MAIN Stock Analysis: Main Street Capital | NYSE

Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.257m USD | 12M Return: -8.4% | US56035L1044 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Private Equity, Mezzanine Debt, Senior Loans, Preferred Equity
Total Rating 35
Safety 35
Buy Signal -1.06
Asset Management
Industry Rotation: -3.5
Market Cap: 5.26B
Avg Turnover: 23.9M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility19.0%
VaR 5th Pctl3.34%
VaR vs Median6.82%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Rel. Str. IBD44.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group50
Character TTM
Beta0.684
Beta Downside0.652
Hurst Exponent0.453
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD22.43%
CAGR/Max DD0.93
CAGR/Mean DD3.46
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MAIN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.71, "2021-12": 0.73, "2022-03": 0.73, "2022-06": 0.75, "2022-09": 0.83, "2022-12": 0.98, "2023-03": 1.02, "2023-06": 1.06, "2023-09": 0.99, "2023-12": 1.07, "2024-03": 1.05, "2024-06": 1.01, "2024-09": 1, "2024-12": 1.02, "2025-03": 1.01, "2025-06": 0.99, "2025-09": 0.97, "2025-12": 1.09, "2026-03": 0.93, "2026-06": 0.97,
EPS CAGR: -1.44%
EPS Trend: -78.4%
Last SUE: 0.46
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MAIN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 123.715, 2021-12: 135.479, 2022-03: 97.483, 2022-06: 55.543, 2022-09: 93.337, 2022-12: 150.103, 2023-03: 126.993, 2023-06: 157.018, 2023-09: 150.912, 2023-12: 177.534, 2024-03: 159.886, 2024-06: 158.612, 2024-09: 184.944, 2024-12: 221.234, 2025-03: 170.691, 2025-06: 177.442, 2025-09: 183.705, 2025-12: 202.92, 2026-03: 163.545, 2026-06: 149.572,
Rev. CAGR: 8.01%
Rev. Trend: 81.8%
Last SUE: 0.08
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Fakeout
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -0.2% 2
Feb -0.5% 10
Mar -2.1% 11
Apr +1.6% 42
May -3.4% 23
Jun -0.0% 5
Jul +1.4% 22
Aug -0.1% 5
Sep -2.2% 67
Oct -3.1% 39
Nov +3.3% 31
Dec -0.2% 11

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MAIN Main Street Capital

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) is a Business Development Company (BDC) and Small Business Investment Company (SBIC) that provides both debt and equity capital to lower middle market companies in the United States. The firm offers a one-stop financing solution, combining private equity, mezzanine debt, senior secured term loans, subordinated debt, and preferred and common equity to support recapitalizations, management buyouts, growth financings, acquisitions, and refinancings. Investments span both control and non-control equity positions, with a focus on partnering with entrepreneurs, business owners, and management teams. As a BDC, MAIN is regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a structure that requires it to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders and primarily lends to or invests in U.S. private or thinly traded public companies. The firm targets a broad range of industries, including manufacturing, healthcare, business services, energy, consumer products, and technology, reflecting the diversified nature of the U.S. lower middle market.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest income expands on floating-rate loan portfolio growth
  • Credit quality improves as non-accruals decline
  • Monthly dividend supported by stable distributable net investment income
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 451.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.25 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -111.0% < 20% (prev 5.37%; Δ -116.4% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 172.2m > Net Income 451.3m
Net Debt (2.48b) to EBITDA (459.5m): 5.39 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.12 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (92.0m) vs 12m ago 3.03% < -2%
Gross Margin: 85.26% > 18% (prev 82.61%; Δ 2.65% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 12.46% > 50% (prev 14.27%; Δ -1.80% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM 453.0m / Interest Expense TTM 135.0m)
Altman Z'' 1.17
A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 109.8m - Total Current Liabilities 886.9m) / Total Assets 5.94b
B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 531.7m / Total Assets 5.94b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 453.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.61b)
D: 1.14 (Book Value of Equity 3.17b / Total Liabilities 2.77b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.17 = BB
What is the price of MAIN shares?

As of September 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 56.19 with a total of 534,685 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.05%, over one month by -2.35%, over three months by +12.51% and over the past year by -8.35%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 54.80 (which is 2.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is MAIN a buy, sell or hold?

Main Street Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.29. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MAIN.

  • StrongBuy: 0
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MAIN price?
Analysts Target Price 59.5 5.9%
Main Street Capital (MAIN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 14 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 5.26b (5.26b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.2892
P/E Forward = 15.456
P/S = 9.1419
P/B = 1.6602
P/EG = 1.7605
Revenue TTM = 699.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 453.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 459.5m USD
 Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Short Term Debt = 1.20m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.53b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.48b USD (calculated: Debt 2.53b - CCE 58.3m)
Enterprise Value = 7.73b USD (5.26b + Debt 2.53b - CCE 58.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.36 (Ebit TTM 453.0m / Interest Expense TTM 135.0m)
EV/FCF = 44.91x (Enterprise Value 7.73b / FCF TTM 172.2m)
FCF Yield = 2.23% (FCF TTM 172.2m / Enterprise Value 7.73b)
FCF Margin = 24.61% (FCF TTM 172.2m / Revenue TTM 699.7m)
Net Margin = 64.50% (Net Income TTM 451.3m / Revenue TTM 699.7m)
Gross Margin = 85.26% ((Revenue TTM 699.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 103.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.51% (prev 79.18%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.30 (Enterprise Value 7.73b / Total Assets 5.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.33% (Interest Expense 135.0m / Debt 2.53b)
Taxrate = 6.75% (32.7m / 484.0m)
NOPAT = 422.4m (EBIT 453.0m * (1 - 6.75%))
Current Ratio = 0.12 (Total Current Assets 109.8m / Total Current Liabilities 886.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.80 (Debt 2.53b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.39 (Net Debt 2.48b / EBITDA 459.5m)
Debt / FCF = 14.38 (Net Debt 2.48b / FCF TTM 172.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.04% (Net Income 451.3m / Total Assets 5.94b)
RoE = 14.81% (Net Income TTM 451.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.05b)
RoCE = 8.96% (EBIT 453.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 5.94b - Current Liab 886.9m))
RoIC = 7.29% (NOPAT 422.4m / Invested Capital 5.79b)
WACC = 7.28% (E(5.26b)/V(7.79b) * Re(8.39%) + D(2.53b)/V(7.79b) * Rd(5.33%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 8.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 97.38 | Cagr: 3.49%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈254.4m ; Y1≈223.1m ; Y5≈180.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 4.47 (EV 2.89b - Net Debt 2.48b = Equity 417.7m / Shares 93.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -78.43 | EPS CAGR: -1.44% | SUE: 0.46 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 81.82 | Revenue CAGR: 8.01% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=-3.10% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.81 | Chg30d=-0.49% | Revisions=-22% | GrowthEPS=-3.5% | GrowthRev=+3.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.88 | Chg30d=-0.78% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1.8% | GrowthRev=+6.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=6, down=11)