring ValueRay for deeper analytics on Lilly’s valuation sensitivities and peer-relative performance.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 20.64b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 31.30% < 20% (prev 9.69%; Δ 21.61% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 16.81b > Net Income 20.64b |
| Net Debt (35.34b) to EBITDA (27.94b): 1.27 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (898.0m) vs 12m ago -0.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 83.79% > 18% (prev 0.81%; Δ 8298 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 68.18% > 50% (prev 57.22%; Δ 10.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 33.16 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 27.94b / Interest Expense TTM 795.3m) |
Altman Z'' 4.02
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 55.63b - Total Current Liabilities 35.23b) / Total Assets 112.48b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 24.47b / Total Assets 112.48b) |
| C: 0.28 (EBIT TTM 26.37b / Avg Total Assets 95.60b) |
| D: 0.26 (Book Value of Equity 22.18b / Total Liabilities 85.94b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.02 = AA |
Beneish M -2.79
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 20.16b/13.28b, Revenue 65.18b/45.04b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 83.79% / 81.31%) |
| AQI: 0.78 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.45 (Revenue 65.18b / 45.04b) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 20.64b - CFO 16.81b) / TA 112.48b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.79 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of LLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.93%, over one month by -2.89%, over three months by -3.08% and over the past year by +16.48%.
Is LLY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 16
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the LLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 1211.2 | 20% |
| Analysts Target Price | 1211.2 | 20% |
LLY Fundamental Data Overview February 21, 2026
P/E Forward = 30.8642
P/S = 14.8094
P/B = 35.0789
P/EG = 0.8894
Revenue TTM = 65.18b USD
EBIT TTM = 26.37b USD
EBITDA TTM = 27.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 40.87b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.64b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 42.50b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 35.34b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1000.50b USD (965.26b + Debt 42.50b - CCE 7.27b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 33.16 (Ebit TTM 26.37b / Interest Expense TTM 795.3m)
EV/FCF = 111.5x (Enterprise Value 1000.50b / FCF TTM 8.97b)
FCF Yield = 0.90% (FCF TTM 8.97b / Enterprise Value 1000.50b)
FCF Margin = 13.77% (FCF TTM 8.97b / Revenue TTM 65.18b)
Net Margin = 31.66% (Net Income TTM 20.64b / Revenue TTM 65.18b)
Gross Margin = 83.79% ((Revenue TTM 65.18b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.56b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.05% (prev 82.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.90 (Enterprise Value 1000.50b / Total Assets 112.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.29% (Interest Expense 123.0m / Debt 42.50b)
Taxrate = 19.71% (1.63b / 8.27b)
NOPAT = 21.17b (EBIT 26.37b * (1 - 19.71%))
Current Ratio = 1.58 (Total Current Assets 55.63b / Total Current Liabilities 35.23b)
Debt / Equity = 1.60 (Debt 42.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 26.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.27 (Net Debt 35.34b / EBITDA 27.94b)
Debt / FCF = 3.94 (Net Debt 35.34b / FCF TTM 8.97b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 21.09b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 21.59% (Net Income 20.64b / Total Assets 112.48b)
RoE = 97.85% (Net Income TTM 20.64b / Total Stockholder Equity 21.09b)
RoCE = 42.56% (EBIT 26.37b / Capital Employed (Equity 21.09b + L.T.Debt 40.87b))
RoIC = 34.18% (NOPAT 21.17b / Invested Capital 61.95b)
WACC = 8.04% (E(965.26b)/V(1007.77b) * Re(8.38%) + D(42.50b)/V(1007.77b) * Rd(0.29%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 8.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.33%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.06% ; FCFF base≈5.59b ; Y1≈3.67b ; Y5≈1.67b
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 32.52b - Net Debt 35.34b = -2.82b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 48.57 | EPS CAGR: 30.61% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.54 | Revenue CAGR: 27.27% | SUE: 1.69 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=7.22 | Chg30d=-0.432 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=34.37 | Chg30d=+1.488 | Revisions Net=+15 | Growth EPS=+42.0% | Growth Revenue=+23.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=41.78 | Chg30d=+1.129 | Revisions Net=+7 | Growth EPS=+21.6% | Growth Revenue=+16.9%