(LLY) Eli Lilly - Ratings and Ratios
Insulin, Diabetes, Oncology, Immunology, Neuroscience
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.84% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 15.26% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 28.3% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 52.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.89% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.03 |
| Alpha | 36.02 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.504 |
| Beta | 0.648 |
| Beta Downside | 0.707 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.48% |
| Mean DD | 8.14% |
| Median DD | 5.13% |
Description: LLY Eli Lilly December 01, 2025
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is a global pharmaceutical firm that discovers, develops, and markets prescription medicines across the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and other regions. Its product portfolio spans insulin therapies (e.g., Humalog, Humulin), type-2 diabetes agents (Jardiance, Mounjaro, Trulicity) and the obesity drug Zepbound, as well as oncology treatments (Alimta, Cyramza, Erbitux, Retevmo, Verzenio), immunology and inflammatory agents (Olumiant, Taltz, Omvoh), and CNS/pain medicines (Cymbalta, Emgality). The company also maintains a broad network of collaborations with firms such as Incyte, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche/Genentech, AbCellera, NVIDIA, and Insilico Medicine to accelerate pipeline development.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately **$28.5 billion**, with diluted EPS of **$8.80**, driven largely by double-digit growth in the diabetes/obesity franchise (Mounjaro and Zepbound together contributed >$5 billion). The diabetes market’s CAGR of ~7 % and rising global obesity prevalence (projected to affect >30 % of adults by 2030) are core economic tailwinds for Lilly’s pipeline. Additionally, the company’s R&D spend of **~$6 billion** (≈21 % of revenue) places it in the top quartile of pharma spend, supporting a robust pipeline of late-stage candidates.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, consider reviewing ValueRay’s analyst tools to explore LLY’s valuation sensitivities and peer-group benchmarks.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 18.41b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.73 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.91% < 20% (prev 16.50%; Δ 20.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 16.06b > Net Income 18.41b |
| Net Debt (32.71b) to EBITDA (25.30b): 1.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (898.8m) vs 12m ago -0.69% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 83.03% > 18% (prev 0.81%; Δ 8222 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 62.37% > 50% (prev 54.05%; Δ 8.32% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 26.09 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 25.30b / Interest Expense TTM 897.0m) |
Altman Z'' 3.76
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 62.07b - Total Current Liabilities 40.14b) / Total Assets 114.94b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 22.25b / Total Assets 114.94b) |
| C: 0.25 (EBIT TTM 23.40b / Avg Total Assets 95.27b) |
| D: 0.22 (Book Value of Equity 19.64b / Total Liabilities 91.08b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.76 = AA |
Beneish M -2.78
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 19.46b/12.05b, Revenue 59.42b/40.86b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 83.03% / 80.91%) |
| AQI: 0.72 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.45 (Revenue 59.42b / 40.86b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 18.41b - CFO 16.06b) / TA 114.94b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.78 = A |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 82.07
| 1. Piotroski: 7.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 0.94% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 15.18% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 1.79 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: 1.29 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: 23.93% |
| 7. RoE: 102.3% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 91.63% |
| 9. EPS Trend: 20.54% |
What is the price of LLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.27%, over one month by +1.01%, over three months by +34.04% and over the past year by +45.29%.
Is LLY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 16
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the LLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 1116.3 | 2.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 1116.3 | 2.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1523.7 | 40.1% |
LLY Fundamental Data Overview January 17, 2026
P/E Forward = 32.7869
P/S = 15.5842
P/B = 40.3733
P/EG = 0.978
Revenue TTM = 59.42b USD
EBIT TTM = 23.40b USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.30b USD
Long Term Debt = 40.87b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.63b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 42.51b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 32.71b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 958.73b USD (926.01b + Debt 42.51b - CCE 9.79b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.09 (Ebit TTM 23.40b / Interest Expense TTM 897.0m)
EV/FCF = 106.3x (Enterprise Value 958.73b / FCF TTM 9.02b)
FCF Yield = 0.94% (FCF TTM 9.02b / Enterprise Value 958.73b)
FCF Margin = 15.18% (FCF TTM 9.02b / Revenue TTM 59.42b)
Net Margin = 30.99% (Net Income TTM 18.41b / Revenue TTM 59.42b)
Gross Margin = 83.03% ((Revenue TTM 59.42b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.08b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.91% (prev 84.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.34 (Enterprise Value 958.73b / Total Assets 114.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 179.6m / Debt 42.51b)
Taxrate = 22.81% (1.65b / 7.23b)
NOPAT = 18.06b (EBIT 23.40b * (1 - 22.81%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 62.07b / Total Current Liabilities 40.14b)
Debt / Equity = 1.79 (Debt 42.51b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.79b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.29 (Net Debt 32.71b / EBITDA 25.30b)
Debt / FCF = 3.63 (Net Debt 32.71b / FCF TTM 9.02b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.33% (Net Income 18.41b / Total Assets 114.94b)
RoE = 102.3% (Net Income TTM 18.41b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.01b)
RoCE = 39.74% (EBIT 23.40b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.01b + L.T.Debt 40.87b))
RoIC = 31.88% (NOPAT 18.06b / Invested Capital 56.65b)
WACC = 7.95% (E(926.01b)/V(968.52b) * Re(8.30%) + D(42.51b)/V(968.52b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.45% ; FCFF base≈9.02b ; Y1≈5.92b ; Y5≈2.70b
Fair Price DCF = 23.00 (EV 53.30b - Net Debt 32.71b = Equity 20.59b / Shares 895.0m; r=7.95% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 20.54 | EPS CAGR: -49.58% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.63 | Revenue CAGR: 23.40% | SUE: 2.36 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=7.49 | Chg30d=-0.094 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=10
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=32.76 | Chg30d=+0.153 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+38.5% | Growth Revenue=+20.7%
Additional Sources for LLY Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle