(MAX) MediaAlpha - Overview

Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Internet Content & Information | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 481m USD | Total Return: -15.3% in 12m

Insurance Leads, Customer Acquisition, Ad Exchange, Digital Marketing
Total Rating 20
Safety 21
Buy Signal -0.11
Internet Content & Information
Industry Rotation: -6.6
Market Cap: 481M
Avg Turnover: 4.68M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility59.7%
VaR 5th Pctl9.05%
VaR vs Median-10.4%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Rel. Str. IBD11
Rel. Str. Peer Group31.7
Character TTM
Beta0.500
Beta Downside0.734
Hurst Exponent0.612
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD67.70%
CAGR/Max DD-0.02
CAGR/Mean DD-0.04
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MAX over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.05, "2021-06": 0.01, "2021-09": 0.16, "2021-12": -0.05, "2022-03": -0.18, "2022-06": -0.28, "2022-09": -0.23, "2022-12": -0.63, "2023-03": 0.14, "2023-06": -0.26, "2023-09": 0.06, "2023-12": -0.05, "2024-03": 0.19, "2024-06": 0.06, "2024-09": 0.33, "2024-12": 0.4527, "2025-03": 0.45, "2025-06": 0.44, "2025-09": 0.4, "2025-12": 2.481, "2026-03": 0.3,
Last SUE: -0.05
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MAX over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 173.588, 2021-06: 157.353, 2021-09: 152.749, 2021-12: 161.584, 2022-03: 142.599, 2022-06: 103.449, 2022-09: 89.017, 2022-12: 124.007, 2023-03: 111.63, 2023-06: 84.772, 2023-09: 74.573, 2023-12: 117.174, 2024-03: 126.649, 2024-06: 178.274, 2024-09: 259.133, 2024-12: 300.648, 2025-03: 264.309, 2025-06: 251.622, 2025-09: 306.514, 2025-12: 291.155, 2026-03: 310.004,
Rev. CAGR: 64.22%
Rev. Trend: 95.0%
Last SUE: 0.87
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio -4.0 is critical

Beneish M-Score -1.31 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation

Altman Z'' -5.41 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: MAX MediaAlpha

MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) operates a technology-driven customer acquisition platform focused on the domestic insurance industry. Headquartered in Los Angeles, the company facilitates transactions between insurance carriers and prospective consumers across property and casualty, health, and life insurance verticals.

The business model utilizes a real-time programmatic ecosystem to connect insurance distributors with high-intent shoppers. This performance-based advertising approach allows carriers to optimize their marketing spend by bidding on specific consumer segments rather than purchasing bulk leads. The insurance technology sector increasingly relies on such marketplaces to bridge the gap between traditional underwriting and digital consumer behavior.

For a deeper look at the underlying fundamentals, consider reviewing the comprehensive data available on ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Auto insurance carrier marketing spend recovery drives core revenue growth
  • Regulatory changes in Medicare Advantage impact health vertical transaction volume
  • Carrier loss ratios dictate demand for customer acquisition technology platform
  • Performance marketing efficiency gains influence insurance advertiser budget allocations
  • Macroeconomic interest rate shifts affect consumer demand for new policy quotes
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 39.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -17.13 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 4.49% < 20% (prev 7.29%; Δ -2.80% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 40.3m > Net Income 39.0m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.46 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.8m) vs 12m ago 0.38% < -2%
Gross Margin: 14.89% > 18% (prev 0.16%; Δ 1.47k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 381.5% > 50% (prev 417.7%; Δ -36.14% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.99 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -40.5m / Interest Expense TTM 10.7m)
Altman Z'' -5.41
A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 165.2m - Total Current Liabilities 113.2m) / Total Assets 367.7m
B: -1.28 (Retained Earnings -468.8m / Total Assets 367.7m)
C: -0.14 (EBIT TTM -42.8m / Avg Total Assets 303.8m)
D: -1.18 (Book Value of Equity -468.2m / Total Liabilities 396.8m)
Altman-Z'' = -5.41 = D
Beneish M -1.31
DSRI: 1.88 (Receivables 250.4m/114.8m, Revenue 1.16b/1.00b)
GMI: 1.08 (GM 14.89% / 16.12%)
AQI: 2.36 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.23)
SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.16b / 1.00b)
TATA: -0.00 (NI 39.0m - CFO 40.3m) / TA 367.7m)
Beneish M = -1.31 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of MAX shares?

As of May 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.90 with a total of 580,383 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.62%, over one month by -11.00%, over three months by -10.46% and over the past year by -15.32%.

Is MAX a buy, sell or hold?

MediaAlpha has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MAX.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 5
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MAX price?
Analysts Target Price 13.7 54%
MediaAlpha (MAX) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 480.6m (480.6m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.8906
P/E Forward = 6.9979
P/S = 0.4146
P/B = 250.7108
Revenue TTM = 1.16b USD
EBIT TTM = -42.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -40.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 156.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.17m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 163.5m USD (corrected: LT Debt 156.3m + ST Debt 7.17m)
Net Debt = 137.5m USD (calculated: Debt 163.5m - CCE 26.1m)
Enterprise Value = 618.1m USD (480.6m + Debt 163.5m - CCE 26.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.99 (Ebit TTM -42.8m / Interest Expense TTM 10.7m)
EV/FCF = 15.45x (Enterprise Value 618.1m / FCF TTM 40.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.47% (FCF TTM 40.0m / Enterprise Value 618.1m)
FCF Margin = 3.45% (FCF TTM 40.0m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Net Margin = 3.37% (Net Income TTM 39.0m / Revenue TTM 1.16b)
Gross Margin = 14.89% ((Revenue TTM 1.16b - Cost of Revenue TTM 986.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.06% (prev 15.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.68 (Enterprise Value 618.1m / Total Assets 367.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.56% (Interest Expense 10.7m / Debt 163.5m)
Taxrate = 31.64% (6.50m / 20.5m)
NOPAT = -29.3m (EBIT -42.8m * (1 - 31.64%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.46 (Total Current Assets 165.2m / Total Current Liabilities 113.2m)
Debt / Equity = 85.29 (Debt 163.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.92m)
 Debt / EBITDA = -3.39 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 137.5m / EBITDA -40.5m)
 Debt / FCF = 3.43 (Net Debt 137.5m / FCF TTM 40.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -6.86m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.85% (Net Income 39.0m / Total Assets 367.7m)
RoE = 8.45% (Net Income TTM 39.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 462.0m)
RoCE = -6.93% (EBIT -42.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 462.0m + L.T.Debt 156.3m))
 RoIC = -12.42% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -29.3m / Invested Capital 235.7m)
 WACC = 6.91% (E(480.6m)/V(644.1m) * Re(7.74%) + D(163.5m)/V(644.1m) * Rd(6.56%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 7.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 7.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈50.9m ; Y1≈44.6m ; Y5≈36.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.16 (EV 578.8m - Net Debt 137.5m = Equity 441.4m / Shares 54.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.04 | Revenue CAGR: 64.22% | SUE: 0.87 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=+9.62% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+3.74% | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=-3.60% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=-61.0% | GrowthRev=+13.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.67 | Chg30d=+12.36% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+21.0% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -33%