(MAIN) Main Street Capital - Ratings and Ratios
Private Equity, Mezzanine Debt, Senior Debt, Subordinated Debt, Preferred Equity
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 8.04% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 23.25% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 16.19% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 25.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 16.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 27.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.77% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.76 |
| Alpha | 8.33 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.380 |
| Beta | 0.775 |
| Beta Downside | 0.925 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.97% |
| Mean DD | 3.83% |
| Median DD | 2.64% |
Description: MAIN Main Street Capital November 06, 2025
Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE: MAIN) is a publicly traded Business Development Company that invests in lower-middle-market companies through a mix of private-equity-style equity and a broad suite of private-debt instruments. The firm targets both control and non-control positions and offers “one-stop” financing solutions-including senior secured term loans, mezzanine debt, preferred equity, and common equity-to support recapitalizations, growth capital, buyouts, and refinancings across a diversified set of sectors such as logistics, health-care equipment, and specialty retail.
Key metrics from the most recent filing (FY 2023) show a net asset value (NAV) of roughly $5.2 billion, a portfolio of about 300 operating companies, and a dividend yield near 7.5 % (annualized). The company’s leverage ratio (total debt / NAV) sits at approximately 3.0×, reflecting the typical BDC capital structure, while its weighted-average loan maturity is 4.2 years, indicating a moderate interest-rate sensitivity.
Two macro-level drivers are especially relevant to MAIN’s outlook. First, the prevailing low-to-moderate interest-rate environment supports cheaper debt financing for middle-market borrowers, which can boost deal flow for BDCs that specialize in senior secured and mezzanine structures. Second, e-commerce-driven growth in air freight and logistics continues to expand the addressable market for many of MAIN’s portfolio companies, a sector that historically outperforms during periods of robust consumer spending.
For a deeper quantitative comparison of MAIN’s risk-adjusted returns versus peers, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent, data-driven dashboard you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (536.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 45.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 9.54pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -1.44% (prev 19.20%; Δ -20.64pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 396.0m <= Net Income 536.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.12b) to EBITDA (554.8m) ratio: 3.82 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.74 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (89.2m) change vs 12m ago 1.99% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 82.71% (prev 83.29%; Δ -0.57pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 14.51% (prev 13.37%; Δ 1.15pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.07 (EBITDA TTM 554.8m / Interest Expense TTM 130.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.36
| (A) -0.00 = (Total Current Assets 30.6m - Total Current Liabilities 41.4m) / Total Assets 5.28b |
| (B) 0.09 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 481.7m / Total Assets 5.28b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 660.6m / Avg Total Assets 5.19b |
| (D) 0.21 = Book Value of Equity 482.6m / Total Liabilities 2.35b |
| Total Rating: 1.36 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 75.36
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.10% |
| 3. FCF Margin 52.58% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.73 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.82 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.32)% |
| 7. RoE 18.73% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 71.05% |
| 9. EPS Trend 70.01% |
What is the price of MAIN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.29%, over one month by +5.63%, over three months by -5.64% and over the past year by +21.18%.
Is MAIN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MAIN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 61.9 | -0.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 61.9 | -0.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 83 | 33.2% |
MAIN Fundamental Data Overview December 11, 2025
P/E Trailing = 10.4205
P/E Forward = 16.0
P/S = 10.0459
P/B = 1.9108
P/EG = 2.09
Beta = 0.807
Revenue TTM = 753.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 660.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 554.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 151.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.15b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.12b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.76b USD (5.64b + Debt 2.15b - CCE 30.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.07 (Ebit TTM 660.6m / Interest Expense TTM 130.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.10% (FCF TTM 396.0m / Enterprise Value 7.76b)
FCF Margin = 52.58% (FCF TTM 396.0m / Revenue TTM 753.1m)
Net Margin = 71.24% (Net Income TTM 536.5m / Revenue TTM 753.1m)
Gross Margin = 82.71% ((Revenue TTM 753.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 130.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.32% (prev 81.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.47 (Enterprise Value 7.76b / Total Assets 5.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.51% (Interest Expense 32.5m / Debt 2.15b)
Taxrate = 7.29% (9.72m / 133.4m)
NOPAT = 612.5m (EBIT 660.6m * (1 - 7.29%))
Current Ratio = 0.74 (Total Current Assets 30.6m / Total Current Liabilities 41.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.73 (Debt 2.15b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.93b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.82 (Net Debt 2.12b / EBITDA 554.8m)
Debt / FCF = 5.35 (Net Debt 2.12b / FCF TTM 396.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.16% (Net Income 536.5m / Total Assets 5.28b)
RoE = 18.73% (Net Income TTM 536.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.86b)
RoCE = 12.60% (EBIT 660.6m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 5.28b - Current Liab 41.4m))
RoIC = 12.13% (NOPAT 612.5m / Invested Capital 5.05b)
WACC = 6.81% (E(5.64b)/V(7.79b) * Re(8.87%) + D(2.15b)/V(7.79b) * Rd(1.51%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 8.87% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.78%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.80% ; FCFE base≈396.0m ; Y1≈260.0m ; Y5≈118.9m
Fair Price DCF = 22.79 (DCF Value 2.04b / Shares Outstanding 89.6m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 70.01 | EPS CAGR: 7.87% | SUE: -1.53 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.05 | Revenue CAGR: 8.46% | SUE: 0.80 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.91 | Chg30d=-0.023 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-0.6% | Growth Revenue=+2.0%
Additional Sources for MAIN Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle