MAX Stock Analysis: MediaAlpha | NYSE
Internet Content & Information | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 723m USD | 12M Return: 32.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 8.85M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE: MAX) is a US-based technology company that operates a customer acquisition platform connecting insurance carriers, agents, and distributors with end consumers. Its platform spans property and casualty, health, and life insurance verticals, functioning as a specialized insurance ad-tech marketplace. Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Los Angeles, the company went public on October 28, 2020. Classified under the Communication Services sector (Interactive Media & Services sub-industry), MediaAlpha sits at the intersection of digital advertising technology and insurance distribution, an area where carriers increasingly rely on performance-based online lead generation to replace traditional marketing channels.
- Auto insurance carrier spend drives Property and Casualty segment revenue
- Medicare open enrollment period boosts health insurance vertical demand
- Customer concentration with top partners poses revenue risk
| Net Income: 39.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -17.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.49% < 20% (prev 7.29%; Δ -2.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 40.3m > Net Income 39.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.46 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.8m) vs 12m ago 0.38% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.89% > 18% (prev 16.12%; Δ -1.23% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 381.5% > 50% (prev 417.7%; Δ -36.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.99 > 6 (EBIT TTM -42.8m / Interest Expense TTM 10.7m) |
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 165.2m - Total Current Liabilities 113.2m) / Total Assets 367.7m |
| B: -1.28 (Retained Earnings -468.8m / Total Assets 367.7m) |
| C: -0.14 (EBIT TTM -42.8m / Avg Total Assets 303.8m) |
| D: 0.00 (Book Value of Equity 1.92m / Total Liabilities 396.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -4.17 = D |
| DSRI: 1.88 (Receivables 250.4m/114.8m, Revenue 1.16b/1.00b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 16.12% / 14.89%) |
| AQI: 2.36 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.16b / 1.00b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 39.0m - CFO 40.3m) / TA 367.7m) |
| Beneish M = -1.30 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.87 with a total of 1,452,438 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.93%, over one month by +40.96%, over three months by +49.46% and over the past year by +32.85%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.10 (which is 12.8% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
MediaAlpha has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MAX.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.8 | -0.3% |
P/E Trailing = 20.8906
P/E Forward = 10.5263
P/S = 0.6235
P/B = 377.0532
Revenue TTM = 1.16b USD
EBIT TTM = -42.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -40.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 156.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.17m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 163.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 137.5m USD (calculated: Debt 163.5m - CCE 26.1m)
Enterprise Value = 860.3m USD (722.8m + Debt 163.5m - CCE 26.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.99 (Ebit TTM -42.8m / Interest Expense TTM 10.7m)
EV/FCF = 21.50x (Enterprise Value 860.3m / FCF TTM 40.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.65% (FCF TTM 40.0m / Enterprise Value 860.3m)
FCF Margin = 3.45% (FCF TTM 40.0m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Net Margin = 3.37% (Net Income TTM 39.0m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Gross Margin = 14.89% ((Revenue TTM 1.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 986.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.06% (prev 15.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.34 (Enterprise Value 860.3m / Total Assets 367.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.56% (Interest Expense 10.7m / Debt 163.5m)
Taxrate = 31.64% (6.50m / 20.5m)
NOPAT = -29.3m (EBIT -42.8m * (1 - 31.64%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.46 (Total Current Assets 165.2m / Total Current Liabilities 113.2m)
Debt / Equity = 85.29 (Debt 163.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.92m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.39 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 137.5m / EBITDA -40.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.43 (Net Debt 137.5m / FCF TTM 40.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -6.86m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.85% (Net Income 39.0m / Total Assets 367.7m)
RoE = -568.8% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 39.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -6.86m)
RoCE = -28.66% (EBIT -42.8m / Capital Employed (Equity -6.86m + L.T.Debt 156.3m))
RoIC = -12.42% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -29.3m / Invested Capital 235.7m)
WACC = 6.80% (E(722.8m)/V(886.3m) * Re(7.32%) + D(163.5m)/V(886.3m) * Rd(6.56%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 7.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 78.86 | Cagr: 7.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈50.9m ; Y1≈44.6m ; Y5≈36.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.16 (EV 578.8m - Net Debt 137.5m = Equity 441.4m / Shares 54.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.04 | Revenue CAGR: 64.22% | SUE: 0.87 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=-5.63% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-6.40% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.29 | Chg30d=-6.43% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-63.5% | GrowthRev=+13.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.55 | Chg30d=-7.10% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+20.2% | GrowthRev=+9.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -12% (up=2, down=3)