MAX Stock Analysis: MediaAlpha | NYSE
Internet Content & Information | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 621m USD | 12M Return: 27.1% | US58450V1044 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.95M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.8%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE: MAX) is a technology company that operates a digital customer acquisition platform for the U.S. insurance industry, connecting insurance carriers and distributors across property and casualty, health, and life insurance verticals with potential policyholders. Its business-to-business-to-consumer (B2B2C) model functions within the broader insurance lead-generation and ad-tech space, where carriers increasingly rely on data-driven platforms rather than traditional channels to source new customers. The company was founded in 2014, is headquartered in Los Angeles, California, and completed its initial public offering on the NYSE in late October 2020.
- P&C insurance carrier spend drives platform transaction volume
- Health insurance open enrollment boosts seasonal acquisition revenue
- Direct carrier competition pressures lead generation take rates
| Net Income: 108.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -18.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 3.63% < 20% (prev 1.43%; Δ 2.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 55.2m > Net Income 108.1m |
| Net Debt (156.2m) to EBITDA (21.5m): 7.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (62.8m) vs 12m ago 10.97% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.84% > 18% (prev 15.29%; Δ -0.45% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 405.3% > 50% (prev 421.9%; Δ -16.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 19.2m / Interest Expense TTM 10.6m) |
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 192.7m - Total Current Liabilities 145.7m) / Total Assets 372.2m |
| B: -1.08 (Retained Earnings -403.7m / Total Assets 372.2m) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 19.2m / Avg Total Assets 319.2m) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 51.3m / Total Liabilities 352.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.15 = D |
| DSRI: 1.12 (Receivables 166.9m/129.2m, Revenue 1.29b/1.12b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 15.29% / 14.84%) |
| AQI: 2.17 (AQ_t 0.48 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 1.29b / 1.12b) |
| TATA: 0.14 (NI 108.1m - CFO 55.2m) / TA 372.2m) |
| Beneish M = -2.08 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of October 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.13 with a total of 2,964,514 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.86%, over one month by +50.64%, over three months by +2.39% and over the past year by +27.07%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.40 (which is 5.2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
MediaAlpha has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MAX.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.5 | 2.6% |
P/E Trailing = 7.2346
P/E Forward = 7.0671
P/S = 0.507
P/B = 21.9458
Revenue TTM = 1.29b USD
EBIT TTM = 19.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 21.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 131.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 7.17m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 174.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 156.2m USD (calculated: Debt 174.9m - CCE 18.7m)
Enterprise Value = 777.1m USD (620.9m + Debt 174.9m - CCE 18.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.82 (Ebit TTM 19.2m / Interest Expense TTM 10.6m)
EV/FCF = 14.34x (Enterprise Value 777.1m / FCF TTM 54.2m)
FCF Yield = 6.97% (FCF TTM 54.2m / Enterprise Value 777.1m)
FCF Margin = 4.19% (FCF TTM 54.2m / Revenue TTM 1.29b)
Net Margin = 8.35% (Net Income TTM 108.1m / Revenue TTM 1.29b)
Gross Margin = 14.84% ((Revenue TTM 1.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.10b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.72% (prev 14.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.09 (Enterprise Value 777.1m / Total Assets 372.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.05% (Interest Expense 10.6m / Debt 174.9m)
Taxrate = 21.01% (7.81m / 37.2m)
NOPAT = 15.2m (EBIT 19.2m * (1 - 21.01%))
Current Ratio = 1.32 (Total Current Assets 192.7m / Total Current Liabilities 145.7m)
Debt / Equity = 3.41 (Debt 174.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 51.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.28 (Net Debt 156.2m / EBITDA 21.5m)
Debt / FCF = 2.88 (Net Debt 156.2m / FCF TTM 54.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 21.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 33.85% (Net Income 108.1m / Total Assets 372.2m)
RoE = 503.7% (Net Income TTM 108.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 21.5m)
RoCE = 12.57% (EBIT 19.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 21.5m + L.T.Debt 131.6m))
RoIC = 7.07% (NOPAT 15.2m / Invested Capital 215.0m)
WACC = 6.55% (E(620.9m)/V(795.8m) * Re(7.05%) + D(174.9m)/V(795.8m) * Rd(6.05%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 73.46 | Cagr: 7.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈67.4m ; Y1≈59.1m ; Y5≈47.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 11.52 (EV 766.7m - Net Debt 156.2m = Equity 610.4m / Shares 53.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.78 | Revenue CAGR: 57.52% | SUE: 2.33 | # QB: 3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.51 | Chg30d=+0.45% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-57.3% | GrowthRev=+17.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.68 | Chg30d=+0.40% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+11.3% | GrowthRev=+9.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)