LMND Stock Analysis: Lemonade | NYSE

Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.961m USD | 12M Return: 68.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Renters Insurance, Homeowners Insurance, Pet Insurance, Car Insurance
Total Rating 46
Safety 44
Buy Signal -0.36
Insurance - Property & Casualty
Industry Rotation: +7.9
Market Cap: 5.96B
Avg Turnover: 94.2M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility74.2%
VaR 5th Pctl11.1%
VaR vs Median-7.78%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.97
Rel. Str. IBD79.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group88
Character TTM
Beta1.441
Beta Downside0.927
Hurst Exponent0.509
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD56.10%
CAGR/Max DD0.95
CAGR/Mean DD1.97
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of LMND over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.9, "2021-09": -1.08, "2021-12": -1.08, "2022-03": -1.21, "2022-06": -1.09, "2022-09": -1.25, "2022-12": -0.93, "2023-03": -0.96, "2023-06": -0.97, "2023-09": -0.79, "2023-12": -0.61, "2024-03": -0.67, "2024-06": -0.81, "2024-09": -0.9, "2024-12": -0.42, "2025-03": -0.86, "2025-06": -0.6, "2025-09": -0.51, "2025-12": -0.29, "2026-03": -0.47,
Last SUE: 1.45
Qual. Beats: 6
Revenue Revenue of LMND over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 28.2, 2021-09: 35.7, 2021-12: 41, 2022-03: 44.3, 2022-06: 50, 2022-09: 74, 2022-12: 88.4, 2023-03: 95.2, 2023-06: 104.6, 2023-09: 114.5, 2023-12: 115.5, 2024-03: 119.1, 2024-06: 122, 2024-09: 136.6, 2024-12: 148.8, 2025-03: 151.2, 2025-06: 164.1, 2025-09: 194.5, 2025-12: 228.1, 2026-03: 234.4,
Rev. CAGR: 31.21%
Rev. Trend: 98.9%
Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: -1

Warnings

Choppy

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 6 years of data

Jan +3.4% 10
Feb -1.5% 10
Mar +4.3% 10
Apr -8.0% 27
May +13.1% 11
Jun -2.3% 10
Jul +10.4% 10
Aug +2.3% 9
Sep -7.7% 31
Oct +6.7% 28
Nov +23.6% 11
Dec -13.4% 48

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: LMND Lemonade

Lemonade, Inc. is an insurance company offering a diverse range of products, including renters, homeowners, building, car, pet, life, and landlord insurance, as well as coverage for stolen or damaged property and personal liability. The company serves customers in the United States, parts of Europe, Louisiana, and the United Kingdom, and also operates as an agent for other insurance carriers, broadening its product reach beyond its own offerings.

The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York, and was formerly known as Lemonade Group, Inc. It is listed on the NYSE under the ticker LMND and is classified within the GICS Financials sector, specifically the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry, a category that typically encompasses auto, homeowners, and related personal lines coverage.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Gross loss ratio trends signal path to underwriting profitability
  • Customer count and premium per customer growth accelerates
  • Reinsurance costs rise as catastrophic weather losses mount
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.5
Net Income: -138.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.04 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 8.40% < 20% (prev 40.55%; Δ -32.14% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 30.1m > Net Income -138.9m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (76.3m) vs 12m ago 4.64% < -2%
Gross Margin: 47.58% > 18% (prev 37.06%; Δ 10.53% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 43.05% > 50% (prev 30.09%; Δ 12.96% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)
Altman Z'' -2.36
A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 1.31b - Total Current Liabilities 1.24b) / Total Assets 1.96b
B: -0.77 (Retained Earnings -1.50b / Total Assets 1.96b)
C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -134.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.91b)
D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 518.0m / Total Liabilities 1.44b)
Altman-Z'' = -2.36 = D
Beneish M -2.81
DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 594.6m/500.1m, Revenue 821.1m/558.6m)
GMI: 0.78 (GM 37.06% / 47.58%)
AQI: 1.41 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.23)
SGI: 1.47 (Revenue 821.1m / 558.6m)
TATA: -0.09 (NI -138.9m - CFO 30.1m) / TA 1.96b)
Beneish M = -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of LMND shares?

As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 70.33 with a total of 911,369 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.44%, over one month by +31.26%, over three months by +26.42% and over the past year by +68.25%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 65.10 (which is 7.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is LMND a buy, sell or hold?

Lemonade has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.44. Therefore, it is recommended to sell LMND.

  • StrongBuy: 0
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 2
  • StrongSell: 2

What are the forecasts/targets for the LMND price?
Analysts Target Price 62 -11.8%
Lemonade (LMND) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 10 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 5.96b (5.96b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/S = 7.0564
P/B = 7.6153
Revenue TTM = 821.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -134.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -120.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 179.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 179.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 221.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 20.8m
Net Debt = -356.6m USD (calculated: Debt 221.2m - CCE 577.8m)
Enterprise Value = 5.60b USD (5.96b + Debt 221.2m - CCE 577.8m)
 Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -134.1m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
 EV/FCF = 287.4x (Enterprise Value 5.60b / FCF TTM 19.5m)
FCF Yield = 0.35% (FCF TTM 19.5m / Enterprise Value 5.60b)
FCF Margin = 2.37% (FCF TTM 19.5m / Revenue TTM 821.1m)
Net Margin = -16.92% (Net Income TTM -138.9m / Revenue TTM 821.1m)
Gross Margin = 47.58% ((Revenue TTM 821.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 430.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.13% (prev 62.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.86 (Enterprise Value 5.60b / Total Assets 1.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 221.2m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -105.9m (EBIT -134.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.31b / Total Current Liabilities 1.24b)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 221.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 518.0m)
 Debt / EBITDA = 2.95 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -356.6m / EBITDA -120.7m)
 Debt / FCF = -18.29 (Net Debt -356.6m / FCF TTM 19.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 523.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.28% (Net Income -138.9m / Total Assets 1.96b)
RoE = -26.52% (Net Income TTM -138.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 523.7m)
RoCE = -19.07% (EBIT -134.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 523.7m + L.T.Debt 179.6m))
 RoIC = -12.36% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -105.9m / Invested Capital 856.9m)
 WACC = 10.65% (E(5.96b)/V(6.18b) * Re(11.05%) + D(221.2m)/V(6.18b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.22 | Cagr: 3.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 67.80% ; FCFF base≈19.5m ; Y1≈19.6m ; Y5≈20.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.66 (EV 231.8m - Net Debt -356.6m = Equity 588.4m / Shares 76.8m; r=10.65% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.45 | # QB: 6
Revenue Correlation: 98.90 | Revenue CAGR: 31.21% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.57 | Chg30d=-0.98% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=11
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.53 | Chg30d=-1.40% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.74 | Chg30d=-0.58% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+22.4% | GrowthRev=+63.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.82 | Chg30d=-0.93% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+53.1% | GrowthRev=+34.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -36% (up=2, down=6)