(LYB) LyondellBasell Industries - Ratings and Ratios
Olefins, Polyolefins, Polypropylene, Polyethylene, Catalysts
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 12.65% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.48% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 5.84% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 2.0% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 39.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 64.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.21% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.98 |
| Alpha | -53.47 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.26 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.555 |
| Beta | 1.186 |
| Beta Downside | 1.408 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 55.35% |
| Mean DD | 17.74% |
| Median DD | 8.88% |
Description: LYB LyondellBasell Industries October 30, 2025
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB) is a vertically integrated chemical producer operating across six business segments-Olefins & Polyolefins (Americas, Europe/Asia/International), Intermediates & Derivatives, Advanced Polymer Solutions, Refining, and Technology. The company manufactures core petrochemical building blocks (e.g., ethylene, propylene, butadiene, aromatics) and downstream products such as polyethylene, polypropylene homopolymers & copolymers, propylene oxide, and specialty polymers (catalloy, poly-butene-1). It also refines heavy, high-sulfur crude into gasoline and distillates and licenses polyolefin process technologies and catalysts.
Key operational metrics from FY 2024 show LYB’s adjusted EBITDA of $5.2 bn and a segment-level EBITDA margin of ~13 % in Olefins & Polyolefins, reflecting strong demand for packaging-grade resins. Capacity utilization in its ethylene crackers averaged 92 % during Q3 2024, indicating limited upside from incremental feedstock cost recovery. The company’s earnings are highly sensitive to ethylene and propylene price spreads, which are driven by global natural-gas feedstock costs and macro-level demand for construction and automotive plastics.
Sector-wide, the commodity chemicals market is being reshaped by three forces: (1) volatile natural-gas prices that set feedstock costs, (2) a sustained shift toward higher-value, recycled-content polymers in Europe and North America, and (3) tightening emissions regulations that favor integrated players capable of deploying low-carbon technologies-areas where LYB has announced several decarbonization projects.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of LYB’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a granular, data-driven dashboard you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (-1.20b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.95b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.08pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 11.99% (prev 18.13%; Δ -6.13pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.67b > Net Income -1.20b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (11.43b) to EBITDA (467.0m) ratio: 24.48 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.57 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (326.0m) change vs 12m ago 0.0% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 9.23% (prev 12.81%; Δ -3.58pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 91.65% (prev 99.92%; Δ -8.27pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -1.80 (EBITDA TTM 467.0m / Interest Expense TTM 516.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.57
| (A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 10.76b - Total Current Liabilities 6.85b) / Total Assets 33.79b |
| (B) 0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 7.40b / Total Assets 33.79b |
| (C) -0.03 = EBIT TTM -927.0m / Avg Total Assets 35.52b |
| (D) 0.26 = Book Value of Equity 6.07b / Total Liabilities 23.06b |
| Total Rating: 1.57 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 25.31
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.92% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.27% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.25 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 24.48 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -9.67)% |
| 7. RoE -10.18% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -89.51% |
| 9. EPS Trend -79.64% |
What is the price of LYB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.58%, over one month by -1.05%, over three months by -13.25% and over the past year by -36.04%.
Is LYB a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the LYB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 51.1 | 18.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 51.1 | 18.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 45.5 | 5.6% |
LYB Fundamental Data Overview December 21, 2025
P/E Forward = 11.3379
P/S = 0.3671
P/B = 1.3077
P/EG = 0.8037
Beta = 0.744
Revenue TTM = 32.56b USD
EBIT TTM = -927.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 467.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 10.64b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.22b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.22b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 11.43b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 25.30b USD (13.87b + Debt 13.22b - CCE 1.78b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.80 (Ebit TTM -927.0m / Interest Expense TTM 516.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.92% (FCF TTM 738.0m / Enterprise Value 25.30b)
FCF Margin = 2.27% (FCF TTM 738.0m / Revenue TTM 32.56b)
Net Margin = -3.69% (Net Income TTM -1.20b / Revenue TTM 32.56b)
Gross Margin = 9.23% ((Revenue TTM 32.56b - Cost of Revenue TTM 29.55b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.73% (prev 10.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.75 (Enterprise Value 25.30b / Total Assets 33.79b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.98% (Interest Expense 130.0m / Debt 13.22b)
Taxrate = 2.24% (-19.0m / -848.0m)
NOPAT = -906.2m (EBIT -927.0m * (1 - 2.24%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.57 (Total Current Assets 10.76b / Total Current Liabilities 6.85b)
Debt / Equity = 1.25 (Debt 13.22b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.60b)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.48 (Net Debt 11.43b / EBITDA 467.0m)
Debt / FCF = 15.49 (Net Debt 11.43b / FCF TTM 738.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.79b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.55% (Net Income -1.20b / Total Assets 33.79b)
RoE = -10.18% (Net Income TTM -1.20b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.79b)
RoCE = -4.13% (EBIT -927.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 11.79b + L.T.Debt 10.64b))
RoIC = -3.89% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -906.2m / Invested Capital 23.31b)
WACC = 5.78% (E(13.87b)/V(27.09b) * Re(10.38%) + D(13.22b)/V(27.09b) * Rd(0.98%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 10.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.70% ; FCFE base≈1.08b ; Y1≈708.0m ; Y5≈323.8m
Fair Price DCF = 14.12 (DCF Value 4.54b / Shares Outstanding 321.9m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -79.64 | EPS CAGR: -28.90% | SUE: 0.75 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -89.51 | Revenue CAGR: -12.65% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.63 | Chg30d=-0.059 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.48 | Chg30d=-0.142 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+47.1% | Growth Revenue=-2.4%
Additional Sources for LYB Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle