LLY Stock Analysis: Eli Lilly | NYSE
Drug Manufacturers - General | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.115.631m USD | 12M Return: 59.7% | US5324571083 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 2.59B
EPS Trend: 99.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Qual. Beats: 5
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Eli Lilly and Company is a global pharmaceutical company founded in 1876 and headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. It discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products across the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and other international markets. The company operates across four primary therapeutic areas: cardiometabolic health (with a particularly strong portfolio in diabetes and obesity treatments such as Mounjaro, Trulicity, Zepbound, and established insulin brands like Humalog and Humulin), oncology (including Verzenio, Erbitux, Cyramza, and Jaypirca), immunology (Olumiant, Taltz, Omvoh, Ebglyss), and neuroscience (Emgality for migraine and Kisunla for Alzheimers disease).
The company maintains an extensive external innovation network, holding collaborations and licensing agreements with Boehringer Ingelheim (Jardiance family), Roche/Genentech (lebrikizumab), Almirall (Ebglyss), Chugai Pharmaceutical (orforglipron), Ascidian Therapeutics, BioArctic, QurCan Therapeutics, and Abbisko Therapeutics. As a Mega Cap pharmaceutical company listed on the NYSE, Eli Lilly operates in the highly regulated biopharmaceutical sector, where revenue is largely driven by patent-protected blockbuster therapies and a deep pipeline of investigational drugs developed both internally and through partnerships.
- Mounjaro and Zepbound sales surge past consensus estimates
- Novo Nordisk oral GLP-1 competition threatens market share
- Manufacturing capacity expansion boosts incretin supply and margins
| Net Income: 26.7b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 21.25% < 20% (prev 20.34%; Δ 0.91% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 28.1b > Net Income 26.7b |
| Net Debt (46.4b) to EBITDA (43.3b): 1.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (893.7m) vs 12m ago -0.68% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 83.40% > 18% (prev 82.64%; Δ 0.76% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.51% > 50% (prev 52.77%; Δ 12.74% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 42.06 > 6 (EBIT TTM 41.2b / Interest Expense TTM 979.6m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 64.7b - Total Current Liabilities 47.7b) / Total Assets 142b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 31.9b / Total Assets 142b) |
| C: 0.34 (EBIT TTM 41.2b / Avg Total Assets 122b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 33.9b / Total Liabilities 108b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.12 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 23.5b/17.2b, Revenue 79.7b/53.3b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 82.64% / 83.40%) |
| AQI: 1.12 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.50 (Revenue 79.7b / 53.3b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 26.7b - CFO 28.1b) / TA 142b) |
| Beneish M = -2.68 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1283.66 with a total of 2,958,921 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.04%, over one month by +10.20%, over three months by +12.08% and over the past year by +59.68%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 1201.30 (which is 6.4% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Eli Lilly has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.37. Therefore, it is recommended to buy LLY.
- StrongBuy: 19
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 1328.1 | 3.5% |
P/E Trailing = 39.1618
P/E Forward = 24.3902
P/S = 14.0099
P/B = 30.2826
P/EG = 1.1368
Revenue TTM = 79.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 41.2b USD
EBITDA TTM = 43.3b USD
Long Term Debt = 47.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.05b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 55.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 486.7m
Net Debt = 46.4b USD (calculated: Debt 55.4b - CCE 8.95b)
Enterprise Value = 1162b USD (1116b + Debt 55.4b - CCE 8.95b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 42.06 (Ebit TTM 41.2b / Interest Expense TTM 979.6m)
EV/FCF = 57.95x (Enterprise Value 1162b / FCF TTM 20.1b)
FCF Yield = 1.73% (FCF TTM 20.1b / Enterprise Value 1162b)
FCF Margin = 25.17% (FCF TTM 20.1b / Revenue TTM 79.7b)
Net Margin = 33.53% (Net Income TTM 26.7b / Revenue TTM 79.7b)
Gross Margin = 83.40% ((Revenue TTM 79.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.78% (prev 81.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.17 (Enterprise Value 1162b / Total Assets 142b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.77% (Interest Expense 979.6m / Debt 55.4b)
Taxrate = 20.49% (6.88b / 33.6b)
NOPAT = 32.8b (EBIT 41.2b * (1 - 20.49%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 64.7b / Total Current Liabilities 47.7b)
Debt / Equity = 1.64 (Debt 55.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 33.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.07 (Net Debt 46.4b / EBITDA 43.3b)
Debt / FCF = 2.32 (Net Debt 46.4b / FCF TTM 20.1b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 28.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 21.97% (Net Income 26.7b / Total Assets 142b)
RoE = 92.58% (Net Income TTM 26.7b / Total Stockholder Equity 28.9b)
RoCE = 53.72% (EBIT 41.2b / Capital Employed (Equity 28.9b + L.T.Debt 47.9b))
RoIC = 33.56% (NOPAT 32.8b / Invested Capital 97.6b)
WACC = 6.25% (E(1116b)/V(1171b) * Re(6.49%) + D(55.4b)/V(1171b) * Rd(1.77%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.08 | Cagr: -0.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈20.1b ; Y1≈20.1b ; Y5≈21.3b
[DCF] Fair Price = 320.1 (EV 332b - Net Debt 46.4b = Equity 285b / Shares 891.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.59 | EPS CAGR: 91.62% | SUE: 3.39 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 99.51 | Revenue CAGR: 39.74% | SUE: 2.46 | # QB: 5
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=7.16 | Chg30d=-27.49% | Revisions=-31% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=35.22 | Chg30d=-4.12% | Revisions=-19% | GrowthEPS=+45.5% | GrowthRev=+35.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=47.48 | Chg30d=+0.34% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+34.8% | GrowthRev=+15.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -11% (up=14, down=18)