MAIN Stock Analysis: Main Street Capital | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.034m USD | 12M Return: 0.3% | US56035L1044 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.3M
EPS Trend: -78.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 81.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) is a publicly traded business development company (BDC) and small business investment company (SBIC) that provides debt and equity capital to lower middle market and middle market companies. As a BDC, it operates under a regulatory framework that requires it to distribute most of its taxable income to shareholders, a structure common to publicly traded alternative asset managers focused on private credit.
The firm offers flexible, customized financing solutions including private equity, senior secured term loans, mezzanine and subordinated debt, preferred and common equity, and unitranche structures, often serving as a one-stop financing source for its portfolio companies. It pursues both control and non-control equity investments, and frequently partners with entrepreneurs, business owners, and management teams on transactions such as management buyouts, recapitalizations, growth financings, refinancings, and corporate carveouts.
Sector exposure is broad, with preferences spanning air freight and logistics, auto components, building products, chemicals, commercial and industrial services, construction and engineering, consumer finance, energy equipment and services, healthcare equipment and providers, hospitality and leisure, IT services, manufacturing, software, specialty retail, telecommunications, and oil and gas. This diversified industry reach reflects MAINs strategy of targeting the highly fragmented U.S. lower middle market, where capital providers can often negotiate favorable terms.
- Middle market private credit demand drives portfolio growth
- Interest rate cuts compress net interest margins and distributable income
- Rising non-accruals signal lower middle market credit deterioration
- BDC leverage cap restricts balance sheet expansion and origination pace
| Net Income: 451.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.15 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -111.0% < 20% (prev 5.37%; Δ -116.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 356.3m > Net Income 451.3m |
| Net Debt (2.48b) to EBITDA (459.4m): 5.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.12 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (92.0m) vs 12m ago 3.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 85.26% > 18% (prev 82.61%; Δ 2.65% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.46% > 50% (prev 14.27%; Δ -1.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM 453.0m / Interest Expense TTM 135.0m) |
| A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 109.8m - Total Current Liabilities 886.9m) / Total Assets 5.94b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 531.7m / Total Assets 5.94b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 453.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.61b) |
| D: 1.14 (Book Value of Equity 3.17b / Total Liabilities 2.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.17 = BB |
As of October 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 53.51 with a total of 368,498 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.59%, over one month by -2.37%, over three months by +2.73% and over the past year by +0.33%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 52.10 (which is 2.6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Main Street Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.38. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MAIN.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 59.9 | 11.9% |
P/E Trailing = 10.8092
P/E Forward = 13.4228
P/S = 8.7533
P/B = 1.5417
P/EG = 1.7605
Revenue TTM = 699.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 453.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 459.4m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 1.20m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.53b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.48b USD (calculated: Debt 2.53b - CCE 58.3m)
Enterprise Value = 7.51b USD (5.03b + Debt 2.53b - CCE 58.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.36 (Ebit TTM 453.0m / Interest Expense TTM 135.0m)
EV/FCF = 21.07x (Enterprise Value 7.51b / FCF TTM 356.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.75% (FCF TTM 356.3m / Enterprise Value 7.51b)
FCF Margin = 50.92% (FCF TTM 356.3m / Revenue TTM 699.7m)
Net Margin = 64.50% (Net Income TTM 451.3m / Revenue TTM 699.7m)
Gross Margin = 85.26% ((Revenue TTM 699.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 103.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.51% (prev 79.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 7.51b / Total Assets 5.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.33% (Interest Expense 135.0m / Debt 2.53b)
Taxrate = 6.75% (32.7m / 484.0m)
NOPAT = 422.4m (EBIT 453.0m * (1 - 6.75%))
Current Ratio = 0.12 (Total Current Assets 109.8m / Total Current Liabilities 886.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.80 (Debt 2.53b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.39 (Net Debt 2.48b / EBITDA 459.4m)
Debt / FCF = 6.95 (Net Debt 2.48b / FCF TTM 356.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.04% (Net Income 451.3m / Total Assets 5.94b)
RoE = 14.81% (Net Income TTM 451.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.05b)
RoCE = 8.96% (EBIT 453.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 5.94b - Current Liab 886.9m))
RoIC = 7.29% (NOPAT 422.4m / Invested Capital 5.79b)
WACC = 6.86% (E(5.03b)/V(7.57b) * Re(7.81%) + D(2.53b)/V(7.57b) * Rd(5.33%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 7.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 97.38 | Cagr: 3.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.64% ; FCFF base≈364.9m ; Y1≈349.0m ; Y5≈335.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 29.92 (EV 5.27b - Net Debt 2.48b = Equity 2.80b / Shares 93.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -5.67% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -78.43 | EPS CAGR: -1.44% | SUE: 0.46 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 81.82 | Revenue CAGR: 8.01% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.92 | Chg30d=-2.24% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.78 | Chg30d=-0.79% | Revisions=-22% | GrowthEPS=-4.2% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.86 | Chg30d=-0.68% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1.9% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=6, down=11)