LMND Stock Analysis: Lemonade | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.549m USD | 12M Return: -7.1% | US52567D1072 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 55.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.3%
Qual. Beats: -2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Lemonade, Inc. (NYSE: LMND) is a Property & Casualty insurance carrier offering renters, homeowners, building, car, pet, life, and landlord insurance products to customers in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom. Its policies cover stolen or damaged property, personal liability, and veterinary costs for pets. The company also acts as an agent for other insurance carriers. Originally incorporated in 2015 as Lemonade Group, Inc., it is headquartered in New York, NY and went public on July 2, 2020.
The Property & Casualty insurance sector generates revenue primarily by collecting premiums from policyholders and investing those funds, while paying out claims when covered losses occur. Lemonade operates as a digital-first insurer, distributing policies through a mobile app and website rather than traditional broker or agent networks.
- Car insurance expansion accelerates premium revenue growth
- Loss ratio improvement critical to reaching underwriting profitability
- Catastrophe weather losses pressure combined ratio and margins
| Net Income: -138.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -44.61% < 20% (prev 36.81%; Δ -81.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 21.2m > Net Income -138.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.68 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (77.0m) vs 12m ago 4.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.85% > 18% (prev 39.87%; Δ 7.98% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.18% > 50% (prev 31.05%; Δ 16.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.21 (Total Current Assets 870.7m - Total Current Liabilities 1.29b) / Total Assets 2.01b |
| B: -0.77 (Retained Earnings -1.54b / Total Assets 2.01b) |
| C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -133.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.97b) |
| D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 499.5m / Total Liabilities 1.51b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.96 = D |
| DSRI: 0.60 (Receivables 490.4m/524.5m, Revenue 931.0m/600.7m) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 39.87% / 47.85%) |
| AQI: 2.49 (AQ_t 0.56 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.55 (Revenue 931.0m / 600.7m) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI -138.4m - CFO 21.2m) / TA 2.01b) |
| Beneish M = -2.24 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 44.20 with a total of 873,036 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.86%, over one month by -9.00%, over three months by -31.55% and over the past year by -7.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 41.60 (which is 5.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Lemonade has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.09. Therefore, it is recommended to hold LMND.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 58.4 | 32.2% |
P/S = 3.6404
P/B = 6.8735
Revenue TTM = 931.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -133.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -122.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 206.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 206.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 226.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 20.0m
Net Debt = -333.5m USD (calculated: Debt 226.4m - CCE 559.9m)
Enterprise Value = 3.22b USD (3.55b + Debt 226.4m - CCE 559.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -133.3m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 397.0x (Enterprise Value 3.22b / FCF TTM 8.10m)
FCF Yield = 0.25% (FCF TTM 8.10m / Enterprise Value 3.22b)
FCF Margin = 0.87% (FCF TTM 8.10m / Revenue TTM 931.0m)
Net Margin = -14.87% (Net Income TTM -138.4m / Revenue TTM 931.0m)
Gross Margin = 47.85% ((Revenue TTM 931.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 485.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.80% (prev 43.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.60 (Enterprise Value 3.22b / Total Assets 2.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 226.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -105.3m (EBIT -133.3m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.68 (Total Current Assets 870.7m / Total Current Liabilities 1.29b)
Debt / Equity = 0.45 (Debt 226.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 499.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.73 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -333.5m / EBITDA -122.2m)
Debt / FCF = -41.17 (Net Debt -333.5m / FCF TTM 8.10m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 516.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.01% (Net Income -138.4m / Total Assets 2.01b)
RoE = -26.78% (Net Income TTM -138.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 516.8m)
RoCE = -18.43% (EBIT -133.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 516.8m + L.T.Debt 206.4m))
RoIC = -11.89% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -105.3m / Invested Capital 885.8m)
WACC = 10.92% (E(3.55b)/V(3.78b) * Re(11.62%) + D(226.4m)/V(3.78b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 88.16 | Cagr: 4.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 66.97% ; FCFF base≈8.10m ; Y1≈8.13m ; Y5≈8.62m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.51 (EV 93.2m - Net Debt -333.5m = Equity 426.7m / Shares 77.4m; r=10.92% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.31 | Revenue CAGR: 33.72% | SUE: -1.94 | # QB: -2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.58 | Chg30d=+3.49% | Revisions=-46% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.85 | Chg30d=+0.61% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+17.2% | GrowthRev=+65.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-1.10 | Chg30d=+0.30% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+40.7% | GrowthRev=+34.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -35% (up=4, down=10)